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4001  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Announcement] Block Erupter USB on: May 07, 2013, 01:13:02 PM
If you buy these you are just doing it for love, makes no commercial sense at all.

M

This is why you don't see any big orders.

If it made commercial sense I'd buy many more.

It's a novelty item mostly.

This. If this was made with commercial sense, they could distribute them in traditional channels and sell MILLIONS, while making a HUGE service to Bitcoin.

But, they may have limited production capacity and no easy access to traditional distribution channels - thus, financially this min-max strategy may have a sense for them.

Personally, I would love to see a more ambitious approach for these USB miners.
4002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 12:55:16 PM
How low are you expecting?

Sub $100 for sure. Support at $90, if broken all the way down to $80. Then, we will see.
4003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is this concerning? on: May 07, 2013, 12:48:52 PM
Expected and not concerning at all. Bitcoin needs a sustainable price trend. Bubbling is not sustainable. Thus, this burst/correction is needed and welcomed.

Take this chance to buy more coins.
4004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 12:45:38 PM
Downward pressure still building up after this small dip. We have not seen this week's bottom.
4005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 11:27:18 AM
Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)

Your question is:what makes you think the downward trend is still in place?
The dip to 102 may be the closest it gets to 95 for a good while. It was not really that far away. The market might be remembering all the times traders were left waiting on the platform for the perfect entry point when the train was whistling away down the track...


It's a good point. If bitcoins were to break $100 downward I would probably sell everything. However at the same time, if bitcoins were to break $100 downward and I didn't catch it in time to sell everything, I would buying everything under $100. Hence I think we will hover around $100 for some time, any normal crash is driven by our greedy desire to outfox the the guy next to us and call the bottom. It's not really driven by any technical issues with bitcoin just as it rises back up one we get paranoid that the music has stopped and we won't get our coins back. Its like musical chairs, but with bitcoin. Every round you can either get more coins or lose coins.

It's VERY likely that bitcoins will break $100 donward. Just check all the indicators. It will happen today, maybe tomorrow. I never sell BTC, even if we are going down (it hurts too much to lose them when you are mistaken), but I can guarantee you that I have a lot of bids from $96 all the way down to $32 (not that I hope that the lower ones will get filled, but a man can dream...)
4006  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Husband does not want me to Day Trade BTC but it works well for some, right? on: May 07, 2013, 11:07:10 AM
Quote
Trading is a zero-sum game - you win the BTC somebody has lost.

Repeating this does not necessarily make things truer.

There are many thinkable scenarios, where you would only be able to argue opportunity cost, not real cost, that has been incurred on the loosing side.

Such as you buying something at 100 after a rally from 80, then selling at 120 to someone who just wants to exchange to buy something. Technically, no one here has lost anything. You might argue the seller has lost 20 bucks, but those were opportunity costs.



The majority of people will end up with less BTC than he started with when daytrading Bitcoin. I think you will agree on that.
4007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 10:28:47 AM
I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

We're going down. Bears are bringing in their weapons:

4008  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Husband does not want me to Day Trade BTC but it works well for some, right? on: May 07, 2013, 10:20:52 AM
I do daytrading I never lost once. My technique never sell if you gonna lose. Only sell if you make profits. Just wait for the proper time. I made 20 times my investment in just 3 months.

Exactly.  How CAN you lose when you day trade, unless you bought at $260? Buy it at one price, do not sell it (or dollar-cost-average) until it reaches a price HIGHER.  How is that hard?  Even if its only a $1.20 higher, that is ONE PERCENT gain....in like one or two days. In the REAL markets, you are doing great if you hit 7-9% gains for the YEAR.

Depends on what you consider loosing. Almost nobody looses fiat with Bitcoin. It was at $14 at the beginning of this year. It was at $2 two years ago. If you invested for the first time ever in the last month and a half, maybe you lost some fiat. Otherwise, is just impossible.

That said, daytrade Bitcoin on a regular basis and you will very likely end with LESS Bitcoins you had at the beginning. Yes, you will have more fiat on your Gox account - but if you are not increasing your fiat AND your Bitcoin stash you are loosing big time in my book. At the end, you win this game with more BTC, thinking you are a great day trader just because you earn fiat with a commodity that went x10 in 4 months is just delusional.

I read a lot of newbies saying that is impossible to loose day trading Bitcoin. That reaping up profits is easy as taking a candy from a baby. The ones saying that are just delusional fools. Trading is a zero-sum game - you win the BTC somebody has lost. The ones saying that, are just clueless guys looking their fiat growing at Gox, and they are saying: "wow, I'm a smart-ass trader!". But they know shit. They are loosing BTC in the long term almost for sure, otherwise they won't say something that stupid. And remember you are fighting bots and automated algorithms.

Bitchick: if you want to win this game, forget about selling BTC to buy them back lower. Calling tops and bottoms seems easy - you will get it right ten times in a row, and the 11th time you will make a mistake, price will go up when you expected it to go down, you will wait for the correction a little longer, the correction will not come as you expected, and you will end up with less BTC than you had at the very beginning. You may end up with A LOT less BTC that you had at the beginning. Sure, at first sight your fiat winning will seem untouched and growing, because BTC will still be going up - but you will be loosing.
4009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 10:00:07 AM
For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not any more a train about to leave the station.

Make that: "For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not yet a train about to leave the station."

- But it will be. If not this month, then the next. I called a 1-3 month consolidation in 100-120 area before a supermove up. We are right there even now, 4 weeks after the bubble burst. If I panic buy at 144 meanwhile, it is my own problem.

It has plenty of time to go to sub-$100 in May. Even as of this writing, there is $500k bid volume to 102, which is so pathetic that if I show a wall of 1k coins like I did yesterday, it will crash right here and now. It takes about 45 mins to send the coins.

I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org

We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.

In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.

The fact that Paypal, moneygram, and western union are all "looking at bitcoin" will put pressure on each of them to be the first to pull the trigger for obvious reasons. Once that happens any consolidation period will end abruptly. With the aforementioned pressure, I don't see it taking more than a month or two for one of them to get in the game in one way or another because the advantage of being the first in will be massive.

Then there's the whole China ordeal which may or may not amount to anything spectacular, but if nothing else, will make Bitcoin even more enticing to entrepreneurs and established large businesses.

my mBTC.02

All those news are not so important IMO. People just give them too much attention, but it's much more important a real growth in the economy surrounding Bitcoin (products and services) and an improvement on the infrastructure (we need professional exchanges, MtGox is a joke… And we really much need EASIER ways to buy your first Bitcoins).

Yes, of course, if Paypal embraces Bitcoin that means a HUGE growth in both the real economy and the infrastructure surrounding Bitcoin. It seems perfect… But is not. IMO that won't happen. Bitcoin can only kill Paypal, and they know it. They may be looking into it to create their own crypto currency, but there's no way they will embrace the Bitcoin.

Then, about China… Yes, that exposure can help bringing more investors in the very short term. But they will be cautious. As you have seen in 2011 and just a few months ago, real news is when Bitcoin its been consolidated for X time (like it was during all 2012), and then starts to grow steadily and in a sustainable way. Then, it breaks ATH, and the madness start: everybody wants to jump the train as they want to see their fiat go x10, or x100…. There you have the parabolic growth, the bubble… And then the crash, but to a much higher bottom than in the previous bubble. Wash, rinse and repeat.

Remember: when we will go past $266 after a consistent and sustainable growth, that's the news that will trigger again the BTC madness.
4010  Economy / Speculation / Re: The short term bear case on: May 07, 2013, 09:48:48 AM
Well, some people play percentage game and they rather have 10k coins than 5k. Cause the former means a place among the 80 wealthiest, and the latter is only a G160 ticket  Cheesy

Yes I get that... although if you ( for example ) have 1000 coins,  I don't think you will care.  Thats why I don't get you playing around onthis forum about buying at 80, 86 , 95 or 120. Even at your lowest estimate of 100K per coin, who cares if one made 99,915  or 98,980 $ per coin?.   If one believes in a more moderate estimate of around 1000$, well... then there is more reason to care.

Don't say you get that and then prove that you don't.  Cheesy

Only about 1.5M coins are in fiat-denominated hands like yours. Almost 10 million coins are in coin-denominated hands like mine. I do care if I earn 10,000BTC with skilful trading before it shoots up, but I don't care a shit whether USDBTC will go to $5M or $1M, because both will be unsustainable long term.

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

He means that he counts it as a good day if he ends up with more Bitcoin than he started with even if the dollar value of his Bitcoin holding has fallen.

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible. 

I perfectly understand it. I care about my BTC position - I really don't care that much about USD/BTC exchange rate. I follow it just to decide when I should buy more, so I can get the best amount of BTC from my limited fiat. But at the end of the day, when I look at my BTC stash, I never say "wow, my $10,000 investment now is worth $100,000". I almost never multiply my stash of BTC x the exchange rate, I just look at the amount of BTC.

It's obvious to me that this is not the case for 99% of people, which think about their BTC stash in fiat terms.
4011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 09:44:20 AM
Both ask sum and bid sum creeping up, the latter faster than the former. Interesting situation. Bulls vs. bears battle ahead.

4012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 09:41:08 AM
For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not any more a train about to leave the station.

Make that: "For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not yet a train about to leave the station."

- But it will be. If not this month, then the next. I called a 1-3 month consolidation in 100-120 area before a supermove up. We are right there even now, 4 weeks after the bubble burst. If I panic buy at 144 meanwhile, it is my own problem.

It has plenty of time to go to sub-$100 in May. Even as of this writing, there is $500k bid volume to 102, which is so pathetic that if I show a wall of 1k coins like I did yesterday, it will crash right here and now. It takes about 45 mins to send the coins.

I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org

We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.

In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.
4013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 08:10:35 AM
I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

of course we are
4014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 08:07:58 AM
It's Tuesday, banks are open and we're still in a slow decline. Very bad sign if you ask me .

Good sign. Cheap coins ahead.

And don't fool yourself with the "new money" thing. That was valid during the bubble, as more and more more people was attracted by the incredible (and unsustainable) growth. Just check Google trends. Just look around. New money stopped pouring in at the speed we had earlier. The new money that pours in, expects cheaper coins. The bubble bursted. For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not any more a train about to leave the station.

No worries. This is good. Real economy and infrastructure needs to improve, is not yet ready for prime time.

Before reaching ATH again we will have cheap coins, and then a relatively long period of consolidation (as per 2012).
4015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 07, 2013, 07:15:51 AM
So, we're going to see 95 again?

Yes, we are. Very soon. Winter is coming  Grin
4016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why most people here are happy to see bear coming and price drop? on: May 06, 2013, 11:10:14 PM
If we hit double digits again - I'll pawn stuff to buy more btc if I have to.

Almost the same here. At least if we go under $50. Then it's time to sell the car, computer, fridge etc.

Because of this is unlikely that we will go again below $50
4017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 11:00:38 PM
Looks weird that people keep buying below 110$ over and over again. I dont think the dump is by all means over, 100$ will be visited and possible breached

These coins are all cheap. Leave the penny fighting for someone else Wink

Well, increasing your stash at $80 or $120 is not exactly "penny fighting"

And we will se cheaper prices than $110 soon enough
4018  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Husband does not want me to Day Trade BTC but it works well for some, right? on: May 06, 2013, 10:57:02 PM
It will be $250.00 by June just be patient.

 Grin  I so hope you are right!  I keep thinking it should move that direction.  

The question then is do we sell half our stash and then keep the other half and then have no money risked in our BTC?  Then if it drops again buy more?  That is what we are considering.  The only thing I don't like about that is that we end up with less BTC and if it does skyrocket, we will be upset with ourselves for doing that.  It is hard to decide.

Just take the money you can afford to lose, send it to an exchange and set your bids. Use that money to buy more coins when it's cheaper, less coins when it's more expensive.

Do not sell coins, one mistake and you end with less BTC - that's not how you win this game. Just hold on them, and let's see where we are in x years.

Just don't put money you cannot afford to loose, its too risky and you know it so you will end making mistakes driven by emotions.
4019  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Official CedarTec Topic - New ASIC [Scam?] on: May 06, 2013, 10:39:15 PM
I want to believe that there's no one fool enough to actually have sent coins to this obvious scam.

The only thing worth posting in this thread is the SCAM word in huge bold letters.

Stop feeding the scammer.
4020  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 10:05:12 PM
Everybody is hoping for cheap coins but this is very bad for Bitcoin with the price moving like this. We'll see if the people in China that downloaded the client are willing to buy in a declining market.

Exactly. I don't get it how keep act like it's a party when the price drops. It's bad.
You can buy a few coins 20 bucks cheaper. Really, that's worth potentially killing the coin?
Don't you think you'll make more if we actually let this coin grow to 300 dollars and then slowly sell them if you're so desperate for money.
There is nothing good about seeing it crash over and over again. Really nothing.


Unfortunately the majority of the people in Bitcoin don't care about Bitcoin. They just want to make quick money. Preferably by sitting on the ass, holding coins and wait for others to make developments so they can become more valuable.

Bitcoin isn't volatile because of speculators, it's volatile because there isn't enough financial instruments built to stabilize it AND because the market cap is still very, very, VERY small.

People buying bitcoins are also giving the capital required to build more infrastructure for it.

And personally, I accept bitcoins in my business since 2012. What are you doing for Bitcoin?

Thanks.

People complaining about the effects of speculation on, wait for it, the speculation forum. Seriously.

Bitcoin is and it will always be volatile.
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