Especially since Gemini, for example, pre-credits your buy.
Essentially, you say "transfer X $$", then these $$ (up to a substantial sum) are available for btc purchase immediately, which is very convenient.

How about this scenario:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52567789#msg52567789


could be 7.7K instead of 7.2K, then $46-50K instead of 54-64K.
Re @majormax opinion...new pattern would not fit S2F.
Maybe S2F is incorrect, but why when bitcoin, gold and silver all match it (predicted values)?
S2F says: 50K-100K value after halving.

I am not sure why would the green phase be so abortive in this bull run.
In 2016-2017 it lasted for more than a year.

In other words: I doubt that we are in the "orange" stage, but who knows.
Maybe, we are front-running the whole trend while we were behind the "true" trend in 2015-2016.

bump, price stays.

Basically, it is half a price of used APW3 since you can run two typical S9 on this one vs only one on APW3.

For those not familiar with this aspect of TA: the bottoming of RSA does not, unfortunately, mean that the price stops going down. Check the RSI vs price in Dec 2018.

IMHO, going down another 500-800 points is equally possible to gaining 1K points.
BTW, unless we gain 8K from here, "anonymous" prediction for October (16K) would be wrong.

Is there actual evidence for this correlation? A genuine question.
At the moment, let me be doubtful.

A few points:

1. Mayer multiple is at 0.97 (close enough to 1 which might still indicates a bull market). In bear it could go as low as 0.5
https://mayermultiple.info/

2. S/F model current predicted value is $9016/8276
https://digitalik.net/btc/

All and all 8000 is kind of important for short-mid term direction.

Undecided on whether I should buy more here or not.

EDIT: let's play a game...what if 2019-2020 will have a similar config to two-humped 2013.
2013 (heavy metal rhythm): 12 to 250, down to 65, up to 1160 (within a year)
2019-2020 (something slower): 3100 to 13800, down to, say, 7.2K, up to 54-64K (in two years with half a volatility up and down)

Outside of bitcoin, the explanation about repo-gate from already familiar C. Long:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/09/25/the-real-story-of-the-repo-market-meltdown-and-what-it-means-for-bitcoin/

well, as long as at that time I am not an impatient patient...with a cane.

I wonder where Bob is.
I think that he might have sold a tranche at 11-13K.

I wish that instead of accumulating for two years, then having a two week-one month bull crescendo (2013 or 2017), we would have half and half (flat top). Too much to ask for? For example, if price dynamics literally followed S2F model, I would be very happy indeed.

maybe, by being unjustifiably optimistic .

Thanks. I would believe that we might be following this pattern if we rip off to 9300-9400 shortly.
Otherwise, it would be just a bounce.

...I am a robot-screw "traffic lights" [they piss me off].

Re btc gyrations: IMHo, this was an interesting event.
I believe that it is connected to repo reinstitution.
Obviously, some biggie is in trouble.
In such 'batten down the hatches" situation, they sell everything they could, including btc.

Think about this: short term rates should be 1.75-2% (in US), yet nobody, but the fed wanted to provide liquidity unless you pay 8-10%.
This is crazy.

Although I bought before at higher, I am not going to deploy any cash right now. We might double dip or go lower (7.8-7.9).
Plus, I was busy working to catch 8K, which would have been OK (not much difference from 7.8-7.9).

Still, having bad vibes about the whole market.

To philosophize a little:

I don't understand joe-schmoe thinking..  0% on savings he is OK, -1% he is OK, maybe -5-10% later..he is still Ok.
This is true for both people with and without college education.
Debt through wazoo..still OK.
I am curious as to what might change this thinking IF anything.
Perhaps critical thinking is simply gone from the vast majority of the populace.
If so, we will all sink together.

BTW, for the record, I never thought of bakkt being anything significant, at least at first.

....the end of the year arrived sooner than expected...
https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract/data?
That said, I doubt that many here would be trading on Bakkt.

bakkt traded a contract?

2017?
We are much earlier in a 4-year cycle (still 2015ish-like).
That said, I am maintaining some cash to buy at 8K or slightly below. 7.8-7.9K would be perfect.
If not, that's OK too. Cash is cash, lot's of ways to use it

I did not know that V8 is into dildo sales/transportation...I kid, i kid

Er...if you lost most of your capital it would be difficult to gain it back even with leverage.
I almost zeroed one brokerage account (too much leverage during 2001-2002 internet crash).
It's balance is still relatively low even after I tried to rebuild it. That's why I don't use leverage anymore (got a lifetime lesson).
I am glad that most of my fiat capital is in non-margin retirement accounts plus home equity (which I also don't touch).
If I miss out by being non-leveraged, so be it.