true, noones done beanie babies before, or dot com stocks when it came out, bubble mentality ' noones done this so its going to work', nthis is very entertaining for me, not a question if its going to burst, jsut when
I know what you're thinking, 'cause right now I'm thinking the same thing. Actually, I've been thinking it ever since I got here: Why oh why didn't I mine more Bitcoins? Nkspace is a noob. He is thinking "why I did not buy BTC in 2010?" Who doesn't think this? Me, cause I did buy bitcoins in 2010. I think "why did I sell bitcoins at $15?" and then i answer myself "because my wife told me to" Man. Teach your wife. You never sell BTC. You buy BTC with your spare cash. More when they are cheaper, less when they are more expensive. But you don't sell them. Well, if you can double your initial fiat investment selling 5% of your total stash, go ahead, I won't stop you. But no more than that. Just hold on the mofos for the long haul. This is the way you play this game. Learn from Vladimir  |
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i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.
Man, if Smoothie is turning bearish is really time to get greedy and buy buy buy Seriously, I'd expect a decline to at least $70ish - I don't think we will break $50, and if we do it will be only for a few moments. Anyhow, I prepared myself for this situation, meaning that I'm prepared and eager to buy all the way down. There is a huge difference compared to 2011, and its that now everybody knows that Bitcoin is here to stay, and the point is when we will have the next "bubble cycle". Thus, I expect the bottom to be much higher compared to 2011 standards, when a lot of people really turned their back on BTC. Come on guys, we are all just speculating about how cheap we can get our coins - everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed. |
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I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one. And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too "Cash-out fiat", wondering when will people cash out in BTC Personally, I always try to increase my BTC stash, that's the only reason I'm actively trading. But I acknowledge that for many people (perhaps the majority investing considerable amounts of $) BTC is just a short to mid term investment to generate fiat profits - thus I know that a lot of them are willing to take their x10 profits very soon after the parabolic growth has stopped. |
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The wall isn't made of a single order, but represents the amount of lemmings willing to get back in for somewhere between 99 and 101.
No, this is a single order. A saw how it was placed in no time. Yeah. It's a single order, look how it went in and out in this bid sum chart:  I'm sure too that this is a ridiculous attempt to take the price up before a dump. No one would place a $2M bid at a single point ($100), to then just push it a 10% higher ($110) just a few hours later. Who is so stupid to think that a $2M order will be filled all at once at a single price point, in a such tiny market? Let's remember that $2M is more than 10% of the total fiat sitting on Gox order book ATM. What a joke, and even more because it's happening on a weekend... What a stupid way to burn money that would be. So yes, the wall is fake, no way it's a guy really willing to buy $2M BTC, this wall belongs to a guy willing to SELL as high as he can. |
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I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one. And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too |
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in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.
... and up, or down? That is the question. for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash. and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ? but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted nope. i will shortly be taking a break from posting analysis altogether, precisely because of shit like this. i don't post so i can crow about it later, i post so we can discuss it. i'm suffering an information loss every single time i post my playbook, so stop it with the backlash. Keep up the good job arepo, a lot of us enjoy your posts and your wonderful analysis. Just don't listen to the critics man, you always provide useful insights. |
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Have you guys consider for a split second that somebody might really want to sell those coins?
Yes, we're considering that somebody is willing to sell coins, and thus placing a fake bid wall to take the price up Also, all this work pushing the price up, then he, according you guys' manipulation theories, is able to sell at higher price. I hate to burst your bubbles, but if removes the wall there is no market depth to execute his selling orders at whatever prices he has been trying to push to.
There are already $740k in front of his wall (from $110 to $114.6), that's a nice depth, enough to dump + BTC6,000 significantly higher than when the bid wall did not exist.. And there is another $1M sitting between the $110 wall to $105. That depth is built around the wall that creeped up from $100 to $110 after a crash to $80. Also, if you have more money than what is necessary to manipulate a market, then you can only go for peanuts anyway. Market manipulations usually have strategic/political goals behind. Sinking a small player, build or destroy confidence on an niche, media access, etc. Manipulating to capitalize doesn't really work, if you are the biggest player then you are the most affected by your manipulation.
Making a 10% or 20% profit because of your successful manipulation is never peanuts, never. You set the trends and make smaller players to follow them. This happens in all the markets - in the bigger "real world" markets you have JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the likes - in BTC an individual can be a "market mover" at this stage. |
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All this manipulation talk is getting boring/old.
Have you guys consider for a split second that somebody might really want to sell those coins?
I'm confused, if this is a manipulation attempt, then, when the manipulator places his selling order, will you guys also say it's a manipulation move? Or is it a legitimate sell?
Also, all this work pushing the price up, then he, according you guys' manipulation theories, is able to sell at higher price. I hate to burst your bubbles, but if removes the wall there is no market depth to execute his selling orders at whatever prices he has been trying to push to.
Also, if you have more money than what is necessary to manipulate a market, then you can only go for peanuts anyway. Market manipulations usually have strategic/political goals behind. Sinking a small player, build or destroy confidence on an niche, media access, etc. Manipulating to capitalize doesn't really work, if you are the biggest player then you are the most affected by your manipulation.
Just my 2 cents.
That wall will either be consumed (even after a couple of moves) or the money will be thrown directly at executable prices driving the market up. I think the chances of it being just removed followed by a price drop, are low.
Can someone who knows more than me please answer this? Zenmario provides the most logical argument for this wall I have read today. i agree with zenmario. 'market manipulation' is usually just large players performing their best action given market conditions. it's just as 'fair' as smaller sums attempting similar tricks on smaller scales. You just don't put a $2M wall on a market so tiny as BTC. If you are really interested in buying $2M of BTC, you buy OTC to secure an exchange rate in order to avoid huge fluctuation, or you simply trade smaller amounts at different price points. Otherwise you are a crazy fool who burns his money. You are really implying there is a guy that was hoping to buy $2M in BTC at $100, then he saw price go up and he placed his $2M a 10% higher, then tomorrow he will probably place it a 20% higher... No way. And these are no smaller guys acting, there is a $2M wall that appeared suddenly on the order book (blockchained) and that moved from $100 to $110 pushing the price up. There is really no way that a guy suddenly received his $2M at Gox on a Sunday and decided to place it's hugenbid $5 below spot to see if it gets filled... And all of this after a major crash. Zenmario: you are serious about saying that is unlikely that the wall gets removed if the price goes down? Man, huge walls vanish into thin air every day as price approaches them, and this happens both on the bid and the ask side. Just check what happened before the weekend, only wall that resisted was at $80, all the others weren't eaten, 80% of them just vanished |
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Wait till the owner of that $2M that are now sitting on $110 dumps his coins and remove the wall.
On Monday you will see how the price goes up... And then down
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Don't think this is happening. No way he is dumping his coins on a Sunday, I would wait until at least Monday, and I won't be surprised if the dump happens on Wednesday. On a weekday that wall has a real chance to trigger a rally.
BTC market is really a joke, $2M usd and a few thousands coins are really enough to move the market at your will, I guess that's why we have so many traders posting how "fun" is BTC when compared to "real" stock markets and "mainstream" currency trading
If you know simply math then 1. 11M btc exists 2. if somebody can buy 15k btc then there is NOT more than 11M/15k = 734 traders trading this amount (700 traders are not mainstream) . . . 3. 80% bitcoiners hold bitcoin for long -> there are maximum 74 traders what can afford sell 15k btc Yet 15K coins are less than $2M, thus BTC is so tiny it's still a peanut... It's very easy and cheap to become a fundamental force of the market, look at the Winklevoss, two guys just bought 1% of the actual BTC supply for an amount of fiat that for them means nothing. Extrapolate that to the total amount of USD circulating. Crazy shit. BTC it's still in a very early stage,. |
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Oh right, walls...
So, about the 2 millions wall, when is it going to be lifted?
It would be nice to see someone drunk and playful enough to put a BTC300k wall just $5 above the $2M wall, just to test who's penis is bigger But it's a pity, because there are many many many many many more guys with $2M than with BTC300K  |
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Rampion is correct.
Asicminer claims altruistic goals of sharing hashrate and expansion of BTC.
I call bullshit.
Very few people will share these with family and friends at 2BTC.
At cost + reasonable profit margin, every one of my family members with a PC would have received one this Christmas.
Imagine if everyone currently into Bitcoin would do something similar.
Imagine millions of folks first hearing about BTC by receiving such a cool little gift.
"You mean this thing makes money?"
The only folks that can say that now are AM shareholders.
I understand your reasoning and I can feel what you are saying. But I don't think ASICMINER is taking the wrong decision, in fact I'm sure they are getting a very good return with their strategy, without having to commit to huge production volumes and avoiding entering complicate tasks as looking for worldwide distribution in traditional channels. But I still think about the big picture, on how huge could be to see grandmas all over the world asking "you are really saying this thing generates enough money to buy bread every day?", and I'm sure that a mini USB miner could be the BEST way to spread the BTC word all over the world, it could be really HUGE. Unfortunately, 2 BTC per piece (for wholesalers ) is too high to envision such a widespread adoption - but still it's a first step and I can only congratulate Friedcat for achieving that. I always dreamt about such a tool because it's incredible potential, and now it's a reality |
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I'd prefer it if they nudge the 120 wall first... I need to sell before I can buy.
I think that whoever is putting the wall at $110 is trying to get the price up to $120-$125 so he can get rid of the last dump of coins he bought at a higher price before the value started going down. We should see some movement as soon as we get to a new high point. ($120 or $125 or whatever it might be) - As the price rises to ~$119 he is going to move the wall from $110 to $115 in order to put even more buying pressure on the market, so that he can get the price over his desired value. It's not going to make it that far, though. People are becoming wise to the plan. The guy is probably going to get impatient soon if he's been waiting for the price to hit $120 all day long. He might dump his coins at $117 already. Btw. 2 and a half minutes of Goxic lag right now. Don't think this is happening. No way he is dumping his coins on a Sunday, I would wait until at least Monday, and I won't be surprised if the dump happens on Wednesday. On a weekday that wall has a real chance to trigger a rally. BTC market is really a joke, $2M usd and a few thousands coins are really enough to move the market at your will, I guess that's why we have so many traders posting how "fun" is BTC when compared to "real" stock markets and "mainstream" currency trading |
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That wall is so crazy that it has to be part of a pump&dump scheme. Otherwise, it's just too crazy. Who the heck is going to put a $2M bid on a single point, just below the spot price, in such a tiny market as BTC? I bet is someone pushing the price up before a massive dump. Interesting situation nevertheless.
At the same time, ask sum creeping down - let's see how real is that bid wall, it would be nice to test it.
We probably can't imagine some of who are involved in BTC. I think that is a fair statement. For all we know a big buyer (VC) steps up, if that sell is removed first, and just purchases the $2M in bitcoins without making the price move up. Think about that. Great opportunity to buy lots at one time. If they pull it, we might just run on through it, actually that is my feeling anyway. I really don't think the large sell order will stay, just as the earlier large bid at 100 (?) got pulled. For some reason, trading today and yesterday is like a movie... For me it's clear than the large bid at $100 was just moved to $110. I think nobody would put all his money on one spot unless he has peanuts - and $2M is no peanuts in the Bitcoin market. You would place bids all over a certain price range, otherwise you are just wittingly pushing the price up, destroying in fact the opportunity to buy below the spot price. It's pure logic: all the buyers will place bids above your wall to be able to buy something, all the sellers will slide their asks up... So, it's clear you are just driving the price up, which someone would normally do before a dump. Just remember that $2M dollars is MORE than 10% of the TOTAL fiat in the Gox order book, that's a HUGE amount to put in a single spot, and its pointless unless you have no intention to buy and in fact your intention is to sell. |
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I think that ... BNu1hLYzku3Cw5GfQwEjVgF6F38L6jh1Ge => 60 BTB (Integer only, rounded)
(1 person)##################### Block 119 ############################ BDGMkA9aky6DDbzXrUP6C7FnX13Yr3Xdxd => 71BTB
BRJWpP3oaNGAKLCCEbUbrkQgUFteepoX94 => 82BTB
BHWhNERMMyjqNgsMjjvX6dFqjoRbikyKpC => 52BTB
B9EMvT7MrKCqcZvBtVrckPF6r6azMSWGgE => 275BTB
BkvC5MojhFX9UVDbMhEcpS2T1WYDxHRkCP => 248BTB
BCFweavyA6oRGQLRixV7ZeZggSr2iGh8bx => 257 BTB
BjtranN8RvGm26eZqVCWiyFPn3jz1wsuSj =>42BTB
BLjVzfoq9vBrpZMzn4LYKgT5Vh1KyD5eNd =>84BTB
B9ENnvmvbRSwrwdcdFvHSeszgdYpk4xmBx=>36 BTB
Total 1147 BTB
(9 persons)##################### Block 542 ############################ BFYidcbqJNxNVRmFFhHG5tZoohsVRsFy8f =>2BTB
B8vs8mZkFWaAAocyAv9j8fFCqKMmbDoWat=>1BTB
B7hrYGz5o2kSkKxjstN3z2SzHYZXgsrWa2 =>2BTB
BHViqs6amphUspyD7oE4wW47cLYLLAvrmy=>20BTB
BChrbHy6S5oYjytVrzX3eUqtYMuvx6jmZV=>27BTB
B8rPx18D9oRMpb3ZzcEaC4rHRskTf4wp7Y=>8BTB
BD1hqmPn1ZThE3ToLYC1vWsGPHxMXSQyoG=>2BTB
BlbYfYbBkyXTWFti35x97VVGAzq6RPwKpw=>2BTB
BELQPn3k5AXRAZHk7pdpUxPNBVPo3R9srd=>2BTB
BALAdCqihoX9xnJCDt5zpZ7QMx7PVLCBuN =>12BTB
BLUKKXsEuFGVmG3wjAfn44MwPhGyVWQGxS =>15BTB
BKVJ8MzecxcLbpBfagYzrSskan6F2w3ZT5=>135BTB
B5vpxGk7XQWyN1pjjjQTxMchk4AkxDmgsn=>14BTB
BPeSkaMGQ8bcMKJ1mR384idj5amCkWdjXH =>18BTB
Total 260 BTB
(14 persons)##################### Block 1000 ############################ Total ~1407 BTB Total money supply now 2636. Implies ~ (½) total money supply earned by 10 persons in all the time (not 4 hours, 4 hours to block 1000). And this not includes "stake power" of 5%. http://btb.cryptocoinexplorer.com/Nice scam coin, no go and buy tons of them, so you make a handful of people rich why you are left holding the bag. |
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Cute.
The correct price is what people will pay.
I'm not buying at this price because I expect the price will drop a lot.
It also depends on how many they can produce. They claim to be able to churn out thousands quick. I'd buy 2 at 2BTC, maybe 50 at 1BTC and the 300 batch at 0.5BTC. So, depending on how much are their production costs, they might be maximising profits at cheaper prices rather than at more expensive prices. Of course, it also depends on the demand from everybody else. It's not just me. At 2BTC it's hardly profitable if at all, people would get a few just for the novelty and to be able to say they're mining. But at a competitive price they'd sell many thousands in no time. So, can they really produce tens of thousands per month? if so, then 2BTC is not a good pricing as they will only sell a fraction of that. Just wait and see. Maybe they really cannot produce so many. This. At $40 these gadgets could be distributed MASSIVELY all over the world. In supermarkets, kiosks, convenience stores, etc - by MILLION units. It could be huge both for ASICMINER and for Bitcoin in general. But for that, you need a) the ability to enter the appropriate distribution channels (I'd be able to do that) and b) the resources to produce the goods massively in a timely manner. |
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That wall is so crazy that it has to be part of a pump&dump scheme. Otherwise, it's just too crazy. Who the heck is going to put a $2M bid on a single point, just below the spot price, in such a tiny market as BTC? I bet is someone pushing the price up before a massive dump. Interesting situation nevertheless. At the same time, ask sum creeping down - let's see how real is that bid wall, it would be nice to test it. |
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I feel so sorry for those guys that were waiting for 70. I feel even more sorry for those guys that are now waiting for 105.
i waited and am still waiting for 70, if we never get there, oh well. Why on earth do you think we will go back to 70 any time soon? I don't need soon. By soon I mean 2015 Yes I was hinting at the next bubble burst, but you are probably right, I doubt the bottom of the next bubble will be 70. I guess what I meant really was that we simply are not going to see 70 again in my opinion. I think since 50 we've had an uptrend, higher lows and higher highs. If in 2015 BTC is worth 70$.. Well, I don't think rpietila 300k are realistic, but, expect a 70$ in two years is pretty bearish. I would say 300$ as normal easily. Well to be more clear I was looking for low 70's. And yes, we might not ever get there again. But in 2 or 3 months? Maybe. I saw the 32$ to 2$ That took months. True, but this is truly something that cannot be compared to a traditions currency, stock, protocol, technology, etc. However, I'm not saying you are wrong. Government intervention might take it down. It depends on the government. Imagine the US is against it but the rest of the world is for it... On the other hand, the China thing has just started. It can shoot to $1000 and then come back down to $70. We shouldn't get attached here. We are really taking part in one of the worlds biggest experiments. Since BTC is anti-fragile, I'd say the Universe is on our side. Realistically, BTC is not about getting rich, it is about a new form of money. And, if it is successful, you will only need 1. Think about that... IAS I'm in a win win here, btc goes down, i get more btc btc goes up, i get Ferrari man, i'm in that kind of situation too - everything that will happen is good not matter what. But honestly, I'd rather buy more cheap BTC than spend the money in silly things (no offense taken) |
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I have a feeling that goat is right. It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!  Don't think so. Anyhow, your prediction skills are state of the art, man. |
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