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4261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 10:21:26 PM

Any product that can move two tons of mass at 70mph for 200 miles is going to react poorly to being shot by a high power firearm. And mistakes happen all the time with regular cars, we have simply learned to accept and balance the risk.

As for autopilot, just like in a plane the pilot has final responsibility for the aircraft. The driver has final responsibility for the car. Power steering and power brakes make the job easier but if you can't stop the car without either you should not be driving. Same with autopilot.

That tesla driver's family should pay for the damage to the truck and the cost of mopping up the blood.

Tesla advertises their system as FSD (full self driving), which to me is BS.
They paid up for almost identical 2016 incident and will pay up for this one as well.
For me: I decided to stay away from Tesla. Too little car for too much moola. I was never interested in FSD.
4262  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 09:41:10 PM

In US in a larger, but not most expensive city, you have to have $3mil minimally to maintain a middle class lifestyle while not working.

I heard that in posh areas of San Fransisco you would be lucky to get this for £1m.

image clipped

Not in Sanfran, but those are (900K-1mil, small, but OK to live in):
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/?searchQueryState={%22pagination%22:{},%22mapBounds%22:{%22west%22:-122.5751212973633,%22east%22:-122.29153670263673,%22south%22:37.63662788292032,%22north%22:37.9136954367416},%22usersSearchTerm%22:%22san%20francisco%22,%22regionSelection%22:[{%22regionId%22:20330,%22regionType%22:6}],%22isMapVisible%22:true,%22mapZoom%22:12,%22filterState%22:{%22price%22:{%22min%22:900000,%22max%22:1000000},%22monthlyPayment%22:{%22min%22:3308,%22max%22:3675}},%22isListVisible%22:true}

But it's a picture of a brick toilet (shithouse). Who wants to live in a brick shithouse?

I dunno, Eric Cartman, perhaps.
Or, he will rent it out at $10K/mo as a 'cozy, but nice place for deep thinkers'.
4263  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 09:38:13 PM

You must be joking.

>$1m net worth is upper lower lower middle class.

>$10m net worth is upper upper lower middle class.

>$20m net worth is lower lower upper middle class.

>$50m net worth is lower lower upper class.

>$100m net worth is upper upper class.

>$1000m net worth is upper upper upper class.



Sorry to barge in, but it is not a valid classification, afaik.
Here is a much better one:

https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/clients/understanding-the-five-categories-of-wealth



That's not valid. Here's a much better classification based on Homer Simpson's description of his family as "upper lower middle class" and Lisa's description of her family as "upper lower lower middle class".

https://www.vox.com/2016/9/6/12752476/the-simpsons-homer-middle-class

Ah, got it. Solid.
4264  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 09:29:12 PM

In US in a larger, but not most expensive city, you have to have $3mil minimally to maintain a middle class lifestyle while not working.

I heard that in posh areas of San Fransisco you would be lucky to get this for £1m.

image clipped

Not in Sanfran, but those are (900K-1mil, small, but OK to live in):
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/?searchQueryState={%22pagination%22:{},%22mapBounds%22:{%22west%22:-122.5751212973633,%22east%22:-122.29153670263673,%22south%22:37.63662788292032,%22north%22:37.9136954367416},%22usersSearchTerm%22:%22san%20francisco%22,%22regionSelection%22:[{%22regionId%22:20330,%22regionType%22:6}],%22isMapVisible%22:true,%22mapZoom%22:12,%22filterState%22:{%22price%22:{%22min%22:900000,%22max%22:1000000},%22monthlyPayment%22:{%22min%22:3308,%22max%22:3675}},%22isListVisible%22:true}
4265  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 08:53:47 PM

You must be joking.

>$1m net worth is upper lower lower middle class.

>$10m net worth is upper upper lower middle class.

>$20m net worth is lower lower upper middle class.

>$50m net worth is lower lower upper class.

>$100m net worth is upper upper class.

>$1000m net worth is upper upper upper class.



Sorry to barge in, but it is not a valid classification, afaik.
Here is a much better one:

https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/clients/understanding-the-five-categories-of-wealth

Bitcoin OGs are "High Asset, Low Cash Flow" Wealth.
Many/some of them are probably "Under the Radar" category.

Upon btc reaching 100K OGs would probably seek to transition from "High Asset, Low Cash Flow" to "High Asset, High Cash Flow".
Maybe this is when staking coins would surge, or, maybe, this is when OGs would start buying apartments en masse.

Another classification: $1-3 mil affluent; $3-10mil wealthy; above $10mil-rich.
In US in a larger, but not most expensive city, you have to have $3mil minimally to maintain a middle class lifestyle while not working. i guess you can call such person as wealthy enough not to worry about earning a living. Not really rich, though. Ronaldo earns 800K with one instagram endorsement post. Shaq earns 60mil/year by doing commercials. That's a high cash flow, lol.
4266  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 05:14:08 AM
What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?


nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.


Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).

In btc right now is a bit too many unknown unknowns to simply stack satoshis, IMHO, but if it goes parabolic right here, I would be among those who simply rejoice.
4267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 04:40:13 AM
What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?


nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

We should see a dump in some BTC difficulty soon.

If/when it does, I'd 'guess' you will see a drop of 20% or some such.


IMHO, it is not going to happen since Bitmain is selling anything they can lay their hands on.
4268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2019, 01:41:08 AM
Last time we went from roughly $1K to $20k.
I would say that $50K is a minimal expectation IF the cycles continue the up down pattern, which is always an unknown.
I would not be surprised by $200K, but would not plan for it as far as seriously laying out what to do if and when.
4269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2019, 11:33:48 PM
Hash rate follows price.  


Only in a very general sense and based on just 2-3 examples so far.
In 2011 bear hash rate declined (at the very end).
In 2014-2015 hash rate flattened, not really declined.
In 2018, hashrate declined (at the very end).

In all three cases observing flattening and/or declining hashrate and THEN buying based on this alone would be very profitable almost immediately following the decline/flatlining of the hash rate.

What Woo is saying: hashrate declining and flatlining is a good btc buy indicator.
What you (HM) are saying is essentially this: hashrate is not an indicator aka price decline itself is a bullish indicator.
Maybe it is correct too, in the final analysis.

Someone posted before that, paradoxically, when btc drops below one of the long term averages (I forgot which one, could be 200d or 50wk), then, historically, it is bullish and not bearish indicator while in stocks it is mostly a bearish indicator.

4270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2019, 08:56:25 PM
Rate cut had little effect, but the announcement of new tariffs on China most certainly did.
I don't particularly like the fact that we are now correlating with gold, though.

Overall, we should have been at $1tril already.
Not sure why most financial managers are asleep at the wheel on this.
As Pomp says: "Get off zero".
4271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2019, 05:42:28 PM
The SEC will start to mine some btc soon...   Grin

The SEC Set To Begin Running Bitcoin and Ethereum Nodes

The US Securities and Exchange Commission is looking for quotes from contractors who will run the Ethereum and Bitcoin nodes for them.

What is the motivation behind the move?

Moving forward, the contractors will have to make additions of new blockchains as the SEC requires. The SEC has, however, not given any valid reason as to why it wants to operate its own nodes. The only explanation the agency has provided is stating that the objective is to support monitoring risk, compliance enhancement as well as to inform SEC policymaking on digital assets.

The SEC will ramp up its analytics to aid its blockchain complaisance investigations and monitoring. In essence, they have stated that the subscription will collect blockchain data from the various hosted nodes instead of offering the data through blockchain explorers.

https://cryptoiq.co/the-sec-set-to-begin-running-bitcoin-and-ethereum-nodes/

They will spam everyone who makes decent size txs; remember that 1-100 sat spam few years ago.
That was also "monitoring", I guess.
4272  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Number 9! Ninth altcoin thread. Back to the moon Baby! on: July 30, 2019, 11:36:00 PM
Part of what is wrong  is simple transfers of coin out of coinbase.

Coinbase does not know where the coin goes so they  show it as a cap gain or cap loss.

but if you moved it to your core wallet it is nothing a wash and coinbase reported the transfer as a liquidation thus causing a cap gain or loss.


I still think that it is coinbase fault as transfer out should not be a liquidation by default.
If I send btc to coinbase, do they consider it a BUY?
If yes, then it is ridiculous and a REALLY bad accounting standard.

Example: Say, I send 1 btc to coinbase when the price is 15K. Now I am withdrawing the same 1btc at 9K.
Do they think that it is a $6K loss? If they do, then they are negligent/in error.
4273  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2019, 11:09:42 PM
Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.
4274  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 29, 2019, 11:59:10 PM
IMO iLOVEbitcointalkBECAUSEitMAKESmeHAPPY is a strong password and can not be cracked easily with a $200 PC. But I would add at least one number and a special character.

that's what I was thinking, it passes the "correct horse battery staple" test

edit/   ahhh yes, I see this is most adequately covered above, good job guys

I dunno, the above example sound pretty much like a 'brain wallet' that turned out to be very hackable.

It reminds me of a strange coincidence few years ago when in Megamillions (one of two US lotteries) four out of six numbers were those also depicted in a recently screened show "Lost". The end result was that more than 41K people won (much, much higher than expected).

They thought at first that someone hacked the lottery. A funny thing: if just one more number (a fifth one) would be chosen out of the "Lost" numbers, then the lottery would have gone bankrupt as they promised to pay 250K to EVERYONE who wins five numbers (out of six).
250KX41K=$10 billion. EOL.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurleys-lost-numbers-win-fans-mega-millions-lottery-money_n_804723
4275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 29, 2019, 11:10:49 PM
Take part in designing the "satoshi" symbol..it's fun, actually:

https://cryptoslate.com/the-satoshi-the-smallest-unit-of-bitcoin-is-getting-its-own-symbol/
4276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2019, 06:56:03 PM
citadeles, citadels...

Bond market is going into a black hole:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/the-black-hole-engulfing-the-world-s-bond-markets-quicktake

What is the end game there?

Difficult to understand/comprehend Max Keizer commented on above by saying that stocks would be "finished" somehow and we would split into 2+98 with 2% living in "citadels":
https://youtu.be/u3ojPk8CQns?t=390

Plus,here is Walter Isaacson telling us that we are about to split into subspecies and it would be difficult to impossible to stop it:
https://airmail.news/issues/2019-7-27/should-the-rich-be-allowed-to-buy-the-best-genes

I feel that all this somehow connects to recent PR moves regarding bitcoin as in "not everyone should be able to get in".

Surely everyone can get into bitcoin, it is just a matter of how much they are able to acquire and at what price and how many of them are going to end up chasing the train, or rocket or whatever combination of vehicles we embark upon in our journey from here to there.

if you curse it enough, many would not want to until it is a too late, at least for appreciation, leaving more for those in the know (or those who have more money).
4277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2019, 04:34:33 PM

tldr; Bitcoin price doesn't just magically rise on its own.  /rant

You quite sure about that Torque?

I mean, I get your point, but golly if it doesn't seem like it sometimes.

Or, maybe, bitcoin is moving toward some kind of it's future "Omega point" (de Chardin).
The path could vary/deviate, but the end result is, perhaps, largely inevitable.
Sometimes, I think that this is the case, while other times the whole situation looks fragile.
4278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2019, 04:14:04 PM
3 Reasons President Trump Is Great For The Bitcoin Price
Trump is great to talk BS
Bitcoin does not give a f**k duck about him

You don't think that directly telling Fed to devalue is bullish for bitcoin?
Apparently, you did not even read an article before responding.
Being bullish or bearish is not a critique or endorsement of the causing entity, just an interpretation of such entity actions as far as direction is concerned.

4279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2019, 04:06:03 PM
An interesting opinion:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2019/07/26/3-reasons-president-trump-is-great-for-the-bitcoin-price/
4280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2019, 03:31:53 AM
citadeles, citadels...

Bond market is going into a black hole:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/the-black-hole-engulfing-the-world-s-bond-markets-quicktake

What is the end game there?

Difficult to understand/comprehend Max Keizer commented on above by saying that stocks would be "finished" somehow and we would split into 2+98 with 2% living in "citadels":
https://youtu.be/u3ojPk8CQns?t=390

Plus,here is Walter Isaacson telling us that we are about to split into subspecies and it would be difficult to impossible to stop it:
https://airmail.news/issues/2019-7-27/should-the-rich-be-allowed-to-buy-the-best-genes

I feel that all this somehow connects to recent PR moves regarding bitcoin as in "not everyone should be able to get in".

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