Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

It's almost as if you're describing a Ponzi scheme.

To dumbass people, bitcoin seems like a Ponzi scheme because they cannot quite understand exactly what a ponzi scheme is.  So, yeah, a simpleton like yourself, who sold all of his bitcoin in the $700 price arena might have some difficulties in his/her/its wishful thinking abilities that have biased his/her/its perceptions to recognize nuances.

what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

It's almost as if you're describing a Ponzi scheme.

This is a cheap objection and you are too smart not to understand why.
I won't indulge in this anymore.

Making me see reality and feel as if I am lacking in self-restraint.    

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[HairyMaclairy]

Hash rate follows price.  

Any attempt to chart hash rate to predict price is self defeating.

[Biodom]

Hash rate follows price.  

Only in a very general sense and based on just 2-3 examples so far.
In 2011 bear hash rate declined (at the very end).
In 2014-2015 hash rate flattened, not really declined.
In 2018, hashrate declined (at the very end).

In all three cases observing flattening and/or declining hashrate and THEN buying based on this alone would be very profitable almost immediately following the decline/flatlining of the hash rate.

What Woo is saying: hashrate declining and flatlining is a good btc buy indicator.
What you (HM) are saying is essentially this: hashrate is not an indicator aka price decline itself is a bullish indicator.
Maybe it is correct too, in the final analysis.

Someone posted before that, paradoxically, when btc drops below one of the long term averages (I forgot which one, could be 200d or 50wk), then, historically, it is bullish and not bearish indicator while in stocks it is mostly a bearish indicator.

[HairyMaclairy]

Buy the macro dips

[HI-TEC99]

This is impressive.
I mean: what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

This.

[JayJuanGee]

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

If you look at previous halvenings, you will see that there is a small bump up in price before the halvening, and a BIGGER rise that tends to come more than 6 months after the halvening.  Of course, we only have two previous cases, so it really is not a good sample size, and there are some schools of thought that this time around might have a bit more of a front-running, meaning that the price boom would come earlier than it did last time.  We should be taking all of those theories with a decently sized grain of salt because momentum is a factor of many events of human behavior so we cannot really know too well, ahead of time, with any kind of precision when the momentum is no longer going to be enough to keep the price going up or if the buying support is able to keep up with the speed of the price rise, that will sometimes grow to out of control levels.. We saw a mini-version of that in June, especially the end of June.. holy fuck..

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

Feeling so "poor" and desperate during these trying times, with a kind of gnawing realization that the no coiners, fence sitters, jonoiv, roach and lambie were correct.   

Jonoiv was a sad one to see, he so quickly turned the corner from this is a fun thing to being R0aches partner in crime and this is all a big ole scam and the boogie men are out to get our moniez.

Even though I had been razzing the fuck out of jonoiv, mostly because of his ongoing arrogance, there is a part of me that feels a bit sorry for those types of gamblers who sold too much too soon and they are just waiting, waiting and waiting for their trade to play out.. which we know may or may not happen.  Bitcoin's exponential growth curve might not allow another revisit of sub $6k prices, so it can be a bit sad for those people who sold all of their coins and they are experiencing a decent amount of stress about whether they should continue to wait or if they should just suck up the loss, at some seemingly reasonable point.

Even though I feel a bit sorry for jonoiv, I still have trouble considering him as a kind of good guy that turned the corner.  He had always been quite bearish and a bit much of a gambler in those bearish directions and lack of hedging towards the possible upside... so in some sense, it can also feel good to see that kind of arrogance and lack of hedging to be punished by the realities of the exponential s-curve adoption, which seems to be quite a powerful phenomenon in bitcoin that nocoiners, fence sitters and shorters seem unable to properly appreciate and to properly hedge for the possible upside

[HI-TEC99]

This is impressive.
I mean: what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

This.

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

We were at three digits before the last one. This time we are at five digits. If we can reach six digits after the next one I'll be happy.

[Biodom]

Last time we went from roughly $1K to $20k.
I would say that $50K is a minimal expectation IF the cycles continue the up down pattern, which is always an unknown.
I would not be surprised by $200K, but would not plan for it as far as seriously laying out what to do if and when.

[jbreher]

just like jbreher currently flies of the government agent rails for certain kinds of references in that direction

....  I think that, for the moment, I have bit off enough personal bashenings in the ad hominem direction. 

Haha. You think?

Go Fuck Yourself, JJG.

[BTC_ISTANBUL]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

[JayJuanGee]

just like jbreher currently flies of the government agent rails for certain kinds of references in that direction

....  I think that, for the moment, I have bit off enough personal bashenings in the ad hominem direction. 

Haha. You think?

Go Fuck Yourself, JJG.

Your coy response is not really providing any kind of meaningful discussion point, so this would be a good time for a commercial break.     Regularly scheduled programming will return at some currently unspecified time, in the meantime, how's your laddering going?

I would like to say that my decision from nearly two weeks ago to incorporate some buying of some extra BTC by cancelling a few of my sub-$4k scheduled laddered buys and incorporating that freed up fiat into my buy ladders had pretty much filled more than my anticipated number of buy orders between  $10,400-ish and $9,200-ish.  Otherwise, I probably would have had fewer buy orders between $10k-ish and $9,200-ish (I had about 7 buy orders fill as opposed to would have had around 5 buy orders).

Of course, I likely bought more bitcoin than I had anticipated and even at higher prices than necessary in the supra $10k arena, but I am still happy with the whole situation, largely because of such extra BTC accumulation (and I did not market buy the BTC at $11k as the BTC price was on Saturday, July 20, the time of the supposed buy campaign), I have therefore been able to subsequently increase my BTC sell quantities too to give me greater sell amounts, but at the same time retaining more BTC, overall.

The theory has not completely played out since, as we recognize, the BTC price has not returned to going up beyond just in small quantities that has so far triggered a couple of my smaller sell orders in the upper $9ks and in the $10,500 arena.

I wonder if you, jbreher, might still be playing with much tighter BTC laddering ranges than me, perhaps?  Maybe even you have spread your increments out a bit larger as compared to what you had been doing in early 2018, no?   

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I'm sure that a lot of BTC HODLers are trembling in their boots upon reading such news, just like I am from the confidence that you inspire, BTC_ISTANBUL.

In other words, seems like another soothsaying doomsday sorcerer is on the scene predicting "down before up."  

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

Surely JSRAW has not denied your version of possible events, yet, either..  because even JSRAW would not mind picking up a few more lil fiends in the 4 digits, so you got that going for you too, BTC_ISTANBUL.  

[HairyMaclairy]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I agree.  This bull trap might run all the way to $300k.  A lot of bitcoin bulls might get caught and be forced to sell part of their stack well above $100k.

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I agree.  This bull trap might run all the way to $300k.  A lot of bitcoin bulls might get caught and be forced to sell part of their stack well above $100k.

Oh gosh, and now you got the hairy_beary with you too.

[Searing]

Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best time to buy in and get exposure to Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1156968533462413313?s=21

I wonder if difficulty will ever start to just somewhat settle especially with node size getting harder and harder to shrink.

We should see a dump in some BTC difficulty soon. There was a lot of ASIC makers who made 50/50 handshake deals with hydro utils in China because of excessive rain

and excess electric. you let us run our outdated or stuff we can't sell for free and we will split the coin with the hydro power you bleed off.

I should google and see if China this summer has started to dry up yet.

If/when it does, I'd 'guess' you will see a drop of 20% or some such.

But people being people it likely will not matter much to BTC difficulty and will pop right back up again, even if my guess is right.

Betting on Moon seems to be the crypto pastime, with ASIC miners as the 'chips'

Brad

[jbreher]

I wonder if you, jbreher, might still be playing with much tighter BTC laddering ranges than me, perhaps?  Maybe even you have spread your increments out a bit larger as compared to what you had been doing in early 2018, no?   

I scale in rough increments to make the percentage similar. Not exact percentage, as I place a premium of not having to put any thought into placing counter-orders. Round numbers makes that easier.

I think about the same as then. I'd need to dig into records to answer with any precision.

[Biodom]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

We should see a dump in some BTC difficulty soon.

If/when it does, I'd 'guess' you will see a drop of 20% or some such.

IMHO, it is not going to happen since Bitmain is selling anything they can lay their hands on.

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

Haahahahahahaha

"Bored", as in you are still waiting for sub $8,500?  We were really close to $9k on a couple of occasions, but you feel good man in regard to waiting for sub $8,500-ish.

Yeah, I don't know, whether the price is going below $9k or not.  Surely, I would not want to be waiting...for that, and we already know that BTC sometimes has a tendency to do what we don't necessarily expect but then also we could be kind of caught in a consolidation that maybe does not satisfy many people.. and just bring boredom from some.

Part of the reason that I am not bored is because I recall just a few short months ago, we had a price that was largely staying below $4k for several months, and it seems almost equally plausible to me that we could have gotten stuck in that price area for another 6 months or so, and that surely would have been frustrating (if not boring).  Being in a BTC price range that is largely bouncing between $9k and $11k remains very interesting to me, in part because I had thought that a sub $4k BTC price was going to be an additional means to continue to purge shit coins, but it seems that some of the purging could still be taking place, but in a bit of a different manner than had been expected... so is this current price action a kind of way to continue to purge shitcoins?  Could be?  could be?  Boring?  

I'm not quite feeling it, even if you, Biodom, have some WO company, in your asserted boredom, and maybe for different reason than you, but I remain not part of that boredom crowd.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1156934579040559104

We are always complaining about the price ..., we are like children, there is no reason to complain, we are doing well.

Good morning, WO,s

[Biodom]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).

In btc right now is a bit too many unknown unknowns to simply stack satoshis, IMHO, but if it goes parabolic right here, I would be among those who simply rejoice.