For Asicminer Gen 3/Rockminer perilously close, yup.
If Antminer S3 is priced at 1 BTC per unit, their 20% of the network hash rate could easily jump to 30% almost overnight with the group buys and retail sales these things will generate.
The S3 will sell like friggin hotcakes, no doubt, cornering the home/mid range miner and probably replace those Antminer S1 farms you see out in the wild.
I agree the RK-BOX is obsolete even before it is released. If Bitmain opens sales on Friday or Saturday the S3 will fly off the shelves. Asicminers only hope is that the S3 goes out of stock quickly.
Well it will need a big price drop to compete.
480/450 = 1.07 watts a hash
390/500 = .78 watts a hash
but if the s-3 sells at 700 usd and the rk-box sells at 500usd it will take a while for the power savings to make the s-3 the better gear.
some quick math .
s-3 9 x 500gh = 4500gh at 700 a pop 9 x 700 = 6300 watts 9 x 390 = 3510 watts
rk-box 10 x 450 gh = 4500gh at 500 a pop 10 x 500 = 5000 watts 10 x 480 = 4800 watts
the case above hash is equal the rk=bx has a 1300 usd price advantage the s-3 has a 1300 watt advantage
1300 watts = 1.3 k watts x 24 hours = 31 k watts a day
at 20 cents that is 6.20 usd a day so it takes 200 days for the s-3 to be better if power is 20 cents a k-watt.
at 15 cents that is 4.68 usd a day so it take 277 days for the s-3 to be better if power is 15 cents a k-watt.
at 10 cents that is 3.10 usd a day so it take 400 days for the s-3 to be better if power is 10 cents a k-watt
so if the rk-box is 500 usd and the s-3 is 700 usd you are better off with the rk-box.right now I have seen the rk-box at 599 from minersource and not seen a price for the s-3 .
Frankly the s-3 appears better but pricing will determine what to buy.
Of course if the rk box is crazy loud or either one works shitty that will be a factor.
so I see that pricing is very important here.