So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin? This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it. https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoinSome have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do. Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services. Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF. Bitcoin tracker one (CXBTF) continues to experience regulator-induced difficulties trading in US despite the fact that is has been trading in Sweden for years already with nary a problem. That vehicle has no premium to NAV in comparison with Barry Silbert 's concoctions that trade with high premiums (GBTC and ETHE). Who said that US regulators play a fair game? Maybe we should ask Bra-Arg game referee? |
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Being 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021 equals being 100% Confident Bitcoin Price is $75,000 by End of 2021? Serious question. Asking for a friend. No. it does not. If someone like statistics, mic's Q3 game median is at about 17.7K right now. Wisdom of the crowds? |
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At the moment, I am not very impressed by the lower highs and lower lows.
That said, it would be nice to pop up above 12.5K (so i can lose yet another Q game, lol).
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Libra gets a nastygram. It appears that these products [Libra/calibra] may lend themselves to an entirely new global financial system that is based off of Switzerland and intended to rival US monetary policy and the dollar...it is imperative that Facebook and its partners immediately cease implementing plans... https://twitter.com/apompliano?lang=en |
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Now I have to get out of bed
To close a small short, right?  |
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Added haiku to the price post.
Nice game, thanks mic.
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could it be somehow that we're currently watching the burst of a mini bubble between the last major bubble and the next major bubble after halving in 2020? maybe it was to early for the next real bubble.
I doubt it. You seem to be giving too much benefit of the doubt to bear narratives and or bitcoin is a bubble FUDsters. We are just experiencing a normal correction that comes from a short-term period of too much exuberance. You saw that exuberance from a few days ago, no? Outrageously excessive for a period of time, so we could hardly have expected that level of excessive exuberance to NOT correct at some point. We need a 30% correction... Amost there (currently 26.4%) A small observation: we are declining faster than most "shitcoins', not sure why. |
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@JJG
I was a lot worse in 2014 as we were slicing downwards like a knife through hot butter. I invested £xx,000 of my hard earned fiat & I thought for a long time that I’d seriously fucked up (obviously I’ve been buying ever since but my maximum fear came in 2014).
Obviously that all turned out well & I’m sitting on huge profits atm, more than I could ever achieve in life anywhere else probably.
Anyhow, I felt that I had been making decent investments all of my life, but I tended to invest in index funds and things like that and also I tended not to venture out too much, but even before I had gotten into bitcoin in late 2013, some of my investments had gone up 30% or more in some years, and did not perform as well in other years, but still overall I was ONLY getting a return of an average of about 6% per year, and I have not completely gotten rid of those traditional investments (many of them index funds that are tied into 401ks), but they still are only returning in about an 6% per year average. So, I figured that even if bitcoin returned a bit less than 6%, at least it seems to have a decent sized asymmetric bet component that also allows a hedge against my dollar investment and nothing else had even come close, even though I used to consider that gold could be in the hedge category, but not necessarily in the asymmetric category. So, anyhow, it seems to me (and you seem to recognize it too) that largely, historically regular pleebs did not tend to have access to these kinds of investments. I have a very similar story-a good IRA+regular account, was not satisfied with the fact that we have very limited investment opportunities there (no private companies, etc.) I fully realized it when FB went public at 100-120bil valuation (BTW, AMZN only at $1 bil, but in a better time for regular investors). There were literally dozens of funds which "feasted" on FB from a few mil to 120 bil. I thought that it is a good time to start looking at asymmetrical deals and bitcoin was the first and the largest by far. I dabbled in others, to a limited degree (call it a hedge). That said, I feel quite holistic about it. By selling a small part, I might be widening the circle, hopefully. TL;DR bitcoin investment is like a private equity deal on a very promising venture. You can never get these (in bulk), unless you are Bono, lol. |
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Living up to his name, I guess. I just want for this to grow. If states want to make part of their reserves in bitcoin, I am fine with it. |
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The monthly update:  Dear Bears, As HairyMaclairy already mentioned, you have painted a wonderful weekly Doji! The 22% discount really helps during this accumulation phase. Interesting...so far NEVER more than 5 straight positive months. We just closed our fifth straight. I don't think that we are precluded, though. Total: 66 positive (60 green, 6 yellow) and 43 negative (red) months. The probability of next being green or yellow (low positive) is probably [66/(66+43)]X100= 60.55% |
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what's new around here?
bitcoin's going up and down
to hodl is the way
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$11520
major move in Q4
EDITED (added haiku):
slowly as a snail
our bitcoin is coming up
to the very top
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Fucking 7 day Twitter timeout for calling some talentless blue-checkmark whore a “talentless whore”. Nice to see $10,000 again. When $20,000 ? Guess I’ll hang out here for a bit. Have been having a blast on Twitter trolling the ever loving crap out of BCH and BSV supporters.
#hodl
Yeah BCH and BSV are not for me. I keep mining away. Doing okay. Coins are dirt cheap for me now about 4000 in power for a coin. I don’t need charts for my price predictions. 20k by 2020 Jan 1 30k + by 2020 April 1 These numbers are entirely possible, but so are other numbers as well. The path is not very predictable with a trend upwards, of course. |
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Not a price prediction by any means, just a historical analysis based on a similarity between June 2019 and Nov 2015 local tops:
If we are to litererally follow the 2015 scenario (and we likely won't), then we should bottom at about $8300, then go parabolic from there.
Considering that the graph is a bit smoothed already, I say that 9300-9600 might be possible, short term.
In Nov 2015 we went 20% down in the second leg, almost vertically.
That would be about 2200 points now, give or take.
I am not setting up buys there yet, though, as the whole thing is purely theoretical...for all i know, maybe we will just continue the bull from here.
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Approaching a Sunday special??
Is there such a thing, even? I took my "for the year" profits during a first dip (slowly...aka JJG style). Needed some dough for house-related projects. Now, I am ready for whatever comes next. |
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My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.
Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k? When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious? I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0). Maybe +/- a day or two. That's the power of the exponential growth. |
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"inertial mass reduction device"
looks like that junk in the basement at Roswell finally paid off
if it was true, that would be insane..., but i give it less than 10 -6 probability. |
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If it’s costing so little in places like the Ukraine then why aren’t Westerners flocking there & renting an apartment for 12 months to mine?
How much money could you realistically make?
I was in Kiev last summer & the city centre apartments were ok & really cheap.
...probably because they can find similar prices in US. In industrial setting, 5c-6c/kwh is relatively common. Also, people are being lazy and simply mine at so called hosting sites. It costs more, but no noise, etc. The mining machines are typically VERY noisy. |
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