Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rdbase]

https://medium.com/coinmonks/bitcoins-bull-run-this-is-what-s-different-compared-to-2017-28d239cd7256

Main and only points to read:

1. Retail vs institutional money
2. Geopolitics - Big game
3. facebook

You cant forget about the usual tether printing of billions to pump the price which happens every time there is a bull run.
Looks like china pumped the price past $12k last night despite americains being too busy to trade their bitcoins.
Shooting own rockets to the moon.

[1713307837]

1713307837

[1713307837]

1713307837

[1713307837]

1713307837

[1713307837]

1713307837

[1713307837]

1713307837

[ivomm]

Funny video 
https://www.facebook.com/DankCoinMemes/videos/2255367118108623/

[realr0ach]

You are wrong. The US monetary system (and the EU too) is debt based and made to work optimally under ever increasing debt.

No, I am not wrong.  Debt based fiat requires infinite growth to not collapse.  Without growth, interest rates would need to be set to zero, which is what we already have...and what Japan has had for a long time.  Interest rates are actually negative vs inflation.  Regardless, it's impossible for borrowing to not have a carrying cost.  Trying to nigger rig no carrying costs is just a temporary can kicking ploy that creates epic levels of malinvestment, which then implodes the system in a much bigger crash than having just left interest rates at their normal levels.

You then run into another problem.  The monetary unit literally is debt.  Interest generating loans and the currency itself (which also generates interest) are erroneously classified as assets and used as collateral when debt is always a liability and never collateral.  The prolonged 0% interest rate is guaranteed to create a malinvestment bubble which will bust and create massive deflation and collapse the system when it does from all crosslinked loans going bad because the banks cannot handle any form of deflation.

But back to the carrying cost aspect.  Fiat dollars are considered assets because if you have enough of them, they can (at some times) generate a lot of interest for you.  If interest rates are zero because growth is impossible due to peak working age demographic in every nation that matters, and peak energy use - because energy is what powers the economy and the world doesn't have infinite energy to give - then fiat is no longer an asset and then turns into a liability.  Once fiat is a liability, the world is guaranteed to go back to physical metals regardless in almost every aspect.

[Wekkel]

You mean: ‘the world is guaranteed to move towards perfect money (e.g., Bitcoin)’.

[Wilhelm]

You are wrong. The US monetary system (and the EU too) is debt based and made to work optimally under ever increasing debt.

No, I am not wrong.  Debt based fiat requires infinite growth to not collapse.  Without growth, interest rates would need to be set to zero, which is what we already have...and what Japan has had for a long time.  Interest rates are actually negative vs inflation.  Regardless, it's impossible for borrowing to not have a carrying cost.  Trying to nigger rig no carrying costs is just a temporary can kicking ploy that creates epic levels of malinvestment, which then implodes the system in a much bigger crash than having just left interest rates at their normal levels.

You then run into another problem.  The monetary unit literally is debt.  Interest generating loans and the currency itself (which also generates interest) are erroneously classified as assets and used as collateral when debt is always a liability and never collateral.  The prolonged 0% interest rate is guaranteed to create a malinvestment bubble which will bust and create massive deflation and collapse the system when it does from all crosslinked loans going bad because the banks cannot handle any form of deflation.

But back to the carrying cost aspect.  Fiat dollars are considered assets because if you have enough of them, they can (at some times) generate a lot of interest for you.  If interest rates are zero because growth is impossible due to peak working age demographic in every nation that matters, and peak energy use - because energy is what powers the economy and the world doesn't have infinite energy to give - then fiat is no longer an asset and then turns into a liability.  Once fiat is a liability, the world is guaranteed to go back to physical metals regardless in almost every aspect.

I can mostly follow your reasoning.
In short "No inflation = no interest = less use of banks because no interest gains = less loans because of money short = downfall of economy".
An economy can only function if money moves around.

[realr0ach]

You mean: ‘the world is guaranteed to move towards perfect money (e.g., Bitcoin)’.

You mean you're copying and pasting a Nick Szabo lie - the same scammer who was trying to fool people into buying useless Ethereum.  He would lie about Ethereum but he would never lie about Bitcoin, right?  No matter how many times you scammers lie and claim Bitcoin is "money", it's not.  It's a currency.  It even says so in the name "cryptocurrency" for ultra-slow people.  

To be money something has to be a physical commodity with a use case relevant to humans.  This is why things like bags of rice were used as money in the past.  If something is not a physical commodity with a use case for humans, all you have is a confidence game scam where the bottom can drop out at any second.  Bitcoin does not have any of the other traits required of money either like fungibility or durability.  

The purpose of money is to transfer value from the present to the future.  If a box of iodized salt has a shelf life of 5 years, it can accomplish that task because the durability is a fixed variable.  Things like silver and gold do it a lot better since the expiration date is practically infinite.  Bitcoin, on the other hand, being both a confidence game and a digital Rube Goldberg machine full of millions of potential black swans that can cause it to die at any second, has no durability whatsoever and is incapable of reliably transferring value to the future even as good as lowly table salt.  It also has built-in, rent seeking middlemen and doesn't remove counterparty risk.

[Wekkel]

How long should reality tell you otherwise before you reconsider?

6 yrs?
60 yrs?
6,000 yrs?

Just a question.

[realr0ach]

^The fact you used the word "perfect" to describe Bitcoin when every single thing about it is completely arbitrary shows there is no bounds to your delusion.  Is Ethereum "perfect money" too?  What about Dogecoin?  Casinocoin?  Kanyecoin?  All 6 million digital shitcoins ever made?  They're all imaginary, Keynesian widget confidence game scams.  They're not money, they're not resources, they're currencies.  All currencies start at a value of zero and return there.  They're pump and dump scams by very definition, or just outright fraud.

Bitcoin could have just as easily been created with exponentially increasing inflation starting at 1 billion coins per day and increasing to 2 billion the next day.  Then is it still "perfect money"?  Or a halving...every day.  Your bumper sticker slogans from liars like Nick Szabo and Andreas Antonopolous do not hold up to any scrutiny.  And yes, I'm aware they and you are bastardizing this term from Nash for the Triffin Dilemma.  Physical metals already solve the Triffin Dilemma.

[Wekkel]

In a sense, PMs are an illusion as well. That’s the thing you need to get around. I say perfect because it combines certain traits of good ‘money’ in a single system.

We never had better.

[infofront]

You are wrong. The US monetary system (and the EU too) is debt based and made to work optimally under ever increasing debt.

No, I am not wrong.  Debt based fiat requires infinite growth to not collapse.  Without growth, interest rates would need to be set to zero, which is what we already have...and what Japan has had for a long time.  Interest rates are actually negative vs inflation.  Regardless, it's impossible for borrowing to not have a carrying cost.  Trying to nigger rig no carrying costs is just a temporary can kicking ploy that creates epic levels of malinvestment, which then implodes the system in a much bigger crash than having just left interest rates at their normal levels.

You then run into another problem.  The monetary unit literally is debt.  Interest generating loans and the currency itself (which also generates interest) are erroneously classified as assets and used as collateral when debt is always a liability and never collateral.  The prolonged 0% interest rate is guaranteed to create a malinvestment bubble which will bust and create massive deflation and collapse the system when it does from all crosslinked loans going bad because the banks cannot handle any form of deflation.

But back to the carrying cost aspect.  Fiat dollars are considered assets because if you have enough of them, they can (at some times) generate a lot of interest for you.  If interest rates are zero because growth is impossible due to peak working age demographic in every nation that matters, and peak energy use - because energy is what powers the economy and the world doesn't have infinite energy to give - then fiat is no longer an asset and then turns into a liability.  Once fiat is a liability, the world is guaranteed to go back to physical metals regardless in almost every aspect.

There are other ways to keep the shell game going. Governments can eat some of the debt. We keep hearing from the communist presidential candidates that they want to cancel out all student loan debt, for example.
We saw during the great recession the government ate the debt of the ((bankers)). Then, the central banks eat the debt.

[VB1001]

Pompliano 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano — co-founder of crypto asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Assets — predicts bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-75-confident-bitcoin-price-is-100-000-by-end-of-2021

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1146707848279150592

[fillippone]

Pompliano 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano — co-founder of crypto asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Assets — predicts bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-75-confident-bitcoin-price-is-100-000-by-end-of-2021

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1146707848279150592

Being 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021 equals being 100% Confident Bitcoin Price is $75,000 by End of 2021?
Serious question.
Asking for a friend.

[VB1001]

^
I do not know, if we really go into parabolic mode, all these predictions can happen and it is possible before 2021

edit:


https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1142271065936187392

Personally right now I have my doubts, but look at the graph, Bitcoin can do it.

[Biodom]

Pompliano 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano — co-founder of crypto asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Assets — predicts bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-75-confident-bitcoin-price-is-100-000-by-end-of-2021

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1146707848279150592

Being 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021 equals being 100% Confident Bitcoin Price is $75,000 by End of 2021?
Serious question.
Asking for a friend.

No. it does not.
If someone like statistics, mic's Q3 game median is at about 17.7K right now.
Wisdom of the crowds?

[rdbase]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

[d_eddie]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

[fillippone]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

[Biodom]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Bitcoin tracker one (CXBTF) continues to experience regulator-induced difficulties trading in US despite the fact that is has been trading in Sweden for years already with nary a problem.
That vehicle has no premium to NAV in comparison with Barry Silbert 's concoctions that trade with high premiums (GBTC and ETHE).
Who said that US regulators play a fair game? Maybe we should ask Bra-Arg game referee?

[VB1001]

Bny Mellon / Crypto's Next Act

“We’re seeing the convergence of investor demand for digital assets alongside regulatory certainty, which we believe is being driven by the advent of more infrastructure to support access and trust in this market. ”

https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/what-we-do/markets/aerial-view-magazine/cryptos-next-act.jsp

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1146426614579900416

[d_eddie]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?