The alt situation is a *key* reason why many gold-bugs think bitcoin is ridiculous.
The commodities market is a *key* reason why many fiat-bugs think gold is ridiculous. |
|
|
|
I was expecting something beginning with a 'b' and ending with an 'i'  That would be too much in rural Estonia. Rolls-Royce maximum. They already think that the Bitcoin castle is actually a Mafia den. |
|
|
|
Nobody even noted how Hypo Alpen bank in Austria collapsed recently and then was bailed-in with 100% of depositor's money and how country's parliament void of all insured deposits from that bank.
What exactly happened? Google not helpful. |
|
|
|
it is not flash crash
It is exchange manipulation to trigger stop loss on MT4 trading platform with leverage.
This is the most likely explanation. It has happened before and will happen again. If you trust the exchange enough to keep lowball bids there, you can make lotsa money. Being leveraged long is not very good proposition with these liquidation crashes to 102 and 308...  |
|
|
|
Historically anything below 0.003 is a buy, because prices never stayed below for significant amount of time.
After Monero hit the exchange, its volume-weighted average has been below 0.003 for exactly 12 days. (Out of 92.) |
|
|
|
Was there any specific reason for the recent Monero downturn in price? I know all alts are dropping but it seems that Monero got hit extra hard.
Actually it got hit less than most alts. But still it is funny that Bitcoin worries are either positive, neutral or negative to Monero. If they are negative, then it makes sense that BTC:XMR rate stays constant. If they are either neutral or positive, Monero should gain. Now its getting hammered. LOL. |
|
|
|
|
BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.
If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.
|
|
|
|
Ah the day ( 2013-4-10) when BTC crashed from $266 to $105 (-60%) in 7 hours. Then snapped back to $203 (+95%) in 2 hours. Then took a slide back to $120 (-40%) in 17 hours, after which the trading in Mt.Gox was halted for 10 hours. When the exchange opened at $130, it soon crashed to $65 (-50%) in 1 hour, after which it recovered to $130 (+100%) in 1 hour. 9 hours later we saw $54 (-60%). In 12 more hours it was already $130 (+150%) yet again. ** What am I teaching? That price does not matter. Number of bitcoins matters, and low prices are to be used for buying them, not selling. Thank you  |
|
|
|
|
Technically, I was not talking about a rally but a bottom. Well, it is kind of same thing. But external events (btc) may postpone the actual rally, or cause volatility.
|
|
|
|
It's always darkest before the dawn Why not make it a $10,000 party and start preparations when $1250 is crossed. It'll hit $10k before the party day for sure! |
|
|
|
The bottom will be at $400 in September, then stabilization for a couple of months and then starting from November a rise over 12 months to reach the previous ATH ($1000-1200) by the end of 2015.
That would be the slowest rise ever and is highly unlikely I believe. When it get's close to the ATH it will go really fast as always and dramatically overshoot. I cannot see what would delay the adoption a full year. So there is no chance that the price would not rise significantly before the end of 2015 |
|
|
|
|
Less economics than speculation, but...
I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).
- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.
- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.
- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.
- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.
|
|
|
|
If Bitcoin will continue to fall for a few more weeks/months the ALT-scene will get nearly wiped out. I will shed no tears
Yes, it is such a feast now for the ones buying alts that are independent of BTC, yet get double hammering due to BTC. Monero comes to mind  |
|
|
|
We are probably a few hours from either impending doom or staring at a lack of volatility while we fearfully anticipate impending doom. So, on that note. How is insomnia treating everybody this week. This has been the worst week for me ever in terms of eating, exercise, sleeping, and general bathing. How about the rest of the team?
I have eaten rather well, thank you for asking. Slept - not so much. But the said dinner lasted 8 hours from the appointed time, what can I do?  |
|
|
|
How do we know the consequence is inevitable that the next generation is 5-200million buying in?
If Bitcoin remains a niche, it has failed. It has not replaced the current monetary system. Then new people don't come, and the price also does not rise. Our decision is to analyze, what is the probability for world domination. If it is anything more than 1%, it makes sense to invest quite a significant percentage. The link in my original post shows the blatant absurdity in claiming that the new generation would never arrive, because they are already in the pipeline. Still, even 1% suffices. |
|
|
|
Bubble's flight has been delayed. Scheduled arrival: November
These are my thoughts exactly. If a new bubble/rally ever comes that is. Yes if. I wonder the same. Because if everyone is expecting another bubble, can one happen, at least so soon? Yes, it can. But the prediction has to be based on valid logic, applied to factual observations: the rise does not happen because of the actions of the current owners (1-2 million) but is an inevitable consequence of the next generation (5-20 million) buying in.Oh you who have so little faith (and logic  ) |
|
|
|
you didn't gave him 10000 XMR?  Hopefully soon |
|
|
|
It was in 2011 when I arrived but that was hardly the beginning. The very beginning of btc was a ver different situation though since exchanges didn't exist at all. The very first "trade" of any kind was probably the pizza. In 2011 we had MtGox and there was plenty of speculative trading.
I don't know how much trade Monero is seeing in real life. But a director of Estonian smarthouse association was dining with us this Friday, he did not know about Monero at all. We mentioned the Pizza initiative that 2 hot pizzas needs to be delivered to us in exchange for 20 XMR. So the following day he came again, to redeem the moneros and his place in history Pic exists |
|
|
|
This is updated and cross-posted from another thread, for what it's worth. You guys seem to like statistics and reality, and perhaps this is pertinent to the discussion.
I've been working on some indexes specifically for alts. Indexes were all balanced at 100 just eleven days ago at noon. Info source is coinmarketcap.com
Latest, from about two hours ago:
Index 1: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC is now 75.36
Index 2: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC and LTC is now 80.68
(These indexes are imperfect because coinmarketcap has added 5 or 6 cryptos in the last eleven days, which skews them a little high. Interesting that the HUGE dump by LTC has such an impact)
Index 3: cap-weighted, includes a basket of 31 NON-LTC cryptos selected by cap/volume metrics is now 73.58
Index 4: cap-weighted, includes the basket of 31 PLUS LTC is now 71.25
(I think Index 3 is actually the closest to what I'm trying to accomplish, which is to judge the general movement of the alt market as a whole. I created Index 3 and intentionally left out LTC because it was so much larger than the rest of the alts and I wanted to gauge the movement of my portfolio against a representative sample. Again, note that LTC influenced lower.)
Index 5: price-weighted version of Index 3 is now 70.17
Index 6: price-weighted version of Index 4 is now 69.25
(Dow Jones is price-weighted. S&P, Russell, most others are cap weighted. I just set these up to see if there would be much difference. Again, LTC provides downward weight.)
Meta index is 73.38. This contains elements of all above.
My feeling is that Index 3 is the one that alt traders would find to be the most representative of general market direction, but I'm open to any feedback if y'all have some. This weekend, I will re-balance the basket. I'm using strict cap/volume statistics to mechanically re-balance. Right now, the basket is 31 cryptos, but it's possible that it could drop to 26 or go up to 36 representative examples.
I'm planning to seek out some help from somebody who can integrate API so that I can put some or all of these indexes up on a website that updates every 5 minutes along with coinmarketcap.com.
TL:DR If your alt portfolio hasn't dropped by 26.42% in the last eleven days, you might be beating the market. If this kind of info is helpful to you and/or if you can help me put together a simple website so that alt traders can access this info, hit me up.
For what it's worth, XMR hasn't changed much in relation to BTC during this time frame, but my start date is a bit arbitrary. That just happens to be when I started, in part because I wanted to know how Monero was doing compared to other alts. My start date happens to be just after XMR took a haircut versus BTC over a period of a couple of days. I wanted to determine how bad that really was in the bigger picture.
edited to say "balanced at 100 just eleven days ago at noon" (had originally written nine, but that was incorrect.)
Bump +1 This is interesting - could you post weekly updates in the thread? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
