Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[Febo]

is monero still a strong coin in long term invesment? whats your thoughts? ty.

How long term are we talking? Several months? I don't think the price will grow due to the high inflation of ~21,500 coins per day. Monero emits around 86% of its supply over 4 years. Not sure why they chose such a horrible emission schedule, it certainly hurts investor confidence.

It's a great emission schedule. It ensures that there will be a sufficient amount of time for many adopters to get XMR at a good price before bubbling up. Block reward is constantly decreasing, in fact now it is below 15.

LTC emits just as many coins per day so it is not really a fair argument to say that Monero is not capable of sustaining a higher price due to the inflation rate.

Yes i agree, coin is not fully developed, if high amount would be mined till now, then price would be much lower then is now, and all of us would buy it at much lover price. I would not even call us investors that way.
This emission makes sure, there was never huge surplus of new coins mined and there will be enough coins mined daily for some more time. This gives coin to get more healthy investors. So when coin will be finalized and made to be easily used for some average user, it will be still cheap to buy.

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[smooth]

Another possible confounding factor would be whether a new client was released/advertised. Shortly after that point, there will be a glut of downloads, not only due to the increased awareness, but from previous users of Monero merely updating to the newest client, artificially inflating numbers (not that I've no idea if this applies in the time frame that was looked at).

This is true and in the future we will try to break out new downloads vs. upgrades. However, in this time frame there was no new version released. The current version is still 0.8.8 from June 11.

[aminorex]

It's getting pretty volatile around 003, so it should make a decisive move soon.  Bidders are obviously hoping for it to decide lower. 

Difficulty remains stable about 1.15g, down from ATH.  When difficulty rises again, that will be primary evidence of a resumption in adoption growth.  Until then there are no fundamental grounds to call a bottom, only technical ones.  There are fundmental grounds to expect a bottom to be immanent, however:  The turnover is far in excess of mining output.  Since the market is in distribution, that means far more coins are being sold to happy homes than are being mined by dysfunctional homes.

[smooth]

The turnover is far in excess of mining output.

Yes, this is quite interesting and different from many other alts. I don't really know why this happened but it seems a huge portion of the trading on this coin is speculative in nature and has nothing to do with mining and coins finding their first home. It is very unusual.

[darlidada]

The turnover is far in excess of mining output.

Yes, this is quite interesting and different from many other alts. I don't really know why this happened but it seems a huge portion of the trading on this coin is speculative in nature and has nothing to do with mining and coins finding their first home. It is very unusual.

Was bitcoin like that at the beginning?  If so, please feel free to share some others similarities xmr shares with btc

[smooth]

The turnover is far in excess of mining output.

Yes, this is quite interesting and different from many other alts. I don't really know why this happened but it seems a huge portion of the trading on this coin is speculative in nature and has nothing to do with mining and coins finding their first home. It is very unusual.

Was bitcoin like that at the beginning?  If so, please feel free to share some others similarities xmr shares with btc

It was in 2011 when I arrived but that was hardly the beginning. The very beginning of btc was a ver different situation though since exchanges didn't exist at all. The very first "trade" of any kind was probably the pizza.  In 2011 we had MtGox and there was plenty of speculative trading.

[TeeBone]

Looks like a big drop coming. This is where we make a killing, fellas.

For technical reasons i'd prefer it not go below the previous low (0023), but it wouldnt be a disaster either.

[Jhyrachy]

Looks like a big drop coming. This is where we make a killing, fellas.

For technical reasons i'd prefer it not go below the previous low (0023), but it wouldnt be a disaster either.

I'll not be so sure.
price dropped a lot, we are around 1.50$, we can't drop so much more, the supply is limited and this is the only CN currency with high expectance. I'm pretty cool with the fact we can reach 5$/coin in the next months without problems

[Brilliantrocket]

Looks like a big drop coming. This is where we make a killing, fellas.

For technical reasons i'd prefer it not go below the previous low (0023), but it wouldnt be a disaster either.

I'll not be so sure.
price dropped a lot, we are around 1.50$, we can't drop so much more, the supply is limited and this is the only CN currency with high expectance. I'm pretty cool with the fact we can reach 5$/coin in the next months without problems

[saddambitcoin]

Buying XMR under 3 mBTC is like buying BTC under $500. It's just a good price and it won't last long.

Buy buy buy

[iourzzz]

Buying XMR under 3 mBTC is like buying BTC under $500. It's just a good price and it won't last long.

Buy buy buy

Sounds true. I am still buying.

[aminorex]

Buying XMR under 3 mBTC is like buying BTC under $500. It's just a good price and it won't last long.

Buy buy buy

and when you buy with usd it is cheap * cheap = ka-ching.

i think the time is now: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8388957#msg8388957

[nioc]

Buying XMR under 3 mBTC is like buying BTC under $500. It's just a good price and it won't last long.

Buy buy buy

I did and now I feel I must stop as my XMR:BTC ratio is quite high

[vuduchyld]

Buying XMR under 3 mBTC is like buying BTC under $500. It's just a good price and it won't last long.

Buy buy buy

Dammit, I tried! Jumped back over 3. It was moving pretty quickly there. It was under 3 when I got to Polo.

[aminorex]

here is another reasonable entry for your convenience and profit.

[TeeBone]

Is that risto's 75K wall ?  

[vuduchyld]

here is another reasonable entry for your convenience and profit.

Indeed!

[aminorex]

Is that risto's 75K wall ?  

i think it belongs to another.  its only a just-in-case bid.  it wont affect price unless someone really really needs to dump 130k xmr right away fast.  and i don't think there are that many xmr looking for a home.

[2dogs]

.003/.00299015 on Polo.
Red everywhere.

[saddambitcoin]

.003/.00299015 on Polo.
Red everywhere.

i'm with amino. my initial target (called just after the last peak) was for august 20 reversal. since i've made that public, i fully accept it will not be correct, but historically these prices have never lasted long in monero world.