Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[Brilliantrocket]

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

If only the rest of us had castles to retreat to when we're proven wrong.

[percocet]

Was there any specific reason for the recent Monero downturn in price? I know all alts are dropping but it seems that Monero got hit extra hard.

[rpietila]

Was there any specific reason for the recent Monero downturn in price? I know all alts are dropping but it seems that Monero got hit extra hard.

Actually it got hit less than most alts. But still it is funny that Bitcoin worries are either positive, neutral or negative to Monero. If they are negative, then it makes sense that BTC:XMR rate stays constant. If they are either neutral or positive, Monero should gain.

Now its getting hammered. LOL.

[Schickeria]

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

If only the rest of us had castles to retreat to when we're proven wrong.

I buy or sell on my own decisions.  Of course, there is some influence from others, as building up your decisions can not and should not be a one-mans-world. I get very careful and doubtful when reading from investors that have no castle to retreat to and are highly invested.
I don't know rpielita, but a castle to retreat to is a tiny plus in acknowledgement ;-)

[percocet]

I'm starting to think this is a great time to buy some Monero. The long term prospects are very good as this is certainly the best of the Cryptonote coins. The question is, is today the day or does it have farther to fall?

[pinky]

I'm starting to think this is a great time to buy some Monero. The long term prospects are very good as this is certainly the best of the Cryptonote coins. The question is, is today the day or does it have farther to fall?

Historically anything below 0.003 is a buy, because prices never stayed below for significant amount of time. I'll give you a free tip: there is a falling trendline that has not been breached and price has bounced lower every time it touched. It will work like that until it won't.

[GreekBitcoin]

I'm starting to think this is a great time to buy some Monero. The long term prospects are very good as this is certainly the best of the Cryptonote coins. The question is, is today the day or does it have farther to fall?

Put some orders a bit below 0.003 and maybe they will be filled especially now with bitcoin/altcoin crashing...

[rpietila]

Historically anything below 0.003 is a buy, because prices never stayed below for significant amount of time.

After Monero hit the exchange, its volume-weighted average has been below 0.003 for exactly 12 days. (Out of 92.)

[saddambitcoin]

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

[smooth]

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

By what measure do you think XMR has overtaken DRK (besides potential -- we all agree on that certainly).

[nutildah]

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

Mintcoin has more coins than monero and darkcoin put together, yet its market cap is small. Number of coins has nothing to do with market cap.

[saddambitcoin]

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

By what measure do you think XMR has overtaken DRK (besides potential -- we all agree on that certainly).

OK sorry I may be jumping the gun a bit. I was just comparing the price of 1 XMR to 1 DRK. DRK is still higher at the moment (0.0039) but it has been falling so hard while Monero gains more momentum every day. We are getting closer...

[smooth]

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

Mintcoin has more coins than monero and darkcoin put together, yet its market cap is small. Number of coins has nothing to do with market cap.

My second sentence was contingent on my first. Higher price per coin along with (equal or) higher number of coins = higher market cap.

[ArticMine]

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

There are two issues here with XMR during what may in fact be the last legs of a XBT bear market.

1) First all alt-coins are highly correlated with XBT, since XBT has the lions share of the crypto currency market capitalization and the alt-coins are priced by the market as riskier versions of XBT. This is true during both bull and bear markets. Individual alt-coins, at this stage, are most certainly not unrelated or uncorrelated to XBT. In fact the exact opposite is the case here.  A properly weighted index of alt-coins would likely perform as a leveraged XBT position magnifying losses during a bear market and gains during a bull market. The trading history of LTC, NMC and PPC in terms of XBT have already demonstrated this during the last two XBT bull and bear markets.

2) Individual alt-coins are of course going to behave very differently. Those that have a good or fair amount of merit are likely to take a comparably smaller loss with respect to XBT during the XBT bear market and make larger gains during the subsequent XBT bull market while the true shit/scam coins are likely to get wiped out during XBT bear market or at best end up at the bottom of the rankings.

For the above reasons purchasing XMR with XBT in this market may make sense, not only because XMR's intrinsic merits, but also as a leveraged play on XBT, since it is highly likely that the XMR/XBT rate will be considerably higher than now during the next XBT bull market. The advantage of this is that since there is no debt involved one can hold the XMR position for as long as it takes without having to be concerned about margin calls. One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

[camu6]

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!

[GreekBitcoin]

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!

DRK relies on masternodes, which is as centralized as it gets. Monero doesnt need masternodes.

That one is pretty much enough but there are many pages with the whole list...

[aminorex]

to answer the question of camu6:  monero leads among its peers by a factor of 32 or more, in terms of liquidity.  that advantage is almost impossible to overcome.  app-like features don't help liquidity - they create frictions that resist pure monetary liquidity.  the peers i consider are fairly launched, honest, open-source coins with sound cryptographic foundations and competent developers that have sufficient mathematical and (game theoretical cum social) team credibility and (monetary) value-propositions to be viable long-terms stores of wealth.

you will find that the median quality of discussion in monero threads is indicative of user and development communities with a sense of purpose responsibily, and relative security in their positions, with a congenial humor.  i hope that it will add more entrepreneurs as it grows, while demonstrating a resistance to scams, as might be characteristic of an intelligent and educated, skeptical community.

in monero these features are built upon the foundation of a heavily reviewed code base and a development culture of transparency and non-ideological, low-drama meritocracy, with a very strong, almost axiomatic, commitment to its social contract.  development has a history of solid steady progress, prioritized suitably to the long-term development of robust technical foundations for core features necessary to a usable private liquidity vehicle, and while the players have been dynamic, the development progress and direction has been stable and coherent, indicating a productive homeostasis.

[Bitcopia]

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

There are two issues here with XMR during what may in fact be the last legs of a XBT bear market.

1) First all alt-coins are highly correlated with XBT, since XBT has the lions share of the crypto currency market capitalization and the alt-coins are priced by the market as riskier versions of XBT. This is true during both bull and bear markets. Individual alt-coins, at this stage, are most certainly not unrelated or uncorrelated to XBT. In fact the exact opposite is the case here.  A properly weighted index of alt-coins would likely perform as a leveraged XBT position magnifying losses during a bear market and gains during a bull market. The trading history of LTC, NMC and PPC in terms of XBT have already demonstrated this during the last two XBT bull and bear markets.

2) Individual alt-coins are of course going to behave very differently. Those that have a good or fair amount of merit are likely to take a comparably smaller loss with respect to XBT during the XBT bear market and make larger gains during the subsequent XBT bull market while the true shit/scam coins are likely to get wiped out during XBT bear market or at best end up at the bottom of the rankings.

For the above reasons purchasing XMR with XBT in this market may make sense, not only because XMR's intrinsic merits, but also as a leveraged play on XBT, since it is highly likely that the XMR/XBT rate will be considerably higher than now during the next XBT bull market. The advantage of this is that since there is no debt involved one can hold the XMR position for as long as it takes without having to be concerned about margin calls. One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.

[lebing]

snip

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.

he probably is referring to the fact that you can buy and sell on polo without any personal information given out... i.e. only those who really really like paying taxes are going to pay the cap gains on this exchange.

[ArticMine]

... One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.

It comes down minimizing the upfront realized and therefore taxable capital gains on the sale of the XBT in order to purchase XMR. I am going to use Canada as an example since this is the jurisdiction I am taxable on; however this principle will likely apply to other jurisdictions. A purchase of XMR with XBT is treated by the Canada Revenue Agency as a sale of XBT for CAD followed immediately by a purchase of XMR with CAD. The deemed amount of CAD is determined by the fair market value of the XBT in terms of CAD at the time of the purchase of XMR with XBT. For a given XMR/XBT exchange rate it is advantageous from a tax point of view if the XBT/CAD rate is low. Granted this leads to a lower cost basis of the XMR and consequently a higher capital gain when the XMR are sold; however if the XMR are held for the medium to long term there can be real value in the tax deferral. I have recently being purchasing XMR with XBT; however I also had to sell some XBT for CAD in order to cover the tax liability mentioned above and factor in this additional cost in terms of XBT, in order to determine the risk to potential reward of the XMR purchase. This is particularly an issue for medium to long term holders as opposed to day traders.

I must emphasize that it is never a good idea to enter into a trade or business deal with the objective of generating a tax loss, since more often than not this is equivalent to entering into a trade or business deal with the objective of loosing money! In this case however it makes business sense to purchase XMR with XBT when XBT/CAD is low since this can lead to a lower XMR/XBT rate.