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4401  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2019, 04:41:22 AM

An Avocadro number?
The cute cat-a new meme, perhaps?
4402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2019, 03:35:25 AM
to me avocado feels like eating butter, but I know that it is good for me, so I partake regardless of the bland taste  Sad.

 It is quite buttery but I usually don't find it bland.  Maybe if it's not quite ripe when you eat it?


I probably just ate too much several times when I was in more active avocado consuming period.
It's hard to get bad avocados in TX due to its proximity to Mexico Wink
4403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2019, 03:05:27 AM
I had my pizza with deep-fried avocado - delicious.

Deep fried avocado?? That sounds delicious. How do they fry it without it falling apart?

I guess if you can deep fry ice cream you can deep fry anything.

One of my favorite seasonal beverages is the avocado shake. You wouldn't think avocado would go well with vanilla ice cream, but it does. Its kind of amazing.

to me avocado feels like eating butter, but I know that it is good for me, so I partake regardless of the bland taste  Sad.
4404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: May 23, 2019, 03:02:41 AM
I am curious where do you see ltc/btc ratio longterm?

This may seem like a "busy" chart to you:  LTCUSD (top); BTCUSD (middle); LTCBTC (bottom):  I have not done the math of BTCUSD and LTCUSD price projections to see what that would equate to for LTCBTC.  But this is my estimate...

Reversal to upward pressure COULD begin as soon as May 27th but may not see reversal until a couple of days into June.

img snipped

Bitcoin/USD - Bitstamp:



Something like your green line is my favorite scenario as well.
4405  Economy / Speculation / Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 23, 2019, 02:41:36 AM
Bitcoin IRA is not a self directed LLC setup.

Cool. Their fees were high in the past and maybe they used the LLC setup before.

Honestly, I still prefer XBT Provider's ETNs. The volume and market making on them is fantastic. Any USA broker that allows people to trade them in IRAs?

CXBTF is the symbol.

I bought them on Fidelity (in IRA, had to sign some additional online docs). The trade fee was expensive too.
This ETN is weird as sometimes it is quoted and sometimes not, like today there is no chart in yahoo finance for some reason.
At one point it was suspended for a few months.
I think that SEC "hates" it.
Or, maybe BS has these feelings, lol.
4406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2019, 07:20:23 PM
Let's assume that in the year 2023 BTC is 250K without hyperinflation in fiat (as per Draper's numbers since he nailed the 10K time spot precisely).
Whatcha gonna do?

Retire?
Buy RE in trendy places (SF, NY, London)?
Buy a ranch (not for me), maybe a house in the woods?
Travel (or alternating between golfing, skiing and parasailing)?

Anybody care to say?

My choices (in the aforementioned scenario):
1. Retire (70-75% probability).
2. A small apartment, maybe NY or San Fran or even LA (got tired of all the heat in TX). Location is more important than size. Views are much better in San Fran, but the city loses it's culture mix, apparently.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/how-san-francisco-broke-americas-heart/2019/05/21/ef9a0ac0-70ea-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html
3. A basic house in the woods-Oregon, maybe.
4. A few trips to Europe, maybe Japan. Will go to a few CL finals, hopefully!

Oh, forgot to say that I would not do anything if we keep oscillating between 5k and 20K.

Retire, move to Texas or Florida, spend my time studying computer science, parenting, being a beach bum, and growing tropical fruit. When the kid has summers off from school, take long foreign trips.

I hear you, but are we moving (presumably) in opposite directions, lol?
In TX already. Like the people, and no state tax, don't like the heat and HIGH RE taxes (they are more than three times higher than in CA and seven times higher than in Hawaii).
4407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2019, 07:03:43 PM
Let's assume that in the year 2023 BTC is 250K without hyperinflation in fiat (as per Draper's numbers since he nailed the 10K time spot precisely).
Whatcha gonna do?

Retire?
Buy RE in trendy places (SF, NY, London)?
Buy a ranch (not for me), maybe a house in the woods?
Travel (or alternating between golfing, skiing and parasailing)?

Anybody care to say?

My choices (in the aforementioned scenario):
1. Retire (70-75% probability).
2. A small apartment, maybe NY or San Fran or even LA (got tired of all the heat in TX). Location is more important than size. Views are much better in San Fran, but the city loses it's culture mix, apparently.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/how-san-francisco-broke-americas-heart/2019/05/21/ef9a0ac0-70ea-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html
3. A basic house in the woods-Oregon, maybe.
4. A few trips to Europe, maybe Japan. Will go to a few CL finals, hopefully!

Oh, forgot to say that I would not do anything if we keep oscillating between 5k and 20K.
4408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2019, 06:25:59 PM
"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"

Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

So, he is saying that volatility is "steadily" increasing during the last three years?
Lol, it does feel this way, regardless.
4409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2019, 04:18:58 AM
Shelby/Anonymint suggested I share this here:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190521t130454806z

It's his analysis on the Stocks-to-Flow model in relation to the future price of bitcoin. It's interesting stuff IMO.

Based on now almost forgotten BETI model, I always thought that prior bubble should have peaked at 28K or above.
It was really hoodwinked out of existence by the CME futures.
He is also surprised by that (the "bubble" peak was too low in 2017 by comparison) and suggests higher S/F next time (to "compensate").
That's an interesting idea, albeit I am not sure why S/F became such a rage all of a sudden?
4410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 21, 2019, 11:48:25 PM


https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1130887309795237889

So thats the Dumb money that still needs to come??

sad episode:

1. Some full bodied students (females) were ogling ONE dollar is if it is something, one even said that she is hungry. IDK, spent all money on tuition, perhaps? I was less broke during my student years, for sure.

2. Interviewer found a guy who wanted bitcoin, but he did not give it to him (at least to the first guy) under some lame excuse that the guy did not have a wallet.
4411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 09:55:49 PM
@JJG

Tbh buddy, I need to buy a diary (I like paper records) and write down a few price/sell scenarios. I need to be much better prepared for the next parabolic bull run.

The last one took me by surprise & I was a little bit like a deer in headlights.

We all need to have a fixed sell point for a % of our bitcoin’s in my opinion. I might go out tomorrow & buy a diary then scribble a few things down tomorrow night.

IMHO, all plans go astray when market hit you in the face as hard as the last time.
I promised to someone to sell a certain amount at 10K, then market surged and I sold only 1/10 of what was agreed.
Now, i am not certain whether i should still go ahead at 10-11K (if and when we get there) OR wait it out.
From prior btc bull markets, they always tend to go to new ATHs; on the other hand-what if this is the first time it wouldn't happen (as unlikely as it is)?

Another thought: I rather not plan selling at exact numbers, but maybe at a certain time vis-a-vis what I want to do with the proceeds.
4412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 07:21:13 PM
so it's a 35 day period for comments and counter-comments to ask for clarity on basically how it all works -
surveillance, anti-manipulation, liquidity, Gemini, custody, the OTC part

fucking bullish

pump it

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1130547923211739138

Quote
As expected, the SEC has delayed the VanEck bitcoin ETF proposal. Read the order here: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2019/34-85896.pdf …. VanEck's new deadline is August 19. The SEC can & likely will delay one more time for a final deadline of October 18
... snip

They think that they look thoughtful, but in reality some prior comments were done by absolute nincompoops.
Whatevs...it's not even funny.
They pretend that GBTC does not exist. What is the difference?
4413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 04:06:52 PM
It is interesting that this ETF thing is so important. This side of the pond I could have invested in crypto ETFs for years now... Nothing new...
AFAIK, Crypto ETFs are baskets of shares of selected crypto companies. I think a cryptocurrency ETF exists already, but it includes ETH and other shitcoins. The ETFs under SEC scrutiny would include btc only. What's more, some of them are designed for settlement in kind, not in cash (that is, bitcoin - not USD). The importance or usefulness of such a financial instrument is debatable, but it can't be dismissed as "nothing new".

Where's the novelty? Everyone would be able to buy (paper) btc through their stock market broker, without having an account at an exchange. Besides, if the settlement is really in kind, the ETF issuer would have to hold/buy/sell matching amounts of the underlying asset (btc) or bear the risk when the ETF holder asks for payment. That is, if fuckery can be ruled out. Which is a big IF.

The swedes have an ETN that tracks Bitcoin only. They call it an etf. As I understand it it is an ETN though.

You can buy that ETN (called Bitcoin tracker or something similar) on Fidelity (even retirement accounts can buy).
I bought a little just to see how it works. It does track btc mostly OK. Big gaps because of weekends, of course.
Trades as CXBTF (in US).
https://xbtprovider.com/products/bitcoin-tracker-one
4414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 03:30:06 AM
BTC did not "like" the GOT ending, or so it seems, lol.
All eyes on Tuesday.

I always "marveled" at Wallstreet's ability to plunge the asset a day or two before the good news and pump it before bad.
So many examples. I remember one in particular.
In 2003, rumors were spreading that AAPL is about to buy Disney and this depressed AAPL stock.
Large blocks were purchased by people in the know, apparently (check the volume), and a few days later AAPL announced iTunes and the stock went on a multi-year tear.
4415  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CBS '60 Minutes' 5/19/19 on Bitcoin. Will it cause FOMO or FUD? (Take the Poll!) on: May 20, 2019, 02:49:42 AM
The second they mention anything about fiat price, I am turning it off.
What a waste of time. CBS you owe me 16 time coins.

Charlie you are not the Moses of bitcoin you are the false prophet who did it for self profit.

Read the first sentence of the white paper, you changed bitcoin into fiat, contrary to the whole vision.



nice, albeit small, yacht, though  Wink.
4416  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 02:46:47 AM
I think that conversing about alts distracts (for the most part) from bitcoin, which is the topic here.
Very infrequently it might be OK just to contrast and/or compare.
Not every other post, please.
4417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CBS '60 Minutes' 5/19/19 on Bitcoin. Will it cause FOMO or FUD? (Take the Poll!) on: May 20, 2019, 12:15:06 AM
I also vote for : "meh"
They did not explain it properly.
Besides, they tried to say that $5 bill is also only supported by "faith", but any noicoiner would just sigh in disbelief:
"I have $5 bucks right here and it is real, I can just get a big mac by spending it, duh!"
Not sure why the knowledge about btc spreads so slowly.
4418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2019, 10:42:26 PM
A wild theory: btc is being held below 8K so Van Eck ETF would be slightly below $200000/share once approved.
This would allow a nice appreciation from the get go to exceed the stock market price flagship (BRK-A) at $306355.
Nah...I don't really believe this, but I do think that the approval or move toward approval is 50:50 this time around (at least definitely higher than 10:90).

I think that it is higher than 10:90 too, but 50:50?  Do you really believe that is the approval likelihood?  And if a large number of others believe that the probability that the odds, this time, are 50:50, then that would give further explanation to BTC's current bullish posture... Personally, I don't believe that people (let's say "smart money") believes that an ETF has anywhere near 50:50 odds of approval...,, even if they believe the odds are becoming higher than 10:90.

Some unknown, but substantial probability, hence we popped 1000 points straight up as we approach the date.
If not, i can see us losing 500-800 points easily.
I wouldn't suggest going 100X or even 5X in any direction, lol.
4419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2019, 05:16:21 PM
A wild theory: btc is being held below 8K so Van Eck ETF would be slightly below $200000/share once approved.
This would allow a nice appreciation from the get go to exceed the stock market price flagship (BRK-A) at $306355.
Nah...I don't really believe this, but I do think that the approval or move toward approval is 50:50 this time around (at least definitely higher than 10:90).
4420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 11:42:25 PM
kudos to bitcoin,
it made the last few years still
more interesting
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