Analysis

[Wind_FURY]

And THAT may have been the very recipe Composite Groups (Whales) were looking for to implement their next bullish move; knowing they would have to contend with less resistance.  In fact, they would receive additional assistance without having to spend as much capital.

Then if Bitfinex has been drained by users "buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw", would the rally quickly reverse, or do the "composite groups" have control over the market by now?

Bitfinex's cold wallet address, https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

the fact that bitfinex is trading below the other exchanges now suggests that most of the buying pressure is coming from elsewhere at this point. add the fact that shorts are obviously being squeezed on bitfinex too---about 4k BTC shorts have closed into this pump over $6k---it's obvious the rally isn't hinging on bitfinex anymore. quite reminiscent of 2017 if you ask me.

it's not that any entities have control over the market. smart whales are just following the path of least resistance, which was obviously UP.

Then I believe the next question should be "is the market currently over-leveraged, and when will this rally stop?"

It would be stupid to assume that the market is being moved absent of margin buy orders.

[greensheep]

It's hard to believe that BTC will hit  10K after a bottom of 3.1K, without some kind of correction along the way.
This would be more than 300% rise...?
For what timeframe is the master giving is prediction?
is this for 2019?? Or untill summer??
If price keeps on going parabolic it would reach that price in june/july.

Anyway with BTC expect the unexpected...

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks for the good translation, Andergriff.

Yes... Exactamente!!!   A much more understandable way of phrasing what was actually said in terms of trading lingo (rather than a kind of out of context abstraction - that google translate will frequently provide)...  Great.

[figmentofmyass]

the fact that bitfinex is trading below the other exchanges now suggests that most of the buying pressure is coming from elsewhere at this point. add the fact that shorts are obviously being squeezed on bitfinex too---about 4k BTC shorts have closed into this pump over $6k---it's obvious the rally isn't hinging on bitfinex anymore. quite reminiscent of 2017 if you ask me.

it's not that any entities have control over the market. smart whales are just following the path of least resistance, which was obviously UP.

Then I believe the next question should be "is the market currently over-leveraged, and when will this rally stop?"

It would be stupid to assume that the market is being moved absent of margin buy orders.

it's obvious that shorts were over-leveraged, with shorts massively outnumbering longs on bitfinex and the bitmex funding rate going constantly negative over the past week or two. that situation is beginning to even out now as shorts squeeze and bulls buy in, but longs haven't risen above shorts yet. it'll still be a while before longs become overextended IMO.

if we rise to $10k like the master expects, i'm sure longs will be feeling much heavier by then.

[Hope_Trader]

the fact that bitfinex is trading below the other exchanges now suggests that most of the buying pressure is coming from elsewhere at this point. add the fact that shorts are obviously being squeezed on bitfinex too---about 4k BTC shorts have closed into this pump over $6k---it's obvious the rally isn't hinging on bitfinex anymore. quite reminiscent of 2017 if you ask me.

it's not that any entities have control over the market. smart whales are just following the path of least resistance, which was obviously UP.

Then I believe the next question should be "is the market currently over-leveraged, and when will this rally stop?"

It would be stupid to assume that the market is being moved absent of margin buy orders.

it's obvious that shorts were over-leveraged, with shorts massively outnumbering longs on bitfinex and the bitmex funding rate going constantly negative over the past week or two. that situation is beginning to even out now as shorts squeeze and bulls buy in, but longs haven't risen above shorts yet. it'll still be a while before longs become overextended IMO.

if we rise to $10k like the master expects, i'm sure longs will be feeling much heavier by then.

Bitcoin price consistently seems to be driven by idiotic traders more than anything.

Traders who become so biased they do things like short this run again and again and again.... This along with the strange bottom structure (which starts to look like the tail end of a giant stop hunt), leaves bitcoin moving in max pain scenario. Absolute maximum pain is we don't retrace ever again IMO

[Millionero]

Bitcoin price consistently seems to be driven by idiotic traders more than anything.

Traders who become so biased they do things like short this run again and again and again.... This along with the strange bottom structure (which starts to look like the tail end of a giant stop hunt), leaves bitcoin moving in max pain scenario. Absolute maximum pain

No pain, no gain.

[ene1980]

It's hard to believe that BTC will hit  10K after a bottom of 3.1K, without some kind of correction along the way.
This would be more than 300% rise...?

The way in which the market is breaking every resistance just blows my mind, if you look at the stock market a few days back the market was crashing because of the economic trade war going on with Iran and China and i am not sure whether it has any significance in the price of bitcoin moving higher, either way it is a good time for all the bitcoin investors, we might see a small correction in the mean time but never expect a big dip like we saw in the stock market at this stag, either way it was an unexpected rise to these levels in a short period of time and hopefully will stay like this till the halving next year.

[Naida_BR]

$ 10k, then $ 6k.

I could see this happening. If we get as far as $10K, we probably won't be going below the $6K area again.

The way we sliced through the triangle apex from 2018 with no resistance caught many of us (including me) by surprise. If we can remain above it, the market will keep squeezing the bears for some time. $10K isn't out of the question.

In my opinion, this sudden and rough decrease is going to happen if bitcoin price is going to rise instantly.
If the upward trend is abrupt then the downward trend is going to follow the same direction.

[dmwardjr]

I currently see us continuing sideways within a relatively tight trading range until the May 25th to May 29th date range IF THE PRICE ACTION IS TO FOLLOW UP WITH A DOWNWARD PUSH.  However, we still have a chance for continued upward pressure until then.  So, if the price action does rise significantly between now and the May 25 to 29 date range, that date range could be "extended" as a result of a significant upward move affecting the movement of the indicator lines in multiple time frames.

Video Publication titled, "Part 2: Sideways @ Worst to May 25, 2019; Could Continue Higher"  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CYAtPkfI-Part-2-Sideways-Worst-to-May-25-2019-Could-Continue-Higher/

I still see upward pressure continuing for the long term to at least the last week of June or first week of July at a minimum.
Video Publication titled, "Bitcoin Brain Storm Part 1; High Time Frames (2-Week to 3-Day)."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CQOgL8QW-Bitcoin-Brain-Storm-Part-1-High-Time-Frames-2-Week-to-3-Day/

The Litecoin Block Halving is playing a major role in the length of time of this current bull run.  The fact we have 75% less bitcoin on exchanges than we did back in 2017 is an additional reason for this current bull run continuing to late June or mid July.  Less Bitcoin on the exchanges will decrease the affect "supply" will have in its conflict with demand.  We have a LOT of people who did not accumulate coins at lower levels. 

Some are still waiting for a significant dip to accumulate coins and will likely end up surrendering to FOMO as the price continues stair stepping higher.  As the price continues higher it makes the position of those who buy at higher prices "weaker."  They feel less secure in their position at the higher price they paid to accumulate.  Hence, the term "Weak Hands."  We don't have enough "Weak Hands" in the market yet for a significant dump in my opinion.  However, the number of "Weak Hands" will increase over time.

[keystroke]

"Hy чтo, тpeyгoльник в чeтвepкe и нa 10к$?"

Google translation: "What is the triangle in the four and $ 10k?"

[dmwardjr]

"Downward Pressure Continues Till May 25 or May 27 Before Pump."

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/oXXqX6fs-Downward-Pressure-Continues-Till-May-25-or-May-27-Before-Pump/

If you are wondering what ETHUSD and LTCUSD looks like when comparing to BTCUSD, that's shown in this video publication: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCUSD/fIYUe5q3-IMPORTANT-Video-for-Those-Doubtful-of-Bull-Run-Approaching/

If you remember correctly, it was during the LiteCoin block halving event of 2015 when "masterluc" called it quits (for the most part) on this forum.  Here we are again approaching a LiteCoin block halving event, but for 2019.  I'm anticipating similar pump.  Hopefully, he will come back for this block halving event.   Here's an article from February on the upcoming block halving:  https://blockmanity.com/news/litecoin-ltc-second-halving-what-is-it-and-who-does-it-concern/

[fright]

I am curious where do you see ltc/btc ratio longterm?

[dmwardjr]

I am curious where do you see ltc/btc ratio longterm?

This may seem like a "busy" chart to you:  LTCUSD (top); BTCUSD (middle); LTCBTC (bottom):  I have not done the math of BTCUSD and LTCUSD price projections to see what that would equate to for LTCBTC.  But this is my estimate...

Reversal to upward pressure COULD begin as soon as May 27th but may not see reversal until a couple of days into June.



Bitcoin/USD - Bitstamp:

[figmentofmyass]

"Hy чтo, тpeyгoльник в чeтвepкe и нa 10к$?"

Google translation: "What is the triangle in the four and $ 10k?"

trying to decipher his words is always tricky, but i think i understand what he means.

a wave 4 triangle, followed by a final leg up to the $10k target. it seems very plausible to me. in EW terms we should be in wave C by my count.

something like this:

[Biodom]

I am curious where do you see ltc/btc ratio longterm?

This may seem like a "busy" chart to you:  LTCUSD (top); BTCUSD (middle); LTCBTC (bottom):  I have not done the math of BTCUSD and LTCUSD price projections to see what that would equate to for LTCBTC.  But this is my estimate...

Reversal to upward pressure COULD begin as soon as May 27th but may not see reversal until a couple of days into June.

img snipped

Bitcoin/USD - Bitstamp:

Something like your green line is my favorite scenario as well.

[dmwardjr]

I am curious where do you see ltc/btc ratio longterm?

This may seem like a "busy" chart to you:  LTCUSD (top); BTCUSD (middle); LTCBTC (bottom):  I have not done the math of BTCUSD and LTCUSD price projections to see what that would equate to for LTCBTC.  But this is my estimate...

Reversal to upward pressure COULD begin as soon as May 27th but may not see reversal until a couple of days into June.

img snipped

Bitcoin/USD - Bitstamp:

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/f1kaZFMj/[/img

Something like your green line is my favorite scenario as well.

I'm leaning more towards the Green Trek as well.

[Andergriff]

@Wanga, 22 May

Hy чтo, тpeyгoльник в чeтвepкe и нa 10к$?

translate:

Well, the triangle in the four (means: 4th wave) and to $10k?

[illyiller]

This is one of those times where I always wonder......how deeply do I respect Elliott Wave?

Wave 4s (and triangles) are penultimate moves. If you believe this is a Wave 4 triangle, then surely you should sell the triangle thrust. $10K or maybe higher, but wherever it tops, a deep correction should follow.

If we believe in EW, that is.

[adaseb]

I tried trading and learnt Elliot waves in the past but it's extremely difficult to trade it in real time. It does a great job when you are applying it in hindsight but doesn't really help if you are trying to trade and make real money.

I agree that $10K or close to $10K is on the books since it looks like we had a massive inverse head and shoulder and the neckline at $8400 will most likely break. And after that looking at weekly chart there is no resistance until $9800 area which was the bull trap of May 2018. I remember everybody assumed that it was the last time when BTC was going to be below $10K and the complete opposite happened instead, never hit $10K and stayed below it since last March 2018.

[illyiller]

I tried trading and learnt Elliot waves in the past but it's extremely difficult to trade it in real time. It does a great job when you are applying it in hindsight but doesn't really help if you are trying to trade and make real money.

I wouldn't trade based off lower degree counts. It's better to keep an active count (and also have some alternatives in mind) so you see the bigger picture and recognize when certain things are happening.....turning points (tops/bottoms), the beginning of impulsive primary waves, etc. That tells you which direction to trade in, which is vital.

Where does masterluc post these days? "Wanga?" Does anyone have a link?