I think that is a bad thing for a few reasons: GPU mining is fun, it
adds the visceral gold-like aspect for users, and its inclusive, and
p2p friendly.
I wish this were true, but the feedback I've seen constantly is that many people are insulted and angered by the small amounts they get from a single small mining setup, even some who were told what to expect going into it... even when the amounts they get will actually become non-trivial when accumulated over weeks of 24/7 mining.
There are people who find it fun, but it's certainly not everyone.
Humans are a funny breed. They seem to be demotivated by the fact that someone else is making 100x more even when that person has >100x more operating costs!
ASIC mining is exclusive, not in principle - nice ASIC
PCI cards and USB boxes could be built in $100, $200, $500, $1000
increments etc - but in practice because anyone with skills to make
cards has an obvious incentive to mine them themselves rather than
sell them.
I'm now not aware of anyone making devices without selling them. (The one party I was aware of was convinced to change their practices— consider, if they don't sell devices their consolidations may threaten the decentralized security assumptions of Bitcoin— even if this doesn't immediacy debase the coins they produce the community may change the PoW and make their hardware worthless, there are some subtle reasons why changing the PoW is more viable than you might guess).
Small devices should be available soon in a number of forms. The fact that the first major wave of deployments will be large devices also gives some advantage to smaller participants in the long run, since they won't be saddled with big investments in 110nm infrastructure. (Not to mention, that 110nm infrastructure will probably eventually resold to people who can use the waste heat for low prices)
It's my personal hope that the somewhat reduced access to the relevant equipment will be offset from decreased competition by people who are stealing resources to mine and as a result be at least a wash in terms of equality of access.
destroying
the p2p nature, and essentially removing the need for or value of
distributed time-stamping using hashcash.
I am continually very concerned by this, but I don't think the deployment of ASIC is by far the biggest threat to the distributed nature of Bitcoin. I think the far bigger threats are that almost all mining is done through a few centralized "pools" and that fewer and fewer users run actual network nodes that independently validate the rules of the system— instead using hosted wallets and various kinds of thin clients. If your highly casual GPU miners are just blindly selling their computing power to a pool, it doesn't contribute much to the distributed nature of the system. (It does make the economy more distributed, but they can do that by buying coins).
I suspect the network difficulty might even drop facing a wall of
ASICs over the next year or so if GPU mining goes the way of CPU
mining
The sales from one hardware vendor alone (avalon) are right now somewhat over 1500 68GH/s units as I understand it, this is enough hash to replace the entire hashrate we had from GPUs and FPGAs in January five times over. The belief is that BFL has sold many more than this.
Well my idea is this aim to get to 50:50 hashcash scrypt
I would expect this to lower costs for an attacker to reorganize the chain to conflict transactions by giving him choice of hardware.
one may want to allow the scrypt size
parameter to be network dynamic like difficulty
This would make _validation_ expensive too. A shame, as the tiny scrypt size in LTC doesn't really achieve memory hardness... and I'd bet that dedicated hardware would get a _larger_ speedup then we get for sha256 because of this. An interesting question is: how do you create a function which is strongly memory-hard to search but not (/less) memory-hard to validate?
There are other interesting ideas in the space of memory-hardness. For example, you could define a POW function which is an operation over the spendable transaction index which then proves that miners have high capacity for validating transactions— perhaps better aligning the operating motivates... and eliminating the miners that just blindly sell computing power without having any interest or capacity to participate in the actual validation. (Using data in a globally known merkle tree is potentially one way to make a asymmetrically memory-hard function)
What a foolish person
Hah. You and a lot of other people, actually. I spent time talking about cryptocurrency things with Hal due to his RPOW system before Bitcoin existed, and "used" bitcoin early on (well, as much as you can use it when almost no one else does!) but didn't bother keeping my wallet.
But whatever, Bitcoin is interesting and important regardless of what value people assign the coins and how much you "could have had" but don't.