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4541  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The sky is falling! The sky is falling! on: June 20, 2011, 08:26:01 PM
LIFE'S A BEACH!!!!!

EAT SAND!!!!!!
4542  Other / Off-topic / Our mystery miner? on: June 20, 2011, 07:25:35 PM
http://www.thinq.co.uk/2011/6/20/japans-8-petaflop-k-computer-fastest-earth/
4543  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin will be on the Peter Schiff Show 2011-06-20 at 10AM EDT on: June 20, 2011, 06:11:11 PM
If the future looks anything like Schiff or Olov think that it could, then ...

Did you mean Dmitry Orlov and he's semi-classic "Closing the Collapse Gap"?

Yes.
4544  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin will be on the Peter Schiff Show 2011-06-20 at 10AM EDT on: June 20, 2011, 03:22:54 PM

That's probably true for the most part. I for one am a silver guy and initially dismissed BTC. Not long ago a member of the gold community wrote a piece about BTC in a positive manner and I reevaluated my position. I think he pushed a lot of activity into BTC because shortly thereafter the price ran up like nobody's biz but I think the BTC community largely missed this as it's not their world. Just like the silver and gold people largley do not frequent here.

I've been a silver bug  for decades.  Have never sold an ounce of what I have, even after discovering Bitcoin last year.  I'm an econo-geek, and versed enough in the crypto to understand how the system could work, even though I can't dive into the code and determine for myself it it actually does what others may say that it does.

Mostly I consider them complementary.  If the future looks anything like Schiff or Olov think that it could, then a return to in person barter trade is likely, and thus Bitcoin will prove to be a useless endeavor.  However, I don't consider that remotely likely, as even in the days of sail trade prior to the wireless telegraph; communications were required to facilitate trans-Atlantic trade, and that was largely limited in credit trust due to the physical nature of gold money.  Therefore, the Internet will not die easily, and there will be groups in every city with deep vested interests in maintaining some kind of Internet link long after the cars stop moving due to lack of fuel.  So even a 100+  year reversal of fortunes in transit technology would benefit from the existance of Bitcoin, a Mad Max scenerio notwithstanding.

I think that there are more metal bugs, and vastly more Austrians, engaged in Bitcoin than many would otherwise be inclined to believe.
4545  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin press hits, notable sources on: June 20, 2011, 02:38:47 PM
http://www.libertariannews.org/2011/06/18/the-economics-of-bitcoin-how-bitcoins-act-as-money/

I don't know if this one was ever posted.
4546  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin press hits, notable sources on: June 20, 2011, 02:28:03 PM
Looks like a Bitcoin exchange scammer left a comment on Nerdr.  Interesting read...

http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/

I seriously doubt it.  The only person that could be is Vladimer, and there is no way he's stupid enough to put this crap into an email to a hater.  More likely someone trying to add fuel to the fire and depress the price so that they can buy in.
4547  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin will be on the Peter Schiff Show 2011-06-20 at 10AM EDT on: June 20, 2011, 04:31:55 AM
Peter Schiff is a well known Austrian economist with a damn good track record of predictions.  He's ran for Congress in the past.  If Peter Schiff even hints at having put any significant amount of his own funds into Bitcoin, there is going to be a major rally regardless of the issues at MtGox.  He also knows this about himself, so odds are good that he will not make any obvious moves towards Bitcoin.  If he thinks poorly of Bitcoin, he will say so, and then the trade value is going to drop for some time.
4548  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Theoretical limits, given 14 days per difficulty and 50% increases in difficulty on: June 20, 2011, 04:03:04 AM

50 days from the next retarget which is due in 6 days (June 25) is August 14th.

Bet: 0.5 BTC Cheesy


I accept.  Just for clarity, I'm taking the under.  I will grant you the 10% variance.
4549  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Absolutely love Bitcoin! on: June 19, 2011, 04:16:28 AM
I believe the hackers are working on a way to decrypt the wallet file using trojans/malware...


RULE: if YOU can access it, then THEY can access it.

Well, yes and no.  Once the wallet.dat file is encrypted as a standard operating procedure, there will be a piece of data that does not reside upon your hard drive for a trojan to find.  Namely your secred key/passcode.
4550  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Would some nice gentleman send me a tiny amount so I can check my client works? on: June 19, 2011, 04:08:23 AM
Since you asked so politely, which seems to have become so rare on this forum these days, I shall.

EDIT: I sent you a quarter-bit.  Please pay it forward.
4551  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Bitcoin mining will never pay off now, at least with GPUs. on: June 19, 2011, 04:01:35 AM
Having a 5 day account and only posting things that discredit bitcoin/mtgox/client software...that points to obvious troll.

You seem to not listen. I have already explained this umpteen times, but I will try again:

I have never discredited bitcoin.  I think it is a great investment.  I only discredit dedicated mining for now.
Mt. Gox has a simple incompatability with IE 8, which I explained.  Other than that, I have had no problem with Mt. Gox.
The client software, I have no idea about.



Click on your account tab...you are aware we can read all of your posts right?  Tell me which one of your posts was helpful or new to the community.  I couldn't find one.

so you read ALL his posts? jesus dude.. GET A LIFE.


There wasn't very many when I started...and since more than one thread was started for the same thing in the same day it seems odd.

As does some noob who supposedly dumps 10k into mining only to decide that he was stupid.

Actually 12,000$

If I offered you $6K for your entire cluster, would you sell?
4552  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Bitcoin mining will never pay off now, at least with GPUs. on: June 19, 2011, 12:38:54 AM
I've had a good run, but I'll be selling my 3x5870's soon.

Let me know when you wish to sell, I might be interested in a discounted set.  I'm looking to build a miner/heater for my garage this fall.
4553  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Theoretical limits, given 14 days per difficulty and 50% increases in difficulty on: June 19, 2011, 12:29:26 AM
A simple over/under straight bet.  Based on your calculations, at the calculated date.  If the difficulty is, say 98% or higher of your projected amount, you win.  If lower than 98% or your projected difficulty, I win.

Five bitcoins is the wager.


Well as you can see here I do not have 5.0 bitcoins : p  (That is the address in my signature too, by the way).

I may only end up with 5 bitcoins just as the 2016th block is hashed in this current 877k difficulty round. Based on my calculations I'll only end up mining a grand total of 9 bit coins in the next 6 difficulties (55.8 days at the 9.3 days-per-difficulty at 50% increases from above).  So wagering more than half my projected wealth seems a bit too steep for me : (  15 days worth of hashing!

What projected date, though.  

Block explorer lists the next difficulty at 1200518.48071190, which is a 36% increase.   To be 50%, it would need to be 131k.  Obviously the lower the earlier difficulties, the less likely it is that my 50% calculations hold up by the 6th difficulty round~

The wager can be any amount of bitcoins that you wish to commit.  It's not about the amount for myself, but the fun of it.  

9.3 days * 6 difficulty adjustments = 55.8 days.  So make it 60 days from  tomorrow, Sunday June 18th at noon Eastern time is when the bet is final.

Bet starts with the next difficulty setting the bar, but I'll lay out the difficulty over/under based upon the estimate presently on bitcoinwatch.com.

((((((1,052,445 next difficulty, estimated) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * .98

11988006.328125 * .98 = 140838049808701.7442626953125, or over 130 million times higher hashing power than the next estimated difficulty?  Wow, did I do that right?

So the over under difficulty would be 140,838,049,808,701 dropping the decimals, assuming that the estimated difficulty is the actual difficulty.

Feel free to check my math, please.


EDIT: I definately did something wrong here.  Yup, decimal screwup.  11748246.2015625 is 98% of 11988006.328125.  So the over under would be 11,748,246.  About ten times the next estimated difficulty.  That sounds more like it.
4554  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Theoretical limits, given 14 days per difficulty and 50% increases in difficulty on: June 18, 2011, 04:20:20 PM
Hmm, maybe.

Care to make a wager?

Perhaps good sir.  What are the terms ?

A simple over/under straight bet.  Based on your calculations, at the calculated date.  If the difficulty is, say 98% or higher of your projected amount, you win.  If lower than 98% or your projected difficulty, I win.

Five bitcoins is the wager.
4555  Economy / Economics / Re: When will the $15 barrier be broken? on: June 18, 2011, 04:14:40 PM
No, economies of scale apply.

With current mainstream technologies you can get a hefty competitive advantage by getting industrial rather than residential power rates.  In my neck of the woods that cuts the power cost nearly in half (less if you shut down during peak times).


The residential user in some areas can get electric rates lowered if they are willing to intergrate their demands into the power company's smart network so that they can directly reduce demand.  For a time, I had a programmable thermostat that would do exactly that.  It would be trivial for such an input to control the residential miner as well. 

That aside, the professional miner is certainly going to dominate, but mining will never be an exclusively professional endeavor.  If I use a small miner as a heater in my garage, linked to a thermostat or not, but only during the heating season for my area, the cost of electricity for mining is, at worst, only the difference in the cost between electric resistive heating and the least expensive alternative available in my area.  This is exactly why I say that Icelanders are uniquely well suited to owning small, personal mining clusters. 
4556  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Is bitcoin legal? Not according to U.S. government on: June 18, 2011, 07:32:00 AM
Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited about bitcoin, but I think the Feds are not going to be happy.

With all due respect, but... who gives a damn about the US?

I care because I have to live in the same house with the bully.  You should care because he is also known to leave his own house and beat the kids on the next block whenever he starts feeling insecure about himself.  And he carries a damn big stick.
4557  Other / Politics & Society / Re: This is where I stop believing Obama is possibly a rational, intelligent man. on: June 18, 2011, 07:29:08 AM

Okay, okay, I've finally been baited into a discussion i swore I would never have again because it goes around and around in circles.


And have you ever considered the possibility that this discussion goes in circles because of the single common denominator, yourself?
4558  Other / Politics & Society / Re: This is where I stop believing Obama is possibly a rational, intelligent man. on: June 18, 2011, 07:27:23 AM

FAIL

Your premise is false, therefore the remainder of the question cannot be rationally answered.  Try and establish a logical reasoning behind the idea that living in a lib society = forced to abide by lib ideals.

Okay, okay, I've finally been baited into a discussion i swore I would never have again because it goes around and around in circles.

But it will take me a minute to make that point, if you'll indulge answering me some questions first. I promise I won't call anyone capitalist swine or apologists for tyranny or anything.

1) We wake up tomorrow in magical Libertopia. How do we divide the land? How do we divide the wealth?


It's a loaded question because we both know that we don't have an answer.  We don't know how "Libertopia" would work out questions of natural resource ownership or real estate because it's never been tried and the answer is highly dependent upon how a truly free people choose to organize.  From homesteading to high rise condos, those issues can be solved in more than one way.

As for how do we divide the wealth?  Under what conditions would we be dividing anything?  This is a false premise to begin with, that there is a standard way to 'share the wealth', or even a prohibition on coming up with such a method.

Quote

2) We are living happily in Libertopia for many years when a group of workers travel back to the moon for the first time. They manage to set up some giant mirrors at great work and expense that send a concentrated beam of solar energy to a solar panel factory they have back on earth that they sell electricity from. They also mine a bunch of moon rock to bring back and sell for souvenirs. Do they own the moon?


Some of it, yes.  They have a claim, certainly.  Did they all come back?  If so, they have abandoned their claims to that which their developed mirrors do not require.  They have a claim on the mirrors only because they are (I assume) still in active use.  Those whom remain have at least as much as they can improve.  That's actually a pretty easy one, and one that has been mentally tortured since The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
4559  Other / Politics & Society / Re: American-liberals, socialists and statists, what is your idea of liberty? on: June 18, 2011, 06:26:31 AM
I'm a libertarian socialist,

That's still a contradiction in terms.
4560  Economy / Economics / Re: When will the $15 barrier be broken? on: June 18, 2011, 05:08:31 AM


<sarcasm>

That would be a wonderful development, get all this low brow mining trash out of the way.

</sarcasm>

Somehow, I doubt that mining will ever be an endeavor exclusive to "only the rich".

Lol.  What I mean is that soon its gonna take a room full of GPU's to make any amount of profit worth mining.  I haven't done the math but it would take a lot of money to get that started, and even more money to keep it going. It could talk a few months to make your money back at the prices that where happening at 17:00 utc.  Prices have rebounded but I still wonder at what point the casual miner will be squeeze out of the market.

It's just as profitable for a city full of people mining on one card as it is for all of those cards in one room.  Likely more, because if the cards remain distributed, then the waste heat can still be used to offseat home heating needs in winter.
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