Heres the volume in BTC.  I think its hard to say that we aren't still in an overall trend of declining volume since Dec 2017.  

The cryptowinter recovery was on very low volume, but after the biggest spike in volume in Bitcoin history.

We don’t have anything to signal a capitulation or reversal.  Volume is piss poor.   So I think I have to assume it is just an oscillation and the model is still correct.   

LTC ATH was 0.05 BTC in November 2013.

It is now 0.008 and has never recovered.  

Most shitcoins will never recover from the 2018 crash.  I don’t think we can call BCH dead yet, but it’s not looking particularly healthy.

Overview shots.  All of the lines currently intersect around 12 November.   I would expect a small break upwards sometime in the interim to delay intersection into December.  

I find this is really interesting.  I am getting a divergence on my model.  Target was $5700 but we bounced at $6100.  So why did that happen?  Is it traders trading in anticipation of the bounce?  Is there something deeper going on here?  Or is this a quick swing on the way down to $5700?  I don't know.  Historically speaking, September should be a bloody month followed by an October rally.  But it should be too early for an October rally.  So my model still calls for $5700 but the price is currently going in the other direction.  I have gotten stopped out on Eth shorts now so am stopping all trading until I figure out what is going on. 

80F here and not a cloud in the sky

I can’t be bothered arguing with Jbear about bcash lol.  It’s much too nice a day for that.  

Relative hashrate.

Yes I was making good money on the run from $195 down to $165.   I have since blown about 5 tight stops in a row close to entry so I have stopped and am sitting on my hands. Still up overall but not easy money right now.  We are in the middle of the wedge so I don’t have any guidance as to whether we are going up or down.   I thought we were turning down again after $220 and we did for awhile but then we copped a bounce and are back at $220 now.

If we keep tracking sideways like this we are going to hit the cryptowinter support line in another month or so.

I expect we will rally first and then really collide with it in Dec / Jan which is where we should get the huge volatility. 

Risk limit on Bitmex for a single BTC/USD trade is 200 BTC.

Down we go.

Decision point

So we are bumping our head on the 7 September high.  This is a weak resistance line but volume is generally poor. 



1 day view showing we are in the bottom 40% of the wedge. External wedge lines are strong. Support line from cryptowinter is not yet in play.  

R/ethtrader will poo their pants when ETH busts that support line just like it busted $300.

What if nothing changing means that the price doesn’t change from over $6k?

If you are going to long BTC Mic at least wait for us to bounce off support before you do it.

1.  Decentralised PoS doesn’t even work in theory.  Core Devs keep kicking the Ice Age can down the road.

2.  Sharding is a fucking mess

3.  ETH blockchain is well over 1TB and growing fast.

4. Even exchanges are having trouble keeping their ETH tips synched

5. Utility token ICOs are gone forever.  

6. ETH still only does 16 tps

7.  There is no monetary policy with ETH.  It is just what the Core Devs make up on the day

8.  Vitalik is a a key man risk

9.  Solidity is insecure and unsuited for a store of value.

10.  If you are going to be centralized with PoS you may as well use Stellar which at least works smoothly

11.  One NFT with modest adoption (cryptokitties) crippled ETH for days

Shitcoins are worth shit

Bob

If you want a new hobby come short ETH on light leverage with tight stops.  It’s very satisfying and healthier than drinking all day.