The formulas are:

Odds away win*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)
Odds draw*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)

So your stake for draw: 2.55*100/(2.55+3.35) = 43.22
For away win: 3.35*100/(2.55+3.35) = 56.78

I used an online calculator though, which you can find just via googling, for example this one. Just put in the odds and you will see.


This said bookie was/is Interwetten. B-a-h is austrian bookie also, they have big betting industry in Austria. Intertops, Wetten-Schwechat, bwin is austrian as well imo and gazillions more, though some of them have disappeared in the last years

Brighton v Burnley - 1
Southampton v Newcastle - 1
Everton v Man Utd - 1
Crystal Palace v Leeds - 1
Chelsea v Sheffield Utd - 1
West Ham v Fulham - 1
West Brom v Spurs - 2
Leicester City v Wolves - 1
Man City v Liverpool - 1
Arsenal v Aston Villa - 1

Betnomi user name: tyKiwanuka

Thanks Betnomi & Trofo, very nice promo.

Well, sometimes the VAR only comes in late when the bookies have already re-opened the betting (with the then incorrect result).

In general all bets are voided then, but as always some bookies might take advantage of the situation and void the bets which are unfavourable for them and let the others stand. I have seen it all

The reason for these different odds is the number of possible outcomes. If you just have two possible outcomes, it's way easier to balance your book and thus you can have lower vig and better odds consequently. And accept bigger stakes also

That second screenshot with Genoa/Torino match has only two possible outcomes for both bets, but here I think, that the calculation is just done differently. For the AH0 bet, they just use their normal AH compiling, while for the DNB they take the 1X2 odds and go on from there, but not sure.

If you are really ambitious, you shouldn't take any DC "straight" bets on offer though, but make your own ones Take the Genoa vs Torino match again and you have these double chance odds (all screenhots taken from Sportsbet)



Here are the 1X2 odds:



Now I put my stake as the following (lets assume, I want to bet 100 units):

56.78 units on away win @2.55
43.22 units on the draw @3.35

Et voilá I have odds of @1.4479 and not @1.43 as SB offers me for using their pre-build double chance. There are tools to calculate your stakes or you just make your own in Excel in 1 minute. With 10sec of extra work, you will then win additional 1.4479 units, if you win your bet

For AH bets this usually doesn't work out, because you are using the 1X2 odds to build it and have this bigger vig there already. If I construct my own AH0 bet on Genoa for example with the 1X2 bets, I only get @1.9642, while SB offers me 2.02 for this bet in their AH markets already.

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There is/was an austrian bookmaker, who actually refunded only 90% of AH0 bets, if the game ended in a draw. Complete rip-off, but not sure, if they are still doing it.

Because Betfair is geo-restricted in gazillions of countries; the exchange that is. So only option for these people, like me, is to go via an agent and use Orbit. You have the same liquidity, odds and everything else. It's just missing an API to use trading software, which is a big disadvantage and you have to adapt to it. And then Orbit - and other WLE's in the past - have their own way of making some extra bucks, which is a bit risky and explained here.

Well, this is very lol f forgot to submit my picks for ESP like 3 rounds ago - or I did them, but something went wrong, maybe it was me - and was super annoyed with it. So I just made my picks for ITA, ESP and ENG for multiple rounds in advance and thus these picks for ITA were also made ages ago. Just checked the results and wow, what a round +8 places with one round, basically from bottom to top, Schalke's wet dream.

I admit not having too much clue about Serie A, so don't worry, I won't top the table in May. What I am capable of, you can see in ESP pool, where I am dead last and rightfully so. For La Liga I have even less clue, but I find this league super meh anyway. Sorry if this offends anyone But I still enjoy all kinds of pools, it's fun, even when you don't know what you are doing^^

Ist ja eine heisse Diskussion hier


Hehe, eventuell reden wir aneinander vorbei, but not sure. Also machen wir mal so:

Du hast 1000,- Euro gestern in BTC investiert, heute sind daraus 1600,- geworden. Nun möchtest du so viel Geld wie möglich wieder rausziehen (aus welchem Grund auch immer) ohne Steuern zahlen zu müssen. Wieviel kannst du dir auszahlen lassen, d.h zurück in Euro tauschen ? 600 oder 1600 ? Ich sage 1600.

Du kannst dir halt technisch nicht einfach nur Gewinn auszahlen lassen, denn in jedem BTC, den du verkaufst, steckt im Optimalfall immer Invest+Gewinn drin.

Wie ich Kollege papajaman verstanden hab, möchte er so viel Geld wie möglich rausnehmen, aber unter der Freigrenze bleiben und dann kann man natürlich mehr als 600,- Euro rausnehmen. Kann natürlich sein, dass ich ein Brett vorm Kopf habe, aber wenn wir das Beispiel mal komplett vereinfachen:

BTC Preis bei Kauf: 10.000 Euro
BTC Preis bei Verkauf (unterjährig): 16.000 Euro

1.000,- Euro investiert, Wert danach bei 1.600,- Euro. Jetzt kann ich wieder komplett alles verkaufen, kriege die 1.600,- Euro zurück und muss keine Steuern zahlen.

Wenn ich nur 600,- Euro auszahle, dann sind darin ja nur 225,- Euro Gewinn enthalten.

Placed a bet for Schalke AH-2 @1.8x in cup game for tomorrow against Schweinfurt. Can already see everyone screaming, but I don't care Schweinfurt just plays in Div4, if they actually get to play a game - their last two games were postponed, one probably due to Corona and the other because their opponents had a car accident while travelling to Schweinfurt. So Schweinfurt had only one competitive game in 6 weeks and they lost that one 0-2. Now one could say they are fresh, but don't think they will be sharp with just practicing

Game will be a home game for Schalke and take place in an empty Veltins Arena. Schalke has a Corona case, but seriously it doesn't matter who it is, they have to beat Schweinfurt here rather easily with at least 2 goals, which would be a push then. In this test match against Paderborn during international break, they did very well winning 5-1, maybe they are just paralyzed when it's Bundesliga^^ And in Bundesliga they did actually improve a tiny bit, say what you want. I'll take any Bundesliga team against a Div4 team in a home game with AH-2 for these odds. Let's go Schalke

Busy times for the refs this week and a lot of players will have some rest next weekend.

England

Wolverhampton - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Crystal Palace in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Too late to have any impact.

Spain

Loads of red cards in Spain this round

Alaves - Barca
Red Card: Alaves in 62nd minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Equalizer for Barca came instantly after the red card. Would have been interesting to see the odds after 1-1 and then maybe laying Barca next goal. Did anyone watch the markets and saw the odds ?

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Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 93rd minute, score 1-4
Final Score: 1-4

Late red card, no impact and game was decided already.

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Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.

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Valencia - Getafe
Red Card(s): Valencia in 56th minute, score 1-0 and Getafe in 98th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Now this is an interesting one Getafe took advantage and scored two to turn the game around, though only in 87th and 94th minute. They then got a red card themselves and Valencia scored the 2-2 via penalty in 100th minute, lol. Not sure if this penalty was caused by the red card, but such games are a traders dream. Though not very interesting for this "study", since this game was so unique and you won't find anything like that again in the next 500 games.

Italy

Roma - Fiorentina
Red Card: Fiorentina in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Nothing to report here.

---

Verona - Benevento
Red Card: Benevento in 73rd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 3-1

This is a scenario we had quite often already. The favourite and/or home team takes advantage of the strength in numbers and scores another goal, while the red-carded team pushes being one goal down.

Germany

Hoffenheim - Union Berlin
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 58th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-3

The only green one for this weekend. The red card resulted in a penalty for Union and laying them to score the next goal would have resulted in a profit (as would have laying them to win and then hedge), since Hoffenheim scored the equalizer in 80th minute. Union went on to win the game with two late goals, but we would have been out of the markets by then already

---

Another bad week for our red-carded teams. I more and more think, that it's really not worth to do any bets in favour of the red-carded teams. But otoh I also think it's not worth to back the other team, since the odds are often poor-ish. Maybe the markets in these games are already kind of perfect and there is no value to be found

Already told you in PM @Avirunes, but here again officially: Congratulations for the win As buwaytress said, sharing with only 1 person is good, when you "only" have 10 correct ones. So enjoy the money or re-invest in some good bets.


9/15, not too bad Real Sociedad and Bilbao were a lock for me, but SB had other plans^^ Well, Watford was kind of obvious, but I missed it.

Arsenal - Aston Villa
Atalanta - Inter Milan
Atletico MG - Flamengo RJ
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München
Chelsea - Sheffield United
Everton - Manchester United
FC Barcelona - Real Betis
Lazio Roma - Juventus Turin
Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach
Manchester City - Liverpool
Nice - Monaco
Paris Saint Germain - Rennes
RB Leipzig - SC Freiburg
Real Sociedad - Granada CF
Valladolid - Athletic Bilbao

Lots of tight-ish games this week, only Barca is below 1.50.

I thought all the time that you were one of those two with 9 correct ones and was happy to see Flamengo lose, because would have meant you are very likely to win. But what @morvillz7z said above is really true and annoying. Can´t be that hard to update everything near real-time or make a little extra field, where it says how many games are included thus far. Or SB needs to make it mandatory for all participants to post their picks in this thread; I can update real-time^^ Anyway, I hope you are among the winners Avirunes

Here are the results from our thread:



Very good result from buwaytress and notblox1 too, well done, but the 100 fame points go to Master Avirunes this week

And all-time stats:



Avirunes gets his third win and catches up with ralle14 in that category. Trofo still with the best average, if we disregard notblox1 due to tiny sample size

Yes, it was Miamis defense that won the game. Tua and his offense were really pathetic, middle Q4 they had like 154 total yards. Surely a bit lucky to have won this bet, but defense is part of the game as well and I have lost bets that way multiple times too

Some surprising results odds-wise in early games (Bengals and Vikings) and BAL-PIT was really nice to watch. Some bad luck for the Ravens with the injuries to their O-Line - without those they would have won imo. But as above, injuries are also part of the game

Now lets see what SF can do.....

I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

I only got to watch very few unfortunately and had basically no bets, because there are so many other different things going on and watching/following Cycling is really time-consuming. The Vuelta has strangely always been my favourite GT, because it used to take place when there was also the Tennis US Open running and NFL started as well around that time always. Were always super busy, but very exciting weeks, where I would watch the Vuelta 3-4 hours, then switch over to Tennis and later that day night add some NFL, amazing

Looking at the GC, it's the skijumper's to lose with the TT coming up on Tuesday and the rest of the week not being super demanding at least profile-wise. Only obstacle will be the Alto de la Covatilla (11.7k @6.9%), where you won't lose a lot of time normally. But there is the Angliru today as you mentioned, which is one hell of a climb.

Ah, thanks, I actually missed this game completely - thats why I thought 8/8 for the leaders - and I have done it before, because ENG2 is still not on my radar at all And iirc it was you who pointed it out last time as well^^ Edited the post above with the correct table.

8/10 is really good with Barca losing as huge fav and Gladbach/Bilbao/Barnsley winning as home dogs. Good luck @Avirunes (and to all others, if you are still hoping )

Not too bad overall boys, quite some green, though there are some high-flyers again in the leaderboard with 8/8, if I am not mistaken (I thought they wouldn't show up). Welcome to the party @arallmuus



That X my friend picked for Dortmund hurts me badly, but I already had some serious talk with him and I will take over next week again most likely

With 3 games behind the leaders, I am already preparing for next week and had a look into my crystal ball, lets see how many I get right.

Arsenal - Aston Villa
Atalanta - Inter Milan
Atletico MG - Flamengo RJ
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München
Chelsea - Sheffield United
Everton - Manchester United
FC Barcelona - Real Betis
Lazio Roma - Juventus Turin
Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach
Manchester City - Liverpool
Nice - Monaco
Paris Saint Germain - Rennes
RB Leipzig - SC Freiburg
Real Sociedad - Granada CF
Valladolid - Athletic Bilbao

We could make a contest out of guessing the games for MM^^

Hehe, that would be super boring Augsburg definitely has a good team for their standards and they have established themselves as a solid middle of the pack team with some relegation worries here and there. They won't finish in Top5 though, might even get relegated, since this season there is no really bad team apart from Bielefeld maybe, who have poorest quality squad-wise. Mainz, Schalke, Cologne will collect their points and then you have teams like Freiburg, Union, Hertha, Bremen, Augsburg who will join the party at the bottom of the table sooner or later. And they can all beat each other on any given day.


Hard to tell, odds look ok to me. Leverkusen has always been priced around the 2.00 mark in recent years playing at Freiburg, but they weren't super successful with only one win and going 1-4-2. Both teams are healthy-ish, but Leverkusen had EL game on Thursday evening at Prague, which is no long trip, but I don't like betting on EL teams three days later in an away game. Looks like a draw, maybe 0-0 (all the 4 draws I mentioned were 0-0's), so your dnb won't do no harm


Yep, reminds me very much of HSV and somehow it would be deserved for Schalke to relegate just because of this. Just like it was for Hamburg, but it took some seasons until they finally got what they deserved. And with a gun to my had, I would pick Schalke not to relegate (Bielefeld and Union would be my picks, 16th placed team will win playoffs, because GER2 is weak this season).

I think what these teams (Schalke & Mainz) miss badly during these hard times, is their fans. When everything goes according to plan, it's nice to have the fans cheering - but when you are in a crisis, that is when you really need them; their support, their chants, their emotions, even their anger towards you as a player/team. These teams need some external input during the games, because it doesn't come from within at the moment. Fans can give you confidence and also take your confidence, but if the stadiums would be packed next round, I am sure we would see a different Schalke/Mainz with 100% fan support. Since this won't happen, they will have to find other ways to get back on track until then. One thing is for sure though: At least one of them will not lose next weekend


Deserved win for Augsburg, though there was some hope with the equalizer. Game was 10min too long in the end

Depends on what you are trying to do or achieve If you just want to have some fun and spice up watching/following the games, then it's fine to make such a parlay. But don't expect to make any money with this - it looks safe, but you will very likely lose this and similar bets and not make any profits longterm.

Parlays are very good, if all your selections have value, because you also multiply the value with it. But in NFL there is not a lot of value to be found and I doubt you can find 5 valuable picks in NFL in any week (at least in the main markets ML/HC). And this is no offense, no one can imo, it's just super hard. Single bets are always better, slow and steady wins the race in betting

And never bet on your favourite team, because you might be biased or just a fanboy Jk, I did this as well with the Giants, but you create a lose-lose situation, where you lose the bet and are sad on top, because your team loses. You also create a win-win situation, but the pain of losing is way harder than the joy of winning imo.

Anway, good luck with that parlay, if you placed it already