Here are the picks thus far for this week (rdbase where are yours ? You are normally not late^^):



Consensus found only for one game (Tottenham) There is a handful of other games, where there is a strong tendency, but a user here and there spoiled the fun. And people have picked the draw for Everton-ManU and Atalanta-Inter 50% of the time, which is a lot. Welcome @Indymoney

Thanks for the input/help @buwaytress with gs, I have uploaded my Excel file to gs and it just has some slight formatting errors, the formulas should be fine. I can't/won't make it editable for everyone/the public though, since there are always some weirdos, who like to destroy things. But if any of the regular posters in here wants to have editable access, just send me your email address via PM and I'll add you. You can find the table here, I will update it frequently, so you can follow (hope the link works, if not, just make a peep): Multimaster Week 45.

Sorry if this maybe makes your sheet obsolete @buwaytress.


Yep, thats what is my concern too

In GER2 I have placed a bet on Würzburg +0.75 @2.02 for today. Can't believe Heidenheim is priced 1.70-ish in the 1X2 market, because this is way too low. They are not that good anymore after losing a lot of quality during the summer. And they are not the team to score a lot of goals, so something like 1-0/2-1 will get us at least half of your stake back. Würzburgs results have been poor on paper, but they played some pretty good teams lately, namely the teams which are sitting in Top3 as we speak. They weren't doing too bad in these losses and this game in Heidenheim today looks like a good opportunity to turn things around a bit and get 1 point or more. This will be a super ugly game me thinks, which looks very draw-ish to me, maybe even 0-0.

For Friday night match between Bremen and Cologne in Bundesliga today, I was looking to place some bet on Cologne, but odds have no value for my liking. Maybe some opportunity will evolve inplay

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Where are all those Schalke haters ? They won a game It wasn't pretty and probably not deserved (Schweinfurt missed a penalty in 70th minute to make it 2-2), but a win is a win, 4-1 FT.

My picks for this week

Sassuolo - Udinese
Southampton - Newcastle United
Everton - Manchester United DRAW
Watford - Coventry City
Barcelona - Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München
Lazio - Juventus
West Bromwich Albion - Tottenham
Leicester City - Wolverhampton
Atalanta - Inter
Manchester City - Liverpool DRAW
Leverkusen - M'gladbach
Arsenal - Aston Villa
Valencia - Real Madrid
Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo

Hope the away teams will have a great weekend, lol.

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As for this discussion about the freebets, I am fine with basically everything, since I can't receive the freebet anyway, so count me in for all stunts you are trying to do. My suggestion would have been to give the first freebet to rdbase for personal use, since he started this wonderful thread, which is now our MM living room

I would be careful with our consensus picks and better not parlay them Going back to the last MM tables, we nearly always have at least one of them going wrong; only in week 41 we hit all of them, the UNL weekend. And just quick-checking these ~75% consensus picks, they are even doing worse^^

I think it should be something connected to the MM games with clear rules, because otherwise you will have endless discussions in here about the picks and finding consensus will be hard Can also do over parlay always for the first 5 games on the official MM schedule. This would be Sassuolo/Southampton/Everton/Watford/Barca this week. Or the middle 5 or last 5

@buwaytress

I can pimp your googlesheet table a bit to have a better overview of picks made, but will wait for the final decision. I have my table in "normal" Excel and c&p'ing it into googlesheet messes up all the formulas.

No, I just put the odds in. You can do a lot with the calculator I linked, there are easier ones and I normally use this, but it's with german language. If you scroll down a bit to "Einsatzverteilung", you have the same calculator, but a bit more easy to use.


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

You just put in your stake and the odds (green) and then get the optimal stakes for the two bets (blue) and your total odds (red).

If you tick the box for the draw.....


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

....you then have created your own AH0 with the 1X2 odds (but as said, most of the time not worth it). You can also make an AH with getting your money back for Torino win and getting paid out in case of a draw - just tick the box above then:


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

You can also choose more outcomes for outright bets or whatever, like for example you want to bet on either Leicester/ManU/Arsenal winning the EPL title, you can then get your optimal stake to win the same amount with each bet. Lots of things to play around with

It's not always the users fault or having bad intentions. Especially in the early days when VAR was introduced, the bookies just re-opened the markets no matter what after a goal was scored and everyone believed the score was correct - even the players, teams, officials. So the punters placed their bets, that got accepted and then suddenly the VAR came into play to check things.

Nowadays all involved parties have learned better how to deal with the VAR and you basically can't cheat the system no more, even if you wanted It's still a race for the bookies as to who is the fastest to re-open betting to get the biggest piece of the cake, but they wait way longer in comparison to when this was introduced and make sure the score is correct and VAR won't intervene no more.

But then again I wouldn't rule out the possibilty of bookies still taking advantage, because it's easy for them. Lets say they kind of know that a scored goal will get nullified. But they still re-open the markets to get action. They can just void the bets they don't like (with the reasoning, hey you tried to cheat us) and let the other bets stand. And if it turns out, that the standing bets surprisingly win in the end, they can just void them after the final whistle too

The formulas are:

Odds away win*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)
Odds draw*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)

So your stake for draw: 2.55*100/(2.55+3.35) = 43.22
For away win: 3.35*100/(2.55+3.35) = 56.78

I used an online calculator though, which you can find just via googling, for example this one. Just put in the odds and you will see.


This said bookie was/is Interwetten. B-a-h is austrian bookie also, they have big betting industry in Austria. Intertops, Wetten-Schwechat, bwin is austrian as well imo and gazillions more, though some of them have disappeared in the last years

Brighton v Burnley - 1
Southampton v Newcastle - 1
Everton v Man Utd - 1
Crystal Palace v Leeds - 1
Chelsea v Sheffield Utd - 1
West Ham v Fulham - 1
West Brom v Spurs - 2
Leicester City v Wolves - 1
Man City v Liverpool - 1
Arsenal v Aston Villa - 1

Betnomi user name: tyKiwanuka

Thanks Betnomi & Trofo, very nice promo.

Well, sometimes the VAR only comes in late when the bookies have already re-opened the betting (with the then incorrect result).

In general all bets are voided then, but as always some bookies might take advantage of the situation and void the bets which are unfavourable for them and let the others stand. I have seen it all

The reason for these different odds is the number of possible outcomes. If you just have two possible outcomes, it's way easier to balance your book and thus you can have lower vig and better odds consequently. And accept bigger stakes also

That second screenshot with Genoa/Torino match has only two possible outcomes for both bets, but here I think, that the calculation is just done differently. For the AH0 bet, they just use their normal AH compiling, while for the DNB they take the 1X2 odds and go on from there, but not sure.

If you are really ambitious, you shouldn't take any DC "straight" bets on offer though, but make your own ones Take the Genoa vs Torino match again and you have these double chance odds (all screenhots taken from Sportsbet)



Here are the 1X2 odds:



Now I put my stake as the following (lets assume, I want to bet 100 units):

56.78 units on away win @2.55
43.22 units on the draw @3.35

Et voilá I have odds of @1.4479 and not @1.43 as SB offers me for using their pre-build double chance. There are tools to calculate your stakes or you just make your own in Excel in 1 minute. With 10sec of extra work, you will then win additional 1.4479 units, if you win your bet

For AH bets this usually doesn't work out, because you are using the 1X2 odds to build it and have this bigger vig there already. If I construct my own AH0 bet on Genoa for example with the 1X2 bets, I only get @1.9642, while SB offers me 2.02 for this bet in their AH markets already.

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There is/was an austrian bookmaker, who actually refunded only 90% of AH0 bets, if the game ended in a draw. Complete rip-off, but not sure, if they are still doing it.

Because Betfair is geo-restricted in gazillions of countries; the exchange that is. So only option for these people, like me, is to go via an agent and use Orbit. You have the same liquidity, odds and everything else. It's just missing an API to use trading software, which is a big disadvantage and you have to adapt to it. And then Orbit - and other WLE's in the past - have their own way of making some extra bucks, which is a bit risky and explained here.

Well, this is very lol f forgot to submit my picks for ESP like 3 rounds ago - or I did them, but something went wrong, maybe it was me - and was super annoyed with it. So I just made my picks for ITA, ESP and ENG for multiple rounds in advance and thus these picks for ITA were also made ages ago. Just checked the results and wow, what a round +8 places with one round, basically from bottom to top, Schalke's wet dream.

I admit not having too much clue about Serie A, so don't worry, I won't top the table in May. What I am capable of, you can see in ESP pool, where I am dead last and rightfully so. For La Liga I have even less clue, but I find this league super meh anyway. Sorry if this offends anyone But I still enjoy all kinds of pools, it's fun, even when you don't know what you are doing^^

Ist ja eine heisse Diskussion hier


Hehe, eventuell reden wir aneinander vorbei, but not sure. Also machen wir mal so:

Du hast 1000,- Euro gestern in BTC investiert, heute sind daraus 1600,- geworden. Nun möchtest du so viel Geld wie möglich wieder rausziehen (aus welchem Grund auch immer) ohne Steuern zahlen zu müssen. Wieviel kannst du dir auszahlen lassen, d.h zurück in Euro tauschen ? 600 oder 1600 ? Ich sage 1600.

Du kannst dir halt technisch nicht einfach nur Gewinn auszahlen lassen, denn in jedem BTC, den du verkaufst, steckt im Optimalfall immer Invest+Gewinn drin.

Wie ich Kollege papajaman verstanden hab, möchte er so viel Geld wie möglich rausnehmen, aber unter der Freigrenze bleiben und dann kann man natürlich mehr als 600,- Euro rausnehmen. Kann natürlich sein, dass ich ein Brett vorm Kopf habe, aber wenn wir das Beispiel mal komplett vereinfachen:

BTC Preis bei Kauf: 10.000 Euro
BTC Preis bei Verkauf (unterjährig): 16.000 Euro

1.000,- Euro investiert, Wert danach bei 1.600,- Euro. Jetzt kann ich wieder komplett alles verkaufen, kriege die 1.600,- Euro zurück und muss keine Steuern zahlen.

Wenn ich nur 600,- Euro auszahle, dann sind darin ja nur 225,- Euro Gewinn enthalten.

Placed a bet for Schalke AH-2 @1.8x in cup game for tomorrow against Schweinfurt. Can already see everyone screaming, but I don't care Schweinfurt just plays in Div4, if they actually get to play a game - their last two games were postponed, one probably due to Corona and the other because their opponents had a car accident while travelling to Schweinfurt. So Schweinfurt had only one competitive game in 6 weeks and they lost that one 0-2. Now one could say they are fresh, but don't think they will be sharp with just practicing

Game will be a home game for Schalke and take place in an empty Veltins Arena. Schalke has a Corona case, but seriously it doesn't matter who it is, they have to beat Schweinfurt here rather easily with at least 2 goals, which would be a push then. In this test match against Paderborn during international break, they did very well winning 5-1, maybe they are just paralyzed when it's Bundesliga^^ And in Bundesliga they did actually improve a tiny bit, say what you want. I'll take any Bundesliga team against a Div4 team in a home game with AH-2 for these odds. Let's go Schalke

Busy times for the refs this week and a lot of players will have some rest next weekend.

England

Wolverhampton - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Crystal Palace in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Too late to have any impact.

Spain

Loads of red cards in Spain this round

Alaves - Barca
Red Card: Alaves in 62nd minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Equalizer for Barca came instantly after the red card. Would have been interesting to see the odds after 1-1 and then maybe laying Barca next goal. Did anyone watch the markets and saw the odds ?

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Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 93rd minute, score 1-4
Final Score: 1-4

Late red card, no impact and game was decided already.

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Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.

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Valencia - Getafe
Red Card(s): Valencia in 56th minute, score 1-0 and Getafe in 98th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Now this is an interesting one Getafe took advantage and scored two to turn the game around, though only in 87th and 94th minute. They then got a red card themselves and Valencia scored the 2-2 via penalty in 100th minute, lol. Not sure if this penalty was caused by the red card, but such games are a traders dream. Though not very interesting for this "study", since this game was so unique and you won't find anything like that again in the next 500 games.

Italy

Roma - Fiorentina
Red Card: Fiorentina in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Nothing to report here.

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Verona - Benevento
Red Card: Benevento in 73rd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 3-1

This is a scenario we had quite often already. The favourite and/or home team takes advantage of the strength in numbers and scores another goal, while the red-carded team pushes being one goal down.

Germany

Hoffenheim - Union Berlin
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 58th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-3

The only green one for this weekend. The red card resulted in a penalty for Union and laying them to score the next goal would have resulted in a profit (as would have laying them to win and then hedge), since Hoffenheim scored the equalizer in 80th minute. Union went on to win the game with two late goals, but we would have been out of the markets by then already

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Another bad week for our red-carded teams. I more and more think, that it's really not worth to do any bets in favour of the red-carded teams. But otoh I also think it's not worth to back the other team, since the odds are often poor-ish. Maybe the markets in these games are already kind of perfect and there is no value to be found

Already told you in PM @Avirunes, but here again officially: Congratulations for the win As buwaytress said, sharing with only 1 person is good, when you "only" have 10 correct ones. So enjoy the money or re-invest in some good bets.


9/15, not too bad Real Sociedad and Bilbao were a lock for me, but SB had other plans^^ Well, Watford was kind of obvious, but I missed it.

Arsenal - Aston Villa
Atalanta - Inter Milan
Atletico MG - Flamengo RJ
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München
Chelsea - Sheffield United
Everton - Manchester United
FC Barcelona - Real Betis
Lazio Roma - Juventus Turin
Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach
Manchester City - Liverpool
Nice - Monaco
Paris Saint Germain - Rennes
RB Leipzig - SC Freiburg
Real Sociedad - Granada CF
Valladolid - Athletic Bilbao

Lots of tight-ish games this week, only Barca is below 1.50.

I thought all the time that you were one of those two with 9 correct ones and was happy to see Flamengo lose, because would have meant you are very likely to win. But what @morvillz7z said above is really true and annoying. Can´t be that hard to update everything near real-time or make a little extra field, where it says how many games are included thus far. Or SB needs to make it mandatory for all participants to post their picks in this thread; I can update real-time^^ Anyway, I hope you are among the winners Avirunes

Here are the results from our thread:



Very good result from buwaytress and notblox1 too, well done, but the 100 fame points go to Master Avirunes this week

And all-time stats:



Avirunes gets his third win and catches up with ralle14 in that category. Trofo still with the best average, if we disregard notblox1 due to tiny sample size

Yes, it was Miamis defense that won the game. Tua and his offense were really pathetic, middle Q4 they had like 154 total yards. Surely a bit lucky to have won this bet, but defense is part of the game as well and I have lost bets that way multiple times too

Some surprising results odds-wise in early games (Bengals and Vikings) and BAL-PIT was really nice to watch. Some bad luck for the Ravens with the injuries to their O-Line - without those they would have won imo. But as above, injuries are also part of the game

Now lets see what SF can do.....

I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

I only got to watch very few unfortunately and had basically no bets, because there are so many other different things going on and watching/following Cycling is really time-consuming. The Vuelta has strangely always been my favourite GT, because it used to take place when there was also the Tennis US Open running and NFL started as well around that time always. Were always super busy, but very exciting weeks, where I would watch the Vuelta 3-4 hours, then switch over to Tennis and later that day night add some NFL, amazing

Looking at the GC, it's the skijumper's to lose with the TT coming up on Tuesday and the rest of the week not being super demanding at least profile-wise. Only obstacle will be the Alto de la Covatilla (11.7k @6.9%), where you won't lose a lot of time normally. But there is the Angliru today as you mentioned, which is one hell of a climb.