🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[ChiBitCTy]

^If i had to take the spread i would probably also back the Bears to cover tonight. Rams have a 4-2 record with all wins coming against NFC East teams, so not that impressive.

I think it's going to be a low scoring affair, liking the Under 44.5 a lot here, Bears are avg 18pts (last 3) vs. Rams 21pts (last 3).

To be honest, I don't blame you. I was gonna pick Rams moneyline but transaction fees are a bit high right now and I didn't feel like spending $5 just to potentially lose $20, LOL. So I didn't get my bet in and now of course the Rams are crushing it. The under is still looking good at this point. Pre-game the feeling was that a win for the under would signify a cover for the Bears, but now it looks like the second part might not be true.

Happy for my Rams and its good just watch a game for the sake of the game instead of making money.

Yeah rams are taking it to them.  It was hard to pinpoint how good they were yet since they've been feasting on the nfc east which every division is making a mockery of.  Nice strong win for them here at this point in the year, soldier them as a contender in the west.  That is going to be a real hard division to come out of this year, honestly any of those teams will be tough to beat.

Yeah my Chicago Bears suck.  Fact of life I have done a good job getting used to. We will probably limp in to the playoffs but I hope they fire our General Manager.  Guy has been a joke. I hear you the NFC West is petty solid, however I think the Seahawks are the clear cut best team in that division.  That being said as volatile as the NFL has been from game to game this year, I could see any of those teams making a run.

[vella85]

The Bears looked terrible last night and even when all the stats are in favour for them to cover the spread they don't even though when they have been losing its been under the spread that was on offer last night. It was good to see the Rams get a solid win.

[wheelz1200]

^If i had to take the spread i would probably also back the Bears to cover tonight. Rams have a 4-2 record with all wins coming against NFC East teams, so not that impressive.

I think it's going to be a low scoring affair, liking the Under 44.5 a lot here, Bears are avg 18pts (last 3) vs. Rams 21pts (last 3).

To be honest, I don't blame you. I was gonna pick Rams moneyline but transaction fees are a bit high right now and I didn't feel like spending $5 just to potentially lose $20, LOL. So I didn't get my bet in and now of course the Rams are crushing it. The under is still looking good at this point. Pre-game the feeling was that a win for the under would signify a cover for the Bears, but now it looks like the second part might not be true.

Happy for my Rams and its good just watch a game for the sake of the game instead of making money.

Yeah rams are taking it to them.  It was hard to pinpoint how good they were yet since they've been feasting on the nfc east which every division is making a mockery of.  Nice strong win for them here at this point in the year, soldier them as a contender in the west.  That is going to be a real hard division to come out of this year, honestly any of those teams will be tough to beat.

Yeah my Chicago Bears suck.  Fact of life I have done a good job getting used to. We will probably limp in to the playoffs but I hope they fire our General Manager.  Guy has been a joke. I hear you the NFC West is petty solid, however I think the Seahawks are the clear cut best team in that division.  That being said as volatile as the NFL has been from game to game this year, I could see any of those teams making a run.

I still lile the rams out of the west but will have to see them beat a couple of more teams otjer than the nfc east.  I think taking away the crowd or settles 12th man will have a big effect down the line.  Seattle always held such a huge home field advantage.  And then there is Arizona who I can see sneaking in too..hell all 4 teams should make it 

In other news how the hell are the bucs on 10.5 point favorites over the giants.  Some line i feel like they know something we dont

[xxjumperxx]

FALCONS VS. PANTHERS Betting Preview



Odds:
Spread: Carolina -2.5
Money-Line: Carolina -135 (opened at 140), Atlanta +115 (opened at +130)
Total: 51.5 (opened at 50.5)


ATLANTA
Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Ranked 13)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Ranked 6)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Ranked 26)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Ranked 31)

CAROLINA
Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Ranked 25)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Ranked 15)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Ranked 13)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Ranked 13)


KEY INJURIES

ATLANTA
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable
DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable


CAROLINA
RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable

Whats everyone take on this Game?

Im probably going to stay away from picking a side/spread and will just bit my money on the over and hope for an exciting game.
There is a hurricane warning so I will see how that develops before placing any bets.

[wheelz1200]

As an Eagles fan I'm happy they got the win but watching the game was terrible and I'm glad that I didn't place a bet on them even though they won. I think most here had a win with most taking the Giants to cover which they did. I do agree that the NFC East table looks very bad right now but it can all change as there is time for at least one or two teams to get .500 hopefully lol.

I predict the Cowboys to win the division with or without Dak Prescott. The other teams are worse in many ways hehe. The Cowboys at the very least have their offense.

Lol they scored 3 points against the redskins, dont think thats going to cut it.  Their defense is atrocious, i can see the Eagles taking the division at this point.  It will probably go back and forth all year with this division but the cowboys are as worse as I've seen them in a long long time.

[South Park]

As an Eagles fan I'm happy they got the win but watching the game was terrible and I'm glad that I didn't place a bet on them even though they won. I think most here had a win with most taking the Giants to cover which they did. I do agree that the NFC East table looks very bad right now but it can all change as there is time for at least one or two teams to get .500 hopefully lol.

I predict the Cowboys to win the division with or without Dak Prescott. The other teams are worse in many ways hehe. The Cowboys at the very least have their offense.

Lol they scored 3 points against the redskins, dont think thats going to cut it.  Their defense is atrocious, i can see the Eagles taking the division at this point.  It will probably go back and forth all year with this division but the cowboys are as worse as I've seen them in a long long time.

In all honesty I thought DAL will still have chances of winning that division with Dalton at QB but after he was be figuratively murdered on the field I can say that team has lost any chance to win it. PHI seems like the obvious choice to win the division but the injuries could be what stops them from getting the divisional title and if that is the case the only other football team that may have any chances is... Football Team?

Personally I do not believe any of the teams on the NFC East will even reach 0.500 which is a shame because it means a good team with a 11-5 or 10-6 record could be left out of the playoffs which is completely unfair.

[tyKiwanuka]

NFC East is getting quite some attention

Here are the "live-odds" from betonline:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-futures

I think we should look at the schedules as well, when trying to figure out which of these crap teams will host a playoff game. Cowboys/Eagles still have 4 divisional games, which is supposed to be the easiest way to get a W. Eagles have a super tough schedule outside of the divisional games; Seattle, GB, Saints super hard, @Browns and @Cardinals not easy too. Washington has the easiest schedule, where they could get extra non-divisional W's against Lions/Bengals/Panthers. Cowboys only have Vikings/Bengals as potential W's, if everything goes according to plan, but they are both away games.

Washington @4.5 is probably a bit too high, but I just can't

Whats everyone take on this Game?

I like the under here, since Falcons Defense was a bit better in recent games and everyone is expecting some shootout, but I don't see it. You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a game between these two in Bank of America Stadium which had 51+ points. Actually in the last 25 games @Carolina, the total stayed 23 times under todays line Looks different @Atlanta, but somehow these teams always have low-scoring affairs in North Carolina. But I don't like to bet unders, maybe someone else finds this information useful though

[wheelz1200]

As an Eagles fan I'm happy they got the win but watching the game was terrible and I'm glad that I didn't place a bet on them even though they won. I think most here had a win with most taking the Giants to cover which they did. I do agree that the NFC East table looks very bad right now but it can all change as there is time for at least one or two teams to get .500 hopefully lol.

I predict the Cowboys to win the division with or without Dak Prescott. The other teams are worse in many ways hehe. The Cowboys at the very least have their offense.

Lol they scored 3 points against the redskins, dont think thats going to cut it.  Their defense is atrocious, i can see the Eagles taking the division at this point.  It will probably go back and forth all year with this division but the cowboys are as worse as I've seen them in a long long time.

In all honesty I thought DAL will still have chances of winning that division with Dalton at QB but after he was be figuratively murdered on the field I can say that team has lost any chance to win it. PHI seems like the obvious choice to win the division but the injuries could be what stops them from getting the divisional title and if that is the case the only other football team that may have any chances is... Football Team?

Personally I do not believe any of the teams on the NFC East will even reach 0.500 which is a shame because it means a good team with a 11-5 or 10-6 record could be left out of the playoffs which is completely unfair.

It happens a lot where a team thats 8-8 or 9-7  wins but those are the breaks.  Even worse the nfc east winner will be hosting a home game against a team that is potentially 12-4 or even 13-3.  Obviously none of the 4 yeams are going to do squat in the playoffs so its just a speed-up for the best wild card team.

[morvillz7z]

Whats everyone take on this Game?

Im probably going to stay away from picking a side/spread and will just bit my money on the over and hope for an exciting game.
There is a hurricane warning so I will see how that develops before placing any bets.

I can't pick a side in this one either, though i slightly favor Atlanta to cover and win, as for the O/U, tough one as well, but maybe Under as these two played just a couple of weeks ago 23-16 Carolina.

McCaffrey was rumored that he might play, but he is out, Julio Jones will play for the Falcons.

Here's what i got:

○ T.Bridgewater 230+ pass yards + T.Gurley II 55+ rush yards total odds 1.96
Bridgewater finished with 313 yards against the Falcons, in that very same game Gurley had 121 rush yards himself.
Falcons are second to last in opponent passing yards per game @ 322.7 (last 3 games)

○ D.J.Moore 55+ receiving yards + C.Ridley 55+ receiving yards total odds 2.00
D.J.Moore has 93 receiving yards in each of the last three games, against that poor pass defense he should have himself a night.
C.Ridley is in one of my fantasy teams, need him to put some decent numbers for me. He has had more than 55 rec yards in each of the last 3 games, 136 yards against the Panthers three weeks ago.

○ D.J.Moore Anytime TD score + T.Gurley II 5+ receiving yards total odds 3.00
Risky one but i'm high on D.J.Moore, excellent matchup for him, as for Gurley, Falcons are giving him between 3 and 5 targets (last 3 games), 5 yards are nothing.

edit;

-Gurley sidelined for no apparent reason
-Ridley tweaked his ankle and likely out @42 yards
-Moore 1tgts 0 yards

the absolute state of give me a fucking break, these prop bets can be sooo frustrating at times.

[ralle14]

Whats everyone take on this Game?

I got the Panthers to win I can't trust the Falcons to take this one after choking too many times.

If i'm going for the totals i'd take the under since the previous meeting ended 36 and even though both can score a lot of points 50 is too much imo.

Edit : So many chances for the falcons to be up by a touchdown but they always fall short when its first and goal.

-Gurley sidelined for no apparent reason
-Ridley tweaked his ankle and likely out @42 yards
-Moore 1tgts 0 yards

the absolute state of give me a fucking break, these prop bets can be sooo frustrating at times.

That is some next level unlucky.

Well played by the Falcons with that interception at the final possession. The Panthers played sloppy and buried themselves with some penalties.

[bbc.reporter]

As an Eagles fan I'm happy they got the win but watching the game was terrible and I'm glad that I didn't place a bet on them even though they won. I think most here had a win with most taking the Giants to cover which they did. I do agree that the NFC East table looks very bad right now but it can all change as there is time for at least one or two teams to get .500 hopefully lol.

I predict the Cowboys to win the division with or without Dak Prescott. The other teams are worse in many ways hehe. The Cowboys at the very least have their offense.

Lol they scored 3 points against the redskins, dont think thats going to cut it.  Their defense is atrocious, i can see the Eagles taking the division at this point.  It will probably go back and forth all year with this division but the cowboys are as worse as I've seen them in a long long time.

I did not know Dalton would be very much worse than what the sports media is writing about him hehe.

Also, for this game I thought I liked the Panthers on anything less than -3. I might bet a safe parlay on Greenbay and Tennessee to get loss back if Panthers lose hehehe.

[DireWolfM14]

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Green Bay Packers hosts Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks hosts San Francisco 49ers
Handicap: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)

Baltimore Ravens hosts Pittsburgh Steelers
Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals hosts Tennessee Titans
Winner: Tennessee Titans

Chicago Bears hosts New Orleans Saints
Winner: New Orleans Saints

What do you guys think?  Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?  

[tyKiwanuka]

What do you guys think?  Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?  

Depends on what you are trying to do or achieve If you just want to have some fun and spice up watching/following the games, then it's fine to make such a parlay. But don't expect to make any money with this - it looks safe, but you will very likely lose this and similar bets and not make any profits longterm.

Parlays are very good, if all your selections have value, because you also multiply the value with it. But in NFL there is not a lot of value to be found and I doubt you can find 5 valuable picks in NFL in any week (at least in the main markets ML/HC). And this is no offense, no one can imo, it's just super hard. Single bets are always better, slow and steady wins the race in betting

And never bet on your favourite team, because you might be biased or just a fanboy Jk, I did this as well with the Giants, but you create a lose-lose situation, where you lose the bet and are sad on top, because your team loses. You also create a win-win situation, but the pain of losing is way harder than the joy of winning imo.

Anway, good luck with that parlay, if you placed it already

[vella85]

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Green Bay Packers hosts Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks hosts San Francisco 49ers
Handicap: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)

Baltimore Ravens hosts Pittsburgh Steelers
Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals hosts Tennessee Titans
Winner: Tennessee Titans

Chicago Bears hosts New Orleans Saints
Winner: New Orleans Saints

What do you guys think?  Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?  

I think its ok if you are just playing for fun and trying to add some value. I sometimes like to take big parlays with 7+ games but this year I haven't and just stuck with 3 game parlays and just try and find some value by adding at least one underdog team which has been working great so far. Parlays are always a big risk but the rewards can be high and I think they are fun to play. Good luck!

[tyKiwanuka]

I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

[DireWolfM14]

it looks safe, but you will very likely lose this and similar bets and not make any profits longterm.

Yeah, that's what I figured.  From a statistical standpoint, the odds of getting all right are compounded by factors of the odds of getting each one right.  it's definitely more risky than picking each of those results individually.

I think its ok if you are just playing for fun and trying to add some value.

And that's it really, I just want to have a little fun, and see if I can turn 1mBTC into ~9. 

And never bet on your favourite team, because you might be biased or just a fanboy Jk,

Hey now, I resemble that remark!  Okay, maybe I'll remove the 9ers from my pick.  With my luck I'll get all those picks except the 9ers will let me down.

I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

Good picks.  I kind of like Miami for the win today also, but it's largely going to depend on "which" LA Rams show up.  They've been hit and miss all year, and their record isn't showing how much trouble they've actually had.  Miami with a handicap, might be a safe bet.

[morvillz7z]

^I'm not high on Miami and Tua in this one for some reason, Rams (last 3) are ranked #2 in opponent rush yards per game and #5 in opp. pass yards per game, they also dominated a very good Bears defense in week 7. Tua got a few snaps vs. the Jets but against Aaron Donald it will be tough with or without tape on him, +3.5 spread looks better but i will still not take it, Dolphins are a hard pass for me this week.

What i have is Chargers ml parlayed with Packers ml, singles on Chiefs -20.5, looks crazy but Jets could be down 3 tds in the first quarter, i could see something like 43-7. A.J. Geen O4.5 receptions (avg 12 tgts in the last two games) and Aiyuk O58.5 receiving yards (Seahawks are dead last in opp. pass yards per game @368.7 on the year.

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Good luck with that 5 acca, i allowed myself to tail you here, i like all 5 picks!

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think.

I also can't wait for those two matchups, will Steelers finally lose one?

[ralle14]

What do you guys think?

I like most of them except for the 49ers that match feels like a 50-50 to me even with the spread. Hope you win it though.

My multi for today is very similar to what you have, I got the Packers(-5.5) and Steelers(+3.5) both on the spread. I still can't forget that near loss from the Ravens Eagles game so I went with the Steelers spread.

For my week 9 survival picks I took the Eagles and the Bucs. The Eagles aren't the best but I doubt the Cowboys could keep it close now that two of their QBs are out.

[morvillz7z]

Dolphins got 79 yds rec TD and 88 punt return TD in the span of two minutes in the second quarter, holy smokes!  

Goff just threw another interception while i was typing, i did not see that coming, what a shitshow for LAR so far.

[tyKiwanuka]

Dolphins got 79 yds rec TD and 88 punt return TD in the span of two minutes in the second quarter, holy smokes!  

Goff just threw another interception while i was typing, i did not see that coming, what a shitshow for LAR so far.

Yes, it was Miamis defense that won the game. Tua and his offense were really pathetic, middle Q4 they had like 154 total yards. Surely a bit lucky to have won this bet, but defense is part of the game as well and I have lost bets that way multiple times too

Some surprising results odds-wise in early games (Bengals and Vikings) and BAL-PIT was really nice to watch. Some bad luck for the Ravens with the injuries to their O-Line - without those they would have won imo. But as above, injuries are also part of the game

Now lets see what SF can do.....