Send all thy won bitcoins to my address and thou shall be spared. 

It is 50%.

The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to flip 21 heads as it is to flip 20 heads and then 1 tail when flipping a fair coin 21 times.


The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1⁄32 (one in thirty-two), a person subject to the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip was less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy; the event of 5 heads in a row and the event of "first 4 heads, then a tails" are equally likely, each having probability 1⁄32. Given that the first four rolls turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is in fact,

While a run of five heads is only 1⁄32 = 0.03125, it is only that before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so their probabilities are 1. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses, that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds in the future, is the fallacy.

lol, yeah I thought so. Still it wasn't clear from the original OP.
What is the challenge prize?

Edit: got it. Knowledge of a system that works.

God will not punish them because you made a bet on the site, knowing that you might win or you might lose. plus it is provably fair. The responsibility of choosing what you want to do is yours. Even it was a scam, it will be an act of negligence on your part. If you are serious with the money, you are supposed to check where you are putting it into.

It is Vishnu, btw.

Closed for 12 hours till I get back later and adjust odds etc.

Confirmed.
Thank you

How did you make every word start with a capital? simply Shift?

You are free to do anything you like. My offer stands.

wow, I never knew people will even google it.

lol, do you think any reputed website will launch something like this?

He is a secret agent of Stunna inc with an undisclosed objective of pushing up the profits of dice sites. 

Yeah, but if you are planning to implement it, you have to consider that bitcoin price is highly volatile. So don't get into losses. Other than that, there is not much of a problem.
This type of options is called barrier options as you probably already know.

I suppose you meant <=0.3BTC ?
I can easily get a 0.5BTC loan, but the problem is I need a low interest rate. 

Thank you for your interest. I will contact you when I need a loan.

New to martingale? or just sarcastic?

lol, I think sarcastic..

Update: price is moving up. Currently at $237.

When it hits $240, the payout and crossing price will change. All bets made before will be locked in to the rate atm.

I am sorry, it is very difficult for me to do so, as I mentioned earlier.

The max bet is 3BTC, btw. I will not accept more than that.


Also, the address has been changed to https://blockchain.info/address/1P7AFhpycso993KaJVB4puCP7getNKGi2f
It is an address generated solely for this.
since you guys are assuming I am paying out of that address just because I had used it a few days ago.
No funds were send to the previous address.

The game is provably fair.

Head to http://bitcoinity.org/ -> Click on markets -> Bitstamp

You can easily know once you won. Moreover, there is a this : change: +0.56%      high: 0.268      low: 0.228

lol, my balance is not zero.
It will be difficult for me to convert all my holdings to btc and withdraw to a wallet and sign it. But, you can trust my reputation on that.

I give 100% guarantee that your funds will be safe, even if my wallet get hacked or bitfinex etc. goes down. but the latter would mean price dropping further and you losing, lol. I will have enough funds to cover any loss.

The offer will be limited and as the price rises to say $240+, i will be changing the payout etc. If you want the current bet, place it now before the odds change. A substantial market move will change the odds.

You can also, trust on my reputation. I am the original owner of the account and will never intend to sell or indulge in unethical activities/malpractices. If you did not get the payment, you will be free to call up the mods and leave me a negative trust feedback.

I once again, assure you, there is no question of me losing your funds. The only question is whether you will win the bet or lose it.

It has already hit 265+ a few hours ago. Please do something yourself before posting.  
Check high:


And remember you got 150 hours, not just 24 to win.

I hit myself in the head with the other end of a 1 meter thick magnetic iron rod.
Needless to say, it always works. 


 

Dang! I knew I shouldn't have got my wings