From now on, only the following coins may be mentioned in the thread:
BTC
XMR
NXT
FLT
BBR
NEM
XCurrency
Maidsafe
Skycoin
Siacoin
Discussion of the other coins belongs to other threads.
No etherium? It was voted a few pages ago. Just to remind that shitcoins should not be advertised. Only intention is to safeguard the quality discussion on the thread. |
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Either the Monero developers don't intend to provide anonymity against the NSA
As I understood by having (proxy) discussions with them, this is the case. By not intending to provide such anonymity, they aim to hit the sweet spot of being the "corporate coin", because corporations are hesitant to enter into Bitcoin due to all their transactions being open for competitors. There will still be market for NSA-proof coins, when/if such can be developed. |
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Even if that happens, i feel myself very tiny, just have 1 BTC
There will never be more than 0.5 million individuals with 1 BTC. You are in about as exclusive company as one who owns $15 million dollars these days...   |
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Please take the discussion elsewhere if it does not concern the following coins. Thank you  From now on, only the following coins may be mentioned in the thread:
BTC
XMR
NXT
FLT
BBR
NEM
XCurrency
Maidsafe
Skycoin
Siacoin
Discussion of the other coins belongs to other threads.
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I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty
This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking. No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them. Sure but miners who have no interest in the coin and this sell immediately increase available supply and contribute to the overall sell pressure. The demand is fixed in this case. But the miners are incentivized to increase the supply(available supply for sale and not held). When I was learning economics, I learned that the miner has 2 different roles: businessman and saver. If he chooses to make business and save in the same coin, fine. But if not, all it takes is somebody else willing to save in that coin. Whether the saver is a miner or not makes no difference. (A typical small business owner has 3 different roles btw: manager, owner and investor. First he must check that his capital invested is getting the market return. Then he has to calculate his market salary for managing the business. If there is anything left, that is his profit(loss) as the owner. This applies to the mining operation as well.) |
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I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty
This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking. No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them. |
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Reacting to recent comments and in order to support the monero devs and community, we have decided to donate 20% from our pools fee to the core-dev team. At http://pool.cryptoescrow.eu July 12th: We started donating 20% to Core-dev team. Now 40% of pool fee goes to donations:
20% to core-dev team;
20% to pool development;
60% to support the pool;
Total Fee - 1%
Join our pool and start supporting Monero development!This announcement is not intended to attach an elitist image to XMR or its devs, but to ensure the community that the devs are well connected and marketing in working as planned... ...because some people have doubted it. |
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Work is progressing quite rapidly on a funding system where everyone will be able to fund specific features / tasks. The main reason for donations at present is to enable us and some of the other devs to allocate much larger blocks of time to Monero on an ongoing basis until that system is ready to go:)
Just PM me when it is ready  |
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I would feel better about 7000 in Sept if we were at 1000 now. It seems such a stretch.
622->7000 in 60 days is less and slower than last oct-nov. |
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Anyone like buying BBR every time it drops below 25% of the price of XMR?
And with their dev it's not impossible that BBR could make some progress and exceed the 25% target over time and catch up somewhat to XMR. It would take something wild happening for BBR to reach parity with XMR but 33% is not out of the question, is it?
It's a winner-takes-it-all situation, for which reason BBR is trading at a significant discount. Market sees its chances to overtake XMR as slim. |
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regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004
I think we will. Equilibrium is not reached, it took a new wave down. I also thought that 0.0035 would be a slightly more probable low point than 0.003 and that is again more probable than 0.0025 etc. It is hard to see that the previous low of about 0.002 would be breached without news. |
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From now on, only the following coins may be mentioned in the thread:
BTC
XMR
NXT
FLT
BBR
NEM
XCurrency
Maidsafe
Skycoin
Siacoin
Discussion of the other coins belongs to other threads.
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The adjusting of the trendline to the recent sluggish performance has taken its toll from the top projections. The absolute top value of +0.45 only reaches $7000 in 2014-9-13 instead of August projected earlier.
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rpietila shitcoin observer.
Let's make a poll:
First 10 people to answer get the chance to nominate 2 coins each, to be the discussion topic of the thread. Any other coins are banned, until I say so. |
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Thank you for your answer Rp, It's a pleasure to read in depth explanation.
So the maximum downside longest-lasted 3 weeks.
Actually the longest duration ever for being down on your investment, provided that it was bought at -0.4 or lower, is 61 days (starting from the same day as above, calculated so that from 62nd day on, price has never been below the original purchase price). Would you buy if you are guaranteed to have positive return for every holding period in excess of 2 months? |
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Mr. Reed is not updating his trendline, which has become a problem after a few months below the trend. Actually it should be now at about -0.4 instead of -0.5. The difference is 30%, which is not insignificant My latest one shows that there is no way to predict the start of the uptrend based on the relative price in the trendline only.There IS a way to rather accurately predict the end of the uptrend, especially coupled with other indicators such as the doubling-time introduced by Mr. Reed. There IS also a way to tell that -0.4 (or of course -0.5 if we ever hit it) is a very-low risk entry point, with a low chance of even moderate decline of the investment's value historically evidenced. We'll just have to live within what is possible to predict, and with what probability. What I would not do at this point is to strategically sell bitcoins (even a fraction of your holdings), based on "it's going nowhere". If you don't need the money, just keep the coins. Their price is not going down! I know it is hard to get anyone to buy them at this exact low-point of risk, which is the high-point of reward. But that is just the way of markets. The technology is silently getting better and more approachable, wall st is joining, etc etc., we'll just have to wait. In my opinion, based on rather successful investing since 1996 (bitcoins 2011), we don't need to wait too long for the next runup in price. |
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Everyone is on vacation while we reached -0.5 Log from the S.reeds trendline
It's already 30 weeks after last ATH (last one ,,consolidation period'' took 27 weeks)
If market would repeat itself identically we would need one more high volume sell-of to trigger run-up, if I made right assumptions?
Shameless repost of my new research, originally in the Trendline thread: I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one: - flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens - for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used - for 2013, three exchanges - for 2014, Bitstamp only - daily VWAP - first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin The exponential trendline for this time: USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days R^2 = 0.934183 The trendline is at $1583. At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend. For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573. Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341. The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31. This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline. I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark: TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms. Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future. |
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I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin
The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days
R^2 = 0.934183
The trendline is at $1583.
At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.
For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.
The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.
This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.
I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:
TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.
Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.
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By this logic a "neutral" allocation would be 99.9% in fiat (denominated assets). By choosing bitcoin at much more than 0.1% of your assets you are already actively managing. A lot.
Correct. So if an individual doesn't have at least 0.1% of their investment portfolio in crypto, then they are underweight. Which means most people are underweight. And this is why I think the Winklevoss ETF will have a large impact. Why not risk at least 0.1% if the pay off is potentially 100X +? In round numbers: Crypto = 10, 000,000,000 USD World Total assets 1,000,000, 000,000,000 USD. Crypto = 1/100,000 = 0.001% of all assets. So actually for a median person with $100k in total assets, the neutral allocation would be to buy BTC0.002 for $1. It is very difficult to convince anyone to do so, they typically insist on going way overweight with the overweight leverage coefficient of 1,000 to 10,000. And then have agony over minuscule price movements that only matter to them because they first decided to go 10000 times more long than is necessary  TL;DR: If you are reading this and don't have bitcoins, BUY THEM. No matter how little. And don't sell until they are more than 50% of your total assets. |
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