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Never will there be 1 million people living at the same time, who each hold BTC1 or more. This is the law of the distribution of wealth.
Invest accordingly.
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This is the case on #monero. We may consider a web-to-irc bridge once the new website comes out (maybe to a specific #monero-help chan with strict policies about no casual chatting, short questions... Just a thought.
A regular FAQ is also considered.
An acid test would be to set up a help method that is usable by me and my friends. We are representatives of a very big market segment of people in 30s-40s-50s, lots of dough, short attention span, and if not totally inept in technology, at least highly conservative in installing new stuff etc. #monero does not qualify. Facebook/skype chat does. Email sucks. I am with you if arranging a help line incurs costs. My type of people also do not generally care if help is not free. What we do care is to find help when we need it and that the solution actually works. If you don't mind me asking, what implicit promises are being discussed here? The promise to make the CryptoNote software less of a mess and more up to the current standard the Bitcoin core client is in?
Well if I am not able to use this coin without assistance before Christmas, I will sell it all and buy doge (if that's still available) what do you think of this shit, man??!? |
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People are looking for a reason to sell. Not to buy.
The people are of 2 kinds. Every sane bitcoiner is near all-in now, because of where we are in the cycle. Being all-in means all you can do is hold or sell. Buying button is greyed out. The ones with no bitcoins cannot sell, only buy (or hold their dollars). To get the price to 10 times the current level, a lot of dollars need to be invested into bitcoin, and that is not coming from the current, maxxed-out people who hang around in this thread. Almost none of it. On the contrary: the people here will be the ones in the position to stop the rally when we finally decide to collectively sell so much that the buying pressure is absorbed and price plummets from the highs. Whatever happens before that new money gets interested is of little significance. Except to those idiots that just cannot wait a few months (like me selling BTC2k last september...) |
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Price is "low" because of the inflation rate and we expect it to be that way for quite some time still, with a low rise, one feature at a time. The "low price" is more than three times what it was when it landed on Poloniex.
And before Poloniex, it was already regarded as "high" or "pump" in the trading thread by those who had no stake. XMR is still, even at these levels, not a "cheap" coin. It needs to deliver the implicit promises in a timely manner against the exponentially (would be more dramatic to say increasing but that is not correct  ) decreasing new mintage coming to the market. - the more people are coming into Monero, the worse the signal-to-noise ratio (hint for those who don't understand signal-to-noise ratio: google for the term, I won't babysit you). So if we have a low SNR, this means that we are enjoying success.
This is right. If you want to have a deeper discussion on XMR (and other alts), there is my altcoin observer, for example. Following this thread is indeed too much for people whose time carries a price tag. - "low" price => wider spread of monero
I am afraid I don't believe this one. Low price just means fewer miners and buyers. High price is higher spread, which is good. But XMR price is just about right atm, not too low to degenerate into what would be labeled ninjamining 2 years afterwards, and also not too high to risk a dev/earlyadopter dump-and-abandon scheme. Having said in May that I like it at 0.004 and like a lot at 0.002 but would not buy over 0.010 (because it will come down so I can continue buying), I think I am vindicated by the market. About official support man: there is none and this is good. There are two major teams: core team (monero account) and extended team (monero-extended account). Oftentimes, members of both teams reply with their own nick (and this is good too).
Actually this might be a good idea to have! Just a technical guy who is reachable by chat from the XMR webpage. Most of the newbie questions can be answered by someone who is not in dev level right (and I know at least one person who had several devs helping him to install a wallet with no success still to this day.... ) |
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OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile?  |
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rpietila spirituality and philosophy observer thread  It's only when other people than me start threads with "rpietila" in the header, then my victory is complete |
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I am not doubting the network effect laws. I am doubting the 'Monero is strongest' part. Although I like the name, the name is best of them all. Some Hero members support is also good. But this race has just started. Bitcoin had a few years of network effect before others started to race with it. CN coins all begin at the same time, excluding Bytecoin for obvious reasons. Hence, the outcome is unclear.
I think some of those hero members are trying to make it seem like a foregone conclusion that XMR is going to be the winner because they have already invested in it. BBR started just a few weeks later and has some nice innovation and arguably the most knowledgeable cryptonote dev in Crypto Zoidberg. It is nice to have a good dev, (and we also have a good dev team in XMR), but it is the Hero members alone who can "fish" for more hero members to join, and others will follow. The hero members don't invest or promote junk. XMR has a disproportionate large number of hero members supporting it, and this exactly is the network effect that is hard to overcome. |
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It's the time to inform everybody that the III Bitcoin Supernode Meeting will commence tomorrow in Malla castle. So I will not be too active to write in here during the rest of the week. Hopefully the others present will show how the life here looks like. |
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Looks like BBR is taking over. What does rpietila think about this?
I still don't know enough of the coin, so I'll stick with XMR. The little I know does not warrant a switch. ADD: Boolberry is so stupid a name that it must be changed before I'll consider |
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Is that the real Risto chatting under the name rpietila on Poloniex?
Yes. |
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[XMR usable by an average person] Right now no, no and no. Although please don't forget that even Bitcoin is a pain to use by average people. In fact average people can barely get a printer to work.
It required over an hour by my skilled friend to get the printer to work. I can use BTC quite fine. XMR not so. The printer has not become any easier over the years. Hopefully crypto will... |
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I bet everyone just let rpietilla feed you with wet dreams in his alt coin observer thread...
What have I now done  I told in advance that I would stop buying at 0.01 and once I did, it immediately collapsed.  |
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Secondly, the price per unit of litecoin/dogecoin is a niche by itself for the mass.
True that  d'oh <facepalm> |
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Is anyone expecting a (small) pump on LTC?
Not really. Even though LTC is by a good margin the coin #2 atm, there is no niche for it in the grand scheme of things, so the fall will be from high, and smart money is positioning away from it accordingly. |
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I was just skimming through very old threads, its amazing how people used to talk about 100-1000btc (or more), like it was nothing. I hope for their sake they held on.
Hopefully in two years they'll say the same about "people who own 1 or more bitcoin" Will crypto win over fiat? Is BTC the winning crypto? As long as the answer to both of these questions is positive, just hold any number above BTC1 and you will be rich, and anything over BTC0.1 will be doing well, anything over BTC0.01 is above average, since the average guys will have BTC0.001 or less. It does not matter at all how much fiat someone has, until he buys BTC with it, he will have none. |
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I established the theory of Bitcoin Supernode early 2013. The current introduction to the topic can be found in another forum, quoted below: My dearest readers,
BITCOIN SUPERNODE - THE NORMATIVE THREAD aims to foresee the development of the socioeconomic Bitcoin network, discuss it, and guide the development with actionable suggestions that would interfere with the natural course of affairs as little as possible while bringing as many benefits as possible to both those who take part in a way or another and those who do not.
Background
Bitcoin economy consists of bitcoin holders and interactions between them. There are currently 2 million bitcoin holders who hold on average 6,000 mBTC (median 70 mBTC). About 790 of them have bitcoin holdings valued at least $1 million.
Rather large percentage of such large holders are bitcoin enthusiasts who also largely share a liberty-loving ("liberal", "libertarian", "anti-statist", ..) worldview. They are proficient in technology, highly educated and civil. At this point they tend to be male with age distribution centered around 30-35, which is not important per se, but nevertheless a fact.
The concentration of financial means in the hands of the people described above in a networked environment is a potentially explosive thing. Until now it has not been witnessed in a large scale because of the following factors:
- Large concentrations of bitcoins have been in the hands of earliest adopters, who are generally younger with less interest/experience/contacts/whatever in societal matters than the current profile of holders.
- The number of people whose bitcoin stash has been worth any serious old world money was negligible prior to 2013.
- There has been more uncertainty about Bitcoin's future, and the scenario of its ultimate takeover has been shared with very few people and even they may have given it a low probability of success.
- Many have been lulled into thinking that the Bitcoin Foundation is the way to further this kind of mindset.
The growth from 1 user to 2 million users in 5.1 years has meant 17.2x yearly increase. Meanwhile bitcoin price has risen on average 12.6x yearly. The market cap has grown from nothing to about $10 billion. The fiat value of a mean holding exploded in 2013 and is already $5,000. (I have a paid analyst who is currently compiling and verifying these figures.) All these can likely be modelled with exponential function albeit with considerable variation from the trend. [I cannot currently expound the dynamics why, but] Bitcoin's self-similarity suggests that the trends stay intact until there is no more new entrants, or a major event interrupts the system.
Staying in the trendline channel, the price of 1 mBTC is expected to reach $3-$13 in 2014. The number of users would be 10-30 million. The number of liberty-loving people who have at least $1M in bitcoins + other assets and capabilities would number in thousands. (This estimate does not count all large holders, only the ones that fulfill the criteria, which is - less the actual holdings - pretty much the same criteria I use when inviting people to this forum.)
At this point, and especially zooming forward to the end of 2014, 2015 and 2016, interaction between these holders, many of which already have connections between each other, will inevitably increase. The aim of the Supernode Network is to facilitate this interaction and, in a sense, to "regulate" it. At present the Bitcoin world is a jungle, where everybody has had to learn the hard way. I am all for learning the realities of this world, but now our combined effort could make the world a more difficult place for scammers and rogue and organized thiefs alike. Collecting and publishing the best practices, having some old world resources (media, lawyers) at our pay, and doing business among ourselves with the old-fashioned way of personal guarantees would go a long way of making this jungle a wild west - a place of liberty, opportunity or refuge, whichever way you like it.
By "Supernode" I mean a person, or person-centric organization, where the person possesses the willingness, knowledge, time and means (=bitcoins) to effectively participate in the mind-blowing transition that is ongoing and ahead of us. I would add that to qualify as a supernode, you should be fearless of adversity and manage your risks so that you can face the total defeat of all crypto (or prospect of it) without losing heart or your ability to function.
There is a rather widely held misunderstanding that Bitcoin network technically has or could have some kind of supernodes. It does not. Network nodes are equal. Some altcoins have masternodes and also have borrowed the term "supernode" for a technical meaning. But in Bitcoin context, the Supernode is a socio-economical construct bolded above. In the strict sense banks cannot be Supernodes even if they become major power centers, because Supernode is defined as being the opposite force to the legacy system. So the word conveys not only the extent of resources, but also the intent to use them for the furtherance of the liberation of mankind in the cryptoworld context. @Este Nuno: My Supernode was reactivated in January in the II Supernode General Meeting in Tallinn. Next weekend we are having the III Bitcoin Supernode Network Preparatory Meeting in Malla. There are delegates from Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, U.S., Netherlands, France, South Africa, U.K., Latvia and Korea. |
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I know full well how many dollars of new investment is needed each day to retain the valuation.
As with BTC, it does not matter what the price is. What matters is how many % of the coin you own, if the technology is sound and has a potential to break out. MRO was the first coin with interesting technology and fair launch. That's why I hold approx the same % as I hold BTC.
I mentioned this in ToF, so let it be known here also that I like MRO very much at 0.002, I like it at 0.004, but would not buy over 0.010. Going to 0.020 in the immediate future is a sell zone with an intention to buy back at 0.010 or less.
Emphasis new. |
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Note to new entrants, concerned about the "first mover unfair advantage": You cannot make me un-rich by refusing to buy bitcoins
but
You CAN make yourself remain un-rich by refusing to buy them |
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Based on current supply & last prices at poloniex:
BBR market cap BTC678
XMR (via coinmarketcap) BTC7,759 Is there a tangible reason for such a disparity? If every piece of paper was as valuable, you could print numbers on paper and pay your dinner with it. If every coin was as valuable, copying Bitcoin 1:1 and mining it to yourself would make you immensely wealthy. It is called "legitimacy" and it's hard to get. The U.S. barely manages to retain theirs by having a 51% attack on the world's military. With garagecoins, it is harder. ADD: comparing market caps with current number of coins is misleading. The total number (or perhaps the number at the point when yearly inflation goes <2%) is more important. |
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