rpietila Altcoin Observer

[saddambitcoin]

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006.  Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

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[GreekBitcoin]

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006.  Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I was too confident also and i didnt traded anything so i missed the opportunity to sell high buy lower. And i bought like 5% more at 0.007. Oh well...

[darkota]

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006.  Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I remember when I bought in Darkcoin at $2.50 and it dropped to $1.20....Then it went back up to $2.50 about 2 weeks later, I sold at that price to not loose profit..and from $2.50 it went straight up to $15.


I'm still crying..

[saddambitcoin]

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006.  Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I remember when I bought in Darkcoin at $2.50 and it dropped to $1.20....Then it went back up to $2.50 about 2 weeks later, I sold at that price to not loose profit..and from $2.50 it went straight up to $15.


I'm still crying..

Ouch. But at least you did not lose money!

Reminds me of when LTC was taking off in March last year...I bought some at 0.005 BTC then gradually more until it topped at 0.0145 and crashed to half that. I was down at least 25 BTC for a week and really kicking myself for getting caught up in the pump. But then a couple weeks later it took off again!

So I hold strong on Monero because I think it really has great value. It's fun to send XMR and see how it splits up your outputs. It really works and the devs are focusing on the core issues so I think the next few months will be good for XMR.

[aminorex]

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down.  It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

I'm still crying..

Yeah! You cry all over the "alt" section of the forum with your massive troll post! 

[statdude]

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down.  It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

Aminorex (or anyone), what are your thoughts on XMR versus current hotshot VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

[nakaone]

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

[aminorex]

what are your thoughts on XMR versus flavor of the week VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

Personally, I don't speculate.  I'm definitely not the one to ask.  Touting anonymity is characteristic of scams these days.  Verify all technology claims before investing.  I won't say anything good or bad about VRC, as I am ignorant about it.  But I would be remiss not to observe that the only reasonable default assumption for an alt is that it is a scam of some kind, and such things depend more on flash and PR, and less on technology.

If you want to participate in pump & dump, I'm sure there are much better places to ask.  I think most people in this thread are interested in things which increase in utility over time, with marks rising to reflect that.   (It's hard to short alts, except LTC.)  Most of the p&d expertise will hang out elsewhere.  

[aminorex]

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

All of the snake oil crypto which is being released for pump and dump which touts anonymity has to compete with the ring signature technique.  That creates a lot of motivated actors who will seek to create uncertainty about the sound crypto technique, in order that they might compete on more equal grounds.

Realistically, the ring signature technique is based on crypto which is 16 years old.  That's the approximate pace at which this sort of innovation occurs.  While it is possible that next week some acned autistic child of E.E. and Math parents in a Palo Alto basement will crank out a fundamentally innovative new technique which will out-compete ring signatures (and decide that instead of a military contract they can best monetize it by putting yet another horse in the crypto-currency anonymity race) I wouldn't worry about it. 

[Melbustus]

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down.  It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

Aminorex (or anyone), what are your thoughts on XMR versus current hotshot VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

Remember Quark?

There have been quite a few flashy hotshot social-media-aggressive coins that have come and gone.

[devphp]

I wouldn't worry about it. 

But would you worry about other clones of Bytecoin that can quickly copy all commits of XMR?

[GreekBitcoin]

I wouldn't worry about it. 

But would you worry about other clones of Bytecoin that can quickly copy all commits of XMR?

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

[Melbustus]

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

...

Realistically, the ring signature technique is based on crypto which is 16 years old.  That's the approximate pace at which this sort of innovation occurs.  While it is possible that next week some acned autistic child of E.E. and Math parents in a Palo Alto basement will crank out a fundamentally innovative new technique which will out-compete ring signatures (and decide that instead of a military contract they can best monetize it by putting yet another horse in the crypto-currency anonymity race) I wouldn't worry about it. 

To be fair, Zerocoin/cash is the other potential here. But given that it doesn't actually exist in the wild, and CryptoNote does, it's seeming likely that the network effect will materialize around a CN coin, probably Monero. As long as CN proves "good enough", it probably wins.

[devphp]

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

Bitcoin had a few years first mover advantage, which some people call network effect, Monero doesn't have that. BBR team doesn't follow, but innovates. Fantomcoin innovates - merge-mines on all CNs - potentially largest network. Where is Monero's advantage?

[Melbustus]

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

Bitcoin had a few years first mover advantage, which some people call network effect, Monero doesn't have that.

Have you noticed all the Hero members in this thread voicing support for Monero? How many people with activity over 500 do you see in other alt threads?

It's not nothing that the people who saw the intellectual argument for bitcoin *early*, and bootstrapped it, are getting behind another coin....many of us for the first time.

That said, we *are* early enough that another CN coin *could* overtake through some chaotic happenstance... But you have to go with probabilities. This process is how network effect works; what's currently strongest gets the support, and it therefore grows stronger. Soon enough the strength is far harder to overcome.

[devphp]

...this is how network effect works; what's currently strongest gets the support, and it therefore grows stronger. Soon enough the strength is far harder to overcome.

Since that is only a theory, which has to be proven, we shall have to see if that is the case. Since before Bitcoin there were no Hero members, and Hero members just now are voicing their support for Monero that attracted their attention, this is the first precedent of this kind.

[Melbustus]

...this is how network effect works; what's currently strongest gets the support, and it therefore grows stronger. Soon enough the strength is far harder to overcome.

Since that is only a theory, which has to be proven, we shall have to see if that is the case. Since before Bitcoin there were no Hero members, and Hero members just now are voicing their support for Monero that attracted their attention, this is the first precedent of this kind.

Network effect in general is an observed and somewhat quantified phenomenon.

And it's an accepted monetary principle that currency exhibits one of the strongest network effects of anything.

But yes - applying *any* concept to crypto-currency is necessarily an experiment. Which is partly what makes this entire thing so fascinating.

[devphp]

I am not doubting the network effect laws. I am doubting the 'Monero is strongest' part. Although I like the name, the name is best of them all. Some Hero members support is also good. But this race has just started. Bitcoin had a few years of network effect before others started to race with it. CN coins all begin at the same time, excluding Bytecoin for obvious reasons. Hence, the outcome is unclear.

[Conurtrol]

I am not doubting the network effect laws. I am doubting the 'Monero is strongest' part. Although I like the name, the name is best of them all. Some Hero members support is also good. But this race has just started. Bitcoin had a few years of network effect before others started to race with it. CN coins all begin at the same time, excluding Bytecoin for obvious reasons. Hence, the outcome is unclear.

I think some of those hero members are trying to make it seem like a foregone conclusion that XMR is going to be the winner because they have already invested in it. BBR started just a few weeks later and has some nice innovation and arguably the most knowledgeable cryptonote dev in Crypto Zoidberg.