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4801  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 17, 2014, 10:06:05 AM
The going rate before the announcement was 650 so anything below is already a discount.
4802  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 17, 2014, 09:48:46 AM
Can someone in the know summarize the BBR coin for me in 10 lines, please.
4803  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 17, 2014, 09:48:14 AM
The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

This is not a one-way street. If the emission curve is too slow, it may reduce interest in the coin, because high inflation is bad for the current holders. If few people see a point in holding, then the coin value stays low and it has a difficulty in maintaining traction.

If the curve is too steep, the inflation soon goes down, which is bad for network security and discourages the institutional investor phase as they might not find the coin legitimate enough if it is nearly fully mined when they wake up. (This is much more common than the "too slow" case, which I don't really see many examples of).

The optimum lies in between, obviously, and in my opinion MRO is pretty near optimal of the 2014 started coins.
4804  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 17, 2014, 06:22:44 AM
I think he forgot to take into account that botnets mine for free.
Botnets are a finite resource and therefore a cost applies. Opportunity cost if nothing else.

True.

0.02 would be sustainable if the marginal supply cost reached 0.02.

False. At that price, MRO new mintage is worth BTC480 per day. If these don't find willing holders the price drops. Would be true in the following format:
"The marginal supply cost would reach 0.02 if that price were sustainable."
4805  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 08:32:14 PM
Hopefully nobody bought QCN. Don't think it's going to rise again...

It was a typical pump&dump coin.

Monero made us happy. What's your shot term value expectation? I remember you said "I don't buy with 0.01 BTC price." What's the selling point for short term?

0.02 is unsustainable this year.
4806  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 08:30:50 PM
Also, this thread is severely lacking in free lunches.

It is started by me, so everybody assumes that it is just normal, if not intended. Notice also the lack of pics and color.

4807  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 07:43:05 PM
Hopefully nobody bought QCN. Don't think it's going to rise again...
4808  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 07:42:20 PM
Which part of the quote do you doubt?

This part:
Quote
This is a good thing for the coin, and I would say definitely better than if it was cheap for a long time and then shot up in price. In the latter case it would be effectively premine from the late entrants' point of view and it might be rejected, similarly as I reject all the coins that are more than 10% mined when I hear about them.

I guess it depends on how you qualify cheap though -- Bitcoin's price was obscenely cheap early on. I guess I wasn't sure if you were referring to Monero as being like this, though.

I was saying that Monero has a slow emission schedule, which is good. But if the price stays low until nearly all have been mined, and then shoots up, the coin can be perceived to be a premined coin*, meaning that the benefit is lost. In this respect, it is good that the price goes up in the meantime instead of going down.

*) Quark is an example of an effective premine masquerading as a legit mining period.
4809  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 04:54:03 PM
Quote
Higher price gives more resources to the devs (who are typically large holders) and early investors, and makes all holders happy. This is a good thing for the coin, and I would say definitely better than if it was cheap for a long time and then shot up in price. In the latter case it would be effectively premine from the late entrants' point of view and it might be rejected, similarly as I reject all the coins that are more than 10% mined when I hear about them.
I doubt it, there's still massive amounts of inflation (~23,040 coins to miners each day).
http://monerochain.info/charts/coins

It's not until 2-3 years in that we'll likely see obscene increases in price given simple economics.

Which part of the quote do you doubt?
4810  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: June 16, 2014, 08:06:40 AM
I'm watching Monero closely. Do you think this rising price is healthy for Monero's long term value?

Higher price gives more resources to the devs (who are typically large holders) and early investors, and makes all holders happy. This is a good thing for the coin, and I would say definitely better than if it was cheap for a long time and then shot up in price. In the latter case it would be effectively premine from the late entrants' point of view and it might be rejected, similarly as I reject all the coins that are more than 10% mined when I hear about them.
4811  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 15, 2014, 03:26:27 PM
I don't really understand why you are short-term worried of the share of one pool. I heard that in 24 hours, it had shrunk from 51% to 34%, which means that the community was able to redirect 1/3 of the hashing previously sent to Ghash to other pools. IN 24 HOURS! In decentralized way! Wow.

It remains somewhat of a concern that a malicious entity can own 76% of the hashing power, but a pool where people voluntarily send 51% is not a realistic threat to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Calm down. The problem was solved already, proving that it was not much of a problem.
4812  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest on: June 14, 2014, 01:01:48 PM
If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).

...after which it feels all the worse to be eliminated in August  Tongue
4813  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 14, 2014, 11:36:18 AM
What do you risto think about the GHash.IO shit?

IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.

Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?

That's a nonissue.

I don't mean that there wasn't work to be done on that field, but I mean the things have been discussed for 3 years already so there is no reason to do anything now unless you are a miner yourself.

Selling in the middle of an uptrend is not smart.
4814  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 14, 2014, 09:20:53 AM
I changed my mind concerning the "unfairness" of treatment between U.S. and foreign bidders. It seems that it is rather uncommon to give any opportunity for the foreign bidders. I also don't accept U.S. customers so it's pot blaming the kettle here... Cheesy
4815  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 14, 2014, 09:18:11 AM
Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.
4816  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: June 14, 2014, 08:00:31 AM
And this is the bad part about the Bitcoin protocol, anyone with the right power can take everything you own away in a matter of seconds as everything will be in the blockchain.

Bad part of you is that you are a fearmongrel. Bitcoin is the most difficult asset to confiscate away from you, and when that is prone to change (which it probably will in the future), the libertarians have already migrated their wealth to another chain that retains their liberty.

Yes torture is always an option, but resorting to that means that the underlying protocol is sound. Otherwise they could just enslave you without bothering to even notify you, which is what is currently practiced.

ADD: Most of the western world is so hopelessly clueless concerning propaganda that they violently oppose even a hint that they might have been brainwashed since childhood (even though the evidence is all around us) and yet as violently attack every photoshop manipulation of the rogue governments, whose rogueness happens to 100% coincide with who owns their monetary supply, as you mentioned.
4817  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: June 14, 2014, 07:16:51 AM
What?  So the top .1% of Bitcoin holders own nearly 50% of all the Bitcoin wealth?

That's nuts. I think we fiat it's like 1% own around 40% of all fiat.

Haha. In fiat, a collective of perhaps 10 real decision makers controls all of it. Including 60% of corporations, and by extension of lawmaking, almost all the rest of the business also.

Quote
But I'm gonna stick to my prediction that by Christmas 25% of Bitcoin will be owned by large banks, corps, Hedge Funds, govts, etc and over 50% in the next 18 months. And since they can't get the .1% to sell very much they're gonna have to steal a lot of it.

And to support that crazy theory look at the latest news which shows that the Silk Road Bitcoin, DPR Bitcoins and the [stolen] Gox Bitcoins, all moved within 72 hours of each other.  

Astute observation. Outright stealing is not the only way to acquire control over something, though. With corporations, it is much more indirect. The battle is not whether people have access to certain accounts in a ledger but whether people can pursue their happiness freely without interference from the thugs and goons working for banksters and masquerading as our elected leaders. Certainly putting all bitcoiners in jail is an interference of this right, but it can be achieved also by other means.
4818  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 14, 2014, 07:05:23 AM
i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

Crony auction at its best. Too short notice for anyone with BTC to attend. Until next monday I am supposed to have created a bank account in the U.S., and have transferred 100% of my anticipated total bid amount into it in USD, the proceed of the bitcoin sales that I have made in the space of this few hours/days?

Sorry. This is going to achieve exactly what was intended. Almost no bids, and the ones rock-bottom. Bad publicity, resulting panic selling. Bitcoins of the people going to the hands of banksters cheaply. But really - what else did you expect?   Roll Eyes

It is actually a over a week to set up the US bank account and initiate the wire transfer for the 200,000 USD deposit. The deadline for registration is noon June 23rd 2014. For the balance of the funds on a winning bid it is July 01, 2014.

Edit: Why would anyone with BTC sell BTC to raise USD in order to participate in this auction? Hoping to get back in at a lower price? This could very easily backfire.

It said that the bolded part is also true.

I anticipate it will go at a discount. Also I want to keep the others honest by not giving too much discount. Btw. "discount" is calculated from the base price of $650, which was prevailing before the news.
4819  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 13, 2014, 07:31:26 AM
What's your take on the 51% situation with GHash.io. Do you think it will harm us?

No.

Nothing will harm Bitcoin. The short term events may provide better entry prices (like the auction). I just can't make myself worried about the 51%.
4820  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 13, 2014, 07:21:26 AM
i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

Crony auction at its best. Too short notice for anyone with BTC to attend. Until next monday I am supposed to have created a bank account in the U.S., and have transferred 100% of my anticipated total bid amount into it in USD, the proceed of the bitcoin sales that I have made in the space of this few hours/days?

Sorry. This is going to achieve exactly what was intended. Almost no bids, and the ones rock-bottom. Bad publicity, resulting panic selling. Bitcoins of the people going to the hands of banksters cheaply. But really - what else did you expect?   Roll Eyes
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