rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

Crony auction at its best. Too short notice for anyone with BTC to attend. Until next monday I am supposed to have created a bank account in the U.S., and have transferred 100% of my anticipated total bid amount into it in USD, the proceed of the bitcoin sales that I have made in the space of this few hours/days?

Sorry. This is going to achieve exactly what was intended. Almost no bids, and the ones rock-bottom. Bad publicity, resulting panic selling. Bitcoins of the people going to the hands of banksters cheaply. But really - what else did you expect?  

It is actually a over a week to set up the US bank account and initiate the wire transfer for the 200,000 USD deposit. The deadline for registration is noon June 23rd 2014. For the balance of the funds on a winning bid it is July 01, 2014.

Edit: Why would anyone with BTC sell BTC to raise USD in order to participate in this auction? Hoping to get back in at a lower price? This could very easily backfire.

It said that the bolded part is also true.

I anticipate it will go at a discount. Also I want to keep the others honest by not giving too much discount. Btw. "discount" is calculated from the base price of $650, which was prevailing before the news.

[sidhujag]

Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

[rpietila]

Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.

[rpietila]

I changed my mind concerning the "unfairness" of treatment between U.S. and foreign bidders. It seems that it is rather uncommon to give any opportunity for the foreign bidders. I also don't accept U.S. customers so it's pot blaming the kettle here...

[doctor877]

What do you risto think about the GHash.IO shit?

IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.


Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?

[rpietila]

What do you risto think about the GHash.IO shit?

IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.

Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?

That's a nonissue.

I don't mean that there wasn't work to be done on that field, but I mean the things have been discussed for 3 years already so there is no reason to do anything now unless you are a miner yourself.

Selling in the middle of an uptrend is not smart.

[kehtolo]

I was also thinking of shorting a %'age - but then decided no.

Small gains compared to just waiting. Patience is the rarest gift. I need more of it.

[MahaRamana]

Selling in the middle of an uptrend is not smart.

We are in a downtrend since around 666, and a downtrend since 1163.
It is true that we are in an uptrend since around 350 (and since 0) but it all depends on the perspective you take and the faith you have.

Now seems to be a poor moment to sell because the market clearly overreacted to the auction announcement. But when we were stuck at 640 it felt like the market was waiting for a reason to go lower. I think it would have corrected even without the news so the news only exaggerated the correction.

However, until we are at a new ATH, it can be argued that we are still in a downtrend since the previous one.

[zimmah]

Downtrend or not, how low do oyu seriously think it will go?

I think $550 is as low as it gets. And even that was much lower than i ever expected it to be.

[MahaRamana]

Downtrend or not, how low do oyu seriously think it will go?

I think $550 is as low as it gets. And even that was much lower than i ever expected it to be.

Looking at the selling pressure today, I really would not rule out breaking 550. We might very well test the green support line that pftq was drawing a few posts ago. It is currently around 520. If 520 would not hold, there is not much technical support until 440.

But I hope 550 holds fine and we rebound now.

[lstern]

Downtrend or not, how low do oyu seriously think it will go?

I think $550 is as low as it gets. And even that was much lower than i ever expected it to be.

Looking at the selling pressure today, I really would not rule out breaking 550. We might very well test the green support line that pftq was drawing a few posts ago. It is currently around 520. If 520 would not hold, there is not much technical support until 440.

But I hope 550 holds fine and we rebound now.

While $550 seems the "right" value for the correction, I guess the downtrend will continue until the auction closes so it can break the $500 line before rebound

[sidhujag]

anyone have a link to total average exchange volume traded for bitcoin per day? I want to know how many btc are being traded on the big exchanges.

[sidhujag]

Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.

mtgox volume wasn't replaced... so I don't think we are at the correct settling price... I think $400 is a potential bottom but may not stop on the way down... I changed my mind and unless I see substantial gain in volume per day I think price is vastly overpriced...but this is a great thing for bit coin and its ability to attract a wider audience.

[Arghhh]

Note that comparative publicized volume is no longer a valid measure of activity post-MtGox for a combination of several reasons:

1. Scams, hacks, insolvencies... The volume coming through public exchanges are a fraction of what they were in the past due to loss of public trust. Even now, Bitstamp with its impossible KYC/AML procedure is being put to the question of whether it is solvent or not.

2. With the advent of services like BitPay and Coinbase, many merchants and customers are finding themselves off-chain.

3. Bitcoin has gotten way more expensive, each bitcoin transacted represent a lot more value now. My observation is that though the volume in terms of BTC has gone down, the aggregate value transacted has gone up.

Bottom line: Don't put too much weight in volume.

[sidhujag]

Note that comparative publicized volume is no longer a valid measure of activity post-MtGox for a combination of several reasons:

1. Scams, hacks, insolvencies... The volume coming through public exchanges are a fraction of what they were in the past due to loss of public trust. Even now, Bitstamp with its impossible KYC/AML procedure is being put to the question of whether it is solvent or not.

2. With the advent of services like BitPay and Coinbase, many merchants and customers are finding themselves off-chain.

3. Bitcoin has gotten way more expensive, each bitcoin transacted represent a lot more value now. My observation is that though the volume in terms of BTC has gone down, the aggregate value transacted has gone up.

Bottom line: Don't put too much weight in volume.

Volume is everything... #3 is moot point since this just means we are overbought is you think # of coins transacted is too high compared to price. At some point price will stabilize based on number of new coins bought per day vs sellers of older coins... this is where volume comes into play... I usually divide by 10 to be safe.

#1 means we are overpriced too...

#2 is valid.. not sure about offline tx but may be alot less and negligible compared to exchange volume (most people still buy bitcoins online vs offline... i dont care that much about one time transactions.. but daily volume is more important to determine equilibrium.

[MahaRamana]

Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.

mtgox volume wasn't replaced... so I don't think we are at the correct settling price... I think $400 is a potential bottom but may not stop on the way down... I changed my mind and unless I see substantial gain in volume per day I think price is vastly overpriced...but this is a great thing for bit coin and its ability to attract a wider audience.

Exchange volume is not a good indicator in my opinion.

A better indicator would be the volume of BTC that is transacted each day, measured in USD.
https://blockchain.info/fr/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd

We are much higher than in 2013, but not exponentially higher.

It does not look to me like price is vastly overpriced. But the price level given by the trendline certainly is.

[Parazyd]

rpietila, what do you think will now happen when Wall Street started trading Bitcoin. Do you think it's good or bad?

[Dragonkiller]

rpietila, what do you think will now happen when Wall Street started trading Bitcoin. Do you think it's good or bad?

Good initially. Bad over the long run. Good initially because they'll pump the price getting in. After that, they have a million tricks to play.

[Its About Sharing]

rpietila, what do you think will now happen when Wall Street started trading Bitcoin. Do you think it's good or bad?

Good initially. Bad over the long run. Good initially because they'll pump the price getting in. After that, they have a million tricks to play.

They certainly have a million tricks - manipulating news, huge liquidity to move the price, etc. But, there is the rest of the world involved
here, and no derivatives, naked short selling, etc. which they no longer have at there disposal - I get the feeling once BTC gets going, there bag of
tricks will be much smaller.

But, ass long as they have "the" or "a" reserve currency at their disposal, they can certainly make things extremely
ugly. Buying and selling huge amounts to make BTC very volatile (like we have not yet seen) is a worry. They might be able to effectively neuter it.
Could you imagine them buying the complete order book up, then dumping everything? When you can print money, why not? When you can hide
behind countries, people, etc. why not?
But I think rather than that they will try to utilize it...

IAS

[Erdogan]

Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.

Closer to risk better reward.

If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.

mtgox volume wasn't replaced... so I don't think we are at the correct settling price... I think $400 is a potential bottom but may not stop on the way down... I changed my mind and unless I see substantial gain in volume per day I think price is vastly overpriced...but this is a great thing for bit coin and its ability to attract a wider audience.

You are wrong in believing that the volume is a fundamental input for price rise. Even if you subscribe to the Keynesian quantity of money theory, which is wrong, but includes money velocity, you are wrong, because purely financial transactions are not included in the velocity. The price rise you see with volume (sometimes, not during dumps!) is from the people who were on the sidelines, then changed their minds and went in.