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4941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Philosophical Observer - Bitcoin thought movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2022, 07:21:02 PM
If someone were to offer me a billion dollars right now to give up some of those positive life experiences, I would tell him to take his money straight to hell.  That is not hyperbole.  Some things are priceless.

I know, also, that sometimes people do things differently from what they say that they would do when there is actual concrete offer on the table rather than exploring a hypothetical that may well never be presented..

There is an old saying:  “May I not be put to the test.”

I despise the stereotype of thoughtless people who declare, “I would rather X than Y,” without any deep, experiential, introspective knowledge of how they react in various situations.  Those whose shallow lives have had comforts that they inevitably take for granted.  It is commonplace.

You seem to be describing the is versus ought dilemma in the sense that people need to get to their own place on their own and we try to appreciate people for how they are rather than how we might think that they should be.


If you better knew me...  Sigh.  

Is it necessary?


I am usually in the position of correcting people when they make such declarations, and it is clear to me that they would most likely betray all they ever loved to claim a bribe of a million dollars, or even much less—never mind a billion!

There is likely some truth to the everyone has a price, and I doubt that it is a bad thing... but surely there are some things that some people will refuse to do, even if they are tortured to death, but even some of those people will sometimes "give in" to the demands.  I feel like I am getting astray here.

I choose my words carefully, and I do not speak lightly.

Fair enough.. but still does not mean that you say all the right things or that you do not have regrets or that you cannot learn along the way.. even if you might have chosen the words were "best" at the particular moment that you were communicating them.

On the flipside, I have faced the moment of truth.  I have had the real-life experience of defiantly declaring, “I would rather die in the gutter than do X,” and soon thereafter struggling to survive, very nearly dying in the gutter, and incurring irreparable permanent damage to my health, instead of surrendering and succumbing to X.  I know whereof I speak.  I will never do X.

Sometimes we make the right decision.. frequently we are not pushed to the limits to have to really test our resolve, and many times it is not relevant regarding how extreme that we might go.. at the same time, there is likely some ways to structure your actions, behaviors and your life in such a way that you avoid certain dilemmas or even having to make extreme choices, and that may well not be a bad thing.  There is likely some value in not living on the extreme but attempting to go down a path that is sufficiently challenging and individualized but not engaged in daily ongoing drama.


But it is not the way of the modern world.  I am an atavism.

There are a lot of people in the world and they make various choices, and some people have more options than others.. and surely, there is a difference with starting points and starting out resources, too.

Both you and I likely realize that none of these relationship matters are completely absolute - because it is the case that the longer that we are around can contribute towards us being more or less comfortable with other members - maybe certain members more than others.

True.

My own perceptions are much affected by some seemingly impossible extremes.  I have had the experience of reposing absolute, unreserved, unconditional trust in a faceless, voiceless, totally anonymous party whom I could never meet.  A disembodied soul, insofar as I was concerned.  Whoever it was, I trusted that person far more than I trusted the woman whom I once almost married IRL.  The experience left an indelible mark on me.  I wouldn’t trade it for any amount of money—not $billions, not $trillions, not 21m BTC, not a trainload of gold.

I find a lot of value to meet people in person.. though you are correct that the dynamics are different.. so it is not always easy to figure out a balance.

Actually, there are a lot of levels in terms of getting to know people, and maybe even what the expectations of a relationship might be whether business, personal or some combination... and people will treat these matters in different ways in terms of screening and/or setting expectations.. and that can happen on both the business level and on the personal level .. even though it might feel a bit strange when they overlap in various ways.. which is almost inevitable if dealing with people and a variety of relationships.


Throughout my life, I have always aspired to the impossible.  Rarely have I ever even come close to my goals.

That is not a good thing.  It seems more practical to have both achievable goals and aspirational goals.. and sure they can change along the way too.. but let's say that when you are 14 years old you start to look into various possible career paths and you end up changing at 18, 22 and 26, but all along you are making progress and perhaps having some set backs too, and as you go some goals are met, and some choices will affect whether there is an ability to change paths later down the road.

It was not my only rare experience in cypherspace, although it was by far the most unusual.  How can such experiences not affect my general outlook and expectations?

Sure.. we are affected by our experiences, and sometimes we learn from them too, and I am not denying that relationships and/or experiences can be cyperspace only or have physical meeting involved or both.

No offense, Jay, but if anyone were hypothetically to offer me $100k or even $10k to cease all discussion with you, I would probably take the money.  Why should I not?  I know that you don’t really care about anyone on the Internet.  We are just chit-chatting and passing by—right?


Nothing wrong with that hypothetical, but if I want to negotiate down a bit more, then would you be willing to take $50 to stop?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Good discussion.  Too bad this is not much a philosophical venue.

No problema.. as long as you are not pumping shitcoins or shilling some other bullshit.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
4942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2022, 05:56:31 PM
I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottomed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?


I hope you are right...  I guess the part I am not seeing is the sort of action that makes this look like something other than just a big bear flag.  The DOWN was violent, but the UP has not been.   Yet.

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

Well.. it's not exactly Kill Bill yet, but we're to Pulp Fiction for sure, I'd say... Smiley

I surely have not been excited about our ranging in the past week-ish... and maybe if the BTC price can survive prior to the close of the weekly candle (which is about 6 hours from this post), then there might be a break out around that time...

hahahahaha  I don't have my hopes up.. even though sometimes we do see BTC price moves  that come at the end of a weekly candle.  Up or down?  who knows?  50/50?  49/51?  51/49?  I have my leanings.. but I have not worked out the exact numbers, so why say anything further at this point?


I just hope that someone buys Celsius for $1+ resuming obligations so we can start a "real" recovery to @dragonvslinux target (which I concur with) of 47-49K.
Pronto, please.
No matter what some of you say, the bear markets are no fun.

I agree mostly.  Bear markets are ONLY fun after they are over, and maybe 1-2 years later.

Then we can reasonably proclaim (perhaps from a somewhat fictional point of view) how much fun that bear market "was".. .way back in the good ole days.
4943  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: July 03, 2022, 05:32:48 PM
So behind all this, does Saylor really think that the DCA strategy will help offset the company's balance sheet a bit, because now microstrategy companies rely heavily on Bitcoin price movements because their finances are invested in bitcoin.
It's still hard to know how Saylor thinks about his investments right now, because what he's done for Bitcoin and microstrategy companies isn't a bad thing. Because he sees the price of Bitcoin which is now very far from ATH so he has the confidence and courage to put the company's money into Bitcoin with the hope of greater profits even though it also has risks. And I think he definitely understands that

Bitcoin does not need to get to ATH for Saylor to be profitable from BTC and/or to even had made a good investment decision by putting money into bitcoin.

Of course, there are direct price considerations in which there may well be goals/preferences that bitcoin holds its value better than the dollar.. and that seems to have really great likelihood - almost like a no brainer.. so if the dollar ends up devaluing 10% per year, then he should at least want Bitcoin to appreciate by that much (as well to include whatever costs that he had incurred to service various bitcoin-related debts that he incurred by accumulating and holding BTC)..  

Another thing is that if his average cost per BTC is $30k.. then that may well be the measuring starting point in terms of figuring out where he would prefer BTC to be in order to be profitable (or even break-even profitable)..   Perhaps $60k by August 2027?  which would be 7 years from the time that he started buying BTC.   I think that there are pretty decent odds that BTC prices will be $60k or greater by August 2027, and of course, you have the right to believe that the odds are not that great and/or you believe that it is not a good bet..  There are a lot of people (including but not limited to no coiners) who either believe that or they feel really uncertain about bitcoin, and a large majority of them have hardly any clue about what bitcoin is and/or how bitcoin is differentiable from other assets and currencies.  

So, it seems that knowing bitcoin's value proposition and also being able to act upon such value proposition is a good thing for Saylor/MSTR and any of the other BTC HODLers and accumulators out there in the world... still a small part of the population.. Oh and by the way, in recent times some of the real real real true BTC believers got reckt as fuck in recent times and that is not because of their belief, but instead their choice to bet like degenerate gamblers - and sure Saylor/MSTR has been truly aggressive in his BTC accumulation strategies, but his level of aggressiveness is not even close to the level of gambling that many of the folks currently getting reckt (and actually some of those getting reckt currently are likely innocent bystanders who just did not realize the amount of risk that they were taking with some of the products that they bough because they were trying to receive yield on their bitcoin.. which truly should not be necessary with an investment like bitcoin. at least not with large portions of your BTC stash)...

The nature of any asymmetric bet to the upside is that the potential is likely to go way beyond the minimum break even price points (such as going beyond $60k in August 2027).  Of course, using leverage changes some of the calculations, too.. in terms of weighing downside versus upside risks and calculating the various expected values based on expected BTC price performance.

MicroStrategy's investments in bitcoin for the long term are confirmed by the senior director of cash operations and investor relations Shirish Jajodia. When asked about what steps the company is planning to take in the current situation (the company's assets in bitcoins fell by $3.4 billion from $5.9 billion to $2.45 billion), he replied that MicroStrategy does not plan to sell bitcoins and that this the position is supported by investors.

https://fortune.com/2022/07/02/microstrategys-bitcoin-holdings-take-a-record-3-4-billion-hit-the-company-says-its-playing-the-long-game/
Well, he bought it at spot so at least he can still convince his investors to keep it for around a year or two more. But he is slowly running out of time if Bitcoin price back to below $10k which put him at loss for all of his DCA (21,454 BTC @$11k and 16,796 BTC @$10k). Can we even call all of his investments in Bitcoin as DCA?

Saylor has already unambiguously proclaimed that his investment timeline for bitcoin is longterm, and several of his bitcoin related debts are structured 4-7 years from the time that they started, so some of those could start coming due in 3-5 years... but still there is no sign that he is even thinking about the matter in 1-2 year time horizons as you Tomohisa seem to consider some kind of relevant calculation that he is not even framing the matter in that kind of way.. which seems to be that you are trying to place some kind of different framework upon the supposed dilemmas that exist for Saylor/MSTR.

And, why is what Saylor/MSTR doing NOT some variation of DCA?  Go ahead explain.  Do you think that since he is using leverage, then that is not DCA?  Do you think that DCA has to come in some kind of specific increment or a some kind of expected amount?

I agree that there may well be something going on beyond DCA, such as buying on dips and lump sum investing, but there is also ongoing regularity to the process (and there is no selling or fucking around with selling), so I have troubles understanding how what Saylor/MSTR has been doing in the past 2 years is very much different from DCA and cannot be referred to DCA in a kind of short-hand descriptive overview of what is mostly happening?
4944  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: July 03, 2022, 04:54:46 PM
El-Salvador has made great attempts to utilize the value of bitcoin, though bitcoin value spot price is low right now and there are a lot of ongoing downward BTC price pressures, but its inherent value will remain unaffected. Once this spree of market fall end,  we will see that bitcoin will rise high and El Salvador will surely reap the benefits. In fact El Salvador is the prime global ambassador for bitcoin

FTFY

I agree with you as amended above - even though I added a bit to the statement
4945  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: July 03, 2022, 07:03:09 AM
So far, the aggregate should be 2.381 BTCs. I’ve checked a bunch of bitcoin treasury sites, and none of them are up-to-date for the country, but my count coincides with that of local media, so I’m pretty confident it’s the figure resulting from the aggregate of all their past purchases.

The do have a government based transparency website, which would be a great place to have this information, taking into account that every purchase is tweeted, and that Salvadorians would likely like to have the detail easily accessible in an official site, as opposed to having people needing to track twitter tolls.

I think need transparency about how many bitcoin have been invested by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele to make public know about how many their assets have been invest in bitcoin, but less strategy because he keep become long term holding with bitcoin although how optimist with bitcoin will reach higher price, not good chance keep hold and El Savador not getting profit in short term. Maybe if try selling bitcoin trough still higher price above $40,000 right now they can invested much money again in bitcoin, but not good ideas what did by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele keep hold for long term and waiting until make new all time high again.

Bitcoin does not need to make all time high for both Bukele and El Salvador to profit from bitcoin, and likely both Bukele and El Salvador continues to profit because of their having had gotten involved in bitcoin, even if you are trying to spin the situation as if it were perilous merely based on bitcoin's currently low price.
4946  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: July 03, 2022, 06:52:43 AM
That's right, it looks like the current loss that Saylor is experiencing if calculated can reach $1.5b from his investment in Bitcoin.
Would he be comfortable with his current position even if some great support came to him like encouragement from Cz.
Never, I was never sure about that convenience. He must be nervous about what he has to do to get bitcoin to give him a return on all his investment so far. Otherwise, he would definitely get into trouble sooner or later. I might think he's going to need a lot of time to get his payback after the loss, so he'll have to be patient for that in the long run.

When I got into bitcoin, I used to characterize my DCA as a font loading DCA strategy.. and so I never really established exactly what I was going to do, even though I tried to stay on a weekly allowance, I would frequently deviate from my allowance limitations either in terms of time or in terms of amount, but I sill considered what I was doing as ongoing DCA.. because there was a kind of consistency in the beginning to continue to try to accumulate BTC.. Some might even call that lump sum investing, even though the practice is ongoing, but then after a stack is accumulated, there still can be feelings of not having enough (until you do start to feel as if you have enough at some later point - which will differ between individuals and likely even differ with institutions in regards to their particulars - including having ongoing incoming cashflow and trying to figure out where to put such ongoing incoming cashflow.
You seem like a very ambitious person to own more bitcoins than you can have. I never thought that a person who has the desire to collect as much bitcoin as he can afford is wrong - it is the right move especially when the money he invests is private property that he is 100% ready afford to lose.

Obviously that's a different thing about Saylor, she might not be ready to lose more because the money she's invested in bitcoin so far isn't entirely hers. I don't know how he sorts out the sources of funds he uses to buy bitcoin so that his company's balance sheet isn't compromised, but he'd definitely be in trouble if his shareholders felt wronged by Saylor's investment decisions in bitcoin.

It seems to me that you might need to read this thread a bit better in terms of actually attempting to understand what Saylor is doing and including understanding what I had posted in terms of my own situation.

You make it sound as if Saylor is about to have some kind of an  emergency... which is not the case. Saylor has already indicated that he has holds enough bitcoin that are unencumbered to cover his various positions down into the $3ks (just like DU18 mentioned), and even if BTC goes into the $3ks that would not mean that he is going to get liquidated because he has other things that he could do. including that the company has other assets beside bitcoin.. he is not in any kind of a panic situation - as you seem to be implying.

Regarding his disclosure to the public (since he is running a public company), it seems that he has bent over backwards to disclose and to over-disclose and even give shareholders notice regarding changes in the company's choices to take bitcoin onto its reserves in August 2020.  Sure minority shareholders can sue, but  they are likely going to have a lot of difficulties coming anywhere close to have a case that will not get dismissed under summary judgement or some other cursory dismissal because there is no evidence that Saylor did anything wrong, even if you and some members are proclaiming that he is being reckless blah blah blah.. but he already said that was what he was going to do.. he does not have further obligations, and if they are going to get anywhere they are going to need to show more evidence than the fact that the BTC price has been coming down and whining about it... whining does not win those kinds of cases, you have to show pretty damned reckless or deceitful conduct more than the baloney superficial whining that you and some other forum members have been postulating to be sufficiently adequate in order to not get laughed out of the court,... even if they could find an attorney to file such a lame and likely baseless (absent way better evidence of wrongdoing) claim in the first place..
4947  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: July 02, 2022, 04:17:47 PM
Saylor is a tough guy he has deeper abilities and knowledge than the few people who criticize his policies.
I believe this extreme market situation will pass quickly, Nayibbukele and Saylor will be the stars when the bull market comes.
Not everything you say is true because he just seems like someone who only buys as much as he can afford instead of having a DCA strategy or something. See how to buy so far, you will know some of his investment habits in bitcoin based on the image below.

I can probably say that his strategy and policy in making the decision to buy is still no better than that of most non-institutional investors. So don't always assume that a financially powerful investor like Saylor is better than you and most other people.


Buying whatever the BTC price does seem to still serve as a kind of DCA strategy.

Some had erroneously been suggesting that Saylor buys the dip or tries to buy the dip, and your linked-graph seems to disprove those kinds of assertions regarding what Saylor/MSTR has been doing with his ongoing and somewhat irregularly timed BTC buys (which I would argue can be characterized as a kind of DCA)... DCA could also be characterized as a specific time interval and a specific amount, but I doubt that either of those are really prerequisites for characterizing ongoing buys (even if irregular in amount and time interval) to still serve as a kind of ongoing DCAing strategy. 

When I got into bitcoin, I used to characterize my DCA as a font loading DCA strategy.. and so I never really established exactly what I was going to do, even though I tried to stay on a weekly allowance, I would frequently deviate from my allowance limitations either in terms of time or in terms of amount, but I sill considered what I was doing as ongoing DCA.. because there was a kind of consistency in the beginning to continue to try to accumulate BTC.. Some might even call that lump sum investing, even though the practice is ongoing, but then after a stack is accumulated, there still can be feelings of not having enough (until you do start to feel as if you have enough at some later point - which will differ between individuals and likely even differ with institutions in regards to their particulars - including having ongoing incoming cashflow and trying to figure out where to put such ongoing incoming cashflow.
4948  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: July 02, 2022, 04:03:11 PM

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele is quite strong and a hard believer of bitcoin. From his tweets and activities relative to bitcoin we can understand. Earlier he gave a small advice to the common people on the price decline of bitcoin as an opportunity to invest and never look upon the charts and get worried. With the present purchase of more 80BTC the reserve gets changed to 2381BTC

But his trend is rather strange, the lower the price of bitcoin, the fewer coins he buys. ) Perhaps there is not much free money now, as one would like, because crisis came, but on the other hand, perhaps he simply does not buy much because he is waiting for a further fall in prices. After all, when the market grows you expect growth, and when it falls, you expect a further fall, such a psychology.

It seems to me that the phenomena of buying less as the BTC price goes down exists in a lot of goods/assets.  It seems to be some kind of variation of the wealth-effect.. in which people buy more as a good/asset goes up and less as it goes down.

And, surely I doubt that the "wealth-effect" is merely psychological, because the HODLer does actually have more money as the price goes up.. and does actually have less money as the price goes down.

I did the something similar in bitcoin in 2014/2015 as the BTC price went down through 2014, I kept buying on the way down, but not only did I run out of money, at some point, I started to run out of confidence too regarding how long any bounce is going to take (or if it will even happen)... a gruelling effect (mentally and financially as the price is going down).  

One thing is to just HODL without selling on the way down (so that is an accomplishment - so long as the price goes back up at some point soon enough before you die or get reckt), and then another thing is to take that whole practice to another level in terms of buying on the way down - even if the amount bought is less - when no bounce comes, there is an ever pestering sound "why did you buy now?", and "why not wait for lower prices?" and "do you think that there is going to be a bounce, crazy?".  

One redeeming aspect for anyone having ongoing and incoming cashflow (which seems to be the case with El Salvador - coming also from BTC-related activities in the country) is that the ongoing buying (even at low prices) ends up serving as a kind of reluctant and worrisome form of DCA (that can also be characterized as buying on dip.. but buying on dip with less enthusiasm as compared with buying on dips when the BTC price is higher.. and regular UPpity bounces).  If the incoming cashflow dries up, that's another question (would likely cause more reluctance to continue to buy).

Edited to fix some wording and make some ideas more clear
4949  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: [General] Bitcoin Wallets - Which, what, why? on: July 01, 2022, 07:25:59 AM
"Wasabi is an open-source, non-custodial, privacy-focused Bitcoin wallet
This is outdated. Wasabi is no longer privacy-focused. Implementing CoinJoin doesn't mean it focuses on privacy preservation for if it did, it wouldn't become pro-censorship, cooperate with chain analysis companies nor blacklist certain inputs from being mixed. The hardcoded coordinator does these things now more.

So I would remove it from "Desktop Wallets" and add it on "Not Recommended or outdated Wallets":
Not recommended or outdated Wallets
These wallets are either not-recommended for some reason or outdated. You should not use them! Please note that here we only list wallets that were previously on the list, or were suggested to be included by others. This does not include ALL wallets that exist and are not recommended. Wallets that are strongly not recommended:
  • Copay, Bitpay, Blockchain.info, BTC.com — untrustworthy, misleading customers, high fees, lacking implementation.
  • Mycelium — iOS app has been abandoned. Mycelium team was involved in various unethical scandals, e.g. raising money from ICOs, partying with the collected money and more.
  • Multibit — This wallet is discontinued: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2293714.0.
  • Coinbase, Freewallet — Custodial wallets. Freewallet has also many scam accusations against it.
  • Ledger HW.1, Ledger Unplugged — Discontinued hardware wallets.
  • Bitfi - John McAffee's "unhackable" hardware wallet, named also as “the world’s first unhackable device”. Besides McAffee's notorious lack of ethics and besides the admitted vulnerabilities of this product, McAffee offered in 2018 a 100.000$ bounty (raised afterwards to 250.000$) to anyone able to hack the hardware wallet. One week later, a 15 years old teen cracked the wallet and launched Doom on it, but he never received a dime from McAffee.
  • Coinomi — Initially open source, then changed again to closed source. Had controversial situations in the past. More information can be found here.
  • Trust Wallet — Mislead users that it was open source (only iOS app was). Later both versions of the wallet became closed source. They have not provided a reasonable explanation for this. More information can be found here, and here.
  • Exodus — high fees (not customizable), security flaws, sync problems.
  • Wasabi — misleading assertions, cooperation with companies that analyze the chain trying to make us treat bitcoin as non-fungible, blacklisting unknown inputs from being mixed arbitrarily.

How do you do  accomplish your suggested changes with Op owner (Lauda) gone?  Do you petition theymos to assign this thread a new owner (which is surely possible, but would theymos do it?)?  Or maybe the thread needs to be locked and a new thread created?
4950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 07:17:54 AM
...and I am so “foolish”, I lack faith that the previous cycle top can never, ever be revisited—let alone broken. <jay>Roll EyesRoll EyesRoll Eyes</jay>

Yes.. I agree.

You are foolish and/or you have foolish tendencies.

 So, let’s see how much Jay appreciates my allegorical gold-market theory that Bitcoin is fine.  Good as gold.

Not appreciated.  Been there; done that.

[edited out]

... I will pretty much just point out that you are deeply ensconced in a Reality Distortion Field.  New ideas are needed. 

Have I ever proclaimed to be a bastion of the flow of new and effervescent ideas?

I have them.  Thank me for being bullish while others are discussing a death spiral, instead of flipping off at me over nonsense.

That's strange.  Why would I want to discourage ideas - unless they happen to be detached from reality in the sense of lacking in logic and/or facts to reach bad conclusions?

I am sure your theories are fine in that regard though, right?  Why wouldn't they be?  They are coming from uie-pooie, who surely would theoretically be amongst the top 100 smartest people in the room (and if top 100 fails, then surely top 200, no?), no matter which room we were to choose (or happen to be in), no?

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):
In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

Seems to me that there is something fundamentally wrong (or off) with using gold as a comparison when we are talking about an emergent asset class versus a 2,000 year old asset class..
4951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 06:17:09 AM
LISSENUP BUDDY you have no idea of the ancient, evil, cursed hardware we might stick you in.

these kinds of posts do not reflect well upon you.



The mining bear for a 7 cent paid off farm with all s17's is at wait for it:

15k


math as follows

2kwatts x 24 = 48 kwatts a day round to 50

50 x 0.07 = $3.50 power cost


50 x 0.083 = $4.15 gross profit  at 19k

net of 4.15-3.50= 65 cents a day profit.

but at 15k

15/19= .7895 x 4.15= 3.27631 that is a 22 cents lost for a 7 cent miner with all s17's paid off.

7 cent is based on 6 cent power and building labor dead gear = 1 penny more.

this means we did not go bear for a miner. with 6+1 = 7 cent cost.

I am at lower power than that.

13k would be 13/19= .6842 x 4.15 = 2.839 in earnings my power cost is 4 cents + 1 = 5 cents so 5 x 50 = 2.50

2.839- 2.50 = 33 or 34 cent profit on my s17's

So for well setup miners we are not fully bear.

I could see 15-17 easy peasy in the next month and if we get there we need to stay there 2 diff jumps to fully shake most miners

I would be okay as low as 13k after that I would be mining at a loss.

For now I am ready to buy if we go to:

17
16
15
14
13
12?

You don't have any loans or leverage in your calculations?  

Some of the miners who got fucked or are about to get fucked are the ones who played their finances really BIG in terms of the amount of leverage that they were using to buy new equipment, hold rather than sell bitcoin and maybe expanding their operations faster than they should have reasonably expected to have been able to do.. which in some sense relied upon BTC prices either staying flat (no loer than $30ks) or going up.. and surely were not sufficiently prepared for BTC price to go down.. maybe even some of them starting to suffer pretty severely once BT prices got below $25k or so.

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?

Good, and you?

Hey fellas. Not too bad, all things considered. Was away for awhile. Had a few drinks, saw a few things...

I believe what the current situation boils down to is:

There's a lot of uncertainty right now but the one thing I'm sure of is the fundamentals of what we believe in haven't changed.

The only thing that has changed is macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin has only ever lived in a bull stonk market until now. So is this a broader correction or something deeper? Let's hope its the former.

Well we have macroeconomic conditions, true.. but we also have a lot of risky and highly leveraged players contributing to some of the cascading downity pressures in recent times (even more so as of May-ish), no?  

In other words, it is not just macroeconomic conditions that put us in our current place of ongoing downity pressures.  Some other folk believe that we are just in a normal cycle.. I have my doubts, but the normal cycle theory is not without some possible validity.. including that the trend is your friend, and once momentum is going down, the bearwhales are going to push it down as far as they can and for as long as they can including but not limited to playing whatever dirty tricks that they are able to pull out of their hats (if they wear hats like "we" do?).

 Oh my gawd, JayJuanGee is expecting sub-$1k prices!  Panic!  SELL!  mindrust!)

Not expecting.

Waiting for.

 Tongue

The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

The best plan is to NOT have a plan.

Is that the Biodom way?

or did you steal that plan from someone else?

#justasking.


It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.

I don't disagree with you, but I doubt it was preordained or anythng like that.  You must have been reading Torque's playbook to come up with that idea.    

Stop reading the playbooks of other members.  !!!!

 Angry Angry Angry Angry


It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.

I cannot disagree with you about that.  I am considering some additional changes to my own asset/cash reorganizing efforts.. that includes (or will be mostly focused on) non-bitcoin assets, too.  It may take me a couple of weeks for me to work it out, and I might disclose some aspects of it later, because even though it does not immediately involve bitcoin, it is likely to have some down the road effects on bitcoin due to changes in some of my cashflow thjat would run into the future and then have a kind of cumulative effect.


I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".

Oh, well, here goes nothing.

Gosh.. you (Biodom) have pretty narrow preference areas in the world.. or at least you are arguably selective.. so ultimately nothing wrong with that, even though I thought that the world was a wee bit moar bigger than the "possible" second passport areas that you are suggesting to be  potentially suitable for you.. but for sure each of us has our preferences and inclinations too.
4952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 05:36:19 AM
Not trolling in the slightest


Riiiiggghhht


yeah... rrriiigggghhhtt

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.
Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,800 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife? Undecided


DCA in downtrend on steroids

More or less that is how buying on the dip and/or DCA is supposed to be done. 

About a day and a half ago, I wrote out a pretty detailed responsive post on the topic of Saylor's most recent buy that was a bit critical of Saylor in regards to his having had not really been buying on the dips (lack of price sensitivity), but largely agreeing with his ability to exercise discretion and work out these matters for himself (and his company), if anyone is interested to read what I wrote. 

I am not even trying to imply that Saylor is not smart.. but sometimes BTC price movements can end up putting some of us in very similar/comparable situations and it is a matter of quantity of money even though we might end up in similar places in terms of percentages.  Interesting for sure, and so difficult to know while we are going through these matters regarding how long the negative parts will last or how far DOWNity it will go.

Can humble the best and the BIGGEST of players, and surely we are also finding out how some pretty damned BIG ASS players (not referring to Saylor) have been really humbled when they were being sneaky about NOT having the BTC that they claimed that they had.. Playing with customer funds and also misleading customers in  terms of the strength of how their BTC was "earning yield" through implicitly could business practices (for sure there is no evidence to even implicate Saylor in playing those kinds of extreme (and likely illegal/fraud) games).

One might be able to buy under 10K once more, who knows.

I am suffering a lot of doubts about this possibility.

.... we will go up properly beyond 50K and beyond 100K, but it will probably be 1 or 2 years from now I think.

I have a lot of doubts about this timeline too...

but the more I think about it is truly we have to see the bottom first.. and then we have to recover.. so yeah.. part 1 and part 2... Hardly could presume less than 6 months.. even a April 2019 scenario took 5 months to reverse and then 3 months to raise.. and we ONLY got about a 3.5x raise from the jump off (I mean up) base.. .. so 8 months minimum to reach $50k seems reasonable... at the same time, I get the sense (from the last time that I checked with him) that King Daddy does not like limits and does not like being reasonable, either.
4953  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: July 01, 2022, 05:17:23 AM
Well im not following so much the MicroStrategy thing but.

I see a lot of you share the balance sheet and its ok but.... for me that says nothing. If the companie doesnt use that funds for keep making the companie runs its not problem. The only problem comes when you use your "saves" for make the companie work.

Its for that we see this new companies like 3 arrows and a lot more going bankrup, because they use the bull market and the "saves in crypto" to expands and growing with a shit business plan.

Lets me explain my point with a traditional one.

We see ever the press saying. "X company lost about 15000 billions of dollar of value" so in our minds we thing this company its near to die. And that can be true or can be a big lie.

Lets take Gazprom for example. They lost a ton of "market value" but the market value affects 0 to the companie if they dont need to claim a "loan" in the market. The only way this affect and can destroy a companie its when you have a open loan and you want to close this one selling your shares on the stock market.  ONLY in that case this affect you directly.

Coming back to the crypto companies and their shit business plan. A ton of companies make this.

1- Taking a loan to expand the companie (seems good)
2- Think and put to cover that loan their saves and their principal active (cryptos), always thinking in bull market so they think can easily close the loan. (imprudent decision)
3- The Bear market comes, your principal active and your flow of cash goes to crash, you cant repay the money you borrowed so you crash.
4- His passive is now more than before because now your companie its much bigger (point 1 you thing for a long run of bull market) and you have less clients so inevitable crash.

So, i dont know if this its the case of Microstrategy if they only continue to accumulate wealth in bitcoin and dont have any open loan or need of cash to close some accounts i dont see any problem.

I hope i explain my point in a good manner. its quite difficult to me to writte in english such a complicated thing.

I don't understand every single point that you made, but it seems to me that you make a lot of good points in terms of the various ways to attempt to assess the value of a company, and sometimes certain indicators (or ways of looking at the company's valuation) can be misleading in terms of whether the shares go up or down in their market price and whether the assets held by the company are valued fairly valued and/or understood and also considering whether they have cashflows and if the cashflows have been affecting by the changes in the market (or current market conditions).

Not everyone is going to assess a company in similar ways, and surely some of the investors will be right and others will be wrong in their assessment. Surely Microstrategy does hold a very unique position in the bitcoin space and even in comparison to a lot of other similar companies, and for sure it is not unreasonable tfor some folks to consider Microstrategy to be a way of investing in bitcoin (or shorting  bitcoin) when they might NOT be able to buy bitcoin directly.. It does seem like it would be a bit redundant if someone were to own bitcoin and also to own MSTR, but there are people who likely do that, too.

This last $10 million appears to have been bought by MSTR extra cashflow, and I am not really sure if MSTR is holding back some of their cash reserves for further dips in the BTC price because there still does remain quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if the BTC price bottom is in or close to being in., so even MSTR and their bitcoin staff (beyond Saylor) might surely assess the BTC market differently from a layperson (or a bitcoin OG), too... but I am not sure if MSTR would be more likely to be correct in their assessment, or not.  They surely are not dummies when it comes to bitcoin or even their continuing to be able to generate decent cashflow/profits from their software business either.
4954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 04:14:07 AM
I am available for parties and weddings

I gotta admit.  I like this part.

 Wink

Tempting me to break Opsec, for sure.

This is the weirdest bear market so far...

I am having fun!  I really am.


same here. the thrill is back for me. not since i started and went through my 1st crash (~90% drop) have i felt like this.

are we toast? have we made a huge mistake? if we crash way hard and crater it big time will it survive?

and just like my 1st "panic" in the 2011 crash one thing stays the same for me: HODL this pig. cuz moon or hole in the ground im in 100%

You guys are sick.

That's why empowering is getting invited to the party, and you two are NOT.

Fun.. .

yeah right.. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Got another piece at 18.8 this time.

Hoping for lower and ready to do multiple buys.

"WE"  do not hope for lower.






Don't you know nuttin?













Yet?


I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Now this guy Wexlike...

He's a great example of what is "fun."**


**not the dropping babies part.
4955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 03:42:48 AM
Gambler’s Fallacy

Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.
I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.


We win by creating an impression in which things are working in bitcoin.. yes, the royal "we" or whatever.. doesn't matter to me., and the details do not matter either.,

We do not need to know the details because we win no matter what as long as the blocks come out and on average the blocks are coming out - about every 10 minutes ... every two weeks the difficulty adjusts in order to shoot for such 10 minutes per block on average time target goal too.

Winner winner chicken dinner.


Technically.....   D_W says


Fuck technically!!!

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or for someone in a hurry transacting a $1 million transaction.. but most people only need to know that bitcoin workie workie works.. and it continues to work... and workie workie, too

When is the next block?  
Approximately 10 minutes.. give or take..

if the next block ends up being 2 minutes or 20 minutes, and even skewed towards two minutes, I (or is it we?) give few shits, I am still going to answer in the same way..  10 minutes dude (no not that dude).. general dude.

If I were betting on when the next block is going to come. I might give some shits.. but I am not, and I am not going to bet, either.. my only bet is that bitcoin works, continues to work and it has been working for more than 13.5 years.  tick tock.. tick tock tick tock.. bitcoin still works, and next block.. amazing!!!!   when's it coming?  I don't know.. but maybe in 10 minutes-ish.  

I am not setting expectations too high, either when I say.. the next block is coming in more or less about approximately 10 minutes.. and if 10 minutes runs again and again and there still is no block, and the person waiting for the block says to me:  "hey dude (no not that dude) I thought that you said the next block will be in 10 minutes..  when is the next block going to come?"   , I will say that the next block should be here in about 10 minutes.

It's a great answer.. when in doubt, just say 10 minutes.. tick tock necxt  block.. been working for 13.5 years and more and I don't expect it to stop.. that's why I have money in it.. I feel good about that... .. .. more or less 10 minutes comes the next block.. it works, and it is amazing.. you should thinking about getting some in case it catches on...

Don’t forget that Bitcoin’s mining algorithm is a giant lottery—and that on the flipside, many Provably Fair crypto-casinos use SHA2 to roll virtual dice.  Waving hands over some important technical differences, it is useful to keep that in mind.

In practice, although they are discrete and not continuous processes, games of chance that pick winners based on a uniform distribution can be usefully modelled as Poisson processes.  Wins accordingly have a statistically “expected” arrival time based on the average of an exponential distribution—just like Bitcoin’s 10-minute target for blocktimes, a targeted average calculated over numerous blocks.

By this model, the “fastest” quartile of wins feels so lucky that it gets gamblers excited—just like how 25% of Bitcoin blocks arrive within 173 seconds.  The median is much faster than the average, which means that fully half of all games feel luckier than they really are.  Tell me, how many times have you exclaimed, “Wow, I am so lucky—the confirmation of my tx was much faster than I expected!”?

You seem to be proving my point.  Underpromise and over deliver.. another great bitcoin feature.


The “slowest” quartile of wins then drains the gamblers’ funds as they keep playing, believing themselves “due” for a win.  Those are the blocks that seem to take forever, as you are awaiting confirmation.  That long tail is long, indeed!

and while they are waiting.. we just keep saying that the block should arrive in 10 minutes.  I hpe that you did not bet on this.  Sucks to be you if you bet on it.

The exponential distribution plays games with your head.  It defies and exploits human intuitions in almost every possible way.  It is a dice site’s best friend.

Maybe some stats textbooks say the same thing.  Maybe not.  I figured this out myself, many moons ago.

* death_wish loves the exponential distribution.

Have fun with all that.  I am just going to continue with the party line. whether it is correct or not.. doesn't matter to me, even though it may well matter to a miner or someone who is working (or betting) in regards to the relevance of those kinds of details.

How did Craig frame the matter?

I forget the details but Peter Rizun asked how long (on average) the next block would be if the last one was n minutes ago and he answered with the 10-n option. That had a lot of CSW supporters illustrate the mental gymnastics they were willing to go through.

For sure, he frequently gets caught in really dumb answers.. an/or lame descriptions about what bitcoin is including the seemingly forced "what I designed" it to do. blah blah blah.... including the pursuit of copy right and intellectual property matters..

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

I'm thinking that a good name for it would be a "mining death spiral."

You heard it here first.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

#justsaying


Hey.. either that is not fair, or you were "reading my mind"... by saying to ur lil selfie:  "what would jjg think, if he were faced with such a question?"

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?

No.


WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.   Roll Eyes   Roll Eyes

WOW!!!!


BBBBBbbbbaaaaaammmmmmmbbbbbb!!!!

That's how it works?

No wonder you have tendencies to find "bargains" in so many unique places.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

Who would-a-thunk?
4956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 02:41:42 AM
I know that there are some members who really have personal issues with me, and sometimes they will harbor those resentments for a long time, even for years, and then come out with a bunch of anger posts... hahahaha it is kind of funny how some folks can hate certain peeps on the interwebs so much.

With your way of seeing things, on the flipside, you can never have some of the positive life experiences that I have (very rarely) had in cypherspace.  If you are too detached, you don’t much care either way—you can never make much of a deep connection with anyone.  I am not only saying this now:  I have had that thought about you before, years ago.  It hit me when you declared somewhere, with a distinctly absolutist attitude, that “nobody gives a shit about you on the Internet” (here paraphrasing from recollection).  Well, it is true in the overwhelming majority of cases.  But with your outlook, you will miss the one-in-a-million outliers.

Both you and I likely realize that none of these relationship matters are completely absolute - because it is the case that the longer that we are around can contribute towards us being more or less comfortable with other members - maybe certain members more than others.

There are also statements that are made in response to other statements - so if I call you "a big fucking whiner,"  there is likely a context, and some relationship might be healable through times, and other relations might continue to harbor reservations and/or resentments.

We do not need to get into any exact names, but if you  or I were provided with a private and confidential survey in regards to various comforts that we have with a list of 20 members, and we were told to rate on a scale of 1-10 in regards, to various levels of trustworthiness, or sharing of confidentialities, or whether we would pay them money, have them hold money (like a loan), give them certain responsibilities , then each member should receive  a different result with some higher on the scale than others in certain categories.. and also some members we might feel tht we do not have enough information to rank them in certain categories, but if we had a written interview or a telephonic interview or a video interview or an in person interview, or if we had them work for us for 90 days (historically an acceptable employment probationary period) , then we might be able to arrive at better determinations regarding our trust/confidence levels in regards to that person trustworthiness, reliability and/or whether we might want to enter into a relationship and what kinds or is it it just an arms-length relationship rather than more intimate.

Regarding  missing a 1/1 million opportunity, sure it happens, but we still have to screen matters, and sometimes we also have to cut our losses and not take any further chances because rightly or wrongly we may well find our time and energies is not being used well... does not mean we are correct, but we have to make choices that are not always easy.. and realize that sometimes we cannot go back on our choices..

If someone were to offer me a billion dollars right now to give up some of those positive life experiences, I would tell him to take his money straight to hell.  That is not hyperbole.  Some things are priceless.

I know, also, that sometimes people do things differently from what they say that they would do when there is actual concrete offer on the table rather than exploring a hypothetical that may well never be presented.. .yet we are likely more prepared to think through the matter if we had thought about the possibilities of various offers that could be made prior to the offer actually being made, so we are in a much better place if we have prepared in order to be ready, willing and able to follow through when opportunities are presented.  In that regard, if opportunities are presented, but we have not sufficiently planned/nor prepared, then we might ONLY have one or two of the three (ready, willing and able), which is the same as not having had prepared to be able to take advantage of such opportunities when they are presented.

On the negative side, I dislike permitting those who are beneath me drain my time and energy on nonsense.  Whether IRL or online, I oughtn’t trouble myself too much to swat a troublesome fly, if it is inconvenient.  Most of all, I must mind the proverb about wrestling with a pig.  It is best to take the high road, to focus on important things, to comport oneself with poise and professionalism.  But I never forgive, if someone seriously crosses me—never forgive, never forget.  Despicable characters tend eventually to lay out enough proverbial rope to hang themselves, anyway.

I don't really disagree with you, but I still consider the idea of "never say never".. .and also sometimes I might even be hesitant to think about "never", but worse to say "never" and then not really mean never.. . .but really mean "almost never."... which practically could have the same results... some kinds of conduct seem to be BIGGER deal-breakers than others... sometimes first impressions are wrong, too... such as "oh, you are not as bad a guy/gal as I had initially thought."
4957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 08:16:45 AM
I am Warren Buffet’s secret Bitcoin Forum account.

I know Warren Buffet, and you are no Warren Buffet.   Tongue


[No-substance shitpost, beneath substantive reply.]

Good job losing the respect I’ve held for you for more years than you realize.

Well that sucks.  

You are one of the savvier ones here, when you are not being deliberately obtuse.

You mean there is still a chance?  One of my friends asked that same question, once (in a movie).

Since you have never crossed the line of all-out attacking me personally, I can simply pass by your evasiveness, misdirection, and occasional pointless insults as hereby.  It won’t work with me—not even when you sometimes attempt to win by bluster and bombast what you cannot by ratiocination.

I did not realize that I was trying to win.

I do prefer to win in regards to the creation of the parameters of my own interactions and how or if I choose to respond to ideas presented in these thread posts including but not limited to exercising my own discretion and independent judgment in respect to what I consider to be relevant, interesting or important considerations.
4958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 07:58:21 AM
I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

And just as a reminder, this is another piece of essential Bitcoin information that CSW got wrong.

I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

How did Craig frame the matter?

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000.. just like back in the good ole days.. but this time will be different for yours truly.  This time, I will buy mining equipment and also BTC (at the same time), too.  I am going to start mining even though I have no fucking clues.. but it will be profitable if I wait and I will learn, too.  I'm a fast learner if I put my mind to it, especially for sub $1k BTC prices,.  Cannot go wrong with that... It's only about a 95% drop from here, and historically speaking BTC has had 95% price drops before, and this time is special too.. Look at the macro circumstances, there are  alot of problems in the world, and bitcoin tends to drop more than everything else, at least in the short term, so $1k is almost guaranteed.. inevitable..

Cut looses your gooses, people!!!!.


How we all doing?

Good, and you?

I am going to buy miners and BTC once we reach sub $1k..
4959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 07:32:50 AM
Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Jay, please stop misinterpreting my words to the opposite of what I said—even as you quote me!  (Highlighting has been added to internal quote above.)
There's no misinterpretation. I responded, and my response speaks for itself..

What I said, very obviously, is that I admittedly go too far.  I am so paranoid of coming off like a beggar that I shoot myself in the foot.  I have been reconsidering that.  Seriously.  WTF am I doing to myself?

I don't know.  Each of us chooses how to interact in the world, and sometimes we might feel that there is a need to change some of our own self-imposed limitations - and other times we might feel that we need to place limitations.

I had an interaction with a relative of mine the other day, and  I was telling that relative about several interactions that I had with someone that I had perceived as a beggar and even someone who I considered to NOT be respectful of boundaries.  I said that the beggar had asked me for x, y z, a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h and j, and I gave a and e, but I regretted giving anything because that beggar had done several things to create such a bad situation, and I did not feel that it was my responsibility to be paying attention to so many asks of such person.  I said that the continuous begging was wearing me out, and I was largely just ignoring the asks (the latest of which had been sent to me by text messages from the beggar), and I was about ready to explode at some point.. The beggar had been engaging in conduct that I felt was forcing me into a position to be mean to the beggar, and I had actually already exploded one time previously, and I said that I feel that the beggar should not be asking me for so many thing.  

My relative was considering contacting the beggar and giving some things that I refused to acknowledge, and I told the relative to do whatever.. I am not doing anything.  So it is quite true that reasonable people come to differing conclusions in regards to how to treat situations, and I do not claim to have all the answers or even to know about some of the ways that I might need to change some of my ways of interacting.. or even how I might consider certain characteristics that I consider to be important.

 I damn well know that there is a world of difference between honour and masochistic self-abnegation.  But I self-conscious about it when I fear being perceived as needy; if nobody knew my financial circumstance right now, then I would already have a tip address.  I have put out tip addresses before, which I deleted when I leaked info that I thought may give the perception of my being needy.

Sure there are differences between what might trigger boundaries on the interwebs versus boundaries in person, and I had made some interactions with folks in regards to various virtual assistant work, and it is not always easy to figure out which duties might be farmed out and show much trust to give with some personal information.  I know that some virtual assistance relationships have had meeting in person components, but surely there are some that only involve phone calls and video interactions and do not go as far as having actual physical meetings/interviews.  

One time, I had an in-person personal assistant working on attempting to set up parameters for finding and hiring a virtual assistant (and getting that assistant remotely), but I could not get my in-person assistant to do certain things.. so it was like a BIG waste of time to go through that process - even though I have some of the notes related to some of the efforts that we were making in going through the process.

As you probably know, a Core developer on staff moderating the technical forum (formerly knightdk) has had a tip address in his signature for years.  I respect him highly.  theymos has a tip address in his signature.  Do you suppose that I am accusing them of begging?  If not, then why do you suppose that I “speculate” that you are begging?  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes back atcha.

I asked you a question (or raised some issues), and you answered and clarified.  There seems to be hardly any reason to take any of my reading or even my attempt to frame the matter as if it is personal, which seems to be your default route... and even if there were some reasonable ways to take it personally, why get worked up about it and escalate?..  You do what you want.. and sure maybe the taking matters personally will start to subside, but I have my doubts..and maybe when you take matters personal then it triggers folks to make personal digg statements, too?

By the way, there have been a few times in which I had taken some statements on the interwebs personally, and surely sometimes such statements are personal.. but still reacting to such statements in emotional ways is not usually a good approach (I am not talking about how it looks, but I am talking about actually losing composure).. and I would be careful to interpret a few cuss words here and there as if the person has lost composure..

I know that there are some members who really have personal issues with me, and sometimes they will harbor those resentments for a long time, even for years, and then come out with a bunch of anger posts... hahahaha it is kind of funny how some folks can hate certain peeps on the interwebs so much.


Re funding for Core development:

The major substance of your post proposes what, in substance, would be an endowment.  It is a good idea.  However, it would require much more sophistication (and accordingly, higher administrative overhead).  I had been thinking more simply:  Raise money, spend it.  I will think about this further.  I do not foresee immediate action on it, anyway.  Besides any other questions, jumping into such a project in a bear market with no advance planning is not a very good approach; I’m not the one saying so.

Yeah, we might have been talking past each other a wee bit, and I have spent some time grappling with some of my own considerations about how to set up such a fund, and I was thinking about starting a thread on the topic - or alternatively to post in my already existing thread.. but it might well be a topic that would be better suited for its own thread.

I was initially considering setting up the thread with a hypothesis of having a fund that would be initially seeded with 100 BTC, so the ideas would relate to my ideas about how much can be used from the funds on a regular basis to support the administration of the funds and also the sending out of funds to target projects.  Of course there might be some flexibility in the amount of funds that would be in the seed round and if the fund might be able to able to receive additional funds from private sources or .. but the original assumption is that the fund is established by a private donor or a closed group that already grants full plenary authority to the fund administrator whether hypothetically that administrator would be me or whether it could (or should) be contracted out.  

My initial thoughts about any extra funds that would be accepted would involve NDAs and even legal disclaimers and granting full discretion to the fund administrator regarding the distribution of donations, so of course, when we get into those kinds of possible receipt of outside funds, it is probably better to establish a track record and a set of clear distribution standards, criteria (and practices) first, as we already referred to some of these ideas.  I have been thinking about variations of this for more than 2 years, so it is not like I have really gotten into the nitty gritty details of working towards carrying it out.

Some of your guesses about numbers are pretty good, though I don’t want to say more about that right now.

Well, let me change the numbers a wee bit, and if a fund were to have 100 BTC as it's initially starting out principle, so how much it can spend per month may well depend on the valuation of the 100 BTC, and I had surely been considering using the 200-week moving average as the valuation of the funds, which surely is problematic currently because BTC's spot price is currently under the 200-week moving average.
 yet it is possible that the fund could withdraw into cash a year in advance, and/or even have withdrawal parameters on a quarterly basis that are measured in terms of how far above or below the spot price is from the 200-week moving average.  It is possible that if the BTC price is below the 200-week moving average then the fund is not allowed to cash out any BTC into dollars during that time.  

Of course, it is quite possible and even likely that some of the contracts would stipulate that if payments are in BTC (and some (and maybe all) would be required to be in BTC), then there might be ways to still pay out in BTC when the spot price is under the 200-week moving average with an understanding that the valuation of how much is paid is based on the 200-week moving average, and the fund is not allowed to pay based on dollar valuations that are lower than the 200-week  moving average.  Accordingly the recipient gets the same amount of BTC as if the BTC price were at the 200-week moving average, but it results in a lower dollar value based on spot price because the fund is not allowed to go below the 200-week moving average when calculating how much to pay to target recipients (fund administrators and any administrative assistants, too).

I will think this over; I may reply further if/when it makes sense to write a long post on this particular topic.  Whether to bounce around more ideas in a public discussion, or beyond that.

Fair enough.

Something else that’s been on my mind:

I like what e.g. MIT-DCI does with Wladimir.  Per-project grants are good and necessary; paying someone’s full-time salary gets a different type of long-term result.

I observe that, to the best of my knowledge, there is a lack of sufficient opportunities for strongly anonymous/pseudonymous developers.  Satoshi himself would be unable to obtain the position that Wladimir has with MIT-DCI.  But a part of Bitcoin’s resilience is the active contribution of parties who cannot be identified IRL—to be blunt, those who can merrily ignore any frivolous lawsuits from Craig Wright, who are immune to public harassment, etc., etc.  This is not merely a theoretical concern—not cypherpunk “paranoia”!

I think that the fund can be comfortable with the developer,  so there might be some uncertainties regarding how comfortable the fund might feel about funding developers who fit that definition.  I thought that square had one developer who was ONLY a pseudonym.. and surely it helps if precedent is set or some kind of comfortable contract language (or lack of contract) that might be comfortable for the fund... and maybe the fund might not be comfortable having all of its developer funds to be distributed in that kind of way, and might even impose a restriction on itself in terms of funding 50% of all developer funds to be able to be used within such category... probably some legal consultation would be beneficial depending how the fund is set up and in which state or country it has a license or whatever set up it might have. and there might be some se t ups(arrangements) that fall into special categories in terms of the funding that the fund chooses to distribute within its budget)

Given that I am strongly pseudonymous, and I never intend to be otherwise, it is interesting to me that there is probably a niche with unmet needs for funding developers who refuse to be doxed for any reason whatsoever.  “By their PGP-signed commits shall ye know them.”

For sure there are reasons to have those kinds of set ups and even to figure out ways to fund those kinds of set ups, and surely some of the discussions of the details of how to set them up might be less valuable to carryout in a public thread or even through private messages but  instead through more secure communication channels that hopefully are sufficiently comfortable (and secure) for everyone including funding sources and funded persons/pseudonyms... surely not easy.. and surely some of the relationships are made at conferences or private introductions and surely some pseudonyms don't want to be met, but they still need to be comfortable enough for the funding sources to feel it is a good ideas to fund in such an arrangement.
4960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 05:44:33 AM
At that, sputtering cursewords in impotent rage is not a good look for you, Jay.  Especially not when anyone can review the thread, and see that I raised gold as an analogy to teach a lesson to all of the weak-hands who are scared about Bitcoin’s little dip here.  You have been tilting at me like Quixote sicced on a windmill, when I have been pointing to gold’s worst historical bear market to tell the scared people that Bitcoin is fine.  At this point, your irrational reaction to my Bitcoin-is-fine thesis is beyond baffling, and far into the realm of boring.

I am glad that you are here to save us and to let us know that "bitcoin is fine."

Thanks for that.  You are so



helpful.


 Wink





Where would we be without uie-pooie? 


It's a rhetorical question no need to actually answer it.     

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


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