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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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7/28 - 11 (11.5%)
8/4 - 16 (16.7%)
8/11 - 7 (7.3%)
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8/25 - 7 (7.3%)
After August - 49 (51%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26449792 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 30, 2022, 04:08:21 AM
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Grayscale has already sued (backed by solicitor general Don Verrilli, one of the leading appellate litigators) the SEC. Similar what happened in Canada few years ago, 3iQ recieved world's first Bitcoin ETF afterwards.

Not saying it will be the same in the U.S.

Meanwhile, another new spot Bitcoin ETF has launched in Switzerland yesturday..
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June 30, 2022, 04:18:46 AM
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I notice that ChartBuddy missed some recent updates.  Is the problem on Buddy’s end?  Or did Buddy experience a timeout as I sometimes have, with the inferior robot* being too dumb to retry? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I did recently add some retry code to Chartbuddy. He'll try three times over the course of three minutes then give up. The problem could be anywhere along the line. I believe I added some error debugging too so I should probably take a look. I want to rework the code anyway as I think I should be able to get a lot closer to "on the hour". Currently, it's the time taken to generate and upload the chart then the time to log in then a wait for reasons I don't know but it fails if I don't then whatever it actually takes to make the post.
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June 30, 2022, 04:20:17 AM

“Slip up”?  With what, you retarded wannabe Sherlock Holmes?  Ever since May, I have been quite openly making numerous statements that show a long, deep, and detailed knowledge of this forum.  You only just noticed that now? Roll Eyes

Are you Jorge Stolfi?































 Grin
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June 30, 2022, 04:32:27 AM

Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

So true. I'd be neutral right now about a return to $25K-$30K vs a drop to $10K-$15K, but there is too much confidence that price is going to already drop significantly lower. Baring in mind since 2021 approximately 50% of holders were new to Bitcoin in the past year, so a lot of the twitter sentiment comes from newbies to put it simply. That fact that by comparison WO readers think the bottom is in is no surprise to me.

Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.

JMHO.



I forgot this graph only shows the dots each month, as opposed to each week. If anything it'd make more sense to look at the 50 Month MA (~217 Weeks) if we're looking at monthly changes. Also because Bitcoin has never closed below this Monthly MA, as opposed to 200WMA which price has closed below numerous times (repeatedly in 2015 for example). Personally I'm keeping my eye on the 50 Month MA @ $21.3K as price has already flirted with this level a few times in the past week. I also don't think a close below it would be catastrophic, as long as it's within around 5% of it, ie >$20K. Only one more day to go though...

Surely one of the problems with opening and closing candles/dots is still that they are somewhat random (or connected with a thing in the world that people like to watch), and you are referring to closings that are based on monthlies within a calendar year reference point, and why go based on monthly calendar year rather than some random 30-day period or maybe the middle of the month or 2/3 into the month or some other way to measure "monthly" opening and closing without connecting it with calendar year monthly cut offs?

But I never sock-puppet.  Those who keep throwing around the term “sock-puppet” do not know what it means.

I like to aspire to use the term sock-puppet merely because I can appreciate that it annoys you...  .. and there is nothing unfairly inaccurate about the use of a term that another peep does not like even if you personally want to proclaim something like: "technically a sock puppet is x, y and z, but I am not x, y and z.  I am x, y and k (and specifically I am not z)"  which to me such posture is like a so fucking what?.. even if you might be "technically" correct.



In other news....... I now see it increasingly more likely that this war in Ukraine, escalates... and moves beyond Ukraine's borders..... which is not good news for anyone.



Russia/Ukraine is not the only consideration, but it is one which I am taking into account, when I am considering upping sticks and getting the hell away from London/UK/Europe for a while....I mean, it was part of my plan already to get away for a bit... but, now.... I am seriously considering making it happen much faster.


I want as little part of it as possible.... that goes for the Russians, the Ukrainians, the NATO countries, the USA the lot of it.  It is all fucking psychos in suits, playing psycho games, and they could not give flying fuck about me....not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the EU and not the UK, and I do not expect them to care about lil ol me and my family and loved ones, that is MY job.


Fuck the lot of them.... I want to get as far away as possible from the whole thing, as far as that is possible in this day and age.

Currently, the world is pretty damned interconnected, and I cannot imagine such interconnectedness diminish in large ways.. even though sure there are somewhat edge-case scenarios for such. 

It seems to me that you are likely going to have difficulties getting away from dick-swinging macro-political nonsenses completely, but I do agree that there are probably some parts of the world that are more self-sovereign and try to stay some what neutral and detached.. even though the future remains a wee bit uncertain in terms of allegiances in the future and if you still might get sucked back into hearing about it, taking sides or in other ways being materially affected in various ways.
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June 30, 2022, 04:36:07 AM

I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

And just as a reminder, this is another piece of essential Bitcoin information that CSW got wrong.
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June 30, 2022, 04:36:18 AM

2 wrongs don't make a right.
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June 30, 2022, 04:41:37 AM

2 wrongs don't make a right.

But three lefts often do.

I hedge because there are some diabolical road designers out there.
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June 30, 2022, 04:58:05 AM

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.
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June 30, 2022, 05:01:19 AM


Explanation
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June 30, 2022, 05:02:20 AM

* death_wish smacks Buddy.  (Robot, behave yourself!)

“Slip up”?  With what, you retarded wannabe Sherlock Holmes?  Ever since May, I have been quite openly making numerous statements that show a long, deep, and detailed knowledge of this forum.  You only just noticed that now? Roll Eyes

Are you Jorge Stolfi?

 Grin

In principle, I neither admit nor deny the allegation that I am Jorge Stolfi.  No comment, save to note that it makes almost as much sense as the widespread rumour that I am Warren Buffet’s secret Bitcoin Forum account. Roll Eyes


2 wrongs don't make a right.

But three lefts often do.

I hedge because there are some diabolical road designers out there.

In the worst case, if you take an infinite random walk on a plane, you will return to your origin a.s.

#justsaying ...but cryptically refusing to reveal what I’m just saying, in the sense of offering the answer to an unknown question.

42


I notice that ChartBuddy missed some recent updates.  Is the problem on Buddy’s end?  Or did Buddy experience a timeout as I sometimes have, with the inferior robot* being too dumb to retry? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I did recently add some retry code to Chartbuddy. He'll try three times over the course of three minutes then give up. The problem could be anywhere along the line. I believe I added some error debugging too so I should probably take a look. I want to rework the code anyway as I think I should be able to get a lot closer to "on the hour". Currently, it's the time taken to generate and upload the chart then the time to log in then a wait for reasons I don't know but it fails if I don't then whatever it actually takes to make the post.

Good luck refining Buddy’s reliability.  IMO, price updates add to the thread—even moreso retrospectively than in the present.  Reading older discussions in WO, in periods with no Buddy, necessary context is missing; it is necessary either to remember approximately what the price was, or to look it up from other price history sources.  And the bid/ask depth visualization is appropriate to the Wall Observer.

Not to mention the lulz. Cheesy

* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.
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June 30, 2022, 05:44:33 AM

At that, sputtering cursewords in impotent rage is not a good look for you, Jay.  Especially not when anyone can review the thread, and see that I raised gold as an analogy to teach a lesson to all of the weak-hands who are scared about Bitcoin’s little dip here.  You have been tilting at me like Quixote sicced on a windmill, when I have been pointing to gold’s worst historical bear market to tell the scared people that Bitcoin is fine.  At this point, your irrational reaction to my Bitcoin-is-fine thesis is beyond baffling, and far into the realm of boring.

I am glad that you are here to save us and to let us know that "bitcoin is fine."

Thanks for that.  You are so



helpful.


 Wink





Where would we be without uie-pooie? 


It's a rhetorical question no need to actually answer it.     

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


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June 30, 2022, 06:05:01 AM


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June 30, 2022, 06:29:16 AM

[No-substance shitpost, beneath substantive reply.]

Good job losing the respect I’ve held for you for more years than you realize.

Please be advised that I’ve simply been replying when I think the discussion may be beneficial to an unseen readership.  It is, after all, a major purpose of a public forum.  You sometimes raise good points, which make for a productive back-and-forth dialectic.  You are one of the savvier ones here, when you are not being deliberately obtuse.

Since you have never crossed the line of all-out attacking me personally, I can simply pass by your evasiveness, misdirection, and occasional pointless insults as hereby.  It won’t work with me—not even when you sometimes attempt to win by bluster and bombast what you cannot by ratiocination.
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June 30, 2022, 07:03:27 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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June 30, 2022, 07:32:50 AM

Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Jay, please stop misinterpreting my words to the opposite of what I said—even as you quote me!  (Highlighting has been added to internal quote above.)
There's no misinterpretation. I responded, and my response speaks for itself..

What I said, very obviously, is that I admittedly go too far.  I am so paranoid of coming off like a beggar that I shoot myself in the foot.  I have been reconsidering that.  Seriously.  WTF am I doing to myself?

I don't know.  Each of us chooses how to interact in the world, and sometimes we might feel that there is a need to change some of our own self-imposed limitations - and other times we might feel that we need to place limitations.

I had an interaction with a relative of mine the other day, and  I was telling that relative about several interactions that I had with someone that I had perceived as a beggar and even someone who I considered to NOT be respectful of boundaries.  I said that the beggar had asked me for x, y z, a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h and j, and I gave a and e, but I regretted giving anything because that beggar had done several things to create such a bad situation, and I did not feel that it was my responsibility to be paying attention to so many asks of such person.  I said that the continuous begging was wearing me out, and I was largely just ignoring the asks (the latest of which had been sent to me by text messages from the beggar), and I was about ready to explode at some point.. The beggar had been engaging in conduct that I felt was forcing me into a position to be mean to the beggar, and I had actually already exploded one time previously, and I said that I feel that the beggar should not be asking me for so many thing.  

My relative was considering contacting the beggar and giving some things that I refused to acknowledge, and I told the relative to do whatever.. I am not doing anything.  So it is quite true that reasonable people come to differing conclusions in regards to how to treat situations, and I do not claim to have all the answers or even to know about some of the ways that I might need to change some of my ways of interacting.. or even how I might consider certain characteristics that I consider to be important.

 I damn well know that there is a world of difference between honour and masochistic self-abnegation.  But I self-conscious about it when I fear being perceived as needy; if nobody knew my financial circumstance right now, then I would already have a tip address.  I have put out tip addresses before, which I deleted when I leaked info that I thought may give the perception of my being needy.

Sure there are differences between what might trigger boundaries on the interwebs versus boundaries in person, and I had made some interactions with folks in regards to various virtual assistant work, and it is not always easy to figure out which duties might be farmed out and show much trust to give with some personal information.  I know that some virtual assistance relationships have had meeting in person components, but surely there are some that only involve phone calls and video interactions and do not go as far as having actual physical meetings/interviews.  

One time, I had an in-person personal assistant working on attempting to set up parameters for finding and hiring a virtual assistant (and getting that assistant remotely), but I could not get my in-person assistant to do certain things.. so it was like a BIG waste of time to go through that process - even though I have some of the notes related to some of the efforts that we were making in going through the process.

As you probably know, a Core developer on staff moderating the technical forum (formerly knightdk) has had a tip address in his signature for years.  I respect him highly.  theymos has a tip address in his signature.  Do you suppose that I am accusing them of begging?  If not, then why do you suppose that I “speculate” that you are begging?  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes back atcha.

I asked you a question (or raised some issues), and you answered and clarified.  There seems to be hardly any reason to take any of my reading or even my attempt to frame the matter as if it is personal, which seems to be your default route... and even if there were some reasonable ways to take it personally, why get worked up about it and escalate?..  You do what you want.. and sure maybe the taking matters personally will start to subside, but I have my doubts..and maybe when you take matters personal then it triggers folks to make personal digg statements, too?

By the way, there have been a few times in which I had taken some statements on the interwebs personally, and surely sometimes such statements are personal.. but still reacting to such statements in emotional ways is not usually a good approach (I am not talking about how it looks, but I am talking about actually losing composure).. and I would be careful to interpret a few cuss words here and there as if the person has lost composure..

I know that there are some members who really have personal issues with me, and sometimes they will harbor those resentments for a long time, even for years, and then come out with a bunch of anger posts... hahahaha it is kind of funny how some folks can hate certain peeps on the interwebs so much.


Re funding for Core development:

The major substance of your post proposes what, in substance, would be an endowment.  It is a good idea.  However, it would require much more sophistication (and accordingly, higher administrative overhead).  I had been thinking more simply:  Raise money, spend it.  I will think about this further.  I do not foresee immediate action on it, anyway.  Besides any other questions, jumping into such a project in a bear market with no advance planning is not a very good approach; I’m not the one saying so.

Yeah, we might have been talking past each other a wee bit, and I have spent some time grappling with some of my own considerations about how to set up such a fund, and I was thinking about starting a thread on the topic - or alternatively to post in my already existing thread.. but it might well be a topic that would be better suited for its own thread.

I was initially considering setting up the thread with a hypothesis of having a fund that would be initially seeded with 100 BTC, so the ideas would relate to my ideas about how much can be used from the funds on a regular basis to support the administration of the funds and also the sending out of funds to target projects.  Of course there might be some flexibility in the amount of funds that would be in the seed round and if the fund might be able to able to receive additional funds from private sources or .. but the original assumption is that the fund is established by a private donor or a closed group that already grants full plenary authority to the fund administrator whether hypothetically that administrator would be me or whether it could (or should) be contracted out.  

My initial thoughts about any extra funds that would be accepted would involve NDAs and even legal disclaimers and granting full discretion to the fund administrator regarding the distribution of donations, so of course, when we get into those kinds of possible receipt of outside funds, it is probably better to establish a track record and a set of clear distribution standards, criteria (and practices) first, as we already referred to some of these ideas.  I have been thinking about variations of this for more than 2 years, so it is not like I have really gotten into the nitty gritty details of working towards carrying it out.

Some of your guesses about numbers are pretty good, though I don’t want to say more about that right now.

Well, let me change the numbers a wee bit, and if a fund were to have 100 BTC as it's initially starting out principle, so how much it can spend per month may well depend on the valuation of the 100 BTC, and I had surely been considering using the 200-week moving average as the valuation of the funds, which surely is problematic currently because BTC's spot price is currently under the 200-week moving average.
 yet it is possible that the fund could withdraw into cash a year in advance, and/or even have withdrawal parameters on a quarterly basis that are measured in terms of how far above or below the spot price is from the 200-week moving average.  It is possible that if the BTC price is below the 200-week moving average then the fund is not allowed to cash out any BTC into dollars during that time.  

Of course, it is quite possible and even likely that some of the contracts would stipulate that if payments are in BTC (and some (and maybe all) would be required to be in BTC), then there might be ways to still pay out in BTC when the spot price is under the 200-week moving average with an understanding that the valuation of how much is paid is based on the 200-week moving average, and the fund is not allowed to pay based on dollar valuations that are lower than the 200-week  moving average.  Accordingly the recipient gets the same amount of BTC as if the BTC price were at the 200-week moving average, but it results in a lower dollar value based on spot price because the fund is not allowed to go below the 200-week moving average when calculating how much to pay to target recipients (fund administrators and any administrative assistants, too).

I will think this over; I may reply further if/when it makes sense to write a long post on this particular topic.  Whether to bounce around more ideas in a public discussion, or beyond that.

Fair enough.

Something else that’s been on my mind:

I like what e.g. MIT-DCI does with Wladimir.  Per-project grants are good and necessary; paying someone’s full-time salary gets a different type of long-term result.

I observe that, to the best of my knowledge, there is a lack of sufficient opportunities for strongly anonymous/pseudonymous developers.  Satoshi himself would be unable to obtain the position that Wladimir has with MIT-DCI.  But a part of Bitcoin’s resilience is the active contribution of parties who cannot be identified IRL—to be blunt, those who can merrily ignore any frivolous lawsuits from Craig Wright, who are immune to public harassment, etc., etc.  This is not merely a theoretical concern—not cypherpunk “paranoia”!

I think that the fund can be comfortable with the developer,  so there might be some uncertainties regarding how comfortable the fund might feel about funding developers who fit that definition.  I thought that square had one developer who was ONLY a pseudonym.. and surely it helps if precedent is set or some kind of comfortable contract language (or lack of contract) that might be comfortable for the fund... and maybe the fund might not be comfortable having all of its developer funds to be distributed in that kind of way, and might even impose a restriction on itself in terms of funding 50% of all developer funds to be able to be used within such category... probably some legal consultation would be beneficial depending how the fund is set up and in which state or country it has a license or whatever set up it might have. and there might be some se t ups(arrangements) that fall into special categories in terms of the funding that the fund chooses to distribute within its budget)

Given that I am strongly pseudonymous, and I never intend to be otherwise, it is interesting to me that there is probably a niche with unmet needs for funding developers who refuse to be doxed for any reason whatsoever.  “By their PGP-signed commits shall ye know them.”

For sure there are reasons to have those kinds of set ups and even to figure out ways to fund those kinds of set ups, and surely some of the discussions of the details of how to set them up might be less valuable to carryout in a public thread or even through private messages but  instead through more secure communication channels that hopefully are sufficiently comfortable (and secure) for everyone including funding sources and funded persons/pseudonyms... surely not easy.. and surely some of the relationships are made at conferences or private introductions and surely some pseudonyms don't want to be met, but they still need to be comfortable enough for the funding sources to feel it is a good ideas to fund in such an arrangement.
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June 30, 2022, 07:52:20 AM
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How we all doing?
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June 30, 2022, 07:58:21 AM

I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

And just as a reminder, this is another piece of essential Bitcoin information that CSW got wrong.

I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

How did Craig frame the matter?

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000.. just like back in the good ole days.. but this time will be different for yours truly.  This time, I will buy mining equipment and also BTC (at the same time), too.  I am going to start mining even though I have no fucking clues.. but it will be profitable if I wait and I will learn, too.  I'm a fast learner if I put my mind to it, especially for sub $1k BTC prices,.  Cannot go wrong with that... It's only about a 95% drop from here, and historically speaking BTC has had 95% price drops before, and this time is special too.. Look at the macro circumstances, there are  alot of problems in the world, and bitcoin tends to drop more than everything else, at least in the short term, so $1k is almost guaranteed.. inevitable..

Cut looses your gooses, people!!!!.


How we all doing?

Good, and you?

I am going to buy miners and BTC once we reach sub $1k..
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June 30, 2022, 08:01:20 AM


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June 30, 2022, 08:02:15 AM

I wonder how much SBF is willing to risk on private bailouts that create future moral hazard.

I don’t hate him the same way that some here do.  I recognize that he is very smart.  I tend to have a certain respect for smart people.

Just saying that if he overextends himself—a hell of a question mark—then his attempt to buy future moral hazard may be a self-solving problem.  He does not have the ability of a government to create unlimited money out of thin air, then let the burden fall on the people through taxation, inflation, and the kind of unbounded debt that happens when debtors can pass laws raising their own credit limits.  Billionaires with MIT degrees can get rekt, too!

In 2008, I said that “too big to fail” needs to fail fast and hard—no matter what short-term pain may result.  Because the alternative is unlimited long-term pain.  In 2022, should I say differently here?  It is now patently obvious that numerous corrupt billionaires laid land mines throughout our market.  Now, they bring “The Times 03/Jan/2009” into Bitcoinland.  Insofar as I can see, the only way to clean up that mess is to let the mines detonate—right in their faces.

If Buddy makes you sad, look on the bright side:  Perhaps in the long run, a really awful-more-awfuller crash right now could be good for Bitcoin.  Perhaps, perhaps...  #justsaying
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June 30, 2022, 08:16:45 AM

I am Warren Buffet’s secret Bitcoin Forum account.

I know Warren Buffet, and you are no Warren Buffet.   Tongue


[No-substance shitpost, beneath substantive reply.]

Good job losing the respect I’ve held for you for more years than you realize.

Well that sucks.  

You are one of the savvier ones here, when you are not being deliberately obtuse.

You mean there is still a chance?  One of my friends asked that same question, once (in a movie).

Since you have never crossed the line of all-out attacking me personally, I can simply pass by your evasiveness, misdirection, and occasional pointless insults as hereby.  It won’t work with me—not even when you sometimes attempt to win by bluster and bombast what you cannot by ratiocination.

I did not realize that I was trying to win.

I do prefer to win in regards to the creation of the parameters of my own interactions and how or if I choose to respond to ideas presented in these thread posts including but not limited to exercising my own discretion and independent judgment in respect to what I consider to be relevant, interesting or important considerations.
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