I will have to deign a -1 for uie-pooie, especially since you misquoted me, and potentially contributing to wee bit of extra drama (who does not want some drama here and there?), since my haiku conversion had been directed at philipma1957 rather than at dee dude(s)...

This post seems to contradict your other post in the Road to $100k thread Pi-network314159, in which I responded in a quite critical way of what I believed you to have been proclaiming in regards to an expectation to a BTC dip in your post therein.. or your therein expressed (seemingly lopsided) expectation that BTC prices could not end up just going up from here without any further price correction.

Approximately 1 in 10.. something in that range.. Are you in the mood to bet me, you gambling fool?   hahahahahaha no homo..

I  couldn't resist to address you as a "fool".. it just seemed to fit well.  

By the way, I would not be willing to give anyone the level of odds that I believe to be likely on me, but I might be willing give odds that are slightly greater than 50/50.. .. .. but yeah, so maybe that reflects that I am not as confident that I say, since I am not willing to give the full odds that I ascribe.. so then a balance might be considering what odds I might be willing to give, and surely each day the odds might be different from the previous day (and even changes on the hour could cause the odds to change). so today (or earlier today at that particular moment) I was saying (and still I say, for now) 90%-ish odds..

but with the passage of time and if we were to continue to stay above $67,483, then the odds surely would continue to come down with the passage of each day that we were to stay above $67,483, if such a thing were to happen, and then also questioning how far we might end up going above $67,483 would also likely be a factor and would also end up changing the odds in my own head.. So, for sure, odds are a kind of ephemeral concept that have to be captured at the time that they are proclaimed because various subsequent events could end up changing how they are perceived and assessed and based on the passage of time and event(s) could change such assessment of odds radically and/or materially in one direction or another.

I am not presuming that a guy has to have any level of profits, such as 3x or 4x or more before he might come to an assessment that he has accumulated enough BTC and/or he mights start to put systems into place in which he can start to withdraw BTC rather than accumulating it.

Of course, being in profits helps with the assessment of having options, but there still would not necessarily need to be any specific level of profits prior to coming to some kind of an assessment that there is enough BTC and some various withdrawal strategies could start to be employed whether those might be something like sustainable withdrawal or like BTC raking strategies as I get into such discussions in my sustainable withdrawal thread.  Either of those strategies require some kind of a meaningful assessment in regards to having had accumulated enough BTC and perhaps even better to come to an assessment of over-accumulation prior to employing either or both of those strategies to your own BTC holdings.

You make a good point about not knowing which way BTC might go and/or how rapidly it might go in one direction or another, yet you seem to be suggesting a potential for a gradual rise to $100k, which surely is one of the scenarios, but not too likely to play out in a gradual way.. .. sure it could happen, but still "gradual" is ONLY one of the possibilities.. . and so the ultimate conclusion should be that we have some ideas about various scenarios, but each of the scenarios is currently ONLY a kind of speculation about probabilities in which some scenarios are more likely than others, yet none of them are really knowable in advance.. yet at the same time, even if we cannot really know anything with confidence, still there are ways to directionally prepare financially and psychologically simultaneously for either up or down or for various scenarios to play out... and to still have decent chances to profit even though we might be lacking in confidence regarding short-to-medium term specifics.


Wow!!!!  You really sound dumb now Pi-network314159 if you really believe what you are saying.  Hopefully you are not preparing your own self for some kind of inevitable need to go down prior to going up.  That seems quite short-sighted.. .and a surely a problem that a lot of folks have when the fail/refuse to sufficiently and adequately prepare for up becuae they believe down has to come first, which truly is bordering upon retarded to have that kind of thinking when it comes to bitcoin, even though it has already gone up quite a bit in the last 17-ish months.


Well, you do seem to know what you are saying when you proclaim that buys have to be greater than sells in order for the BTC price to go up, yet your assessment about down before up comes off as quite lame, as if you really have any fucking clue in regards to whether the sells are outstripping buys.

You seem to be assuming that the BTC sells are outstripping the buys merely because the BTC price has gone up a lot in the past 17 months.. which seems to show that you don't really have much grasp upon various aspects of reality of what is going on with BTC and its place in the world of assets and/or currencies.

Hopefully, no one is following your own suggestions, and even on a personal level, hopefully you are not so dumb as to believe your own nonsense.. and especially you have ONLY been registered on the forum for around 6 months, so it well could be the case that you have hardly any clue about what bitcoin is except that maybe you bought some and you sold all of what you bought and you are hoping to buy back cheaper, which likely you are going to have fun staying poor if you have those kinds of perspectives in regards to what is king daddy cornz (aka dee honey badger). 

Good luck in the event that you are actually putting your seemingly lame and lacking in perspective beliefs into practice, you are likely going to need it.

You are correct about the need to continue to accumulate BTC through whatever methods that you can, including but not limited to DCA - yet I am not sure about your assessment that normies learn their lessons by witnessing various kinds of past BTC price moves, because it seems that there are a decent number of folks who continue to fail/refuse to learn lessons in regards to BTC accumulation and that is part of the reason why anyone getting into bitcoin and continuing to accumulate BTC until he has accumulated enough (or more than enough) are still early to the whole assessment regarding where bitcoin is in the world as compared to other assets and/or currencies.

The correct lesson to learn seems to be to accumulate BTC and/or to get started ASAP accumulating BTC, yet I expect that the overwhelming majority of the world's population have not figured that out, even though some of them have actually witnessed some aspects of BTC past price performance.

You said it.


 


better you than me.

 


Do you really think so?

I have my doubts.

Yeah, sure we are going through a bit more stickiness within this no man's land territory than I had expected to play out, yet I would hardly even anticipate that we are in any kind of boring price territory, and so in that regard, it seems that anyone who has been in bitcoin for a while (and has some clues about what it is) would be too complacent if we were to even contend that there is any kind of absence of a battle going on in these here price territories (even if on the surface we have the appearance of such apparent peace and tranquility).


There is some truth in a claim that "we have already won," and so in that regard, there are still a quite a few others still trying to figure out that part.

I am not going to battle you in regards to the substantively correctness of that chosen melody.


Interesting description of life activities.. and surely not exactly clear about whether coffee before exercising is a good thing..

I am merely pointing out the matter (observing coffee status), and I am not going to say that I know about the goodness, badness or even neutrality of such.. even though there can be questions (and even differing opinions) regarding such a practice/habit (not that I even know enough in regards to your coffee/exercise practices/habit).


FTFY - haiku conversion for uie-pooie.

that's what you get when you leave blanks...   


Oh wow!!!!!

That's what chartbuddy looks like from the neck down.

Personally, I wouldn't want to meet CB in a dark alley.


oh?       

You really believe that be what "he" be doing right now?

You are making a difficult to justify argument michellee.

You are correct that in theory there could be opportunities available for some people to make money by trading shitcoins that would not otherwise be available to them in terms of their being able to earn money in other kinds of ways in terms of opportunities that might otherwise be available to them.

I am not going to say that it is impossible to build your BTC stash by trading shitcoins since there are likely some ways to accomplish that without gambling and/or risking too much of one's capital.. .. yet if there are ways that guys are able to earn money and put that into bitcoin, then that may well be a better way to continuously stack sats.. ..

Another problem is that if a guy might have figured out some way to stack sats, and maybe he has decided to use up to 10% of his bitcoin holdings, and so maybe he starts out with $10k of BTC holdings, and he is using around $1k of that amount to trade shitcoins, and so every month or so, he moves his profits from his shitcoin trading into bitcoin.. and so is this going to make any kind of meaningful difference to his bitcoin holdings versus getting some kind of job and trying to make as much as he can in order to buy bitcoin every month.. and yeah, maybe he can do both, but he is also engaging in various kinds of trade-offs in terms of how he is using his time (and perhaps to corrupt his brain) by fucking around with shitcoins.

Yeah, surely this thread is not about trading and/or fucking around with shitcoins, so maybe we are already getting too off topic and too distracted in terms of delving into the practicalities that some guys might be tempted into thinking that they are able to leverage some of their value and to put into various shitcoins to be able to earn more bitcoin than they might have had been able to just buy bitcoin through more normal and regular income-producing practices (such as earning income from working - whether in your own business or working for someone else)...   


Part of the idea of the asymmetric bet to the upside and the fact that there is a lot of ongoing and inevitable volatility in bitcoin, those people who are trying to be too smart about the situation and to fuck around with trying to play BTC's inevitable price waves, they likely are going to end up getting caught on the wrong side of one wave or another and they should have had just stopped fucking around and concentrated on accumulating bitcoin until their BTC holdings get to a largely unambiguous state of overaccumulation. .. and so it is going to be more difficult to valuate these kinds of matters by getting sucked into watching BTC's spot price rather than attempting to put into practice more sound ways of valuating your BTC holdings and making sure that you are ongoingly accumulating it rather than fucking around with price waves that might end up contributing to your selling way too many BTC too soon and then you are not able to get those BTC back.... and just think about how many folks likely ended up selling too many of their BTC too soon in the last 6 months or so because they speculated that they might be able to buy back cheaper, including that there are likely going to be guys selling between current prices and $100k and maybe even up to $180k and thinking that they are smarter than everyone else, and so they end up selling too many BTC too soon becuase they conjecture that they have BTC's price waves all figured out rather than spending more time concentrating on their own personal situation and making sure that they continue to stack sats in a more consistent and persistent kind of way, even if they might end up buying some of their sats for way higher prices than what they might have had otherwise been able to do.

If BTC prices get up to $200k, would you rather have 10 BTC with an average price of $100k per BTC or 2 BTC for an average price of $40k?

Maybe this example is not that great, but there are a lot of variations of the same example in which you are going to be way the fuck better off to be continuing to accumulate BTC rather than fucking around trying to play waves and trying to get better prices or to try to get some sats for free because you bought lower than you sold... Yeah do what you like, but it you are not able to keep your eye on the prize and to keep focused on accumulating BTC through persistent and consistent buying of it, then you are likely going to end up not helping yourself in terms of your own approach to BTC.. especially since there are so many examples of BTC accumulators (and HODLers) doing way better than guys fucking around trying to trade BTC price waves in which they may or may not end up getting lucky... when dealing with an asset like BTC that we already have some pretty decent ideas to be the best asset known to man, so why fuck around with it, rather than staying focused on persistently and consistently accumulating it?


Hopefully you are not waiting too much, but instead you are persistently and consistently buying.

Otherwise I agree with you that it tends to take a long-ass time to build up any kind of investment portfolio, and if you have at least figured out that bitcoin is a good place to concentrate your efforts, then you are likely going to be in a better position from having that knowledge, even though you also realize that there are no guarantees in regards to your efforts to invest into bitcoin, so you have to figure out ways to balance your own ongoing consistent and persistent investment into bitcoin in such a way that you are able to survive the various inevitable BTC price waves without putting your BTC at risk or being forced to sell any of it absent your having had already reached some kind of level of over-accumulation that is a reasonable assessment based on your own circumstances and hopefully coming up with some system to measure the value of your BTC from bottom prices rather than from top prices (such as using the 200-WMA) as a means of making such value assessments.


Exactly!!! Investing into shitcoins - and/or trying to trade for the purpose of generating capital in order to invest (or accumulate) bitcoin is such a slippery slope that we can question the extent to which those kinds of folks are delusional in terms of their supposed abilities to actually make progress in stacking sats rather than ongoingly putting their capital at risk which sooner or later is likely to bite them in the ass, especially if they attribute skill to luck and don't really know how to employ sound practices to ensure that they are sufficiently/adequately hedging their bets, which is not easy to accomplish even for folks who spend a lot of time developing various kinds of trading skills/practices.


That is part of the problem of the nutjob folks advising trading.  They try to present trading as if it were either a sure thing or as if it were a great place to spend time, energies and resources, and even though I am not opposed to ideas of guys learning new skills; hopefully they do not get so lured into beliefs that trading (and/or getting involved in shitcoins) is a good way to spend their time, energies and values rather than approaching their bitcoin from a more realistic perspective that has way greater chances of building value with the passage of time and ongoingly investing time, energies and value into bitcoin.. and yeah none of it is guaranteed, so each of us has to figure out our own balances... and hopefully we don't end up being either too dumb and/or greedy in our own ways of reaching our personal balances.


In this last paragraph, you captured the main thrust in regards to how any of us might want to attempt to focus ourselves.   

Surely you seem to be justifying the deferred gratification idea, which also seems to imply a kind of situation in which you already have a system in place in which you are sufficiently gratified, so when you receive an additional $50k by surprise, you are able to pretty much dedicate all of it towards investing rather than consumption, since presumptively you are suggesting that you already have your consumption systems in place...

Even having had said all of that, I cannot really blame guys who want to dedicate a certain percent of the new value to consumption, but yeah, since the value is a surprise amount, it is difficult to consider that it would be necessary to dedicate very high amounts of that new surprise value to consumption rather than to investing... and perhaps one of the ONLY exceptions would be if your investment situation is already in a very strong place, so then when the $50k comes in, you do not feel any need to add  it to your investment, since you already have a very strong investment situation.. ..so then in that kind of a situation, you end up allocating more of that $50k towards the consumption side rather than towards the investment side..

So for example, if a guy had established an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million,^** yet he finds himself with around $10 million in value of his various investments (whether bitcoin or otherwise), so since he is around 5x higher than his goal, then he might already feel that he is overly invested, and so in that kind of a circumstance, he might end up putting most if all into the consumption side of the equation rather than in the investment side.

** Note:These numbers should largely work the same if we were to consider $200k versus $1 million (1/10th the above-described amount).. in terms of whatever a guy might consider his own idea of entry-level fuck you status... yet of course, $50k ends up being a way higher relative amount in terms of a guy who considers entry-level fuck you status as $200k versus the guy who considers entry-level fuck you status as $2 million, yet similar principles would still apply in regards to a guy who finds himself some proportion of multiples above his entry-level fuck you status tending to give lower priority towards needing to invest with any new amount as opposed to being o.k. with any decision to allocate that amount towards consumption

There is no such thing as "top L1s" except for bitcoin.  So hopefully members are not so retarded as to hold any more than 10% of the size of their bitcon holdings in various shitcoins .. and 10% would be the max for guys who cannot resist but to gamble, which is what you are doing with any shitcoin(s) that you choose to hold..

and another thing, don't be trying to cheat by continuing to invest into shitcoins (by reallocating and engaging in various other potential loopholes to put more value into shit that you are not even able to name - except for claiming that they are "top L1" which is just a bullshit kind of an idea anyhow) when they are losing value unless you might be injecting new money into shitcoins, then surely you could buy up to 10% with your new money for any amount of shitcoins that would be measured from the new money that you would end up putting into bitcoin and then allowing yourself to put up to 10% of that new money value into various shitcoins... .and surely with any gambler, they may well find ways to  allocate more into their gambling habit than they should be doing, so hopefully, for your own good, you are able to figure out ways to limit your temptations to gamble into the shiny objects that are known as shitcoins... but yeah, shitcoiners and gamblers are going to shitcoin/gamble.

Surely if you are fairly young and somewhat athletic, then you are more likely able to build your muscles more easily than an older person, yet I don't know how any member would expect to be able to just double his pushup plateau point.. When I was in the practice of training for running marathons, I would frequently assert that if any regular runner has a training distance that is regular, he should be able to double such distance for a one time kind of event.. such as a marathon and still be able to get through the whole distance with a matter of pacing himself..

Yet the same thing is likely not even close to true with something like pushups.. You cannot just double your amounts, even if maybe you are regularly not doing them to a point of failure.. and if you are continuously doing your pushups to a point of failure, then I have difficulties understanding how you would just be able to increase the amount.. because your body is going to fail..

Maybe you can squeak out an additional 5% or 10%, but if you are continuously carrying out a certain quantity of pushups to failure, you are not going to just automatically be able to either double the amount or even to just squeak out another 30% to 50%, and surely 5% to 10% is more realistic, even though surely every once in a while you might be able to level up a bit higher amounts such as in the range of 20% or so.. but it seems unrealistic to be expecting abilities to just ramp up your pushups by greater than 30% in any short-period of time merely due to will power, especially if you are already working yourself to failure points.. and more so for more elderly people even though younger folks in their 20-40 range might be able to have a lot more hidden underlying muscle potential that previously they had not realized that they had.


Of course, I have been playing along with your little funzies, yet for sure, I have noticed quite a few of your posts in recent times, and surely you seem to be lacking in terms of your long term commitment to BTC, including that you seem to be wanting to shave off some profits rather than continuously buying BTC and/or taking advantage of BTC price dips.

So, I get the sense that you are not even close to a point of over-accumulation but instead you are wanting to sell BTC to be able to buy back cheaper, which is not a good way of thinking about BTC and it is likely going to continue to contribute to your own stress based on your lack of an approach to BTC that focuses further into the future.

You are ONLY able to help yourself in regards to the extent that you are able to figure out some long term approach to bitcoin rather than getting worried about short term price moves and probably your desire to shave some BTC off (and perhaps all (or too much) of your BTC holdings) so that you can buy more back cheaper (which may or may not end up working out).  

You have been registered on the forum for almost a year and a half.. but you probably need to just continue to figure out ways to accumulate BTC and don't get so worried about BTC price and/or points in which you can sell some of your holdings, and perhaps after 10-15 years or longer, you will start to feel that you really have ended up building a lot of options for yourself with both the amount that you put into BTC and its likely appreciation during the time of your building your holdings of it..

Of course, there are no guarantees in whatever we do, but each of us needs to figure out some kind of a strategy that allows us to actually benefit from BTC rather than fucking around with trying to trade the best asset known to man and widely available to anyone who is able to recognize, appreciate and adequately build their own BTC stash to improve their own life during this seemingly ongoing greatest transfer of wealth in history and preference to be on the receiving side of such wealth transfer rather than either being disconnected or even ending up on the giving side or it.


You seem to be low balling BTC if you are keeping $100k as your framing of the next ATH.. even though you mentioned $100k and above, your mindset is surely lowballing the idea.. even though surely we might ONLY end up with lower numbers, and there is also no guarantee that BTC will go up from here.. but still the base case is likely way the fuck greater than $100k-ish, even if the base case still might ONLY have 30% or so odds of happening, the idea of a base case is that it is the most likely of any of the possibilities, at least at the time that the assertion is made.


Any of us who makes a plan to do something like this every day likely is going to be advantaged in terms of keeping track by writing it down.. helps to both keep us serious, but also gives a more accurate ability to verify the extent to which progress is being made or not..

Surely, we can see if we are able  to increase the amount of pushups that we do if it goes from 20, 35 to 50, etc, but there can be a lot more granular ways of measuring progress that might not be very apparent without some kind of note taking.

I know a category that I could include would be regarding which parts of my body hurt and how much, since that has also seemed to have had changed over time... but I am not keeping track of body pains in my notes.. but it could help when something so intense like this is playing out.. 5 times per day.. holy shit.. for 62 days so far.. that is a lot of activity and time spent with this.. even though I started out with 2-3 times per day and the got to 4 times per day and I ONLY have been doing 5 times per day in the last 41 days.. but it is still a lot.

Another thing that I just realized in regards to writing down your quantity of pushups for each set, perhaps what time you did them, how long it took you to do them and perhaps how you felt (areas of pain), there can also be some difficulties in keeping track of how many pushups you are doing while you are doing them because sometimes you might be trying to breath, or thinking about the pain and the exertion, but then you also might lose track of the count.. so even then, there is likely some value in terms of both knowing that you are going to be writing it down to contribute towards your attempt to keep track of it and also your writing it down right away so that you don't forget and/or mix up what you had actually done since you might have other things going on in your life and distracting you from remembering and/or keeping track of whichever kinds of specifics you determine to be important to you now and/or what specifics you might want to have in written form when you are reviewing what you had accomplished when it comes to time passing down the road.. which I would have hardly any clue regarding the specifics of what I had done in regards to daily pushups one or two months ago, even though maybe I have some vague memory of it.. but writing it down causes it to be a much more reliable reference point..


I am not sure how the halvening is going to affect participation in this thread.  I would imagine that the longer the thread lasts, the more and more guys are going to drop off from doing their pushups daily and several guys will lose interest, without necessarily writing to tell us that they had lost interest... It is not an easy task to both keep up doing the pushups and also to talk about it.. and perhaps talking about it does help to keep it going - even though even ongoing talking about it might still not be enough to motivate everyone to do their pushups even if they want to do it, it hurts to do them.. and to continue to do them several times per day and consistently do them.. ouch!!!.. having said that, I am going to do my second set for today.. .. right around 2 hours after my first set for today..

Generally what you are saying Tmoonz is correct, but you said it in a way that is not technically correct - especially since all miners are going to end up feeling the impact of the halvening, yet some miners who are more efficient are going to be able to survive the halvening more easily, and it is quite likely that some of the less efficient miners are going to end up getting forced out of business, but it is also possible that the fact that the BTC price has largely already more than doubled over the past 6 months so several of the less efficient miners will still be able to continue to survive, including if the BTC price continues to go up, then the rising of the BTC price will end up contributing towards less efficient miners to continue to survive when they might have been forced out of business if the BTC price had not gone up as much.

Another simultaneous mining dynamic is the ongoing and persistent rising of the difficulty level and the amount of hashpower that has to come into play in order to be able to have some chances of winning some blocks, which surely raises the costs of operating miners and also there likely are some real world dynamics that have to do with ongoingly seeking out low energy costs and potentially jurisdictions that are not hostile towards mining in terms of either putting more costs on miners or even potentially not honoring their property rights so putting their equipment and even their freedom at risk if they were to choose to operate in certain jurisdictions as opposed to other jurisdictions.


You are correct that it is not a good practice to wait for down before up, when down may or may not end up happening.. sure it might happen, but it might not.. so therefore, erep's proclamation is erroneous when he is asserting that bitcoin has high chances of correcting merely because it had gone up a lot in recent times.   

I do find it problematic for members, such as you Tmoonz, to continue to conflate the terms of lump sum buying and buying on dips, since there are meaningful differences in the concepts and the practices and the reasons why someone might lump sum invest versus buying on dips... In other words, there is no need to refer to some form of buying on dips as lump sum merely since you might be buying more BTC than what you would usually buy...

The idea of lump sum is having some amount of BTC that you are holding right now (whether you got it from surprise source or you made such amount available to you by moving it from some other location or if you take out a loan), and you decide right now in regards to how much of that amount that you are going to invest right now with that amount that is currently available to you... so that amount that you would use to buy right now is not necessarily connected with whether or not there is a dip, but instead connected with your own decision regarding how much of that amount that is available right now that you want to use to buy BTC right now in order to prepare for UP that may or may not end up happening.

Anyhow, the main thing I am continuing to suggest is that lump sum and buying on dips is different.

Little by little, we are going to eek out those 2021 dates.. .. but I would imagine that the odds are quite high that it is likely to take more than 82 days to accomplish such eekening...

Not impossible to do it in 82 days, but seems like  a long shot-- maybe greater than 90% odds of taking longer than 82 days.

Poor us.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not much of a subscriber to any theories regarding "down before up" since there are several ways in which we might not end up accomplishing ONLY "UP only" from here... so in that regard, I am continuously suggesting that folks make sure that they are prepared for UP.. .. but still, how could we assign less than 90% odds towards ONLY 82 days remaining to knock out the remaining 2021 dates?

I question if there might be a bit of propaganda going on in these here parts trying to steer folks away from the actual benefits of natural saturated fats and the fats in meats, eggs, bacon etc...  .. sure nothing wrong with a few nuts here and there, but there might be a bit problematic to be eating too many nuts and getting led into beliefs and/or propaganda that   animal fats and proteins are not as good for you when animal fats and proteins might even be better.. yet even that is not clear about the benefits of ruminants over other kinds of animal meats..

Well, just think at the time of the start of this thread, investing a good amount of the $50k into bitcoin would have done quite well for anyone with such insight in terms of investing rather than strict consumption.  Surely there is nothing wrong with consumption, but if you think about the thrust of the responses in this thread, it is not easy to figure out how so many guys seem to first think of consumption and many also talk about investing into various other things that are not called bitcoin, even though surely we are in a bitcoin forum and many of us should have already come to the conclusion that bitcoin is a good investment....

Think about the hypothetical one more time.. it is an extra $50k that you had not otherwise expected to have.  

So surely there should be differences in the financial status and/or the financial preparations of guys in regards to their buying bitcoin, yet might we not already assume that guys in this forum already have some kind of bitcoin related investment plan that also may well involve a kind of projection in regards to where the guy is going and how long it might take to get there, so then $50k should advance the journey, so surely it could be possible to divide the $50k into four quarters, and so then maybe 1/4 goes into bitcoin right away, 1/4 goes towards buying on dip and DCA, maybe another 1/4 goes into shoring up cash reserves and other aspects in which a guy's finances might be coming up short. .and maybe another 1/4 could go towards consumption - though that seems a bit much.. maybe just 1/10 goes towards some various kinds of consumption.

Compare investing into bitcoin at the time of the start of this thread in August 2023, and so at the time of the starting of this thread there would have been considerable opportunities to buy bitcoin between around $26.2k and perhaps $27.5k depending on how the timing of the BTC buys went.

Of course your response to this thread (jossiel) was in early November 2023, so even then, BTC prices had largely been bouncing around in the price range of $36k to $38k, so it might have been perceived that some of the bitcoin opportunities had gone, but then again, where are we trying to go with our investment and what is our timeline, so if we put some or most of the money into bitcoin, since we conclude that it is not quite enough to invest it into something that costs way more capital, such as a personal property, then we might consider the personal property as one of our aims, yet it still seems problematic to sacrifice investing too much into property and to deplete our BTC investment, so there could surely be ways to attempt to achieve both, yet we would still need to build our BTC and also hope that our BTC is growing alongside with the investments that we put into it. with the time of your post.

Even with your March 2016 forum registration date, jossiel, you may well could be in a position in which you might have already built your own amount of BTC that some day you might use some portion of your BTC to buy a house, even though I question anyone who supposedly knows about bitcoin and who feels compelled to rush into real estate and/or concluding that it is better to be in real estate than it is to be in bitcoin... so there likely is some need for balance in terms of how much value to keep in various kinds of assets that are not bitcoin... and which place is going to be better to hold your value and/or how to balance those various interests.

Of course someone investing $100 per week into bitcoin for the past 8 years would have had invested around $42k and would have had accumulated nearly 12 BTC, which surely should give more options for buying a house, even if it might be just shaving off some portion of those BTC to invest into a house.

Getting the money today, would not necessarily materially change the kinds of weighing of the decisions and the balancing as compared with mid-August 2023 or early November 2023, even though there is a real life fact that BTC prices have come up around close to 2.5x since August 2023 and around 1.8x since November 2023, yet I am not sure if the mere appreciation of BTC prices would necessarily change the allocations, yet no matter what the amounts are still getting plugged into systems that the guy is already following, so likely there would be areas in which the cash side of his budget could be buttressed and other areas in which the investment side of his budget could be buttressed.. . .so sure there could end up being some differences based on differences in the BTC price, yet we are also ONLY able to act from today (or tomorrow, since OP mentions that we would be receiving the $50k amount "tomorrow.") , we cannot turn back the clock.


The example did not say anything about having to pay taxes, and so the hypothetical seems to be that you have $50,000, so maybe you need to get some tax consulting with that money, but I would not assume that it would necessarily be the case that the amount is taxable, so in that regard, I am having trouble presuming that there is going to be a necessity to pay taxes on the amount received...  

Another thing you mentioned some places that you would put the money, yet you did not say anything about investing into bitcoin - which surely seems surprising.

Of course, I look at your forum registration date and I see that you have been here since October 2012 - so surely it could be that you did not mention buying any bitcoin since you already have enough bitcoin or you have too much bitcoin, so yeah, that could be understandable in terms of a possible explanation why you did not mention anything about buying any bitcoin with the extra windfall money, namely the $50k freebee money that rolled into one of our accounts.


Now, this is a good idea. Start out by developing a plan that has potentially investment components and also consumption components and then figure out how much is going to go towards each broad category and then thereafter narrow it down to more narrow ideas within each of the categories.. .. that sounds good.. ... part investment and part consumption, and how you divide up the investment versus consumption would depend in part upon how far you already are in your investment journey..

You sound like a dumb little twat.

Most people need protection in order to make sure that they have enough BTC, and your drawing attention to some possible fall of BTC comes off as someone who does not know anything.

Yeah, maybe there is a need to be ready to buy any dip that might come, but the mere fact that BTC prices are breaking new ATHs does not necessarily mean that any meaningful correction is going to happen.. yeah, it might, but it might not, so hopefully dumb little twats like you realize that it is good to make sure that you are prepared for either direction and not just overly preparing for one direction that may or may not end up happening and end up under-preparing for another direction that may or may not happen too, but you still better make sure that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP, which seems to be amongst the greatest problems that an overwhelming number of normies still face.. they are either no coiners or they are low coiners and they might be low coiners without actually realizing it.. .

Mostly the amount of pushups per day has been growing, even though I have been feeling some stagnation in the quantity of pushups per day, but if I look at my chart, the quantity is still growing. and sure I have a cushion, so I could choose to do fewer pushups per day, just to take a rest.. and maybe other guys are going through similar kinds of questions regarding if they are liking the quantity of pushups that they continue to do.. or if they need to adjust upwardly or downwardly.


I have only been able to 55 pushups 4 or 5 times and 54 pushups once.   Frequently I try to push to do as many as I can, and I tend to end up in the 40-45 range, so every once in a while I can do more than that.. .pretty rare as you see..   there may have been a few times that I still have gas in the tank, but I don't necessarily want to push it.. or there might be other times that I cannot even do 40 pushups.. but that is also starting to be pretty rare too..

As far as remembering, I just write it down right away.. so that I don't forget.

You are likely thinking more like a trader rather than an investor if you believe that 2-3 years is "long term."

You have been registered on the forum for nearly 3.5 years, so you are coming upon a full cycle, and there could have had been ways that you establish a bitcoin position in less than a full cycle, but if you are building your BTC holdings for the long term, it could take you years and years and years to build a bitcoin position.

Even if you had started buying BTC at $500 per week at around the time of your forum registration date, you would have invested nearly $90k and you would have accumulated slightly less than 3 BTC, and financially you would not necessarily be in a bad place, and sure there could have had been ways to better accumulate your BTC position and/or to buy BTC on dips and/or lump sum and front load your investment, but it still can take a while to build your bitcoin holdings, even if you might happen to be able to figure out when the dips are. 
 

Bull runs do not happen like that.  You are using the wrong term.

We have been in a bull market since about late 2022, even though we might not have had realized it until mid to late 2023.


Sure it might and it might hit before the halvening. though the odds for before the halvening is not looking as good.. but it is looking a lot better than it did last October when Adam Back had made the bet about $100k prior to the halvening.. he kind of appeared like a nutjob, but not so much now.. especially now that we are ONLY around 30% to 35% from $100k as I type.
 

Have you been trading the whole time that you have been in bitcoin?  Do you think trading outperforms buying and accumulating? 

Personally it seems problematic from my perspective for guys to believe that they can accumulate more BTC by selling BTC rather than by buying... but sure everyone has their techniques and hopefully you are able to reach your goals and/or to build your BTC stash, but yeah if you don't recognize BTC as valuable, you might be spending too much time stacking dollars rather than stacking sats and that is likely NOT going to end up being as good of a place to be, even if it may well take a bit of time to build up a decent-sized BTC stash.

To me, it sounds like you don't know what the halvening is.

It is the halvening of the new issuance of bitcoin, so instead of 6.25 BTC rewarded every 10 minutes it is only 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, which also could be translated as a reduction from 900 new BTC per day to 450 new BTC per day.. It does not effect the existing supply, except perhaps to put more pressure on the existing supply since fewer amounts of new BTC is coming onto the market.

Another thing that is NOT of immediate effect is that there is something like 100 blocks, so the miner cannot spend the newly minted coins until the next day.. so it is not a very long delay before the newly issued coins can be spent.

The reason that the price tends to go up after a halvening is that it might take a bit of time for the lowering of the new supply to be felt, yet this time around, it appears that there is an ongoing pressure on the BTC supply that had not been so much present in earlier halvenings, so if the ongoing pressures continue to be put on the existing BTC supply, then surely the BTC price will go up and it will allow for more BTC to be available for sale, yet it if the buying pressure is greater than the amount of coins that existing BTC holders are ready, willing and/or able to sell, then the BTC price will go up until a sufficient amount of BTC supply is made available for the various ongoing new BTC buyers are able to get their BTC (in this case quite a bit still seems to be coming from the new BTC ETF issuers).

It is a bit funny in regards to how he said it, and especially saying that if the BTC price reaches $170k, then he will buy $10k and give them to you, so in essence that would be $170k/$10k = 0.05882353 BTC - and yeah of course, he seems to be wanting to create an impression that he is not holding BTC, and maybe it does not matter if he were to just send you 0.05882353 BTC or if he were to buy them with dollars first.   


It is good to know about the four year cycle, but not necessarily to get too attached to them or to try to play them unless you have already determined that you have enough BTC or more than enough.. ..

yet, I know guys are going to try to play the cycle and they might not necessarily yet be in a position in which they should be either selling their BTC or discontinuing in buying BTC.


Maybe it could end up playing out like that?  I have my doubts about MTGOX coins contributing much if anything to downward pressures or even failure to go up pressures.

There maye be some time in which the UPpity between now and October might get to be too much.. so maybe there will be a correction somewhere along the way between here and October.. and still expecting a kind of fair range of $120k to $180k for 2024. before figuring out whether MOAR Uppity might be necessary or not (necessary to accommodate the likely ongoing buying pressures from BTC spot ETF buyers and various copy-cat buyers)..