That's the whole point of this exercise.
How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme? Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism. +1 |
|
|
|
Is there an Armory request thread?
Not having a viewable conversaion rate or balance on what I'm putting it against makes me have to do math when I don't need to be. Being that BTC against USD changes so quickly, it should be a priority to put at least an average value of what each BTC is worth. There is plenty of screen space to do this, is it something difficult to program in?
Thanks Armory
Well, I would rather ask my bank to put on my online account an average value of what each USD is worth (in btc). USD is fiat money, therefore worthless. BTC is the real thing  |
|
|
|
...
Creo que muchos nos vamos a arrepentir de no haber comprado hace unos meses.
Yo creo que tambien pero no tengais prisa, seria mejor volver en un par de meses cuando Bitcoin sea mas estable. Si no, os puede pasar "la narydu", soltar monedas a la minima con las consiguentes perdidas monetarias, claro  Especular siempre es arriesgado. En cambio, apostar al bitcoin a largo plazo, siempre una cantidad que te puedas permitir perder, es en mi opinión una decisión más que sabia. Yo las monedas que he ido comprando jamás las he vendido, en todo caso las he usado para comprar productos y así apoyar la economía del btc... Y me ha ido bien, mi modesta apuesta se ha multiplicado por 3 (y eso que la última vez compré a 33€, pero la primera vez compré a 14€). Por desgracia, entre mis compras también está una máquina de los timadores de BFL  |
|
|
|
You no accept card or paypal, you no trust, you create demand for bitcoins, push price higher. Bitcoin payment need trust. We use other payment now? Or you still no trust?
As a vendor, I don't trust Paypal. And I've had many bad experiences with credit card companies where I always ended up holding the short stick If I could do my entire business by receiving BTC only, I would surely sleep a lot better at night As for driving up the price of BTC, I can only salute the Avalon team on a job well done. I've crossed the point where I stopped wondering about the equivalent value in EUR, I just look at how much BTC I spent on Avalon hardware and I am calculating forward to where I am breaking even, recouping all my BTC and start generating new BTC thus adding value to this community The underlying USD and EUR world is no long relevant Most of us think in BTC, and we're in BTC for the long run. But you will agree that: a) more hashing power = greater difficulty = longer to b/e b) if you have been in bitcoin for a short time, you did not buy a lot of coins cheap nor you mined a lot of btc when difficulty was lower. And with the current usd/btc exchange rate, buying btc to buy an Avalon is quite an investment/gamble. c) if you are in btc only for the profit, given the surging exchange rate it may be wiser to simply buy btc and hold That said, a lot of people is willing to get an ASIC to help to secure the network, etc. But the Avalon price is a big and risky investment, specially for a newcomer. |
|
|
|
Creo sinceramente que los de Avalon se han pasado con el precio. BLF esta "a punto" (entiendase de forma laxa) de sacar sus ASICs que son tecnológicamente superiores (aquí me estoy fiando de la opinión de aTg), y Avalon esta preparando su salida (o evolución a los 65nm) con un pelotazo en el tercer batch. En el segundo batch subieron el precio (lo cual carece de sentido) y coló. En ésta están intentando hacer sonar la flauta.
Lo del contrato me parece una excelente idea. No entiendo porque todo el mundo "cede" sus bitcoins tan a la ligera.
Yo también creo que se han pasado, por eso no compro una unidad para mi solo y ofrezco asociarme con alguien, para reducir el riesgo. 90btc es mucha exposición, a menos que te puedas permitir los btc a) por haber comprado muchos muy baratos o b) por haber minado muchos btc cuando la dificultad era más baja. Dicho esto, hay varias cosas que hablan en favor de Avalon: 1) el Dr. Zhang es un crack, eso es indiscutible 2) Avalon es la única empresa que ha desarrollado y entregado a cliente final un ASIC Además, si Avalon entrega en Mayo tal y como garantiza Yifu, y con la dificultad al doble de lo que tenemos ahora, el ROI se alcanzaría en sólo 4 semanas... Falta por ver si BFL realmente empieza a entregar equipos "en un par de semanas" tal y como dicen. Lo cierto es que la cola de pedidos es muy larga, y ni de coña entregarán todo de golpe... Hay que ver qué ritmo llevan. Aún están testeando los chips y están teniendo problemas, con eso está todo dicho. Podemos usar este hilo para analizar todas las variables, hasta que el batch #3 salga a la venta. Mi oferta sigue en pié: si a alguien de Madrid le apetece asociarse para embarcarse en esta aventura, que lo diga y hablamos. |
|
|
|
I will save BTC for your generation #2 first batch from now on Hopefully by then there will be more competition or the network hashrate is a lot higher so we won't be forced to come up with these ridiculous numbers. Yeah, that's quite frank from your side. Agree that these are ridiculous numbers, but still this is pure free market in action. No competition = ridiculous numbers, more risk for the consumer we discussed batch3 price for a long time.
personally, i do think this is a reasonable price.
batch#1: 1300USD + your trust, batch#2: 1500USD + your trust, batch#3 = ?
why batch 1 and batch2 customers will enjoy such a low USD price and extremly high profit? because they put their valuable trust on us.
last September, most of you think we have little chance to win, or could be a crappy scam, you don't buy.
this January, considerable people think we take Jeff down or just spent 400K to make a prototype, you don't buy.
now, everything on track, machines delivered to your hands are only a matter of time. you want to buy them at a same price or something like 2000USD.
OK, please tell me, what is the price of people most valuable things "trust" should be? 500USD? no, 5000USD at least.
as a core developer, i look upon all Avalons as my son. i will send them to who believe us, not the faithless or buzzard.
Double the price is reasonable, 4+ times the "price" with another indefinite wait is absurd. Especially considering the hiccups and the delays and the general stonewalling of the people ( like me ) who ordered batch1 and batch 2 and still have nothing but a few emails and promises of "its shipped". If you want to sell them for 100btc and you have them in stock and are shipping the next day and guarantee delivery in a week, yeah maybe the price works for the profiteers. If you want 100 btc and you jerk everyone around like the last 2 orders, ignore the users asking for very little information and don't maintain a delivery schedule, it not going to happen. People are going to go to BFL, get their SC or minirig in the same time frame and have smaller more efficient devices. Avalon has a niche, exploit it a little, don't go raping people. The guys who are buying them mostly are people like me, not profiteers, we are hobbyists. I'm not rich. I'm a poor college researcher like you. Dr Zhang you've always been a straight shooter and very knowledgeable. You guys deserve a profit. If you need a huge profit then just publically mine with half a batch and make your money there and sell the other half. Limit orders to one per person and premine the units for a week or whatever then ship them off. But demanding a ridiculous cost in btc up front with vague delivery and distant support is not what I've come to expect from team avalon. +100000 I'm also an admirer of Dr Zhang. As said earlier, I'm starting to save for his 2nd gen asics. Batch #3 is too risky and expensive for me. |
|
|
|
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
Well, it's nice having you here answering questions. Unfortunately batch #3 is too risky for me, I don't have the bitcoins bought/mined cheap enough. In my opinion +6000usd is plain too risky given the circumstances and difficulty projections. I will save BTC for your generation #2 first batch from now on |
|
|
|
I really wish the BTC to crash hard just after Avalon starts taking order. We shall see what happens to their BTC 88 - 115 payment plan. Greedy bastards.
How are they any more greedy than miners? Based on this thread, miners themselves have no confidence in BTC and view it only as a means to earn USD. Bwahahaha, this the exact reason why I don't respect some of my potential customers, I don't even want money from these people. In afterthought, raising the price it must stopped a lot people were purchasing because how brainless the profit was, now there is some math and faith involved. I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person. I was "really?" at first, but then after thinking about it, it didn't seem bad. With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure. Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits. Come on. They are just pushing their profit to the maximum giving the circumstance that right now they have no competition, that's all. They even acknowledge that now ROI is not guaranteed, you need "math and faith". So the current pricing + the greed taking over will make them sell out the units, making a huge profit, while is quite possible (but not certain) that the batch #3 buyers will not even recoup their costs. That said, I think they did a great move for themselves: they set the right price for people still buying the whole batch, in perfect correlation with the current exchange rate. If they priced the units let's say a 20% higher, maybe they would have a problem selling all the units. if we want to min-max, we wouldn't sell in the first place. the math is made on a one month ROI when diff is 10,000,000. very basic. Don't get me wrong, I respect what you did. You are legit, and you did an excellent job. I just don't think that difficulty will be 10,000,000 when the batch #3 units will reach the customers. Two questions: - can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May? - wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units? |
|
|
|
I really wish the BTC to crash hard just after Avalon starts taking order. We shall see what happens to their BTC 88 - 115 payment plan. Greedy bastards.
How are they any more greedy than miners? Based on this thread, miners themselves have no confidence in BTC and view it only as a means to earn USD. Bwahahaha, this the exact reason why I don't respect some of my potential customers, I don't even want money from these people. In afterthought, raising the price it must stopped a lot people were purchasing because how brainless the profit was, now there is some math and faith involved. I assume that was the feeling. Many are finding out what happens when you deal with a principled business person. I was "really?" at first, but then after thinking about it, it didn't seem bad. With a ROI of 6-12 months, you know they will keep the gear on the network for that time, keeps it just the much more secure. Hope people are looking at other motives than just profits. Come on. They are just pushing their profit to the maximum giving the circumstance that right now they have no competition, that's all. They even acknowledge that now ROI is not guaranteed, you need "math and faith". So the current pricing + the greed taking over will make them sell out the units, making a huge profit, while is quite possible (but not certain) that the batch #3 buyers will not even recoup their costs. That said, I think they did a great move for themselves: they set the right price for people still buying the whole batch, in perfect correlation with the current exchange rate. If they priced the units let's say a 20% higher, maybe they would have a problem selling all the units. |
|
|
|
/damn i though it will be 2000$ or something around it i think i will pass it  . Hehe, we have to gambles now: pay 90 btc for a unit you know exists, and that you will received sometime around June (and maybe sooner!) pay 20 btc for a BFL unit you don't know if exists, and that they tell you that you will receive in July if ordered now (and most likely later!) Both of them seems quite risky to me, but if I had enough coins bought cheap, I would take both you would still be better off buying 5 bfl units in the long term, even if it were another month or two delay. That's true, the fact here is that "a two months delay" seems VERY optimistic. But with that 400% price increase of Avalon, I'm sure that a lot of people who saved money for AVALON batch three will prefer to take the gamble with BFL just because if you loose, you will loose a lot less (let's don't forget also that BFL units are supposed to be way less "power hungry"). In any case, greed is taking over. Normally, first batch should be more expensive, third batch much cheaper, because obviously ROI diminishes day by day. But as AVALON is, at the moment, the only proved legit ASIC company (apart from ASICminer, who don't sell their units), they can set up the price they want. I'm sure they will sell at least 50% of the third batch at those insane prices because, again, greed is taking over |
|
|
|
Is that $5000+ price definitive?
Looks like a bit of a radical hike to me. But I will believe they would set that price when I see it, to be honest.
Also, I'd have to pay VAT on top of that. I think I'd pass.
$1600 and I'm in.
Good luck to everybody.
Si, es definitivo. |
|
|
|
/damn i though it will be 2000$ or something around it i think i will pass it . Hehe, we have to gambles now: pay 90 btc for a unit you know exists, and that you will received sometime around June (and maybe sooner!) pay 20 btc for a BFL unit you don't know if exists, and that they tell you that you will receive in July if ordered now (and most likely later!) Both of them seems quite risky to me, but if I had enough coins bought cheap, I would take both |
|
|
|
You can buy a BFL minirig for 500 btc, and delivery would probably be in the same timeframe. You can "buy" one, yes. But you are not going to get any ROI, because no working BFL ASIC hardware exists. Avalon does exist and currently running units get an insane ROI. A bit naive, don't you think? It's clear that BFL has been developing hardware..don't let their incompetence cloud your judgment. Anyway, we're not here to talk about BFL..this is an Avalon thread silly. Seriously though, people really don't have a problem paying $7,000 for a 600w+ 80GH/s device? I also find it kind of funny that the buyers from Batch #1 paid the lowest price and are making the highest return on their investment. The Batch #2 price hike was expected...it was kind of like the " Fuck you, we're legit and you missed out on the first round". But to triple the price for Batch #3 sort of solidifies the initial notion that they are indeed using preorder funds to complete the previous orders (it also fully explains why they "shipped" 2 months ago and are still behind on their first shipment). I imagine after selling out of Batch #3 they'll have enough money to get everything back on track again (financially anyways). 1.) Batch 2 was more expensive because shipping was included in the price. Batch 1 was $1299 + shipping. 2.) BFL won't ship anytime soon. You're welcome to prove me wrong. http://bitbet.us/bet/307/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-july-1st/3.) Avalon could have mined themselves, and keep all the profit. Yet they are selling to the public. It's ludicrous to think that they would set up a ponzi like structure with their orders. Due to the insane ROI of Avalons, 88 BTC seems like a bargain still. 4.) I'd imagine Avalon customers are not newbies and have BTC beforehand way before the price spike. Batch 1 is actually more expensive than Batch 3 BTC wise. Point 1) is correct. Point 2), is pure gambling. We don't know if BFL won't ship before July. They may, or may not. Point 3), I don't see a +6.000usd or 90btc 67GHs machine as a "bargain" given the timeframe. A "bargain" is what batch #1 customers got. They are the ones doing an insane ROI. Batch #2 customers also got an excellent deal. But when the 1.500 AVALON units will be deployed we will have 3x the current difficulty, and therefore ROI will come in 2/3 months. Add to the equation more hashing power deployed by ASICminer, and ROI may come much later. If BFL also deploys a fraction of their preorders, AVALON batch #3 customers are screwed, and the stakes are high (again: 6.000usd for a 67GHs unit). I agree with point 4). If you have mined/bought hundreds of btc when the difficulty/exchange rate was lower, AVALON is definitely a bet you can afford to take. But if you have to exchange usd for btc, or you have a modest amount of btc, then it's much safer to hold on your existing coins and buy more with your fiat. Gambling most of your btc on this, or exchanging +6.000usd for an AVALON, is too risky in my opinion. It's a gamble I wouldn't take, because in any case the profit (if there's at all) will be modest. |
|
|
|
So did batch #2 start shipping on the 5th? If not, has Avalon revised batch 2 start ship date?
Have a look at the last update from ngzhang: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbbs.btcman.com%2Fforum.php%3Fmod%3Dviewthread%26tid%3D1550%26extra%3Dpage%253D13, on the second wholesale goods a matter of time: after a few months of round the clock work. Our team needs to leave, and the need to sum up the first batch of production, processing, and improved, and wait for these improved components produced. Therefore, we will delay the second batch shipment time, in late March to early April, the second batch of orders is only a small amount of shipments, from mid-April till the end of the month, we plan to ultra-high-speed quickly completing The second installment of shipment.
So I guess batch #2 has not started shipping yet I'm having a hard time understanding when they plan to ship the second batch as of now. They said they will ship a few units of batch #2 at the end of March/beginning of April, and most of batch #2 units at the end of April. Batch #3 will be probably be shipped in mid/end of May. |
|
|
|
Love when people throw around numbers like "3 month" randomly without any math.
the current difficulty is a little below 5,000,000, which a three module Avalon will produce ~6 BTC a day under these conditions.
Let's see how "3 month" ROI actually looks like.
If difficulty raises to 30,000,000 each three module Avalon will produce 1 BTC a day, enabling a break-even in 90 days.
So yes, if you think we are going to get a 6x difficulty increase between now and May then by all means, please don't purchase Avalon.
Well, how many units do you plan to deploy summing up batchs 1, 2 and 3? That's 67GHs x 1500 units, correct? Doesn't that take difficulty at least to 3x, counting that no other player (not BFL, not ASICminer, not others) starts deploying/delivering ASICs? |
|
|
|
At 1.500usd it was quite a safe gamble. At +5.000usd the expected value is negative. Unless BFL is a complete scam, and no other player delivers a single ASICs, 90btc is a losing proposal for sure.
At that price I would only buy one if I had hundreds of btc, mined/bought when the exchange rate was much lower. Which unfortunately is not the case.
You have to stop thinking in USD and think in BTC A batch #1 Avalon cost about BTC 106 when it was paid in September 2012 The question is: how long does it take to earn back the BTC at current difficulty when the machines are delivered? None of the Batch #1 Avalons (except the first 3) have earned back their value in BTC amount, but they are coming close (mine have earned BTC 78 each by now) Batch #2 machines were cheaper and Batch #3 machines will be even cheaper, but difficulty will go up dramaticly. If you break even after 100 days, you can be glad. I wish my other investments broke even in 100 days and after that started generating free profit If you want to look at the USD value, you are way better off to buy BTC and store it for 100 days, you will have a lot more 'profit' that way in USD but you will not have more BTC What is your game? You want more USD or more BTC? Choose wisely ;-) Well, thinking in btc: this has always been a gamble. For batch #1 and batch #2 customers, because they did not know if the units were real. But they knew that if they won that gamble, they would have had a high profit. For batch #3 customers, the bet is on the difficulty. As said earlier: given the current network and the total hashing power that will be deployed ONLY by AVALON, you will get your ROI in 100 days. That's a nice investment. But IF BFL and/or ASICminer deploy more hashing power... Then it's a losing proposal also if you think in BTC. |
|
|
|
Can someone please point me to the page that gives these 88BTC and 111BTC prices ?
Until then, I think mentioning these high prices for batch #3 is FUD.
The only thing I see at store.avalon-asics.com/?product=avalon-asic-unit is a rotating 'diamond'.
Perhaps someone of the Avalon team pulled a prank on us, by putting up this price for a few minutes, and is now LHAO ?
Please do your own research. That is the confirmed price. |
|
|
|
|
At the end of the day I'm sure this will benefit BFL. As this is betting, I'm sure that some of the ones that saved money for their batch #3 units, will prefer to bet on BFL... Just because is cheaper, so in case BFL finally manages to deliver, the expected profit is much higher.
And when (and if) the first BFL unit arrives to customers hands... Expect a huge rush to get one of their units.
|
|
|
|
88 btc is only 10-15 days mining with Avalon.
Yeh.. today.. What about two months forward when they actually ship ? When there will be #2 avalons minning and maybe BFLs ? If the only hashing power on the network from now on comes from AVALON, when all their 1.500 units are deployed those units will only mine 1.3btc per day, so there you have your 2/3 months ROI. If other players (BFL, but also ASICminer) deploy more hashing power, well... Your ROI can come after 10 months, or maybe... Never. To buy at +5.000usd you have to bet that: - BFL is a scam and won't deliver any unit in 2013 - No other ASIC company will deploy hashing power If the above is true, when you get your third batch unit in May/June, you will have your ROI in 2/3 months. If the above conditions fails, you can tell bye bye to your ROI. |
|
|
|
Funny thing is that they say 90 btc is estimated on "reasonably expected ROI". Yeah, "reasonably expected" if BFL is a scam, no other player delivers ANY ASIC in 2013, and ASICminer does not deploy any more THs. Even if all the above turns out to be true and AVALON is the only company deploying ASICs from now on, the ROI will be in aprox. 3 months. And believing that all the points above are true is a +5.000usd bet I'm not willing to take. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
