This isn't at all surprising given what we've just seen from Celsius and others throughout this crash.  Nobody wants their coins locked up for a decade, trust me.  I'm still trying to get my mtgox funds back.  That has to be a big driver behind this movement away from exchanges.  I'm sure once the market settles down and retail adoption starts picking up again, we'll see a reversal of this trend.  I still don't think the average person wants to hold their funds in a wallet of their own control.  Although that is probably the best way to take coins off the market...  I've heard so many stories from newbie friends getting funds lost in cyberspace.  Especially when it comes to ETH and trying to figure out cross chain swaps...

One thing Green has on his side is that he's part of the "Big 3" in the Warriors organization.  Stephen Curry has already come out and basically said that if they want to keep him happy, they'll resign Draymond to the max. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/nba-rumors-warriors-could-create-a-huge-rift-with-stephen-curry-over-draymond-green-s-situation/ar-AA10826E?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9039e762dead4e93874088df74505872

I think it's pretty clear Draymond is not a max player.  He might be extremely valuable to the Warriors given how his skillset is utilized, but he's on the downhill slide of his career and it's obvious.  He's become a liability as a shooter, and he's not getting any quicker.  I think the Warriors would actually be wise to let him go and develop Wiseman more, but I can't imagine the Warriors management doing anything that would make Curry upset.  It's likely that they'll look at any additional money they have to pay Draymond as a fee to keep Curry happy.

It looks like the market has blasted through resistance and is off to the races. I feel like we’re going to see a run up to around $30K before it takes a breather. All eyes on the mtgox funds coming soon, but it seems like the market might be able to swallow all that BTC from the looks of recent action. I’m feeling better and better about the recent low being the cycle low, but all bets are off until we see what happens next month.

Money talks. None of those guys have the draw of Mayweather and maybe now that Money is a little older Connor might have a chance to get the W and bring honor back to the UFC. Dana is a businessman so I’m sure if the numbers are right he’d make it happen.

Jake Paul is desperately trying to angle himself for this fight against Connor though. Given the personal beef between Jake and Dana, I could see him letting Connor punish Jake and get some $ from it.

Starting to eat away at that $24K resistance. I think we might see a quick hop up to $30K, but I’m still under the belief that a retest of the lows is possible when the mtgox coins are distributed. I would say that will be the time to buy, but it’s quite possible everyone else is thinking the same thing, so we’re seeing big money trying to front run retail’s re-entry by buying all throughout this dip.

Dwight Howard showed up at the WWE tryouts today.    He said he wants to play in the NBA next year but is ready to transition to life after the NBA if necessary. I still think he’s a great pickup for any team so I’d be surprised if he didn’t get a contract before the season starts. I also don’t think that will stop him from doing a little work in the WWE.

Interesting disclosure about Zion Williamson’s contract with the Pelicans. He’s financially incentivized to keep his weight down or else the amount of guaranteed money in his contract is reduced. I’m order to get the full amount, Zion needs to keep his weight + his body fat % below 295. I imagine that means he needs to stay under 280lbs. While that may seem easy, there were speculations that his weight had ballooned to over 325 while he was injured last year. 

The Lakers look increasingly likely to trade for Buddy Hield in the coming days.  That would mean they have to trade THT, which definitely hurts their chances at a Kyrie and LeBron reunion.  Given how much Buddy Heild would help fill a need for the current Lakers roster, I think this trade is likely to happen, while the Nets are likely to run it back with KD and Kyrie again, perhaps with Ben Simmons and maybe even Dwight Howard this time.  I actually like that roster a lot, but it remains to be seen if they can play together.  Personally, I think Dwight Howard and KD would be an absolute beast of a machine on both ends of the floor.

There are 9.33 million MSTR shares outstanding according to Yahoo Finance. 


Some napkin math (no idea how accurate this is, just going off some things I found on yahoo finance).

If there are 129,699 BTC held among 9,330,000 shares, that is 129699/9330000 or approximately 0.01390128617 BTC per share.

With a current share price of $273.70 and a Bitcoin value of $332.27 per share, you can see that they are also using debt of which they currently have 2.44B.

The debt comes to $261.52 per share.  They also have around $10 in cash per share, so we'll say there's $250 worth of debt and $330 worth of Bitcoin for every share of Microstrategy.  That means with no leverage (they are using a little) and no profit (they had profit of over $400M last year), you would expect to see the stock trading at around $80 per share.  This shows the market believes greatly that Microstrategy will continue investing in Bitcoin and that the Bitcoin price will rise.  Perhaps I'm overlooking something with my quick calculations, but it seems that GBTC gives you more BTC than you pay for, while MSTR gives you far less.  The difference being that GBTC has to sell BTC to pay management fees while MSTR buys BTC with income. 

Gambling houses made big money when BTC bubbled and are still making good money today.  They want to make sure that they grow their market share from here to really profit from the next cycle.  That's leading to increased advertising spending across the board.  Most recently, sponsoring youtubers like Stevewilldoit and the Nelk Boys, along with even celebrities like Drake so that they make these videos.  I doubt many of the people streaming these gambling sessions are doing so without sponsorships, so this rise shows you just how competitive of a market it is for advertisers.

Bitcoin seems to be on the rise now...  We've broken the 7-day high and are on route to break the 30-day high in the coming days.  If that happens, you can expect the market to recover to $30K relatively quickly as there is little resistance.  I suspect we'll be dealing with the mtgox coins by then, but once that's digested I could see the market recovering up to $38K before it takes another breath.  I think that would be the ETF approval's time to shine if we're going to get back into ATH territory.  This is why so many are getting bullish on Bitcoin.  The hurdles that remain are fewer and fewer.

Nah, ever since 2008 the market has done the opposite of what common sense says it should.  This is because investors know the economy is fucked and the fed will print their way out of any mess.  That means when there's bad news like a recession, it's actually good news because that means the government is going to stop tightening sooner and go back to having to stimulate the economy.  With more inflation comes higher asset prices, so investors don't care that the economy is going to hell, they care that the government is about to dump a ton of money on markets.  That means you have to get in to make $.  Bizarro world indeed.

I was under the impression that Iguodala was going to retire. He seemed in pretty bad shape at the end of last season.

Another interesting development is that Dwight Howard is in talks to join the Nets. I personally think that Dwight, Kyrie, KD, & Ben Simmons would be a nightmare for opposing teams, but we’ll see what sort of roster the Nets have once the season actually begins.

^ I saw the Suns went all in and offered a ton of picks along with their best young guys. Without Ayton though, I would agree that the Suns are out. You never know though. Maybe nobody else will be able to put together a decent package. The Suns with their offer put everything they have on the table. Not sure how many other clubs will do that for Durant.

The Golden State Warriors have shown some interest in picking up Carmelo Anthony for next season. I’m not sure how well he would fit in, but I’m sure he could do some damage off the bench. I’m thinking it would probably be his last chance to win a championship, so it wouldn’t be a bad option for him. I’d wait to see if Kyrie gets traded to the Lakers and see if I could run that back before anything else though.

As Bill Burr said so eloquently, the WNBA has been failed by women. Women aren’t supporting women’s sports the way men (or women) support men’s sports. This leads to a major difference in revenue and thus salaries for players. If women supported women’s sports more, maybe networks would start making a bigger deal about their games and people might eventually take an interest.

Even though we’ve seen quite a bit of an increase in price and less market fear, I’m not willing to say the bottom is behind us for this cycle. Especially with the mtgox coins still to be distributed. I am however fairly certain we’ll know for sure if that was the bottom by Halloween. I think come The Day of the Dead (El Dia De Los Muertos) we’ll have already seen the market bottom for this cycle.

More than “upward movement” I’d like to see the Bitcoins/altcoins I’ve purchased gain new use cases. For example, I’d love to see Call of Duty and Fortnite skins trading as NFTs on Polygon or Bitcoin having a metaverse built on the lightning network. I even think it’s cool when social media apps allow ETH NFTs to be used an PFPs. I think the more opportunities to use your crypto the better, so that’s what I’d like to see as opposed to just “upward movement.”

My guess is he’s just chillin.

The fed winding down their balance sheet seems to be a myth according to the market. It looks like assets are back to rising on bad news in expectation of the fed reversing course and issuing more stimulus. We’ll see if the fed chooses a market crash or more inflation, but with the dollar’s recent strength I’m betting on more printing. Fundamentally that’s good for Bitcoin.