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541  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is Bitcoin part of the coming mark of the beast? on: January 12, 2014, 01:19:27 PM
Christianity:

 The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh, drink his blood and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree.

My $.02.

Wink

It wasn't a snake. It was a serpent. But other than that it's not bad.

But you forgot the bit about the Jewish zombie dying a painful death on a cross because he believed he was doing it for the benefit of mankind.

I find that moving in a cold, cold world that doesn't give a shit about one another.
542  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is Bitcoin part of the coming mark of the beast? on: January 12, 2014, 01:16:10 PM
Those three double-bars are registration marks, just as QR codes have three squares. They are so readers can locate the image properly. They do not have any numeric value.


Sure.  There is no "numeric value."  However, are the lines there?  Those lines are the one thing that is uniform on all of the barcodes in the world. If we hold several barcodes next to each other and ask the question, "What is the one thing these all have in common?"  What would the answer be?  There would be a distinct pattern.  There would be two lines in the front, middle and the end that are identical.  If every person had to put one of these on their hands or foreheads to buy or sell what would be the one thing that they all had in common?  It would be this pattern.  Call it random if you want.  Pretend that the lines do not match the "6" in the second half of barcodes if you want.  You have that right but like the saying goes, I think if it "looks like a duck, walks like a duck, acts like a duck.  It is a duck."

Also, Revelation says that the number needs to be "calculated."  This implies it will not be obvious but it is more of a puzzle to be deciphered.  All the more reason that it is not obvious sixes but just hidden ones in the form of "spacers."



I understand your point.
543  Economy / Economics / Re: Does bitcoin foster economic growth or stagnation? on: January 12, 2014, 12:57:30 PM

Ha we'll see who gets to laugh last.
No just a grade school teacher lol.
I will and when I come, I will have Central Banks to back me! yeah!
and Im gone make your bitcoins worth shit so Hodl. Tongue
544  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 12, 2014, 12:55:50 PM

Ha we'll see who gets to laugh last.
No just a grade school teacher lol.
I will and when I come, I will have Central Banks to back me! yeah!
and Im gone make your bitcoins worth shit so Hodl. Tongue
545  Economy / Economics / Re: SMACKDOWN ON JANET YIDDEN on: January 12, 2014, 12:53:19 PM
Let's be clear who we are dealing with in this Thaaanos creature:


Ha we'll see who gets to laugh last.
No just a grade school teacher lol.
I will and when I come, I will have Central Banks to back me! yeah!
and Im gone make your bitcoins worth shit so Hodl.
Tongue
546  Economy / Economics / Re: the huge Problem that most people doesn't really understand on: January 12, 2014, 12:44:22 PM

I find your belief the BTC doesn't exist for the benefit of 'Banks' to be either fantastically Dishonest or hopelessly naive (I'll give the the benefit of the doubt and go with Naive).  We all know BTC and every similar coin exist to enrich the Miners, early adopters and the first-mover core businesses like exchanges (which are functionally banks), they all OPENLY admit they promote it for exactly that reason (with libertarian ideological window dressings of course).  YOU simply want to be IN THAT CLUB with them rather then outside staring in.  BitCoin's money expansion system IS exactly the kind of banana-republic kleptocratic Zimbabwean printing press you imagine the FED to be with Satoshi standing the the place of the FED chairman, the projection level here is STAGGERING.


This is FUD. Bitcoin's money expansion encourages adoption away from the fiat based money system. This is true.  However, Satoshi isn't the Fed. Not even close. The big difference in bitcoin is that bitcoins must be spent to derive economic value.

In debt based fiat, people can borrow money which creates more money out of thin air which then inflates asset prices. They don't have to spend real money to derive economic value. They can simply manufacture more wealth out of the air, which widens the gap between rich and poor. For example, borrow a billion dollars to buy residential property to drive up house prices across the country. With increased asset values, the rich can draw out equity and capital gains to spend on their lavish lifestyles.

The debt based fiat system is sick and cruel. Bitcoin is not based on debt. The current wealth discrepancies in bitcoin is at least partially caused by the uneven wealth distribution in the fiat world in the first place. The rich can buy up more bitcoins because fiat made them rich in the first place.

However, over time bitcoin will be a much fairer monetary system compared to the debt based fiat system we currently have. Bitcoins have to be spent. You can't make more up out of thin air via money printing. It is also unlikely fractional reserve banking will work under bitcoin.
547  Economy / Economics / Re: Does bitcoin foster economic growth or stagnation? on: January 12, 2014, 05:39:54 AM

If your concerned about 'mal-investment' the notion that interest rates may be encouraging activity which is not productive in a REAL sense, then you would look at rate of return vs inflation/deflation.  If returns equal or exceed inflation then the business is actually being productive. 


No, this is not true. A business can exceed the inflation rate and still be economically unproductive.

I present to you China. The economy produces millions of empty apartments that appreciate in value every year by more than double the rate of inflation. 

Rich people own these apartments and prefer to keep them empty so as not to devalue them, plus the fact that most of them are just shells without internal walls and fittings.

Debt is incurred by ordinary people to hop onto the property ladder. This pushes up asset prices further. Inequality in society worsens.

Meanwhile, poor people live in the buildings' basements, in cramped flats or ghettos. Is the Chinese economy really productive? Not in my view.
548  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: January 12, 2014, 05:11:57 AM
Yes, bitcoin is a market determined currency/reserve of liquidity existing in a market economy. Bitcoins will be backed by other things and will be the backing for other liquidity. But then we live in capitalism which is one big ponzi-pyramid scheme. Bitcoin is a market inside of market capitalism, I take your point, and it's no surprise. Until another ecomics system comes into play, bitcoin is the absolute best play going in the current pyramid scheme economy.
Yes, I agree with you. Bitcoin is the ultimate asset class right now.
549  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 12, 2014, 02:08:33 AM
It's not a matter of affordability, it's a matter of projected ROI.
When do you think it will cover >1% of the human population? Also, what if it doesn't?



Hard to say when 1% is reached. Current user base of approx. 1 million is increasing by 30% per month. You can extrapolate from there.

If it doesn't get there, I expect to see one of two things: a crypto that is better than bitcoin, in a very fundamental way. Something like totally anonymous transactions or something else very special that we need in a digital currency.

A full worldwide governmental ban is in place. In effect, prohibition, in which case the adoption rate might slow. But for prohibition to even work, usage must already exceed 1% of population right? Otherwise, you'd just be drawing attention to it unnecessarily. 

OTOH, the governments might run some kind of scare campaign saying how crazy volatile bitcoins are, how it is used for drugs, how it could corrupt your children, how deflation is bad, or that it is used to fund terrorism. This kind of campaign might go on for awhile. They might even try to associate bitcoins with some kind of bombing to try and have it banned.

So, 1% adoption rate looks, overall, quite certain to me. We just don't know when and whether it will happen as a banned currency or a widely used open system.
550  Economy / Economics / Re: Can someone explain how deflation wouldn't negatively effect productivity? on: January 12, 2014, 12:42:20 AM

Loans should cease today but central banks are not letting it happen. Central banks are suppressing long term interest rates to spur more loans, which is driving up speculative activity. Real productivity is lagging due to overcapacity and flagging consumer demand.

Yes, loans will probably still happen in bitcoin but whilst the user base is expanding at a rate of 30% per month, why borrow in bitcoins for fiat businesses? Much better to borrow fiat and invest in bitcoins.

Yes, you are correct about fiat being inflationary and that other assets are deflationary, and that bitcoin is another one of these options. The difference with bitcoin is that the bitcoin economy is expanding very rapidly. It is an extremely deflationary asset in the short run. A growth rate of 50 times in one year would only reach about 1% of the population from current user levels.

At some point bitcoin will hit terminal value. Debt based strategies in bitcoin for fiat businesses may work but I suspect not. The reason is that fiat will always be inflated up whilst bitcoin has a fixed supply and bitcoins are being lost all the time.

Now I mostly agree with you! Quantitative easing definitely artificially inflates the amount and size of loans, but the nuance there is that it "inflates" them, it doesn't outright bring them into existence when otherwise they would not have been. I also agree that with 30% monthly expansion in Bitcoin, it is currently difficult to compete with Bitcoin as a speculative investment, but I was talking about the end-game, when "terminal value" is reached, and value appreciation stabilizes at about 2-3-4% per year. The current phase of hyper-growth will be short-lived in the grand scheme of things.

Via long term interest rate suppression, I assure you total US and global debt growth is rising once again.

Re the terminal value of bitcoins. The natural deflationary rate of bitcoins, in terms of fiat dollars, will be greater than 4%, probably.

Here is why: population growth rate (say 2%) + productivity rate (2% constant over past 100 years) + bitcoin loss rate + fiat inflation (say 2% also) = at least 6% per year.

Also, the current phase of hyper growth can run a few more decades, though at slower adoption rates over time.
551  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 12, 2014, 12:28:33 AM

No. We can opt out now. If you have little faith in bitcoin, then opt out 1% of your wealth. If you have great faith in bitcoin, opt out 99% of your wealth.

We can decide anytime to opt out as much as we like. We can also opt out to other coins.

That would be like buying an extremely unreliable Tesla S believing that equals opting out of using gasoline. The Tesla S is incredibly well built yet how many people do you see opting out of using gasoline by buying one? Now imagine if the Tesla S was a lemon... Not saying bitcoin is a lemon, just that bitcoin's value reliability is very minimal. For now.

For those that can afford it why not? I would love to own a tesla, especially one that has a five year track record, appreciates in value and has a user base growing at a rate of 30% per month.

Plus the great thing is; unlike a tesla, bitcoins are not an all or nothing proposition. You can allocate as little as 1% of your wealth to it.

I find bitcoin's value plenty reliable, after all it appreciated 60 times in 2013. As far as I can see, it's regulation from central banks that are the primary obstacles. The rest of bitcoin looks perfectly reliable to me.

Even with the issue of regulation: how does one legally ban an entire asset class? I don't know of any such precedents. It would be an unprecedented, unilateral action to ban something that people want to use. Politically, I'm not sure how that is going to fly.

OTOH, they might try to tax it to death. In which case we will probably see the migration of bitcoin to non capital gains taxed jurisdictions that has no GST or value added taxes.

Either way, I see a minimum penetration of >1% of the human population, which is about a 70 times increase from the current user base.
552  Economy / Economics / Re: Can someone explain how deflation wouldn't negatively effect productivity? on: January 11, 2014, 11:32:01 PM
The two prerequisites for loan are not existing in bitcoin world:
1. you need loan to expand the production capacity, but now it is over production in major developed countries

If this were true, it would still have nothing to do with Bitcoin, and loans should cease today.

2. you need loan to issue fiat money into existence, but no loan is needed to issue bitcoin

That is one reason loans are issued, not every reason, there are still other incentives for loans to exist.

It's all very simple, I'm not sure what the confusion is. If we assume that Bitcoin will appreciate at X% per year, and a class of people with good credit are willing to borrow Bitcoin for X+5%, then a lot of people who own Bitcoin will seek the higher returns and execute those loans. At what point does Bitcoin make people completely irrational?

To create a real example of this, let's say someone came up to you in 2004 with this thing called an "iPhone" (and let's say Bitcoin was the currency). He says he needs to borrow some cash to develop it, and is willing to return 20% interest on what he borrows. Are you saying that no-one would lend this guy money and instead everyone would choose to keep earning a much lower interest?

The other thing to consider is that there already exists tonnes of deflationary asset classes. Almost every asset besides fiat is deflationary. People who have any amount of real money have never kept their wealth in fiat. This is known as a dumb investment. Fiat is only used for transactions, while wealth is stored in any number of currently available deflationary assets: commodities, stocks, etc. Bitcoin will simply be another choice of investment. Very little will change from today.


Loans should cease today but central banks are not letting it happen. Central banks are suppressing long term interest rates to spur more loans, which is driving up speculative activity. Real productivity is lagging due to overcapacity and flagging consumer demand.

Yes, loans will probably still happen in bitcoin but whilst the user base is expanding at a rate of 30% per month, why borrow in bitcoins for fiat businesses? Much better to borrow fiat and invest in bitcoins.

Yes, you are correct about fiat being inflationary and that other assets are deflationary, and that bitcoin is another one of these options. The difference with bitcoin is that the bitcoin economy is expanding very rapidly. It is an extremely deflationary asset in the short run. A growth rate of 50 times in one year would only reach about 1% of the population from current user levels.

At some point bitcoin will hit terminal value. Debt based strategies in bitcoin for fiat businesses may work but I suspect not. The reason is that fiat will always be inflated up whilst bitcoin has a fixed supply and bitcoins are being lost all the time.
553  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 11, 2014, 10:48:06 PM
Quote
OPT out of what exactly? Life? If you think btc is going to magically change society for the better you have a serious problem.  The list is endless on the number of people who benefit from a fiat system as well. You sound more like a retarded tin-foil hat nut-job then a rational human.

OPT OUT of fiat (not sure how you missed that glaring detail). Bitcoin is changing societies immensely already, people (even braindead economists) are thinking and talking about the central banksters fiat monetary RORT, it has already won regardless of what happens next.

Ad Hominem = Fail


... got any other pearls of wisdom or are we done here?

We'll I'm certainly done. Ignored.

Kungfucheez doesn't even like bitcoin. Perhaps people should ignore him instead. And Thaaanos also, a central bank clerk, masquerading as a grade school teacher.
554  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 11, 2014, 10:44:21 PM
Quote
So let me try and understand this. He's wrong because he wants to change bitcoin. Yet your not wrong because you want to change the current financial system. How is there a difference? Your doing the same thing you claim he is doing.

And it doesn't sound like he's shoving anything down your throat, it looks more like he's being reasonable and intelligent and willing to discuss the topic like an adult, and it sounds more like you are trying to push some agenda you have

No, he's not trying to change the existing financial system at all ... we are trying to replace it entirely and give people an option to OPT OUT.

Something I notice no economists are offering or advocating for at present ... rather they spend a great deal of time trying to figure out how to keep everybody corralled into their sick facist financial system of control and monitoring, cash controls, border checks, sniffer dogs, criminalising cash ... the list is endless with examples of the restrictions of financial freedom to serve their fiat masters and their wrong, failed, sick economic theories.

Opt out in the future. Maybe.

No. We can opt out now. If you have little faith in bitcoin, then opt out 1% of your wealth. If you have great faith in bitcoin, opt out 99% of your wealth.

We can decide anytime to opt out as much as we like. We can also opt out to other coins.
555  Economy / Economics / Re: Can someone explain how deflation wouldn't negatively effect productivity? on: January 11, 2014, 10:40:22 PM
It will be fine. We will have robust equity investments in bitcoin. There will be less debt based investments. For the foreseeable future, the bitcoin economy will be expanding at a much greater pace than the global economy. In this environment, debt based bitcoin investments won't make much sense. Hopefully, we forget about debt based investments altogether. Hopefully, we understand the destabilising effects of debt after the Great Depression, the tech bubble of 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008. That is my great hope.

The bolded text = very wise assessment.

Regarding debt based investments, hopefully we will not forget about them altogether. Debt is good. Unlimited debt is death. The events you point out were fueled by people who were offered and pursued unlimited debt.

Unfortunately, the human track record isn't great. After the Great Depression, laws were enacted to control debt; separation of investment and savings bank, reserve requirements etc...

One by one, all these laws were repealed by people who wanted more debt to create ever inflating assets. Some were driven by greed, some by ignorance of the consequences and others by cruel design to maintain power.

Bitcoin challenges this economic paradigm. We now have the option to renew the monetary system and replace it with something less manipulatable, and with less debts. I hope that people will come to realise that equity investments can work just as well as debt based investments.
556  Economy / Economics / Re: DEFLATION GETS A BAD NAME on: January 11, 2014, 10:25:40 PM
Just ignore him Impaler, it helps clean a thread up nicely.

As they say, do as you do, not as you say. Otherwise that makes you a hypocrite. Who are you?
557  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 11, 2014, 10:22:06 PM

OPT out of what exactly? Life? If you think btc is going to magically change society for the better you have a serious problem.  The list is endless on the number of people who benefit from a fiat system as well. You sound more like a retarded tin-foil hat nut-job then a rational human.

Yes. In fact I do think that for the first time in history, bitcoin has the potential to change society for the better.

For the first time, bitcoin removes the parasitic third party banking system/central banking/surveillance machinery.

So, we are fighting the FUD that comes from people like you. We are telling people that Bitcoin allows people to opt out of centralised systems.

This is real democracy at work. If people feel the fiat system is better for them, they can stay. For others for whom the fiat system has failed them, they can and have already voted with their wallets.

Yes, people like you will try to regulate us, belittle us, influence us. But that's okay. You are part of the machinery that has just found a superior system that you cannot easily shutdown. It is natural for you to try and fight back.

But once people realise they can leave the oppressive machinery in exchange for something fairer, more transparent and less interfering - you will have lost the war.

The list of people that benefit from fiat are the 1%. The rest of us are tired of enriching the 1%. We want change.
558  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 11, 2014, 10:09:23 PM
I suspect your inflationary alt coin argument will go something like this:

Please use my alt coin because you must trust us to manage the alt coin for the justice of all.It will be inflationary and your purchasing power will devalue over time. Thanks.

Or, you can choose bitcoin where your spending power is preserved and even increased as the bitcoin economy expands.

Lets see what people really want.

Actually no its going to be right from the start, like

THIS IS NO BITCOIN, NOTHING WATSOEVER TO DO WITH IT
NO EARLY MINE WILL MAKE YOU FILTHY RICH, LATE MINERS GET THE BEST COINS
IF YOU HODL YOU WILL WATCH THEM RUST AWAY.

and then just wait for the bitcoin bubble to burst and steal its userbase
Tongue


LOL. That is so dumb. Let me see. If I buy your special coin I can watch my wealth disintegrate.  Or I can buy bitcoin and see my wealth increase. Gee, which would I choose?

You are some kind of special stupid to think that would work. Maybe you are an economist.

You are going to wait for the bitcoin bubble to burst and steal its user base? Come at us bro. We are ready.
Ha we'll see who gets to laugh last.
No just a grade school teacher lol.
I will and when I come, I will have Central Banks to back me! yeah!
and Im gone make your bitcoins worth shit so Hodl. Tongue

Lord, help those children that this person is teaching. May they always see through his bullshit.

At least now we know who you are Thaaanos: You are a lap dog of central banking. You are in the wrong forum. Go back to where you came from.
559  Economy / Economics / Re: Can someone explain how deflation wouldn't negatively effect productivity? on: January 11, 2014, 10:02:24 PM
It will be fine. We will have robust equity investments in bitcoin. There will be less debt based investments. For the foreseeable future, the bitcoin economy will be expanding at a much greater pace than the global economy. In this environment, debt based bitcoin investments won't make much sense. Hopefully, we forget about debt based investments altogether. Hopefully, we understand the destabilising effects of debt after the Great Depression, the tech bubble of 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008. That is my great hope.
560  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are economists so afraid of Bitcoin? on: January 11, 2014, 02:51:08 PM
I suspect your inflationary alt coin argument will go something like this:

Please use my alt coin because you must trust us to manage the alt coin for the justice of all.It will be inflationary and your purchasing power will devalue over time. Thanks.

Or, you can choose bitcoin where your spending power is preserved and even increased as the bitcoin economy expands.

Lets see what people really want.

Actually no its going to be right from the start, like

THIS IS NO BITCOIN, NOTHING WATSOEVER TO DO WITH IT
NO EARLY MINE WILL MAKE YOU FILTHY RICH, LATE MINERS GET THE BEST COINS
IF YOU HODL YOU WILL WATCH THEM RUST AWAY.

and then just wait for the bitcoin bubble to burst and steal its userbase
Tongue


LOL. That is so dumb. Let me see. If I buy your special coin I can watch my wealth disintegrate.  Or I can buy bitcoin and see my wealth increase. Gee, which would I choose?

You are some kind of special stupid to think that would work. Maybe you are an economist.

You are going to wait for the bitcoin bubble to burst and steal its user base? Come at us bro. We are ready.
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