Your insights and open discussion of your whale sized trading are of course commendable. No other whale is so transparent. I am glad that this forum permitted you to find sellers at $400 off exchange.
I hope you gain as much from this forum as we others gain knowledge from you.
I don't know what I gain and how, but the truth is that being a public person is working very well for me, at least I think the benefits outweigh the negatives  |
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Quick TA update: - 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds (highest 6h volume in 30 days), conclusion: this is a clear sign of a reversal - Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $57, slippage to buy: $63, conclusion: volatility continues - Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.367 log units. The trendline is at $993 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom - Sentiment: getting better, which in this case is a positive thing - Prognosis: anything can really happen, (see my musings in other posts). I did buy, despite being heavy in BTC already. |
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I am proud to be a bagholder ever since $3... Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source BTC200 @400 off-exchange! UP, UP... |
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and by confidence , I mean confidence in the exchanges (rpitiela said something similar yesterday)
Yes, I think this is the main issue with Bitcoin now. All other news has been quite positive if you just look at the news, not the price. Luckily people forget easily and this will not delay the uptrend for years, just months. I am on the opinion that dipping below 382-400 support, even temporarily, has prolonged the plateau before uptrend. If we visit <380 area for any longer time, the uptrend is further postponed. Nothing has happened that would destroy Bitcoin's long term prospects, so I find this a buy zone and am buying. If you want to sell, PM me. |
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So... was that the floor? Or are we going to go back and retest the 340s again?
2011 we had a double bottom 4 weeks apart.I don't believe we can be such epic anymore, due to the emergence of professional investors. But you never know.. Imagine it - after this bloodbath, we rise to $600, and then decline to $330 in MAY, even lower than today. Surely Bitcoin is doomed! (Last time it was not, rather we saw a rise from $2 to $266 without significant declines, this time it would translate $330->$44,000 by the end of 2015). Bitcoin price behaves in log-scale, which means that for every 1-point move down, you lose only 90% of your money, but every 1-point move up, you gain 900%. Therefore, it is rational to be long if you can derive more benefit from multiplying your wealth than you suffer from losing the invested part of it. |
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Hey, but the support zone in 382-400 was broken intraday (it was intraday support, the "daily close" support was previously at 500 and was broken in this latest slide many days ago)! Is there anything you think it affects the big picture? My thoughts: - It is either a cause or effect of an increased probability for Bitcoin to fail, and therefore justifiable by EV (expected value) analysis. Like if the scenario weighted expected price of BTC1 in 5 years was $1M in December, now it is only $400k. It is rational that the exchange rate takes into account the decreased percentage of a home run, but I posit the EV is still orders of magnitude higher than PV, and that the ratio EV/PV (can be expressed as discount rate [I = (EV/PV)^(1/5) - 1]) has hardly gotten worse, likely better. - The price is now -0.39 below trendline, which is a new record! Last time we got this low when going down in price, was in 2011-11-15. I was pretty amused to find out the similarity in sentiment and the moves in exchange rate around the date. The upside seems better than downside at the moment, in fact around 2011-11-15 was the single most coveted buy zone since the $32 bubble. - After going so deep, the probability that it takes longer than expected to get back to the ATH is increased. I still think the baseline case is to smash the ATH this autumn, but it is not as sure as before. - Fundamentally the crypto adoption is doing good and the news about it in last months have not really been depressing, rather many have just watched the price and thought that the news are also bad, even though they're good! In absence of exchanges and agenda setting in forum boards, I would think Bitcoin is doing just fine, and so would you. |
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No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc.
Have you tried bitcoin.de? SEPA transferrals from person to person. Sometimes a bit complicated though and volume is not enormous, but you don't have to wire them your fiat at least. Too little volume. Even all the exchanges have too little volume. That's why I rarely trade and just breathe hot air. |
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Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.  Use a bot  No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc. |
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Woke up, missed all the cheap coins. |
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you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!
I doubt you have BTC100 considering your posting history, but just in case I'm mistaken, send as many as you like here and PM your wire info. Price is the Bitstamp last trade for each of the transfers. cash talks shit walks!!! =) it's me fucker, i'm calling you out on your bullshit(->just like the $700 BTC you re-nigged on) SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!! Yeah. This is what I was saying weeks ago - Bitcoin's street price will never go below 400. You will not now, not ever, be able to actually buy them as many as you want, safely, at that price or lower. Only by wiring to these exchanges and taking huge haircuts every once in a while, you are able to gamble if you can get any coins. Not currently a very bright situation but just in case someone wants to prove me wrong, the address is there. PS. No need to reply, punk. A full bitcoin is something that you dream of. |
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Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Marketcap has higher R^2 = 94.6 so it is better. |
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Can someone crunch the numbers and verify the above trendline data?
x=64 months
y= 10.4
Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap.
10^10.4 = 25B. |
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you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!
I doubt you have BTC100 considering your posting history, but just in case I'm mistaken, send as many as you like here and PM your wire info. Price is the Bitstamp last trade for each of the transfers. |
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your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.
now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...
My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all. Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again. Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please. |
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Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!? I love a good sale!  Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more! If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good |
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Who still remembers 2010?
..Bitcoin price crashed intraday from $0.444 to as low as $0.383 before recovering to $0.40.
6 months later:
Price rose from $7 to $32 in a week.
Just add 3 zeros and relax.
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The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
That can be a momentous discovery, so I needed to do it as soon as I had the time I used the monthly data in the trendline thread, multiplied by end-of-month total number of bitcoins, to have a set of 64 consecutive months' marketcaps. Then took a log of these and plotted. R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93) y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000. |
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Say what.....36% voters think btc over 500 on april 20th ? Talk about delusional.
That is soonish, and I did not vote so. But surely when it snaps back, 500 is the first line to fall, not the last. My forecast stands: "if 382 holds, 500 is breached by the end of month". |
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Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.
The sell signal is when price = 3*trend |
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This is not a chart reversal pattern, not yet anyway. The way $400 fell so easily makes me think that there is more blood to come. Why head fake @ $380 when you can do it at $350? or $250? 15 minute chart looks like a mini version of the $710 whale. $382 will be retested. It looks like a false bottom so far. The enemy of the manipulator is time.
I agree we should see some more dumping, to the mid 300's. Its very rare for a massive support to fail and not overshoot a good deal.. $383 is nothing. It took a full 2 weeks for 400 to fall, and the support zone is actually in 382-384 from the previous bottoms. More likely than not your dream will not come true, sorry. |
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