rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[bitcoinsrus]

[Queeq]

Hi Queeq, there's an EW thread here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.0

Oh, thanksvermuch.

[MahaRamana]

For reference.

We saw 378, 382, 400 and (so far) 383, over 5 months. Such support.

Ye but now its different, the rebounds were quick and sudden, the timing window to buy low used to be very short, now its like whatever, noone feels like buying

This is not true. I feel like buying, will keep buying now and if/as we go lower.

[podyx]

For reference.

We saw 378, 382, 400 and (so far) 383, over 5 months. Such support.

Ye but now its different, the rebounds were quick and sudden, the timing window to buy low used to be very short, now its like whatever, noone feels like buying

Doesn't this imply we are at the bottom?

Remember, the big boys are the one who reap the profits in this market
The speculators/sheeple only follow

[conspirosphere.tk]

The speculators/sheeple only follow

"By the time the fool has learned the game, the players have dispersed." ~Ashanti proverb

"One who causes others misfortune also teaches them wisdom." ~ African proverb

"You become wise when you begin to run out of money." ~ Ghana

[Trolololo]

2278 BTC pumped to break the 400 wall:



This is not everybody panicking.

[rpietila]

For reference.

We saw 378, 382, 400 and (so far) 383, over 5 months. Such support.

Ye but now its different, the rebounds were quick and sudden, the timing window to buy low used to be very short, now its like whatever, noone feels like buying

This is not true. I feel like buying, will keep buying now and if/as we go lower.

I feel like buying very much. If I did not restrict myself, my every post would be "if I empty the kitty of my every company and bitcoin price goes to $X, I can buy this and this many THOUSANDS of bitcoins". (Now it's only every other post saying it..)

Please anyone sell me BTC500 at market, off-exchange..?

[BldSwtTrs]

Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?

[ArticMine]

...

Please anyone sell me BTC500 at market, off-exchange..?

I cannot help. I am holding although these bears are making it very tempting also for me to buy. I would suggest Second Market https://www.secondmarket.com/. They may be able to help.

Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.

[rpietila]

Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.

The sell signal is when price = 3*trend

[ArticMine]

Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.

The sell signal is when price = 3*trend

I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.

[MahaRamana]

Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?

Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.

[MahaRamana]

Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.

The sell signal is when price = 3*trend

I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.

the trend is never below where it should be, it is just a trend. The price can be below the trend.
Sell signal level has nothing to do with current price. It is predefined. It is only a function of time and trend (sell signal happens when current price = trend price * 3)

[BldSwtTrs]

Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?

Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.

Well I will only risk some BTC, and by definition I should only have in BTC what I can afford to lose, so all is OK

[MahaRamana]

Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?

Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.

Well I will only risk some BTC, and by definition I should only have in BTC what I can afford to lose, so all is OK

Sorry, it is more clear. In my opinion BTC is enough of a ride without margin. You could wipe out ALL your bitcoins very fast and be left standing when the real rise starts. Don't forget that we are looking at a 4 months decline right now and that on a pure TA, things don't look good. Fundamentals are very good, but in your position I would wait for clear reversal signals before going on margin. Catching a falling knife is risky, catching a falling knife while jumping is, well yes, reckless.

[ArticMine]

Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.

The sell signal is when price = 3*trend

I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.

the trend is never below where it should be, it is just a trend. The price can be below the trend.
Sell signal level has nothing to do with current price. It is predefined. It is only a function of time and trend (sell signal happens when current price = trend price * 3)

The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.

[rpietila]

The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.

That can be a momentous discovery, so I needed to do it as soon as I had the time

I used the monthly data in the trendline thread, multiplied by end-of-month total number of bitcoins, to have a set of 64 consecutive months' marketcaps. Then took a log of these and plotted.

R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.

[BitChick]

The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.

That can be a momentous discovery, so I needed to do it as soon as I had the time

I used the monthly data in the trendline thread, multiplied by end-of-month total number of bitcoins, to have a set of 64 consecutive months' marketcaps. Then took a log of these and plotted.

R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.

Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!? 

I love a good sale! 

[rpietila]

Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!? 

I love a good sale! 

Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!

If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good 

[birr]

Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3!  Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.