Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonzie]

Did Russia ban Bitcoin again?

[Davyd05]

its pretty funny to see asia above stamp lool

[rpietila]

your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.

now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now  it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...

My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.

Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.

Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please.

[MinermanNC]

I think we see back over 400 by tonight, really everyone was fearing when the big China day came (and now its here) it would be the end of BTC for a while anyways.....and were only down 50 bux??? all day now......I guess make what ya want of it.... Ill just be glad when the China fears are flushed out so we can begin to move forward and focus on all the positives as of late for Crypto again

You think this was it? Watch out, as you might be proven very wrong. Nothing is certain at this stage.

Yes I agree, but we have had weeks of anticipation of what impact China would have,,, we all knew it was coming and yes we have suffered a 150ish drop since all the bad news started really sinking in,,, the previous drops can be attributed to MT Gox and alike and tons of fud  to boot. I still have some faith left that the underlying concept of BTC is strong, alive and well and will continue on and grow and we will recover robustly. Keep Hodling  

I'm not sure what you mean by this. We all knew any news coming out of China would lower BTC price. No one knew if China would ban BTC. As of this time, it's still not banned. If it is, the price will go down more.

Well if anyone at this point is still holding out hope that China wont'/hasn't banned BTC is just kidding themselves, In my mind it may as well be banned. I not going to buy or sell based on hope that its not already.

[fonzie]

Stamp and co. are in dump mood but still waiting for the starting signal from China.
BTC-E looks like Gox in it´s last days.

I think there  won't be any further movements until, 8-10am ish in China!  (5 or so hours)

There is quite often a small rally in huobi / China at this time.  On all weekdays.  I noticed this, as a bear it really pissed me off.  No matter the mood there always seems to be this small rally at this time.

The dumping is BTC-e at the moment.  some bear / whale dumping and this death bot that has been popping up for the last few weeks.


 

I´m not sure Bitstamp/Finex and BTC-e are makin their own moves, normally they blindly follow Huobi. But it looks as they don´t want to wait today. Stamp 6$ below Huobi already.
Maybe a surprise dump.

[Chalkbot]

[fonzie]

BYE BYE LTC  

[BBmodBB]

your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.

now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now  it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...

My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.

Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.

Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please.

you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!

[jonoiv]

Huobi is still £10 higher than it was last week.

2410 on 3rd April
2440 now

BTCe
410 on 3rd April
375 now


at the moment it's difficult to see this as a China only thing.  

[magicmexican]

dat btc-e action is fishy as hell

[seleme]

I bought 10 btc at Btc-e at 375. Couldn't resist 

[molecular]

hm why is btc-e going full retard

traders on btc-e are a little more emotional and have more happy trigger fingers than on bitstamp/bitfinex.

[molecular]

Guys really now, do you really think that all those investors which put millions of dollars into the infrastructure, hired developers and sponsored start ups will let bitcoin die and go to 0 just because China banned it ?

it's precisely them who are pulling the price down. need to stack more cheap cash

this is quite possible

[BBmodBB]

Huobi is still £10 higher than it was last week.

2410 on 3rd April
2440 now

BTCe
410 on 3rd April
375 now


at the moment it's difficult to see this as a China only thing.  

you all still don't get it? lolololll =) *think pennystocks!!!* ~ $100 BTC could happen easy!!!

[MinermanNC]

Wait:

Just imagine that the owner of the stolen Gox coins would jump in right now and start his big dump.
It's a scenario, if you were to take into account that the Gox coins haven't been spent yet. Such a bazooka would sent us all the way back to the double digits.

Don't talk like that  lol

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Wait:

Just imagine that the owner of the stolen Gox coins would jump in right now and start his big dump.
It's a scenario, if you were to take into account that the Gox coins haven't been spent yet. Such a bazooka would sent us all the way back to the double digits.

Don't talk like that  lol

Please do, that would be quite awesome.

[jackiedragon]

I´m in a good mood the Price will soon rise again

[JorgeStolfi]

You're awfully keen to revel in schadenfreude at the losses of others for someone who purports to be so concerned for the small investor.

Perhaps I picked the wrong time to post that, sorry.  

However, sweet bogus theories cannot be good for anyone.  Investors should be aware of the limitations (to put it mildly) of such extrapolations.  

For Enron, OGX, MtGOX, and many other examples like Worldcom, the trends eventually changed because of external events that obviously could not be predicted by looking at the price history.

Same with Bitcoin.  The major rallies and crashes were not generated by some mathematical property of bitcoin or of its price; they had obvious external causes whose timing and effect could not be predicted.   One cannot assume that there will be a major negative event and a major positive one every so many months, or that they will affect the price always by X% over the next Y days/weeks/years.

Exponential growth can be due to "contagion" (including media attention), re-investment of profits into production capacity, etc.

There are some patterns in price charts that have a logical explanation, like the bounceback after an isolated "whale" sale or buy.   Also rallies and crashes are usually followed by a few large oscillations until the price stabilizes, and in the absence of major external  the price remains stable.  In each of these cases, the market itself is reacting, without external inputs, to a singe major external event isolated in time.  But it is not reasonable to expect that those external events will follow some pattern, too.

Since December, bitcoin has been in a phase of persistent gradual decline combined with some sudden negative steps, and a couple of positive ones.  Each of these features has external causes.  Some are known, some are less clear (such as the March/03 jump and the persistent decline).    To guess what the price will do next requires guessing whether the external cause of the decline will continue, and what other events will happen next.

EDIT: exponential growth is not endogenous but exogenous of course.

[MinermanNC]

Huobi is still £10 higher than it was last week.

2410 on 3rd April
2440 now

BTCe
410 on 3rd April
375 now


at the moment it's difficult to see this as a China only thing.  

you all still don't get it? lolololll =) *think pennystocks!!!* ~ $100 BTC could happen easy!!!

I see 100 coin, I'm going to be all over it, well as much as I can afford to buy

[smoothie]

your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.

now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now  it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...

My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.

Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.

Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please.

you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!

I'll buy 100BTC from you off exchange.