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5461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who here has bought sub 225 in the past couple days? on: August 20, 2015, 09:49:14 PM
Nearly everyone who has argued with me has ended up eating their words later.

You confuse ego with leadership. I am very cordial with people, but leaders don't lead into mud just so they can placate the stragglers and losers.

I give you the readers a "heads up" that your bullishness is the sign that the bottom has not been reached yet. The bottom comes when you the bullish fools finally in desperation go short. Then the smart money covers their short position, you fools are bankrupted, and the next bull market starts.

You are the one who is throwing your ignorance around and hurting readers.

And why do you want to know where I hold my accounts...

As more people realize it is safer to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low coming.

Where do you trade? I'm interested in hearing the details of your short position.

5462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who here has bought sub 225 in the past couple days? on: August 20, 2015, 09:39:58 PM
The retards who are buying now and not selling are going to lose and end up selling below $100.

Anyone so egotistical and disdainful toward the crowd he is attempting to give "advice" to should be dismissed. No wonder nobody wants to collaborate with you, Anonymint.

Fools deserve their fate. Please dismiss. Smart money recognizes valid logic. That is how we end up with winners and losers.

Your emotional problem is your problem, not mine. Are you sure you are a man? (check down there)

You confuse knowledge with ego. (did you ever consider I was trying to help you fool  Huh)
5463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Just Crashed on: August 20, 2015, 09:35:56 PM
The retards who are buying now and not selling are going to lose and end up selling below $100.

But past happenings do not guarantee future happenings... You may have been right once, twice or even more times, but this does not mean you will be right this time.. Wink

I've always been correct on BTC price in terms of the major moves. I was even correct in early 2013 when at $10 I gave my thumbs up to going all in.

Well in May I wrote in several Economics -> Speculation threads that BTC would rise from the low $200s to $315, then it would crash back down to eventually below $150 (and probably to double-digits) no later than sometime after October.

I reiterated these points over the past weeks in the Economics -> Speculation -> PnF and Economics -> Speculation -> Free Money threads. Even a few hours before the crash I reiterated these points again that everyone should have been short since $315.

The bottom in the BTC price will come in Spring 2016, and it will be back below $100, perhaps even below $50.

After that, we will start a new bull market that will make investors rich.

If you weren't dumb, you'd learn to stop ignoring me. You'd be clicking my Profile and reading all my archive of posts.

But you are dumb and lazy, so you won't do that. And so you will remain ignorant. And I sort of like that, don't you?

And last but certainly not least, sue your mother and fuck her too, because she brought your dumb ass into this world.  Tongue

(that is if you think you should abrogate your responsibility and sue anyone for the market price movements of BTC)

Everyone should have been short since $315 which is what I said first. And I should have stuck to that. Predicting the short-term moves is going to get you stopped out and you'll miss the entire decline. Everyone who did not short at $315 has already lost the decline to $254.



PS: I've decided to risk a portion of my BTCs following the advice you gave on Klee's thread. As stated there, I don't feel comfortable about it, but more and more I am convinced that your approach of BTC's is essentially a "gold-like" commodity and should be treated like one, is true. Undecided

As more people capitulate to the reality that it is better to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low.

This bounce back up is one more gift to go short before it is too late. Again the "Only the Date is Unknown". I don't know how far up the price will reach before crashing again or the timing. Volatility will increase.

The "End of Government" can mean many things. It can mean we still have governments exerting totalitarianism with the chaos of loss of rule of law (i.e. rampant corruption in government). Again study my upthread review of the decades long chaotic collapse of the Western Roman empire.

The government won't entirely disappear any time soon. You'll wish they would. In Rome it got so bad that the people just abandoned their land because the government was so oppressive. Later there was no government in Rome and only cows grazing in the city. But first the totalitarianism.

Nearly everyone who has argued with me has ended up eating their words later.

You confuse ego with leadership. I am very cordial with people, but leaders don't lead into mud just so they can placate the stragglers and losers.

I give you the readers a "heads up" that your bullishness is the sign that the bottom has not been reached yet. The bottom comes when you the bullish fools finally in desperation go short. Then the smart money covers their short position, you fools are bankrupted, and the next bull market starts.

You are the one who is throwing your ignorance around and hurting readers.
5464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who here has bought sub 225 in the past couple days? on: August 20, 2015, 09:34:49 PM
The retards who are buying now and not selling are going to lose and end up selling below $100.

But past happenings do not guarantee future happenings... You may have been right once, twice or even more times, but this does not mean you will be right this time.. Wink

I've always been correct on BTC price in terms of the major moves. I was even correct in early 2013 when at $10 I gave my thumbs up to going all in.

Well in May I wrote in several Economics -> Speculation threads that BTC would rise from the low $200s to $315, then it would crash back down to eventually below $150 (and probably to double-digits) no later than sometime after October.

I reiterated these points over the past weeks in the Economics -> Speculation -> PnF and Economics -> Speculation -> Free Money threads. Even a few hours before the crash I reiterated these points again that everyone should have been short since $315.

The bottom in the BTC price will come in Spring 2016, and it will be back below $100, perhaps even below $50.

After that, we will start a new bull market that will make investors rich.

If you weren't dumb, you'd learn to stop ignoring me. You'd be clicking my Profile and reading all my archive of posts.

But you are dumb and lazy, so you won't do that. And so you will remain ignorant. And I sort of like that, don't you?

And last but certainly not least, sue your mother and fuck her too, because she brought your dumb ass into this world.  Tongue

(that is if you think you should abrogate your responsibility and sue anyone for the market price movements of BTC)

Everyone should have been short since $315 which is what I said first. And I should have stuck to that. Predicting the short-term moves is going to get you stopped out and you'll miss the entire decline. Everyone who did not short at $315 has already lost the decline to $254.



PS: I've decided to risk a portion of my BTCs following the advice you gave on Klee's thread. As stated there, I don't feel comfortable about it, but more and more I am convinced that your approach of BTC's is essentially a "gold-like" commodity and should be treated like one, is true. Undecided

As more people capitulate to the reality that it is better to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low.

This bounce back up is one more gift to go short before it is too late. Again the "Only the Date is Unknown". I don't know how far up the price will reach before crashing again or the timing. Volatility will increase.

The "End of Government" can mean many things. It can mean we still have governments exerting totalitarianism with the chaos of loss of rule of law (i.e. rampant corruption in government). Again study my upthread review of the decades long chaotic collapse of the Western Roman empire.

The government won't entirely disappear any time soon. You'll wish they would. In Rome it got so bad that the people just abandoned their land because the government was so oppressive. Later there was no government in Rome and only cows grazing in the city. But first the totalitarianism.
5465  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 09:19:01 PM
Those propositions are impracticable. (See blue text below.)

I mean "everyone" reading here. Of course the masses will fall into the NWO eugenics. Nature must cull the herd. What is the problem what that? It is life. Life requires death.
5466  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 09:04:59 PM
Our ability as a nation to decide about ANYTHING ended the moment our elected government decided that would be a disaster if we leave the EU. Maybe they know better; but that's not what people elected them for.  Undecided

...

Everyone needs to jump ship from that sinking top-down morass into the individually autonomous (grass roots, bottom-up) Knowledge Age.

macsga, always democracy is a power vacuum. And thus yes the elite will take control...

The only way I can see to avoid that is to use technological innovation to remove the need for consensus... Soon we will have this technology.
5467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. [NooNooPol] on: August 20, 2015, 08:49:54 PM
Dude, you have posted 2,300 messages in 4 months.

And not most of them in that bitch slapping thread.

I post for example highly technical and informative discussion such as this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1152106.msg12134345#msg12134345

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1152106.msg12139754#msg12139754

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1139756.msg12191471#msg12191471

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12166760#msg12166760

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg12187867#msg12187867

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1156627.msg12182866#msg12182866

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12180624#msg12180624

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12175568#msg12175568

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1133160.msg12181350#msg12181350

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1156436.msg12180184#msg12180184

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12174027#msg12174027

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12173116#msg12173116

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg12171519#msg12171519

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg12164210#msg12164210

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12163807#msg12163807

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12162883#msg12162883

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg12162646#msg12162646

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12159136#msg12159136

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12157230#msg12157230

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12157155#msg12157155

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg12156965#msg12156965

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1128521.msg12153302#msg12153302

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg12151569#msg12151569

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg12149777#msg12149777

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1151565.msg12147891#msg12147891
5468  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 08:32:15 PM
macsga, always democracy is a power vacuum. And thus yes the elite will take control of Bitcoin. No doubt in my mind.

The only way I can see to avoid that is to use technological innovation to remove the need for consensus in crypto currency. Such as eliminating the 51% attack vector and enabling users to burn their coins and transfer them to another chain, so that value becomes orthogonal to chain protocol. Soon we will have this technology.

5469  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 08:31:58 PM
You can't spend a $220 bill at a fast food drive-in in Belgium:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36159

I have to make a refutation regarding this. Mostly companies don't accept these kind of bills because they don't got enough change in store or they won't have enough change for the next customers. However, these prohibition signs are not new, most gas stations over here (the Netherlands) have them as well. Also, 200E and 500E are rarely used, people get some weird look on their face if they see them. This is probably due to the bank itself or the casino basically being the only places to obtain these kind of bills, since ATM's over here won't give you bills bigger than 50E.

I also had that thought, which is why I wrote $220. That seems excessive to spend at a drive-in fast food establishment.

MA has a tendency to ruin his reputation by exaggerating shit like this. He has done this numerous times.
5470  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: August 20, 2015, 08:29:42 PM
Volatility is skyrocketing (see the dire MA blog posts linked below). Gold making its perhaps last lower high, because the crash below $1000. Consider this bounce for BTC as a last chance to head for the exits before all hell breaks loose. Sure maybe we make a nosebleed run for $300 again, but who wants to risk being long now?

As more people realize it is safer to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low coming.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36215

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36205

Nearly everyone who has argued with me has ended up eating their words later.

You confuse ego with leadership. I am very cordial with people, but leaders don't lead into mud just so they can placate the stragglers and losers.

I give you the readers a "heads up" that your bullishness is the sign that the bottom has not been reached yet. The bottom comes when you the bullish fools finally in desperation go short. Then the smart money covers their short position, you fools are bankrupted, and the next bull market starts.

You are the one who is throwing your ignorance around and hurting readers.
5471  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: August 20, 2015, 08:29:09 PM
Joseph Stiglitz on Greece's new memorandum:

“Deep-seatedly wrong” economic thinking is killing Greece

Among the puzzling aspects of the MoU are demands for reforms on things seemingly trivial as milk. While pensioners are eating out of garbage cans, the troika has been haggling over how old a carton of milk can be if it is to be labeled “fresh.” Stiglitz observes that if you look closely you see that special interests — in this case the big dairy companies of Holland — appear to be behind the reforms. Dutch milk sellers would prefer that their milk, which travels long distances to reach Greece, be allowed to call itself fresh — a move that will only hurt local dairies. By discouraging local production, the MoU paves the way for even more Greek unemployment and less demand for goods and services — hardly a recipe for economic health. (The chairman of the Eurogroup , it may be worth noting, is Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance minister).

http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/joseph-stiglitz-deep-seatedly-wrong-economic-thinking-is-killing-greece

I told you the NWO plan is a the largest capitalists trying to eliminate competition as the Industrial Age sinks into irrelevance.

Everyone needs to jump ship from that sinking top-down morass into the individually autonomous (grass roots, bottom-up) Knowledge Age.



Our ability as a nation to decide about ANYTHING ended the moment our elected government decided that would be a disaster if we leave the EU. Maybe they know better; but that's not what people elected them for.  Undecided

...

Everyone needs to jump ship from that sinking top-down morass into the individually autonomous (grass roots, bottom-up) Knowledge Age.

macsga, always democracy is a power vacuum. And thus yes the elite will take control...

The only way I can see to avoid that is to use technological innovation to remove the need for consensus... Soon we will have this technology.
5472  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: August 20, 2015, 08:28:00 PM
Joseph Stiglitz on Greece's new memorandum:

“Deep-seatedly wrong” economic thinking is killing Greece

Among the puzzling aspects of the MoU are demands for reforms on things seemingly trivial as milk. While pensioners are eating out of garbage cans, the troika has been haggling over how old a carton of milk can be if it is to be labeled “fresh.” Stiglitz observes that if you look closely you see that special interests — in this case the big dairy companies of Holland — appear to be behind the reforms. Dutch milk sellers would prefer that their milk, which travels long distances to reach Greece, be allowed to call itself fresh — a move that will only hurt local dairies. By discouraging local production, the MoU paves the way for even more Greek unemployment and less demand for goods and services — hardly a recipe for economic health. (The chairman of the Eurogroup , it may be worth noting, is Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance minister).

http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/joseph-stiglitz-deep-seatedly-wrong-economic-thinking-is-killing-greece

I told you the NWO plan is a the largest capitalists trying to eliminate competition as the Industrial Age sinks into irrelevance.

Everyone needs to jump ship from that sinking top-down morass into the individually autonomous (grass roots, bottom-up) Knowledge Age.
5473  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: August 20, 2015, 08:24:51 PM
Volatility is skyrocketing (see the dire MA blog posts linked below). Gold making its perhaps last lower high, because the crash below $1000. Consider this bounce for BTC as a last chance to head for the exits before all hell breaks loose. Sure maybe we make a nosebleed run for $300 again, but who wants to risk being long now?

As more people realize it is safer to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low coming.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36215

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36205

Nearly everyone who has argued with me has ended up eating their words later.

You confuse ego with leadership. I am very cordial with people, but leaders don't lead into mud just so they can placate the stragglers and losers.

I give you the readers a "heads up" that your bullishness is the sign that the bottom has not been reached yet. The bottom comes when you the bullish fools finally in desperation go short. Then the smart money covers their short position, you fools are bankrupted, and the next bull market starts.

You are the one who is throwing your ignorance around and hurting readers.
5474  Economy / Speculation / Re: PnF TA on: August 20, 2015, 08:21:35 PM
macsga, always democracy is a power vacuum. And thus yes the elite will take control of Bitcoin. No doubt in my mind.

The only way I can see to avoid that is to use technological innovation to remove the need for consensus in crypto currency. Such as eliminating the 51% attack vector and enabling users to burn their coins and transfer them to another chain, so that value becomes orthogonal to chain protocol. Soon we will have this technology.
5475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. [NooNooPol] on: August 20, 2015, 08:13:09 PM
and just what is off topic in a thread that's lasted 4 years and has 1.45M views and 31K posts?  for the several days right before it got locked it was racking up about 7000 views per day.  that's how popular it was.  but that's the pt isn't it?  stop the popularity before it gets out of hand.

Yeah you proved you could stir up the worst trait in men: their ego (Bitcointalk "fix") addiction to circle jerking argument festivals where productivity falls into a black hole and no on the outside dares read lest they fall into the same pit.

Luckily I had the self-discipline to just tune out. Well I haven't watched TV for decades, don't drink alcohol, don't even eat carbohydrates, nor drink anything other than water. So I guess it must require a supernatural self-discipline to avoid your spell.

I feel pity for those here who continue wasting their time posting here. Don't these people have anything productive to do with their lives!

What a crying shame.

If the thread died with my post, that would be an amazing feat of humanity. I would be flabbergast. It won't.
5476  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 02:33:44 PM
From a private message:

I hate complicated.

I want to explain even very complex topics or math in a way a layman could understand.

I am very much into simplification via unification, i.e. paradigm shifts.

I am an artist not just an engineer. For me programming is painting on a canvass. I want it to be beautiful visually and semantically.

To take away my instruments of creativity in order to satisfy some rigid legacies, is like telling an artist he can't paint with non-standard brushes.

Conformance is a four letter word. Innovation and clever interoption are my sword.

Love me or hate me or ignore me or join me. That is the question.
5477  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: August 20, 2015, 12:04:51 PM
You can't spend a $220 bill at a fast food drive-in in Belgium:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36159
5478  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: August 20, 2015, 12:00:45 PM
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35990

Quote
Things will not play out as many people are assuming. This shift [confluence of various cycles all at same time] comes around perhaps once every 309.6 years, so without an extensive database, it is impossible to see what is even possible other than pure speculation. This will not be the typical event. We have a collapse in liquidity and a rise in regulation that is far from stable. Every action government takes has played a role in what is coming.

What I will say is this: the immediate target 2015.75 happens to be very critical. In fact, the target date is the birth of a whole new wave of capitalism that began in 1706. The British might recognize that date as two major events were set in motion. This began the movement toward creating the United Kingdom with the merger of England and Scotland following the defeat of the French on May 23, 1706 at the Battle of Ramillies where the English, Dutch, German, Swiss, and Scottish troops led by John Churchill, 1st Duke of Marlborough, joined forced. That led to July 22, the Treaty of Union between Scotland and England in London for ratification by the national legislatures. Then on September 7, 1706, the War of Spanish Succession began with the Battle of Turin where the forces of Austria and Savoy defeated the French.

The second major event was when the English Parliament established the first turnpike trusts, which began road construction under the privatization and the control of trustees drawn from local landowners and traders. The turnpike trusts borrowed capital for the road maintenance using the security of future tolls to be collected. For the next 150 years, this became the common method to build infrastructure based upon private investment rather than taxation.

If we flip back 309.6 years before 1706, we come to the birth of capitalism when the Black Plague wiped out about half the population, initiating a return to wages and the end of serfdom (not in Russia). So this is the third wave, and the rule of three is the reaction wave. This should be an interesting shift, which will not make things exactly normal. We will need Socrates to look at this whole mess objectively and without bias.
5479  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] Monero Improvement Technical Discussion on: August 20, 2015, 11:40:49 AM
the 40 Gbytes/sec for ASIC on

It was gigabits, btw. The main application for this stuff seems to be comm gear so usually quoted in bits (but yes an OOM faster than Intel in-CPU)

But it wasn't stated whether it also consumed an OOM more electricity (than the Intel in-CPU).
5480  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] Monero Improvement Technical Discussion on: August 20, 2015, 09:49:43 AM
Scrypt uses the very efficient Salsa (ChaCha is nearly identical) one-way hash from Bernstein (not SHA256) which has a very low count of ALU operations. Afaik, Litecoin (which uses Scrypt) has ASICs which I assume have displaced CPU and GPU mining. I haven't been following Litecoin since the ASICs were rumored to be released.

Yes I was relating to the gains from SHA256 ASICs. I'm less familiar with Scrypt ASICs in all matters (how much they cost, how much performance they gain, etc.)

But as you are aware Scrypt is designed in a manner that makes the TMTO particularly trivial to implement. Even then it isn't necessarily the case that a Scrypt ASIC would pay off (as you said). It seems they do but that is an empirical result that depends on the particulars of the algorithm. It is not the case that the lookup table approach for read-write scratchpads is equally trivial. Still feasible, possibly, but it isn't obvious.

Indeed converting a more compute intensive variant that makes it less trivial to convert to compute bound thus makes it compute bound. Hehe. See where I ended up?

Even if you are using dedicated hardware, to some extent it must be diluting the benefit of doing so by accessing them through generalized pipelines, 3 levels of caches (L1, L2, L3), and all the glue logic to make all those parts of the CPU work for the general purpose use case of the CPU. It is very unlikely that you've been able to isolate such that you are only activating the same number of transistors that the ASIC would for the specialized silicon.

Clearly true, but less clear there is anything yielding "orders of magnitude" here, nor, again, that the gain is enough to offset the costs of trying to reduce latency.

Apologies perhaps the plurality on "orders" in my prior post is what you meant by being an overly generalized statement and in that case you are literally correct.

When I write orders in plural form, I include the singular form as one of the applicable cases.

I am more inclined to believe both Cryptonite and my pure AES-NI are within 1 - 2 orders of magnitude of any possible ASIC optimization, in terms of the relevant parameters of Hash/watt and Hash/$capital outlaw.

I would only argue that I feel a more complex approach such that Cryptonite uses, has a greater risk of slipping a bit maybe between 1 and 2 orders range. Again we are just making very rough guesses based on plausible theories.

We try to minimize the advantage the ASIC will have, but we can not be at parity with the ASIC

Of course, it is a given that you can take some things off the chip and yield an ASIC with better marginal economics. But equally ASICs can (probably) never equal the economies of scale of general purpose CPUs, either on production or R&D. So the actual numbers matter. If If you can convincingly show orders of magnitude gain, then it is easy to dismiss the rest. Otherwise not.

I almost mentioned Intel's superior fabs, but I didn't because well for one thing Intel has been failing to meet deadlines recent years. Moore's law appears to be failing.

If we are talking about a $4 billion Bitcoin market cap then yeah. But if we are talking about a $10 trillion crypto-coin world, then maybe not so any more.

Agreed the devil is in the details.

I think what I am trying to argue is that I've hoped to stay below 2 orders-of-magnitude advantage for the ASIC and by being very conservative with which CPU features are combined, then hopefully less than 1 order-of-magnitude. And that is enough for me in my consensus network design, because I don't need economic parity with ASICs in order to eliminate the profitability of ASICs in my holistic coin design.

And I am saying that the extra CPU features that Cryptonite is leveraging seem to add more risk, not less (not only risk of ASICs but risk that someone else found a way to optimize the source code). So I opted for simplicity and clarity instead. AES benchmarks against ASICs are published. Cryptonite versus ASIC benchmarks don't exist. I prefer the marketing argument that is easier to support.

In order to make it so it is not economical for the ASIC to convert the latency bound to compute bound, you end up making your "memory-hard" hash compute bound in the first place! That was a major epiphany.

I don't think you have shown it is economical, only that it is possible. In fact you have specifically agreed that the gain from ASICs vs. in-CPU dedicate circuits is likely relatively small, which is why you propose using the in-CPU circuits!

I think perhaps you are missing my point. In order to make it so it is only "possible" and not likely for the ASIC to convert the latency bound (of the CPU hash) to compute bound, then it appears it is likely to end up making the CPU hash compute bound any way by adding more computation between latency accesses, as I believe Cryptonite has done. Haven't benchmarked it though.

So that is one reason why I discarded all that latency bound circuitry and just K.I.S.S. on the documented less than 1 order-of-magnitude advantage for ASICs w.r.t. to AES-NI. And then I also did one innovation better than that (secret).

Thus why waste the time pretending the memory-hard complexity is helping you. If anything it is likely hurting you. Just go directly to using AES-NI for the hash. Which is what I did in spades.

Because I think this more clearly loses to economies of scale by replicating the relatively small AES hardware many, many times and getting rid of overhead of packaging, being instructions decoded inside a CPU (you can never eliminate all overhead from that regardless of how "tight" your algorithm) inside a computer (memory, fans, batteries, I/O, etc.) with a relatively tiny hash rate compared to a chip with 1000x AES circuits inside a mining rig with 100 chips.

In terms of Hashes/capital outlaw yes. But not necessarily true for Hashes/watt.

Even you admitted upthread that the 40 Gbytes/sec for ASIC on AES might not be an order-of-magnitude advantage in terms of Hashes/watt. I had seen some stats on relative Hashes/watt and I've forgotten what they said. Will need to dig my past notes for it.

But for our application, I wasn't concerned about the capital cost because the user has a $0 capital cost because they already own a CPU.

I was supremely focused on the Hashes/watt, because I know if I can get users to mine, and they don't notice a 1% increase in their electricity bill, then their Hashes/watt is infinite.

Also so that the rest of the user's CPU isn't tied up by the hashing, so they can mine and work simultaneously.

And thus I make ASICs relatively unprofitable. They may still be able to make a "profit" if the coin value is rising to level of hashrate invested (which would so awesome if you have 100 million users mining), but the ASICs can not likely dominate the network hashrate. Or at least they can't make it totally worthless for a user to mine, if there is perceived value to microtransactions and users don't want to hassle with an exchange just to use a service they want that only accepts microtransactions. But even that is not the incentive I count on to get users to mine.

There is a lot of holistic economics involved in designing your proof-of-work hash. It is very complex.

Memory gives physical size (and also its own cost, but mostly just size), which makes it impossible to replicate to whatever arbitrary degree is needed to amortize product-type and packaging overhead.

Agreed if Hashes/capital outlaw is your objective but you may also worse your relative (to ASIC) Hashes/watt. Maybe not, but again there are no Cryptonite vs. ASIC benchmarks so we can't know. There are AES benchmarks.

There may be economic arguments apart from mining efficiency why people mine on computers vs. minings rigs. But if those exist they must not exclusively rely on pure raw efficiency (because that will clearly lose by the argument in the previous paragraph) but to efficiency being "close enough" for the other factors to come into play. So again, the number matter. And once you resort to "close enough" then yet again numbers matter.

Yup. Well stated to point out that as get closer to parity on efficiencies then all sorts of game theory economic scenarios come into play. That is what I meant by it is complex.

Anyway, I won't be surprised to be proven "wrong" (not really wrong because I'm not saying any of this won't work, just that it isn't clear that it will work) but I will be surprised if the market cap at which cryptonight ASICs appear isn't a lot higher than Scrypt ASICs (adjusting for differences in time period and such).

Well no one can for any circuit of any reasonable complexity implemented on a complex circuit of the CPU which is somewhat of a blackbox. Berstein even complained recently that Intel isn't documenting all its timings.

The basic problem as I see it is that the only thing Cryptonote does to deal with ASICs is the proof-of-work hash. It doesn't look at other aspects of the system for ways to drive away ASICs. And in some sense, it shouldn't since Cryptonote like all existing crypto is subject to a 51% attack and thus it needs as much hashrate as it can get (up to some level).

EDIT: there is actually a real world example of using just in-CPU crypto not being enough to compete with ASICs and that is Intels SHA extensions. They are not competitive with Bitcoin mining ASICs.

Seems I had read something about that where Intel hadn't done the circuit necessary to be competitive. As you said, SHA is a complex algorithm. If there is some instruction which is fundamental and highly optimized, e.g. 64x64 it might be as optimized as it can get in silicon. I doubt Intel has fully optimized anything to that degree, but apparently on the AES benchmarks they got close.

It seems to me that a slower SHA hash is not something that can slow your computer to a crawl. Whereas with full disk encryption, Intel needs AES to be very fast.
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