Devaluation of Chinese Yuan

[deisik]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one...

And that is the US dollar!

[1715200810]

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[1715200810]

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[1715200810]

1715200810

[deisik]

Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can).

Governments in the state of a major money fuck-up (of any kind) are known to restrict the free flow of foreign currencies and precious metals, up to direct prohibition under the threat of criminal prosecution...

Let's recall the notorious US Gold Reserve Act of 1933

[acquafredda]

Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can).

Governments in the state of a major money fuck-up (of any kind) are known to restrict the free flow of foreign currencies and precious metals, up to direct prohibition under the threat of criminal prosecution...

Let's recall the notorious US Gold Reserve Act of 1933

Come on dollars can't go up too much. At some point they will have to crash: there has never been something always going up.
And the question, obviously, is not if this will happen, but when?

I think soon.

[Erdogan]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one...

And that is the US dollar!

Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold.

[deisik]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one...

And that is the US dollar!

Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold.

Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far...

What part did I miss?

[TPTB_need_war]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one...

And that is the US dollar!

Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold.

Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far...

What part did I miss?

It all ended up overseas in bond issues due to carry trade from ZIRP to higher interest rates in developing markets. And thus now the world is short the dollar (owes $9 trillion as their exports collapse) and the is why the dollar will become incredibly strong until 2017.9.

You guys are clueless because you don't read Martin Armstrong and you don't understand international capital flows determine everything.

There won't be any hyperinflation. The Fed will raise interest rates now for the next several years and send us into a horrific global deflation and totalitarianism.

And no Bitcoin will not win. It was planted as part of the plan to move to trackable digital money so you can be enslaved and expropriated.

Any way I am tired of teaching this. Go ahead with your fantasies.

[Erdogan]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one...

And that is the US dollar!

Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold.

Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far...

What part did I miss?

You missed QE 5.
And fuck armstrong.

[TPTB_need_war]

You missed QE 5.
And fuck armstrong.

And you will be wrong. Guaranteed.

[Erdogan]

You missed QE 5.
And fuck armstrong.

And you will be wrong. Guaranteed.

I agree on strong dollar. Timing, I wouldn't know. The first part, china hard landing happens now.

[TPTB_need_war]

It is not just China. Every where outside the USA is entering hard landing after October. It will accelerate into 2016.

We are heading into 2008 crisis yet much worse. The USA has no incentive to QE as the banks were already recapitalized in 2008/2009. It is Europe which has 30-to-1 leverage in the banks all over Europe (all of Europe will follow China soon). The Fed must raise interest rates because pensions are going broke and because they see stampede of international capital into the dollar.

Outside the USA will go into a downward spiral because their currencies & exports will implode at the same time their debt explodes and being short the dollar also.

By 2017.9, the strong dollar will have killed all of the USA's exports and then we will see the USA fall into the abyss too. They won't be able to QE again in 2018, because confidence will be blown to smitherenes. The USA public is ready for change and this will intensify as the dollar inflows won't help mainstreet only wallstreet. If they don't get it in the 2016 national elections, they will withdraw their money by 2018. That means the government bastards will have to move to capital controls.

Massive totalitarianism coming. You'll need an anonymous coin and one with decentralized mining. GavinCoin (aka BitcoinXT) will be the tracking coin subservient to the State.

[OROBTC]

...

Erdogan, deisik, TPTB

For at least the short term, the US$ is likely to keep going up.  Investors worldwide are fleeing almost every other currency, especially and including the Yuan.  China's and Europe's economies are weak.  Neither shows any sign of clear thinking re reforms that would strengthen them.  Not that the USA is really any better, it's just that we're stronger, for now.

The general view (perhaps better stated: the highest probability scenario from my perspective) that I have had for years now is that deflation is likely to happen first, then an inflation/hyperinflation.

*   *   *

Martin Armstrong is an interesting thinker who has made some very good calls.  His study of cycles is very worthy, especially from an academic viewpoint.  His mastery of economic cycles through history is unmatched as far as I have read.  

[EDIT: Reinhart and Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, is nearly an encyclopedia of debt defaults mostly by sovereigns through the past 800 years is very worth reading, highly recommended]

While Armstrong has made some great observations to date, I (still) continue to contend that NO ONE can predict the future with any precision, there are too many unknown and confounding variables.  Trends, yes.  General timing of macro-events (demographics for example), perhaps.  Black Swans, no.

Even TPTB's interesting call of a Knowledge Age (described best at the beginning of the "Economic Devastation" thread) may or may not happen as he predicts.  That is a trend, maybe an unstoppable one, but I am not going to put all of my money on it...  Some money, sure, as there are reasons why a Knowledge Age may indeed be the future.

But, I reiterate: No one can predict the future except in a limited way.

Since no one can predict the future, limited minds like mine continue to suggest diversification in investments and in time used (for learning for example).

[TPTB_need_war]

OROBTC in all due respect for you as very amiable person, I give you 0.1% chance of Armstrong's model failing on the big picture. Little small things yes but not on the big picture.

There will be no hyperinflation at all. There will instead be deflation, rising interest rates, and expropriation via rising taxes and confiscations-by-another-name (e.g. violating money laundering laws, Civil Asset Forfeiture laws, bail-ins, nationalization of pension funds, etc).

He has been accurately predicting the future for nearly 3 decades now.

His $1 billion computer model predicted the 2008 crisis back in 1995.

His model predicts the black swans. Black swans are not really dark, only to those who don't have the data to model them.

If you understand Taleb's math on a deep level, and understand on a deeper level what Armstrong is doing, then you would see the so called black swans are only dark because centralized systems (and groupthink) ignore data and thus overcommit to egregious failure.

[OROBTC]

...

TPTB

If I send you BTC0.1, would then you pay me BTC100 if Armstrong gets something substantially wrong re the big picture?

Terms and conditions of any such bet would have to be spelled out explicitly.

But I'll take a 1000:1 odds on such a bet...

 

 





EDIT: Does Armstrong take into account Taleb's thinking, I have not read enough of M.A. to know.

[TPTB_need_war]

That proves nothing. My capital can early higher gains interim. Why should I let it sit there and lose ROI.

Reread my post.

You are framing your logic incorrectly. Just because I give you high odds of an outcome that doesn't mean opportunity cost means I can earn more betting on that outcome directly.

I am betting on that outcome indirectly by putting all my effort into creating better anonymity and decentralization.

You can't calculate the return on a bet without calculating opportunity cost.

[TPTB_need_war]

...only dark because centralized systems (and groupthink) ignore data and thus overcommit to egregious failure.

For example the readers here who never looked at the data and patterns of international capital flows were in the dark about what is coming. They lacked data and a model. For them it is a Black Swan. But not for me.

[Erdogan]

...

Erdogan, deisik, TPTB

For at least the short term, the US$ is likely to keep going up.  Investors worldwide are fleeing almost every other currency, especially and including the Yuan.  China's and Europe's economies are weak.  Neither shows any sign of clear thinking re reforms that would strengthen them.  Not that the USA is really any better, it's just that we're stronger, for now.

The general view (perhaps better stated: the highest probability scenario from my perspective) that I have had for years now is that deflation is likely to happen first, then an inflation/hyperinflation.

*   *   *

Martin Armstrong is an interesting thinker who has made some very good calls.  His study of cycles is very worthy, especially from an academic viewpoint.  His mastery of economic cycles through history is unmatched as far as I have read.  

[EDIT: Reinhart amd Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, is nearly an encyclopedia of debt defaults mostly by sovereigns through the past 800 years is very worth reading, highly recommended]

While Armstrong has made some great observations to date, I (still) continue to contend that NO ONE can predict the future with any precision, there are too many unknown and confounding variables.  Trends, yes.  General timing of macro-events (demographics for example), perhaps.  Black Swans, no.

Even TPTB's interesting call of a Knowledge Age (described best at the beginning of the "Economic Devastation" thread) may or may not happen as he predicts.  That is a trend, maybe an unstoppable one, but I am not going to put all of my money on it...  Some money, sure, as there are reasons why a Knowledge Age may indeed be the future.

But, I reiterate: No one can predict the future except in a limited way.

Since no one can predict the future, limited minds like mine continue to suggest diversification in investments and in time used (for learning for example).

Good, I mostly agree, but armstrong uses a model, secret too, with adjustments to history. Same as the global warming models. I don't believe in their predictive power. He could be right at the date anyway. Fuck, the dominoes are falling, it could happen tomorrow.

[TPTB_need_war]

Btw, Peru is a developing market. Should bottom by 2020 and start moving back up.

Knowledge Age won't take over and turn bearings into worthless relics in only 4 years. You have a lot of time to adjust on Knowledge Age.

The immediate threat is the coming totalitarianism.

The West will continue declining after 2020. No end in sight for the economic devastation in the West because of the $100s of trillions in actuarial unfunded socialism obligations. Developing nations don't have this albatross around the government's fiscal neck, thus they can waterfall collapse now until 2020, then they will bottom.

Its all over for the West. Kiss it goodbye.

[TPTB_need_war]

Good, I mostly agree, but armstrong uses a model, secret too, with adjustments to history. Same as the global warming models. I don't believe in their predictive power. He could be right at the date anyway. Fuck, the dominoes are falling, it could happen tomorrow.

Global warming uses fudged data and lies.

Armstrong uses data collected from every year since 6000 B.C. He spent $10 million ($100 million in 2015 dollars?) in the 1970 - 1980s just collecting every Roman silver coin issue to reconstruct a more accurate A.I. computer model of how empires collapse.

He consistently points out the models need to have data going back 1000s of years, else they lack enough sampling. The patterns of nature, man, and society are not captured in any one 100 year period.

[OROBTC]

...

TPTB

Agreed re opportunity cost, also agreed that your project may provide an even higher rate of return.

I was just hoping that you might take a bet that would yield me some passive income at a great rate-of-return...  



*   *   *

Armstrong, even with his supercomputer, his presumably bright team and all of his work cannot model things for which there IS NO DATA (some Black Swans do not equal other Black Swans, also note that Taleb defined a Black Swan as an UNKNOWABLE & UNPREDICTABLE event, among other things).  

"The butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing may affect grain trading in Chicago..."   <=== You can't model that!

*   *   *

Your current project(s) look to be risky but extremely important.  Few individuals can / have significantly changed the world (individuals not on teams).  You might be the rare exception.  Please do not take my arguments on diversification and probability (from my perspective) as any kind of attack on you or Armstrong.  As in so much that I read, I want good evidence that I do not have to dig too deeply for, at least at the beginning.

I like the "30 second Elevator Version" of new ideas.  If it interests me, then I like the details.  That kind of thinking has yielded fortunes for canny & hard-working Venture Capitalists (alas I am not one of those, on either count).  

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong, even with his supercomputer, his presumably bright team and all of his work cannot model things for which there IS NO DATA (some Black Swans do not equal other Black Swans, also note that Taleb defined a Black Swan as an UNKNOWABLE & UNPREDICTABLE event, among other things).  

"The butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing may affect grain trading in Chicago..."   <=== You can't model that!

There is nothing unpredictable. The entropy of the universe is not infinite unless you consider infinite time into the future. So here and now, there is nothing unpredictable. It is just a question of is your data set comprehensive enough.

There is a hidden order actually even to Butterfly events.

There are some new data that Armstrong can't see. He can see that anonymous crypto can be a frontier. His computer model predicts frontiers to arise (even MA has mentioned grassroots creative destruction), but he personally can't see it because anonymous crypto was never created before.

Entropy is increasing, but it is doing so in an ordered way because again entropy is not infinite. It is the small things and the short-term that can not be predicted accurately because the new entropy is seeping in there. The big picture (macroscopic) entropy morphs less radically than microscopic entropy on each cycle.

Time may just be an illusion but it is the illusion we are assuming here for our purposes.

No risk no reward. But if you understand the unstoppable trend of technology, it doesn't look conceptually risky. Mankind can not turn back the clock on technology. The big risk is on implementation, human failings, misconstrued marketing, etc..