Whoaza......  

I had to do a double take to make sure that I was in the correct thread.





hahahahaha

suchmoon - gets it.

 


You are going to go far in this thread by ridiculing the concept of bitcoin maximalism.  

Fame and fortune anticipated...


not.



That is be called Koreck.

Why would we listen to you, punk?


 




#nohomo




Even if true.. and even if you might be delicate or pregnant.. you are not going to get any special treatment around here, even if you happen to be a girl...   think about it.

And furthermore.... , haven't you heard that >>>>>>on the internet, no one knows that you are a cat/dog (or whatever).<<<<<<

I will agree with you about the part that it is really NOT easy to attempt to show someone that bitcoin is likely one of the most asymmetrical bet to the UPside that anyone can make while at the same time asserting that the person (audience) has to take complete responsibility for their own investment decisions. 

Sometimes, I am not sure if I am the one who has been dissuading my acquaintances in real life to invest in bitcoin because so few actually choose to either invest into bitcoin or even to investigate afterwards.  Actually when years go by, I can tell that my message had sunk in because frequently I am credited with "I should have listened to you, and invested into bitcoin when you told me x years earlier." 

So, then the assumption in the then current conversation becomes that bitcoin has already pumped up so much that it no longer makes sense to invest into bitcoin, and almost always, I say get started right away.. don't delay.. if you do not have any bitcoin, then figure out your finances and start buying BTC regularly.. even if it is ONLY a small amount, and do not get distracted with shitcoins.  Almost no one listens.  And, what can I do?  in some sense the audience (no coiner) needs to be ready, and I am not going to pressure the audience or attempt to twist their arm.

Oh gawd... you truly have proven your "stalker" credentials.  #nohomo


When the facts are put to my face, I can see what a distracted person I happen to be.  Really sucks having A.D.D... if that might be my excuse.



Try to do this to Bawb...

hahahahahaha


I don't delete any posts, so really I do not mind letting the chips fall where they will, even though there can be some scariness in terms of what you had shown can be done within a relatively short period of time.... and I am assuming that you do not even work for any kind of chain analytics firm.  

Just imagine if there are companies or individuals who are spending 24/7 for months and months digging up dirt and striving to put together some kind of a case..... No wonder members delete some of their posts.... Has not been my practice to delete posts (and I do not plan to change), but you can see how some of the analysis can get scary, and probably one of the reasons that Theymos had disabled the member statistics functions within the forum...

I am almost ready to make a joke with a certain question, but I have decided to refrain.. which my thinking of the joke had caused me to consider another joke.  

Do you think that your analysis can either figure out what I am thinking at the various times of my forum posts or diagnose me with some kind of a condition?  In part, I am asking because over the years, there have been a few occasions in which forum members had claimed that they know what condition I have (assuming that I have some kind of a condition), which presumably they have figure out through my forum posts... hahahahaha..

In response to those kinds of situations (accusations), frequently I will tell such member(s) to go fuck themselves (even though I might not use those exact words).. or I might just avoid the topic or change the subject, which I consider to be similarly effective towards telling a member to go fuck themselves, but saying it in a silent - and more passive-aggressive way.

Of course, I find the whole matter a bit surprising.  

In my own defense, I will assert that I believe that I have a pretty strong tendency to either quote the actual text of other members (when I am responding)... but I am surprised that the estimated number of words adds up to nearly 5x my ballpark estimated words per post.   So I estimated myself to have around 50 - 100 words per post, but your analysis shows that I had around 353 words per post (of course, including whatever text I had chosen to quote within my posts).


I will admit that there are some days that I get pissed off at myself for having had spent more time online and typing than I would have preferred, but in the end, I am not being coerced in regards to how I choose to spend my time.. so in that respect, through the years, my typing of posts has been a voluntary activity - and of course, I would prefer that activity to have had been more beneficial (whether merely to me or to some others) than burdensome.

I am not really measuring how long it takes me to type my posts, but for sure, if research has to be done or information compiled that is not already within my database, then some of the posts could end up taking a considerable amount of time.. not like some of the posts of some other members.... for sure, we have members who set forth posts that are like pieces of art...... and so sometimes such posts can inspire a lot of thinking from myself, and surely members here are on all kinds of levels - so some posts might be tailored to members who are different from myself in terms of their newness (or lack thereof) to bitcoin or their technical knowledge about bitcoin (or whatever the topic of the post/thread).

Probably, there have ONLY been a few instances in which I have really gotten irritated about how much time I was spending to respond to one or more posts, and probably the most frustrating of times had come when I had typed out a post, and for some reason the post ends up getting lost (power failure, posting error, user error, or some other mistake).**  Losing the contents of an already drafted post can be very frustrating, sometimes... I am glad that it has not happened to me too many times.  

**I believe on more than one occasion, I had accidentally clicked on the refresh page button while in the middle of drafting a post, and that does not go over very well in terms of being able to recover the draft of the post.  On the other hand, in my experience, accidentally closing the page while in the middle of drafting a post usually has not resulted in losing much if any of the drafted text by just reopening the draft post from the browser's history.

I personally believe that providing links is the better practice, even if the source may be shown in the chart.

Makes it easy for members here to verify the source, and potentially look into the context of the chart.

I also believe that it is better to explain links and charts.. but of course, opinions are going to vary regarding how much explanation to provide or whether to provide links (to help make it easy to show source).

Of course, sometimes members will provide charts that they have themselves made... and many times it is better to provide some kind of a title or explanation for what the chart means, and of course, to assert who is the author (creator) of the chart (in this example it is the member himself/herself).  Surely some members are more clear regarding their explanations than others, and some members are likely more inclined to want to engage in brainstorming about the information that they provide (receptive to potential criticisms) than others.   

I personally have more respect for the members who are able to accept comments and criticisms without getting too defensive about the matter, but I also recognize that some of us can be a bit annoying with our interactions and our commentary (I am not excluding yours truly from that potentially "annoying" category.)... 

hahahaha

I merited you for reflecting a kind of typical response - regarding not really having direction....

Personally, it seems to me that it is better to try to make a somewhat flexible plan that you can stick with, and even if it is not a perfect plan, if you at least focus on keeping the BIG three in some kind of consistency, then you might have some chance of at least maintaining rather than deteriorating.  In other words, as we get older, we are likely going to go down the drain if we do not at least attempt to make some efforts at improving our BIG three.  When we are younger, we can  do all kinds of dumb shit, and our bodies have a lot of resilience.. not so much the case as we get older.

Here are the BIG three (I think in that order, but I am not completely sure about what the order should be - especially assuming a kind of possible attempt to facilitate a more graceful aging process).
Diet  - at least minimally cut down on the process foods and high sugar foods and attempt to eat naturally in the sense of the kinds of foods that your grand parents or great grandparents would have eaten.
sleep -  try to get a minimum of 6 hours per day of sleep.. .. up to 8 hours a day is o.k.. as long as you get at least 6 hours per day.
exercise - 30 minutes per day on average - but if you cannot do it every day, then try to at least have something like 30-60 minutes 5  days per week.. resistance training is good.. but there is also streching an cardio.. Usually it is better to do the resistance prior to the cardio.. but if you are at least doing something --- even just good pace walking 30 minutes per day.. it would be better than not doing anything.

Sounds like gobble-dee-gook to me.

I don't know what the fuck is "crypto."

Look:  - even billionaires are dumb fucks.  "I changed my mind about crypto.. I don't know what the fuck it was but now that I changed my mind about it, I still do not know what it is."  In other words, he does not know what he changed his mind about, and if anyone interviews him to find out what he is doing exactly, I hope that they can at least get him to describe what he might be doing (that is different) beyond vague ass concepts of changing his mind from one amorphous thing to another amorphous thing.


I seem that you are trying really hard to shrink down your image sizes.












NOT


Huh?

Your explanation is weird, OgNasty.

If the market is going to be erratic, then holding cash in the short term tends to be a decent play, but holding cash in the long term is generally not a good play...

In other words, in the long term surely you are going to lose if you keep your value in cash, and that is why you have to try to figure out what kinds of investments might be good in the long term.. and in the short term all kinds of investments can go all over the place (including bitcoin) so sometimes it might be o.k. to keep some value in cash in the short term.. even though with something like bitcoin, you can never be sure when it is going to have some kind of a Upwards price move, so any of us have to be careful NOT to get out of bitcoin in any kind of BIG way.. especially if an UPpity comes and we had not expected it (which does tend to frequently happen in bitcoin - whether it will happen again or not, is always a difficult question to answer - even though several of us longer time bitcoiners are not going to take too many chances in terms of shaving off large portions of our BTC holdings since it is not really clear if bitcoin is going to correct, merely because other assets might be going through correction phases).

Fuck cholesterol meds... those cholesterol meds are based on largely bullshit theories that were not backed up by actual data/facts... the heart-lipid hypothesis is almost pure bullshit in order to try to get you to buy cheap/processed oils and cheap/process foods that have "healthy" labels.. which largely describe the opposite of what they are.. and surely also gets you to buy meds that you don't need rather than changing other aspects of your diet and lifestyle to cut out the process foods and lower your carb intake.. or to show you that eating natural foods - including increasing the good fats.. such as animal fats.. but increasing the animal fats (non processed oils... get away from margarine, various kinds of vegetable oils, corn oil, soybean oil, and even olive oil is problematic if you are cooking with it and causing it to go rancid.. olive oil has a low smoke point and there are a lot of imitation ones, too... so you are probably not even getting the real deal in terms of olive oil, even if you believe that is what you are buying)  Your whole body is not going to work if you keep putting processed foods in your diet....

Good oils that you should include in your diet would at least be lard, tallow, coconut oil, ghee and butter (but butter has a low smoke-point too.. so gotta be careful not to cook too high with butter if you were to use that for cooking).... in sum.. fuck cholesterol meds.


Of course, there are issues with diabetes that are connected with having bad diets - so some folks are going to be more insulin resistant than others, and of course, the older that people get, the more that their body cannot tolerate weird kinds of foods... Look at the ingredients in the non-dairy creamers... soybean oil and probably various kinds of sugars and various kinds of chemicals in which your body cannot tolerate very well.. and not even saying that the non-dairy creamers do not taste good.... but just because they might taste good does not mean that you should be consuming them.   

Oh gawd.... 

you again.


For more protein (and possibly animal fat - which is good for you) maybe add some fatty ground beef to it  (which would be an attempt to lower the percentage of carbohydrates - of course, cheese is not completely carbohydrates - and yeah, I like the idea of heavy whipping cream rather than water or regular milk)?  Though adding too many other ingredients might end up messing up the whole taste profile?  Think about it:  little pieces of ground beef floating around.. sounds good to me, but I admit it might not be the same experience as the more pure tomato soup play.

You really think that those members (used to be quite regular in these here parts) being gone means that they largely sold out?

In an overall sense, you might be correct with that conclusion.. to at least conclude that some of them might have taken a smaller bitcoin position, yet another possibility would be that they merely want to get a bit more distance from bitcoin discussions when they are seeing that their bitcoin holdings are going up (but that second one does not make so much sense for some folks who had both already been involved in bitcoin discussions and that there should be some desires to continue to monitor bitcoin (portfolio values) if it is both volatile and tending towards being a decent amount of value...

The cashing out decent portions theory does still seem to be amongst the more plausible of theories even though it seems a short-sighted way of thinking about bitcoin and even ultimately any largely cashing out approach would be value the bitcoin in terms of its fiat value without really considering ways to just hold decent amounts of it within the personal investment portfolio.... So diversifying out of BTC so much would show that the BTC value becomes way less important within any kinds of thoughts.. thinking that if the BTC had gotten up to 50 to 70% of investment portfolio holdings and then if a guy ends up not selling all of the BTC, but maybe retaining less than 5% of the overall portfolio in BTC.. A lot of possibilities, and probably I am speculating too much regarding these kinds of particulars that you raised, Biodom.

No... don't do it.

Edit:  I see I am too late.. 



hahahahaha


Your post is not really saying much beyond your preferring bitcoin over shitcoins, and yeah we do not like to talk about shitcoins in these here parts - unless the discussion is somehow related to bitcoin, and just saying shitcoins are worse than bitcoin does not really seem to be saying much.

I know that many of us are wanting to preserve some privacy, but there are long term bitcoiners who are still stacking sats on a regular basis.   Frequently tell people that I did my initial stacking in my first year of bitcoin (which would have been mostly 2014); however, I know that I had continued to be nervous about not having enough bitcoin for at least two more years.  I would not want to tell you what to say, but I hardly feel that I know shit about you from that response - and any shill troll could have written something vague like what you ended up writing.. whether actually wanting privacy or not..

From my own personal experiences, I would provide a ballpark estimate of around 50 to 100 words per post, on average, which would cause the total to be between 1.25 and 2.5 million words in total.

I suppose that there could be tools that could assist to scrape that kind of data, as ImThour is suggesting.  By the way, some of my posts contain my citing of other posts, so I would speculate that if I am citing someone else then the words contained within those citings would not count towards my overall word count.


If you understand what bitcoin is potentially bringing to the table in terms of sound money, there could be reasons to NOT be so doom-laden because bitcoin provides a hedge.. and yeah, maybe you still need guns, bullets, land and food, but bitcoin remains a kind of systematic tool that may well provide an escape valve for those who are ready, willing and able to recognize it and to take action to get some of it.. maybe even spend some time learning about or it or getting involved in it in ways more than just buying (allocating finances towards it).

Fiduciary duties have various requirements under the law, and it is not merely what the "company" might say that it wants.. so fuck that nonsense definition regarding what a fiduciary is.  In essence a fiduciary can still have a lot of discretion, but a fiduciary is also going to be subject to law suits from the company, shareholders or the government if it seems that the fiduciary is acting against the interests of the shareholders, for example.  I guess my point is that even if the fiduciary has obligations, a fiduciary also has a wide-range of reasonableness in carrying out its fiduciary duties, so I would imagine that Musk is way the fuck too childish in both what he wants to do than to be restricted by fiduciary duties, even if those fiduciary duties would still leave him with a lot of discretion.. but it would not allow him to be his typical self of being all the fuck over the place and making base-less requests regarding what he would like or not like and then flip-flopping all over the place unless he could establish some kind of reasonable basis (even if others might not agree with his reasonableness, but if he were to continue with his historical practices of all over the place nonsense, then he likely would end up putting himself in legal jeopardy sooner or later - probably sooner).

You might have anywhere between 10% and 30% odds of achieving less than $30k at some point in bitcoin's future. I would not hold my breath.. and for sure, if you are adequately prepared for UP, then it may well not hurt to have some amount of low ball buy orders.  I think that quite a few longer time bitcoiners will save some fiat for those kinds of lower price scenarios, even if they believe them to be less likely.

Some of the problems with either no coiners or those folks who have not adequately/sufficiently prepared for the possibility of UP would come when they are holding too much value and waiting for a low entry BTC price point that might not end up materializing.. then they are just stuck without any coins.. so in that regard there should be some level of balance to at least have some value already invested so that you are adequately and sufficiently prepared for UP, too. 

The amount that you have prepared for each BTC price direction is surely a matter of discretion that should be largely tailored to all of your own personal circumstances; therefore, there are probably not any two people who structure their balances in terms of how much to prepare for UP, DOWN or sideways in the same exact way.


There is going to be some variation, but any of us who have been into bitcoin for several years (even a whole cycle) are not going to be feeling too much "doom" and gloom these days so long as our portfolios were largely already established prior to September 2020..

On the other hand, if you were still establishing after September 2020 or just getting started at some point after September 2020, then there could be various levels of nervousness in regards to how you might have played your buys/sells/HODLs or whatever.

I am not going to completely ignore the folks who might have thought that they  had been mostly prepared for UP prior to September 2020, and then figured out that they were not as "prepared" as they had thought that they had been... so in those respects, some of those folks might have ended up feeling way more doom and gloom than they should have felt in the event that they had gone through with a more adequate/meaningful preparations prior to September 2020.

I doubt that I was defending you to that extent, but I do question whether some members might be arriving at the wrong conclusion (that you are bitter for having had sold too many coin too soon) merely based on your being a dweeb in other regards.

Ultimately, they could be correct, but there are no real facts to support such assertions... and the logical conclusions are speculations that seem to contain way too many assumptions - even though it seems that most "normal" coiners (if there is such a thing) would not find it to be a very good use of their time to be engaged in attacking actual bitcoiners and even diverting us in this thread. 

We do likely have a pretty high level of coiners regularly participating in this thread - as compared to other random public bitcoin threads out there.


Your numbers do not account for all of the possible BTC price directions.  You say80% odds for sideways within $40k and $55k for the remaining of 2022 and 20% odds for breaking out to the upside.  So, by deduction, you are asserting that there are 0% odds that we go below $40k?  Sure I like your optimism, but you are way too pie in the sky to be assigning such low odds to down (and probably your odds for staying in the range is too high.. so you probably would have been better off with 20/60/20.. so that your odds for breaking down or breaking up are equal.. even though I personally would give higher odds to UP too, but I surely would not assign up as 20% and down as 0%.. that is just too fantasylandia and failure/refusal to actually account for all of the possibilities (even if you might end up being wrong in terms of how much to assign to each, but it is a much better practice to attempt to account for all possibilities, even if you give a very low probability to some of the options - hint: it's gonna be nonzero even for some outrageous possibilities).

I doubt that it is that difficult to understand why a pristine asset would be valuable to HOLD.  I have nothing against spending bitcoin, but there is a very valid point towards understanding Gresham's law which would suggest that it is much better to spend from any of our assets or currencies that hold their value less before spending from assets or currencies that hold their value the most - and being speculated as the best of pristine assets means that bitcoin would be speculated to hold its value the best, so it would be the asset/currency that any of us should be spending last, if we have a choice and we are holding more than one kind of asset/currency.

Of course, one of the presumptions that any of us make with either buying BTC on dips, or buying BTC on a regular basis no matter the cost (that is DCA) or even HODL strategies is that there is a bit of a presumption that in the long term, such as 4-10 years bitcoin prices are going to be higher than they are today or at least if you were to keep buying on a regular basis that the price of bitcoin is going to end up being higher than your costs.

There are no guarantees that the BTC price is going to go up in the long term, so in some sense if you are investing into BTC for the long term such as 4-10 years or longer, you should have some level of conviction or confidence in bitcoin as an asset.. and of course, no investments are guaranteed. 

If you do not have any kind of long term conviction about Bitcoin having decent chances of going up in price in the long term, then probably you should not be investing into bTC and perhaps you should find a better investment (or at least one that you are more comfortable and confident).

Welcome to the forum and to this thread wagmi. 

At the time that I am responding to your above post, you ONLY have 3 post (and the above post is your first one). 

It might be a good idea to provide us some ideas about your bitcoin history.. yet of course, that is up to you regarding how much you might say in any given post, but just so we get some ideas about how you got to this thread and how extensive your bitcoin history might be (or might not be).  Some members come to this thread with almost no bitcoin history at all, even though they might be mostly bitcoin focused.  When I first came to the forum in early 2014, I rarely ventured outside of this thread to other parts of the forum for several years.... so no problem if you want to make this your primary posting location... several members of the forum ONLY post in this thread.


Sure... I am glad to still be alive and kicking.  How about you?  Are there better things to do in this world?

Save the RF.. always on the edge of innovation.

Go figure.

 



I find that sometimes you have an awkward way of phrasing things.. at least that's how it strikes me.  I do appreciate your acceptance that there are likely more things going on within bitcoin price dynamics than merely attempting to point out some seemingly random indicators in order to attempt to identify some "holy grails" and in some sense, maybe guys (and gal?) have to go through some of those kinds of processes in order to attempt to better understand various aspects of bitcoin price dynamics and even to appreciate some longer timeline considerations.. so that you have come to appreciate the stock to flow and four year fractal aspects, which seems to be helpful to your own framings.. and even if you have not articulated another underlying bitcoin price dynamic which is likely the exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, there can be some level of inevitable necessity to have to account for some of those aspects of bitcoin, even if it may well be difficult to exactly figure out how to measure those various ongoing adoption levels.

Regarding purported mining capitulation, that seems to be a kind of fantasy (if not largely misleading framework).  If you look at current hashrate levels we are at the very tipity-top of the all time high hashrates, and last two week period had gone up more than 4% and this period only has a few days left and is ONLY  less than negative 1% at current typing of this post.  Those seem to continue to be outrageously high levels of ongoing support that continues to go into mining - even if we might see some short term declines in hashrate, and if you are not appreciating the recovery from the mid-2021 China effects on the hashrate then maybe you are underplaying how ongoingly bullish hashrate seems to be - even if there continues to be blackbox aspects to many of its details.

Regarding shitcoins for sure each of us has to consider the extent that we might want to get involved in any of that both in terms of how to spend our time (mental energies) and our finances (whether to dilute our bitcoin investment amounts)... including if we might consider that it might be valuable use of our time to investing into matters on a short term basis versus longer term investing such as 4-10 years or more.  It is not like any of us can choose what values other have, even though we can express our preferences, including how we might mention any of that shitcoin nonsense in this thread or not.  For sure, there are times in which some mentioning might be helpful, even if we might be bringing up the topic on our own versus responding to the ideas of some of the other member posts in this thread, so surely there can be tweaks of our plans, strategizing and actions along the way to get our approach (whether balanced or not) to be more in line with our assessments of our finances and psychology in the way that we view bitcoin as compared with other investments and as compared with shitcoins too (if any particular one (or more of them) might be considered as an investment rather than considering as some kind of short-term gamble play).

Are you trying to get me mad at you or to just die from uncontrollable laughter?

I am hurting so badly from the profundities of your insulting insights.   


There are all kinds of BIG holders that are not on that list, and just because Cryptotourist is acting like a dweeb - I doubt that his dweebness is related to his having had dumped bitcoin rather than his either just trolling the thread or maybe he never even held bitcoin in the first place....

I guess my overall point is that Cryptotourist had proclaimed that he was largely a bitcoin holder, so I cannot see any connections that he had actually sold too many coins too soon - even though his comment can be read as seemingly purposeful irrelevant thread divergences.