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mining etf's set to break support yet again following SLW, RGLD and silver. this would be disastrous.
with just a 5% move of the $8.2 trillion gold market moving to Bitcoin, we could ignite the next logarithmic ramp.
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House prices have become monetised over the last 1-2 decades as the options for good savings vehicles (store of value) immune from inflation, tax grabs, regulations (and sundry other rent-seeking) have diminished. As has collectable art, vintage vehicles, antiques, etc. The fiat mis-management has manifest itself in innumerable ways that will only become fully visible when looked back from a stable economy at some point in the future.
Exactly this. What always strikes me about the buy vs. rent discussion is those who say "always buy" are not taking into consideration the reasons housing has done so well. For the lower and middle classes housing has served 2 roles, it has acted as the ONLY inflation protected asset to counter the FED's printing press and has acted as the ONLY method to leverage and benefit from the FED's financialization wave to expand credit everywhere (which enabled housing to grow faster than inflation). Additionally, for the government housing has acted as a forced savings plan. Whether or not housing (in general) will continue to be a smart investment, largely depends on your views regarding the government's ability to continue these trends. Personally I think the expansion of credit cycle is largely tapped out, and the FED will try to only use the printing press to counter the loss of credit growth. In this scenario renting and saving the extra monthly savings intelligently can do very well compared to leveraging 5x your net worth in a single asset class. My father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA. Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going.
Great for him, I hope he did it by understanding the new environment he was in and leveraging that to the hilt. My worry is so many in the following generations assume these trends will go on forever and blindly leverage to the hilt in housing. Most of my peers have done so, they are so "house poor" with CA prices that they have zero ability to create savings outside of housing. This is bad IMHO. Lastly, if you believe Bitcoin will succeed as an escape from centralized money, bringing to a dead stop central bank expansion of the money supply (no more printing and no more bailouts of leveraged banks), then housing in terms of price:income will NOT do well compared to today's valuations. i agree. he bought these properties back in the 60's & 70's using only his cultural perspective that "property (RE) will always do well". auspiciously for him, that was the exact RIGHT time in US history to have this attitude. interestingly, if Bitcoin only holds steady from here, i will have done better than him. edit: for alot less work and headache. such is the power of the network effect of money. |
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oh crap! RGLD, the premier gold royalty company:  |
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crap!  |
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housing is just like any other asset you may choose to invest in. you gotta be smart about it.
if you are, you'll reap the benefits.
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Another way of looking at this is that because everyone knows it's going to happen beginning way back in 2009 and when, then the entire price rise from then until now should be a smooth linear rise. That clearly isn't the case. It's been punctuated by ramps and crashes with long periods of consolidation in between.
Point being, somewhere around the next halving, volatility is going to increase.
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Government has an interest in people owning property. It fosters docility, because they are bound to geography they can always take it and you can't take it with you if you leave. It is the safest asset for them for you to invest in.
You forgot property taxes. One never truly owns the land or the dwelling. I paid off my home years ago yet I still fork over huge amounts. |
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I remember starting the newsletter in April 2012. I remember pleading with subs to buy all dips into the end of year in anticipation of halving. We were stuck between 4.5 and 5.4 for months until May when things started to get volatile in an upward direction, first to 15.5. I don't remember any specific news around them that would account for an immediate effect like that on the price.
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Wow - so every response so far is in agreement didnt have that much of an impact. And that the bubbles that started in 2013 were absolutely not related.
Hmmm. So 1/2 the new bitcoins available on the open market and the effect is always priced in early and does not create supply issues backend.
While I think its more measurable to see that the price might not run up to a halving, I think its less measurable to see the effects of halving 3-12 months down the road. Especially with the gargantuan hashrate we have now that could be even more extreme in 2 years.
Maybe I'm crazy, but it seems that at least the last bubble was caused by a literal lack of supply. There were times in the runup where Chinese exchanges literally ran out of coins. I would think that a halving would have a potential effect here.
i disagree. it definitely had an effect. it's just a matter of how one defines when it kicked in. just b/c we know we have all these halvings in front of us doesn't mean they get priced in today. imo,there wasn't any effect until around 6 mo before the last halving (it was Nov 2012, right?). the forward looking pricing-in effect is offset by the never ending threat of the death of Bitcoin or a gvt-led 51% attack that will wipe out the network at any moment. also like Chris said above, the fear that something might go wrong at the time of the halving. as time gets nearer, ppl get more confident and antsie to make a front running move, which i think was about 6 mo prior to last one. after it went off w/o a hitch, the price skyrocketed to 260 or so in April 2013. of course, the next time will be different. |
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gold futures slowly descending tonite.
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Buying a home at any time in the last 50 years would've been a good move except in years 2007, 2008: www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdfMy father in law is a multi millionaire having bought primarily commercial real estate starting back then in LA. Now his kids get a handsome annuity check monthly. It's amazing how long these trends keep going. |
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It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value. And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.
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long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing. I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one. Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan. believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no. i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time. lol fuck my life. Mind you, I'm not saying buy a house right now as there are some signs its rolling but the long term point I was making still holds, IF you believe fiat is doomed. |
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It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value. And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.
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long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing. I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one. Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace fiat, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan. |
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It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.
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this is trouble. the Q is for who? you know who i think it is:  |
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ghash deprecation continues: 24% is it possible 3's a charm and we never see one pool bump up against 51% again due to Nash equilibrium game theory? the mining industry may actually be decentralizing as more corporate and maybe eventually sovereign actors decide to mine in addition to the pools going forward. at any rate, no worries for now despite what all the POS shills scream:  |
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home affordability and price growth continues to decline. bottom line: the consumer's biggest purchase item in their lifetimes may no longer be their best investment:  |
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