I did it yesterday several times, all worked.

85% anyone? Do you really think that the most secure and trusted exchange who have no liquidity issues would just disappear with the money??

This is an incredible deal to get your hands on the authentic goxBTC!

Offering 400 at 90%, or PM me your bid.

I am also selling my goxBTC at 90%. 400 on offer.

Just keep at least BTC1 in secure storage at all times, and you'll be very fine.

Which I did, and am patiently waiting to buy back cheaper (the buys last night were to cover the short from a week ago).


By "any time" I literally meant that it can happen either imminently, or at any other time before end of March. If you sell from your own position, you don't incur time cost, so it does not matter if the buyback happens now or later - what matters is the %gain of your bitcoin stash. Sorry if you misunderstood that I meant it should go down right then.

I gained undeserved popularity for "nailing" the Dec 18 crash, where I used the same wording, meaning that the price will certainly go from 870 to below 500 some time in the future. Of course it did but I never said it would happen the following day from the prediction. It is difficult to time events, directions and magnitudes are easier.

And I still predict that 500 comes, and when it does, I will post to Adam's thread again. So everyone who bought higher fell into bull trap and I was right, ok? 

After 450, I called the 625 and 670 tops correctly. Then got caught by the uptrend, which in general fits the long-consolidation-before-capitulation prediction perfectly. Called that 800 will fail, which it did. Now calling a lower low before end of March, exactly the same as I have been saying all the time, same timeframe, same numbers. Of course this is only one scenario, but the one that I stand to gain the most if it happens.

Reading someone's predictions is difficult, especially if he is not a gambler but a position manager I take refuge in the fact that I have increased my bitcoin count by trading.

Okay, my goxBTC is for sale then!

My intention is to bring liberty people to the forum, so that the statists like you would see the light and amend your heretical ways

If you take only Mt.Gox as your data, we are even more above the trendline.

Okay, I bite

I am willing to sell you the following at 90% of the face value:

476.22140850 BTC in Mt.Gox user interface
58.59 BTC in delayed transfers.

How to proceed?

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Madam,

Why is your tongue so sharp?

Concerning the correction - I had some bids in the 600-700 area (most of) which were fulfilled. This was a small short-term gain after selling at ~800 when that level started to feel shaky 1-2 weeks ago.

This is an excellent setup for the "final capitulation", the bottom of which can be anywhere significantly below the current price of $664 and the exponential trend which is today at $648. Around $400 is my guess. I now put the chances of going lower at above 50%. Long time ago I played with the possible dates and found that Feb 14 is a good candidate for being the low point. Any time until end of March is possible though.

Mt.Gox may blow up and could catalyze further crashes. A persistent downward trend also suppresses new investment. It is just the way the market goes - in waves. The good thing is that when we see the bottom, there is no more downside left, it is all UP, UP, UP.

TL;DR: I think the confidence is now decisively shaken based on the price action alone, which means that trend is down until exhaustion.

Last time I have gotten something through is: 2014-02-05 07:30:15.

I try every few hours with small sums, so that is quite many tries ago.

The system is either royally messed up, or operated with malignant intention. I do not believe Mark would have such an intention so either the place is operated by aliens, or is in the process of falling into disrepair.

Luckily I am in correspondence with the support, and have voiced my concerns.

The forum is a full one week old now, please give us some time!

My idea has originally been to allow and encourage lurkers (after all, my reason to post is to influence people, and in general more readers = more influence). Then I switched to "incubator forum with a controlled public interface (blog, media contact)" model, which I am currently advocating. Some other people want to have a relaxing lounge without trolls but also without world-changing effect.

It is in a constant evolution, but we would likely keep the metatalk there. If you want an invitation, just ask somebody who is already in, but not me, unless you actually know me. We are responsible of whom we take in, and I would not like to actually decline somebody's wish just based on that. Besides, I am busy with other matters than membership rights administration


"Wall Observer" is a part of bitcoin culture, which means that a thread is officially about walls, heavily moderated, TA, and such, but in reality just an interesting thread about whatever is at hand. Btw. isn't it a little masochistic to go to self-moderated viper's den to scold the viper? 


So much blame with so little data that could be used to replace the contested part!

As if I did not know that the first USD/Bitcoin exchange was conducted in January 2009 with an exchange rate of $0.001 per bitcoin? Sirius, who was the seller, told this to me while sitting on the couch of my private club sipping my whisky. You can read from the thread in question, why these individual instances are ignored and rather an average has been used. Until someone has a better idea, that is.


Not posting useless crap is a hygiene matter, yes, that will be enforced brutally. After a couple of people you brought to the forum have been banned, you will also.

It would be good that you had at least some field of interest/experience that you could share and contribute. At present we are negative towards lurkers (as discussed above). It does not need to be Bitcoin-related.

This is a forum for liberty-lovers ("anarchists", "libertarians", "anti-statists"). So if statism is your thing, stay away. We will detect it anyway and kick you out

Having 500 posts helps a great lot, because after such an amount of contribution, we definitely see whether you are the right type or not. There is a proposal that we have a two-tier forum where quality posters would be invited to the deeper section, but then again, almost every thing has already been proposed

Being a millionaire is not required, but some of the content is strongly related to the ongoing process of us all becoming millionaires and how we should prepare for the eventuality (and for the scenario that the supposed eventuality does not materialize).

If Jackson ever said anything about "dealing with money supply", rest assured that it meant a completely different thing back then. The law gave them power to "coin money and regulate the value thereof", which means that they could lawfully fix the silver:gold ratio.


What do you find annoying? That finally somebody (Goat) takes action with something as lowly as a forum? Or that I cannot let hordes of unknown people in? Do you know that we may instate entrance exams?

The good thing with the ass-reaming by Mt.Gox is that when it blows up, it will hopefully either wholly do away also with the Bitcoin Foundation and all the gang that is under gag orders there, OR liberate the said people and make the Bitcoin economy functional again.

Surely you may set up your own forum with any "top contributors" you are able to amass         We are discussing about how to organize so as to gain more freedom (by distribution of work, pooling of resources, presenting a united front where applicable) than what we lose (by going so low as to actually regard our fellow bitcoiners as our tribe and taking it upon ourselves to really coordinate with them, naturally only in minor aspects and based on purely individualistic decision by each and every participant in each and every time - did I mention voluntarily?)

ADD: If this strikes as interesting to you and want to participate, there are others who grant access. Just find one of them!

It's a different thing to cry hold and do hold.

But I guess we are both advocating the same thing, making a plan (to own bitcoins after some years) and sticking to it. 

Considering that bitcoin's market penetration limit is 5 billion users and target is 2 billion, and that we are at 0.002 billion now, we are still quite young. I am currently employing an analyst to chart Bitcoin's market penetration and holding profile for the whole of its history, and from the top of my head I could say that in 12/2012 Bitcoin had 0.0002 billion (200,000) users. Not many of the central concepts like the theory of SSS (which Peter referred to) or the theory of HODL (that you referred to) were simply not there.

In absence of almost any coherent economics/investment theory, many early adopters made what now seem colossal blunders, squandering away their inheritance and not even ensuring their financial future in return. But we should not blame them - in the worst case they can start over and still be early adopters.

It is much easier to start with Bitcoin now than at any point before. There is a solid theoretical background outlining a compelling scenario of Bitcoin doing away with the fiat system, and you can make a highly asymmetric bet on it by buying a few (or even a fraction of a) bitcoin(s) to participate. In the hypothetical worst case you can only lose it all, in the best case you can easily calculate how much you will make, if only you have the storage arrangements up to date, and the divestation plan which you can and will stick to.

No.

You strawmaned that
- we are building another foundation, even after my HELL; NO, which was to indicate that the opposite is happening.
- claiming that 80% of bitcoins are in hands of early adopters which is not true unless you define "early adopter" by the size of holding and make a cutoff, which would make FBI an early adopter, leading to contradiction.
- Jackson had a wealth distribution agenda (which he didn't but you seem to have).

The final capitulation will come in (a) February-March, (b) later, or (c) not at all. I did not have very much hope for January ever, and I think basically we are right on track for the capitulation scenario pricewise and sentimentwise (bullishness abounds, which is good for contrarians). The bitcoin economy seems more resilient though, giving actual support for bullish dreams. China has exhausted the bad news, and USA seems happy with their latest advances regarding compliance.

You might still remember (in 2011-12) how price rose from $2 to $7, backed down to $5, and we had some months of stability and no doubt some were waiting for cheap coins. They never came. One always needs to be prepared for both possibilities.

Given that we are still above the trendline, and bitcoin's tendency to flashcrash, I would not start bailing in now unless you are clearly overextended with your short position. It is good to remember that if you take some of the fiat off-exchange, it will also reduce the systemic risk and add to your risk management even if you lose on the trade.