rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[ErisDiscordia]

There is no more need for self-breeding fatass-wannabe clubs searching for boots to lick in the stolen money realm.

I think you misunderstood me. I'm as anarchistic as they come. I distrust all hierarchical organizations, because I find that such a structure obstructs the free flow of information, because communication is possible only between equals. That being said, I am more of a "gradual evolution from the bottom-up"-guy, than a "violent revolution from the top down"-one. This is why I support a scenario in which we go from the belief, that there has to be one foundation only, to two and several foundations, until we might finally realize, that we don't need any of them/every single user can and should act as his own representative and foundation. Also there should be absolutely no coercion, fees and taxation. I'm just thinking about new forms of organizing ourselves.

I don't agree with most of the stances and policies of the current foundation. I can't get behind the "regulation is good for us" rhetoric at all. Alternatives are needed.

The state doesn't necessarily have to be involved in enforcing the regulations, that's the beauty of it. Regulations can be enforced with main information channels by those who control them, and therefor could be in the hand of an private organization.

Earlier you criticized people for slacking off and believing the "free market" will solve everything for them.  It seems that you believe in taking things into our own hands and claiming responsibility - I like that

[aminorex]

If Gox had solvency issues i would expect staff/Mark  would be making more of an effort to arbitrage the other exchanges.

At the widest possible spread.

[TERA]

Where are those $400 coins?? I am getting really tired of waiting.

[rpietila]

Strawmancount exceeded => delete.

[hdbuck]

Strawmancount exceeded => delete.

Sry i dont get it. wasnt i raising a fair argument?



edit: that is just wrong to delete all the posts that arent fully backing you up. if you make reference to US former president such as andrew jackson you should at least have the decency to argue its view on banks, economy and monetary system since it is what you are aiming to apparently 'improve' with your little private society. tss 

[rpietila]

Where are those $400 coins?? I am getting really tired of waiting.

The final capitulation will come in (a) February-March, (b) later, or (c) not at all. I did not have very much hope for January ever, and I think basically we are right on track for the capitulation scenario pricewise and sentimentwise (bullishness abounds, which is good for contrarians). The bitcoin economy seems more resilient though, giving actual support for bullish dreams. China has exhausted the bad news, and USA seems happy with their latest advances regarding compliance.

You might still remember (in 2011-12) how price rose from $2 to $7, backed down to $5, and we had some months of stability and no doubt some were waiting for cheap coins. They never came. One always needs to be prepared for both possibilities.

Given that we are still above the trendline, and bitcoin's tendency to flashcrash, I would not start bailing in now unless you are clearly overextended with your short position. It is good to remember that if you take some of the fiat off-exchange, it will also reduce the systemic risk and add to your risk management even if you lose on the trade.

[rpietila]

Strawmancount exceeded => delete.

Sry i dont get it. wasnt i raising a fair argument?

No.

You strawmaned that
- we are building another foundation, even after my HELL; NO, which was to indicate that the opposite is happening.
- claiming that 80% of bitcoins are in hands of early adopters which is not true unless you define "early adopter" by the size of holding and make a cutoff, which would make FBI an early adopter, leading to contradiction.
- Jackson had a wealth distribution agenda (which he didn't but you seem to have).

[TERA]

The final capitulation will come in (a) February-March, (b) later, or (c) not at all.

China has exhausted the bad news

Until the chinese exchanges or corporate bank accounts actually get shut down.

You might still remember (in 2011-12) how price rose from $2 to $7, backed down to $5, and we had some months of stability and no doubt some were waiting for cheap coins

It was below the trendline after a 93% decline. The previous ATH was $32 and not $7.

It is good to remember that if you take some of the fiat off-exchange, it will also reduce the systemic risk and add to your risk management even if you lose on the trade.

Do you mean fiat in a bank account, btc in cold storage, or both?

[hdbuck]

Strawmancount exceeded => delete.

Sry i dont get it. wasnt i raising a fair argument?

No.

You strawmaned that
- we are building another foundation, even after my HELL; NO, which was to indicate that the opposite is happening.
- claiming that 80% of bitcoins are in hands of early adopters which is not true unless you define "early adopter" by the size of holding and make a cutoff, which would make FBI an early adopter, leading to contradiction.
- Jackson had a wealth distribution agenda (which he didn't but you seem to have).

ok,

1/ so what would be your new foundation's purpose exactly?

2/ i claim that similarly to $$, only a few thousands of people (early adopters or not) have more than 80% of bitcoins which make it not well distributed, hence sensitive to manipulation?

3/Jackson believed that ONLY the government should be allowed to deal with money supply, not banks or any other entity: so what about bitcoins?

i am not trolling, just trying to understand whats in stake at my little level.

[Bios Optimus]

Where are those $400 coins?? I am getting really tired of waiting.

The final capitulation will come in (a) February-March, (b) later, or (c) not at all. I did not have very much hope for January ever, and I think basically we are right on track for the capitulation scenario pricewise and sentimentwise (bullishness abounds, which is good for contrarians). The bitcoin economy seems more resilient though, giving actual support for bullish dreams. China has exhausted the bad news, and USA seems happy with their latest advances regarding compliance.

You might still remember (in 2011-12) how price rose from $2 to $7, backed down to $5, and we had some months of stability and no doubt some were waiting for cheap coins. They never came. One always needs to be prepared for both possibilities.

Given that we are still above the trendline, and bitcoin's tendency to flashcrash, I would not start bailing in now unless you are clearly overextended with your short position. It is good to remember that if you take some of the fiat off-exchange, it will also reduce the systemic risk and add to your risk management even if you lose on the trade.

Rpietla, I have seen so many trend lines.  can you show which one you are referring too in your statement above? Thanks in advance

[ArticMine]

Where are those $400 coins?? I am getting really tired of waiting.

The final capitulation will come in (a) February-March, (b) later, or (c) not at all. I did not have very much hope for January ever, and I think basically we are right on track for the capitulation scenario pricewise and sentimentwise (bullishness abounds, which is good for contrarians). The bitcoin economy seems more resilient though, giving actual support for bullish dreams. China has exhausted the bad news, and USA seems happy with their latest advances regarding compliance.

You might still remember (in 2011-12) how price rose from $2 to $7, backed down to $5, and we had some months of stability and no doubt some were waiting for cheap coins. They never came. One always needs to be prepared for both possibilities.

Given that we are still above the trendline, and bitcoin's tendency to flashcrash, I would not start bailing in now unless you are clearly overextended with your short position. It is good to remember that if you take some of the fiat off-exchange, it will also reduce the systemic risk and add to your risk management even if you lose on the trade.

Rpietla, I have seen so many trend lines.  can you show which one you are referring too in your statement above? Thanks in advance

rpietila is referring to this graph https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;all. It is based upon weighted averages actual trade data from June 2010 onwards and an "assumption" that the BTC/USD rate was 0.005. from January 2009 to May 2010. The results are then fitted to a exponential (log scale) using a least squares regression analysis. I questioned the assumption in this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3464857#msg3464857 back in November 2, 2013, indicting that the impact of the very questionable 2009 and early 2010 data was to underestimate the trend line today. To put things into perspective if one says that the BTC /USD rate was 0.005 in January 2009, "the assumption" when in fact the correct market BTC /USD rate should have been 0.00005 or even less this is equivalent to replacing the November 2013 figure of 517 with 5.17 or less. This is because we are dealing with a log fit.
I do not wish to throw out the "baby" with the "bathwater" here. If one takes out the the early 2010 and 2009 "data", "the bathwater" and recalculates the trendline what is left would actually be excellent including I must say rpietila's overall analysis. The danger here is that by not throwing out "the bathwater" the trendline will significantly underestimate the likelihood of an upside breakout in price in the near future. For reference when I questioned the assumption back in early November 2013 the BTC /USD rate was in the 200 - 210 range on Bitstamp.

[Bios Optimus]

Thanks ArticMine

[cAPSLOCK]

3/Jackson believed that ONLY the government should be allowed to deal with money supply, not banks or any other entity: so what about bitcoins?

i am not trolling, just trying to understand whats in stake at my little level.

At the time that was the safest, fairest option.  Now there is an even better option for that power to be out of the hands of any elite group.

Of course those elite groups will continue to try to form and seize power from the masses even when they claim to be doing so in the best interests of said little people.

This, for example, is an abominable flaunting of that intention in my opinion:

Major announcement: There is a new private bitcoin forum online. If you belong to the top contributors here, please PM and I will send you an invitation. Finally a place to take the discussion to a new level! 

No vacancies currently, thank you

[BTCtrader71]

Yes, it is definitely the time to have a network which actually cares about Bitcoin and its members' liberties.

The "bitcoin foundation" has shown its skin in the longish time it has existed. Other secret societies also have not benefited the public.

It is time for all this to change. Long Live Goat the Great!

Risto,  

Do you have any thoughts on the use of crypto-technology to build better alternatives to the Bitcoin Foundation and to the various bitcoin-fiat exchanges? I am thinking along the lines of a DAC (Distributed Autonomous Corporation) or DA (Decentralized Application), which are concepts I am just beginning to explore.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Distributed_Autonomous_Community_/_Decentralized_Application

[rpietila]

3/Jackson believed that ONLY the government should be allowed to deal with money supply, not banks or any other entity: so what about bitcoins?

At the time that was the safest, fairest option.  Now there is an even better option for that power to be out of the hands of any elite group.

If Jackson ever said anything about "dealing with money supply", rest assured that it meant a completely different thing back then. The law gave them power to "coin money and regulate the value thereof", which means that they could lawfully fix the silver:gold ratio.

Of course those elite groups will continue to try to form and seize power from the masses even when they claim to be doing so in the best interests of said little people.

This, for example, is an abominable flaunting of that intention in my opinion:

Major announcement: There is a new private bitcoin forum online. If you belong to the top contributors here, please PM and I will send you an invitation. Finally a place to take the discussion to a new level!  

No vacancies currently, thank you

What do you find annoying? That finally somebody (Goat) takes action with something as lowly as a forum? Or that I cannot let hordes of unknown people in? Do you know that we may instate entrance exams?

The good thing with the ass-reaming by Mt.Gox is that when it blows up, it will hopefully either wholly do away also with the Bitcoin Foundation and all the gang that is under gag orders there, OR liberate the said people and make the Bitcoin economy functional again.

Surely you may set up your own forum with any "top contributors" you are able to amass         We are discussing about how to organize so as to gain more freedom (by distribution of work, pooling of resources, presenting a united front where applicable) than what we lose (by going so low as to actually regard our fellow bitcoiners as our tribe and taking it upon ourselves to really coordinate with them, naturally only in minor aspects and based on purely individualistic decision by each and every participant in each and every time - did I mention voluntarily?)

ADD: If this strikes as interesting to you and want to participate, there are others who grant access. Just find one of them!

[MrHindsight]

This, for example, is an abominable flaunting of that intention in my opinion:

Major announcement: There is a new private bitcoin forum online. If you belong to the top contributors here, please PM and I will send you an invitation. Finally a place to take the discussion to a new level!  

No vacancies currently, thank you

Personally I don't see any objections to setting up restricted fora, something each may decide for its own. Also 'rpietila's' initiative regards to 'Top Contributors', which includes people of differentiated status. But I can understand your initial annoyance, as it reflects elitism. That's how society works though, birds of a feather flock together. Even Bitcoin can't change that.

Also can't blame them, as Bitcointalk is rather bloated with -let's moderately say- less intellectual posts.

[kkaspar]

I think that before creating a new "club" in the bitcoin community, you need to set solid goals on what will the club be doing.
At first I still would recommend on creating this public letter addressed to the bitcoin foundation and the dev team, with pointing out the flaws in the market system that need to be dealt with. If the current organizations choose to go down the same path, with ignoring the problems, then there will be solid base, that this new organization needs to be created to fix the problems that were brought to light. When a new group is created on presumption that now we just are the new elite of the community, then that will become another useless group of vain people who won't actually do anything that matters.

I still hope that someone that is known more in the community, will take on this task in creating the public letter. Or else I have to do it myself and my voice won't reach as many people.

[MatTheCat]

Personally I don't see any objections to setting up restricted fora, something each may decide for its own. Also 'rpietila's' initiative regards to 'Top Contributors', which includes people of differentiated status. But I can understand your initial annoyance, as it reflects elitism. That's how society works though, birds of a feather flock together. Even Bitcoin can't change that.

Also can't blame them, as Bitcointalk is rather bloated with -let's moderately say- less intellectual posts.

It's just like the Bitcoin Freemasons. Whilst it is true that there are lots of idiotic posters on this forum I suspect that half of them already have their invites to Grandmaster Rpietila's Bitcoin Lodge. I suspect that the main criteria for entry into this 'exclusive' little club isn't a person's acumen or level of intelligence, but whether or not they fall into line with rpietila's own thinking and harmonise themselves with rpietila own whimsical outbursts.

But then this is all very much in keeping with Bitcoin as although it disguised itself as libertarian, it was always elitist from the start. Satoshi Nakamoto/NSA dev team get 12% of all Bitcoins of all Bitcoins currently in existence and price discovery of Bitcoin market ever since has been largely a game being played out between early adopter whales.

Bitcoin just takes the same old human greed and oneupmanship into a 21st century financial product/phenomena. It is only logical that elitist pseudo masonic groups start to emerge with a set of publicly stated noble virtues, yet whose operation in practice turns out to be more like a self-serving arse crawling race. This is how human's organise themselves, ambitious humans anyhow.

Question is, can rpetilia offer enough 'breadcrumbs' to make enough Bitcoiners believe that his arsehole is worth crawling up?

[kkaspar]

Personally I don't see any objections to setting up restricted fora, something each may decide for its own. Also 'rpietila's' initiative regards to 'Top Contributors', which includes people of differentiated status. But I can understand your initial annoyance, as it reflects elitism. That's how society works though, birds of a feather flock together. Even Bitcoin can't change that.

Also can't blame them, as Bitcointalk is rather bloated with -let's moderately say- less intellectual posts.

It's just like the Bitcoin Freemasons. Whilst it is true that there are lots of idiotic posters on this forum I suspect that half of them already have their invites to Grandmaster Rpietila's Bitcoin Lodge. I suspect that the main criteria for entry into this 'exclusive' little club isn't a person's acumen or level of intelligence, but whether or not they fall into line with rpietila's own thinking and harmonise themselves with rpietila own whimsical outbursts.

But then this is all very much in keeping with Bitcoin as although it disguised itself as libertarian, it was always elitist from the start. Satoshi Nakamoto/NSA dev team get 12% of all Bitcoins of all Bitcoins currently in existence and price discovery of Bitcoin market ever since has been largely a game being played out between early adopter whales.

Bitcoin just takes the same old human greed and oneupmanship into a 21st century financial product/phenomena. It is only logical that elitist pseudo masonic groups start to emerge with a set of publicly stated noble virtues, yet whose operation in practice turns out to be more like a self-serving arse crawling race. This is how human's organise themselves, ambitious humans anyhow.

Question is, can rpetilia offer enough 'breadcrumbs' to make enough Bitcoiners believe that his arsehole is worth crawling up?

I agree that there is no use for elitist or secretive masonic groups. Groups like that on only feed the vanity of it's members and actual work on something that needs to be done is not a priority. We need public and democratic groups that are defined by common goals in fixing known problems. If the group is defined just by it's members being rich, then it's nothing more then vanity.

[MatTheCat]

I agree that there is no use for elitist or secretive masonic groups. Groups like that on only feed the vanity of it's members and actual work on something that needs to be done is not a priority. We need public and democratic groups that are defined by common goals in fixing known problems. If the group is defined just by it's members being rich, then it's nothing more then vanity.

Fuck me!

Of course. One of rpietil's criteria for entry will be members of this forum who have been around a good while, and who will therefore be loaded up on double digit Bitcoin.

Just imagine the tricks and mischief that a Brotherly Lodge of Bitcointalk (relatively) early adopters could wreack upon the Bitcoin market in the name of lining their own pockets promoting the best interests of the cryptocurrency, if they pooled their resources together under one common leadership figure. Of course, if I could be privvy to knowledge of their market actions before the deed, it would greatly benefit my own swing trading activities....

hmm..maybe I should quickly delete all my posts and start towing the line here. That way, if I am good, maybe I can get some breadcrumbs too!? 

I dont know if any of you have noticed- but this is a T.A. thread and not a "bash  the new bitcoin elites" thread...

Go on boy, you can do it, go go go. 1st to get past that sphincter gets a free box of cuban cigars!

I have often thought just that when I have visited this thread and witnessed all manner of irrelevent bollocks about cigars and whatnot getting discussed. Infact, this whole thread consists of very little in the way of TA.