rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

[nanobrain]

Wow, I checked in to see what the great, cigar-smoking brains were thinking and what a potential floor for this correction may be: I find some meta-discussion about forums and that some VIP forum has been set up.  No riff-raff. 

"Being a millionaire is not required" - hilarious

I take the stance of Marx (Groucho not Karl) with regard to clubs.

Madam,

Why is your tongue so sharp?

Concerning the correction - I had some bids in the 600-700 area (most of) which were fulfilled. This was a small short-term gain after selling at ~800 when that level started to feel shaky 1-2 weeks ago.

This is an excellent setup for the "final capitulation", the bottom of which can be anywhere significantly below the current price of $664 and the exponential trend which is today at $648. Around $400 is my guess. I now put the chances of going lower at above 50%. Long time ago I played with the possible dates and found that Feb 14 is a good candidate for being the low point. Any time until end of March is possible though.

Mt.Gox may blow up and could catalyze further crashes. A persistent downward trend also suppresses new investment. It is just the way the market goes - in waves. The good thing is that when we see the bottom, there is no more downside left, it is all UP, UP, UP.

TL;DR: I think the confidence is now decisively shaken based on the price action alone, which means that trend is down until exhaustion.

Sir,
Hell hath no fury etc and I'm still forgiving you for ignoring my PM last year.

But I think its a shame you, Goat, Aminorex and the rest feel you can't co-exist with the rest of us.  This is a self-modded thread - you should mod it and mould it to what you want - I'm sure people could live with that.
 
Considering much of the BTC idealism around crypto making the world a better and more egalitarian place has already been sacrificed on the alter of consumerism/greed, your move smacks of elitism.  There is also the evolutionary psychology aspect: closed environments tend to lead to closed minds. And to be frank, I don't like cliques (they tend to attract fools, don't you think?). 

As much as I give you a hard-time occasionally I enjoy your posts, as I do the others mentioned above (although on reflection, most of Goat's posts are CCMF, pix of his Lambo and tales of hookers and blow).  The folks who annoy you now will soon pass by, that's the nature of forums, but new users who you appreciate will also join.

SO, about that floor.

I'm not sure about 'capitulation': I wonder if the medium and processes used by BTC (ie the internet, immediacy etc) are modifying people's investment behaviours, so the former paradigms and expectations of market behaviour are changing (much like FB has changed relationship behavioural patterns).

Anyway, thanks for your response re. the floor - the St Valentine's Day massacre? - we'll see. 

[ArticMine]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

On the surface this appears as sound advice. I mean with the recent bearish move and we are still above the trend line (577 BTC / USD For January 2014). Then there is the army of bears bearing iPhones coming out of Mother Russia. There is however one little problem, I just cannot trust that 2009 and early 2010 data.  So I am not selling any of my BTC (the bulk of my portfolio is in BTC) and I will pass on those short BTC / USD CFD's in my trading account. Instead I will sit back and watch the Putin Spectacle aka Olympic Ceremony starting about now.

[rpietila]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

On the surface this appears as sound advice. I mean with the recent bearish move and we are still above the trend line (577 BTC / USD For January 2014). Then there is the army of bears bearing iPhones coming out of Mother Russia. There is however one little problem, I just cannot trust that 2009 and early 2010 data.  So I am not selling any of my BTC (the bulk of my portfolio is in BTC) and I will pass on those short BTC / USD CFD's in my trading account. Instead I will sit back and watch the Putin Spectacle aka Olympic Ceremony starting about now.

If you take only Mt.Gox as your data, we are even more above the trendline.

[rpietila]

This is a forum for liberty-lovers ("anarchists", "libertarians", "anti-statists"). So if statism is your thing, stay away. We will detect it anyway and kick you out

I will have to say that I am by far the most statist on the site and at times feel out of place but imo this site could also become a business incubator in the future where even though we are not completely like minded in social policies and such, we are like minded in fiscal and business policies.

My intention is to bring liberty people to the forum, so that the statists like you would see the light and amend your heretical ways

[TERA]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Wow much accurancy. (so far)

[NamelessOne]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Wow much accurancy. (so far)

Rpietila has had some incredible accuracy previously. His predictions in late November and early December of getting to the 400-450 range were really quite incredible. It was hilarious watching permabull (im long bull) trolls ripping on him and then all proven wrong when the price hit his numbers perfectly.   

[dedcoin]

We are not far off your caclulated trendline $648.
Any reason why you think that we will start being underbought for sometime, i.e.: $400?

[magicmexican]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Wow much accurancy. (so far)

Rpietila has had some incredible accuracy previously. His predictions in late November and early December of getting to the 400-450 range were really quite incredible. It was hilarious watching permabull (im long bull) trolls ripping on him and then all proven wrong when the price hit his numbers perfectly.   

To be fair, it was hilarious to watch his predictions days and weeks after the 450 also, all of them being totally wrong.

[NamelessOne]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Wow much accurancy. (so far)

Rpietila has had some incredible accuracy previously. His predictions in late November and early December of getting to the 400-450 range were really quite incredible. It was hilarious watching permabull (im long bull) trolls ripping on him and then all proven wrong when the price hit his numbers perfectly.   

To be fair, it was hilarious to watch his predictions days and weeks after the 450 also, all of them being totally wrong.

If that is the case, I've missed it, but of course no one is right all the time. For the last month I've been seeing him expect a return to the $400-$500 range, but giving a couple different scenarios, which was in line with the general pattern I've been trading after all the pops in bitcoins history. There has always been spikes, pops, and bulltrapy multi month stagnant zones that never quite get high enough before finally breaking down hitting the true bottom.

[rpietila]

Rpietila has had some incredible accuracy previously. His predictions in late November and early December of getting to the 400-450 range were really quite incredible. It was hilarious watching permabull (im long bull) trolls ripping on him and then all proven wrong when the price hit his numbers perfectly.   

To be fair, it was hilarious to watch his predictions days and weeks after the 450 also, all of them being totally wrong.

After 450, I called the 625 and 670 tops correctly. Then got caught by the uptrend, which in general fits the long-consolidation-before-capitulation prediction perfectly. Called that 800 will fail, which it did. Now calling a lower low before end of March, exactly the same as I have been saying all the time, same timeframe, same numbers. Of course this is only one scenario, but the one that I stand to gain the most if it happens.

Reading someone's predictions is difficult, especially if he is not a gambler but a position manager I take refuge in the fact that I have increased my bitcoin count by trading.

[merkin51]

What is meant by "final capitulation" in these circumstances? I take it you don't mean the actual completely death of bitcoin? Just the absolute bottom of a large crash, which precedes the next boom?

[magicmexican]

Reading someone's predictions is difficult, especially if he is not a gambler but a position manager I take refuge in the fact that I have increased my bitcoin count by trading.

Must be my bad then, i will read them more carefully from now on, maybe i need a pair of glasses or something

[MatTheCat]

Reading someone's predictions is difficult, especially if he is not a gambler but a position manager I take refuge in the fact that I have increased my bitcoin count by trading.

Must be my bad then, i will read them more carefully from now on, maybe i need a pair of glasses or something
[/quote]

To give rpietila is dues, he turned bearish when Bitcoin was making its first leg up past $1100 on Stamp. $370 I seem to remember him stating that his target was. I also remember the volume of abuse and ridicule that he got for just trying "scare folks into giving him cheap coins"

Since Bitcoin only went down to $380, that proves what an idiot he is and that everyone is right to doubt his Bitcoin market reading acumen!

[magicmexican]

He is also said something like "i've sold 400BTC in the last 3 days" @dec28, said "dont fall in the bulltrap, 500$ incoming" soon afterwards, and made a short-term prediction that "market would crash any time" that failed completely.

Or maybe i just misunderstood things and it went completely as planned and fell into the pattern of 30 different predicted scenarios.

Kudos to him for calling out 380 or whatever, (i wasnt one of those bulls who ridiculed him back then btw), but his track record of predictions isnt all that great like you make it sound.

[BldSwtTrs]

What is meant by "final capitulation" in these circumstances? I take it you don't mean the actual completely death of bitcoin? Just the absolute bottom of a large crash, which precedes the next boom?

Yes capitulation means the final stage of the bear market and the dawn of a new bull market

[Torque]

Sorry to be debbie downer, but I don't personally believe there is any super secret TA going here on that only one person is privy too (no offense rpietila, I believe that you are a pretty sharp person and of higher intelligence than a lot on this board, lol).

If one simply believes that this bubble rise-ATH-burst-consolidate-capitulate-newATH pattern is pre-destined and will play out similar to that of April 2013 and even July 2012, all one really has to do is extrapolate the previous bubble data from the charts using % ratios and relative time frames.  Not really that hard.  I believe that bubble rise/falls are macro patterns that are inevitable... but we participants don't have the foresight or knowledge to predict what will happen to cause the relative price swings and exactly when.  But if you believe in patterns repeating, it's enough to just "know" that history will repeat itself.

Will there be a final capitulation?  Sure there will, because there always has been in previous bubbles.

Did we just have it?  No one knows for sure, only future data will bear that out in hindsight.  But the timeframe just seems a little soon to call it the lowest low, and the ratio of the price fall compared to previous capitulation doesn't quite measure up.  But who knows, the market might be a little more resistant than it was in previous bubbles.  We could have very well seen close to the bottom.

[rpietila]

He is also said something like "i've sold 400BTC in the last 3 days" @dec28

Which I did, and am patiently waiting to buy back cheaper (the buys last night were to cover the short from a week ago).

said "dont fall in the bulltrap, 500$ incoming" soon afterwards, and made a short-term prediction that "market would crash any time" that failed completely.

By "any time" I literally meant that it can happen either imminently, or at any other time before end of March. If you sell from your own position, you don't incur time cost, so it does not matter if the buyback happens now or later - what matters is the %gain of your bitcoin stash. Sorry if you misunderstood that I meant it should go down right then.

I gained undeserved popularity for "nailing" the Dec 18 crash, where I used the same wording, meaning that the price will certainly go from 870 to below 500 some time in the future. Of course it did but I never said it would happen the following day from the prediction. It is difficult to time events, directions and magnitudes are easier.

And I still predict that 500 comes, and when it does, I will post to Adam's thread again. So everyone who bought higher fell into bull trap and I was right, ok? 

[magicmexican]

And I still predict that 500 comes, and when it does, I will post to Adam's thread again. So everyone who bought higher fell into bull trap and I was right, ok? 

I will be the first one to congratulate you on making a solid longterm prediction. I dont think there is a solid chance of touching 500 and below, but if it happens, well, congrats on nailing the 2nd bottom, that would be quite an achievement. Since in my eyes you are somewhat an underdog if you put most of your buy orders there. That takes some balls (or delusion, or both), so respect either way.

[ArticMine]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

On the surface this appears as sound advice. I mean with the recent bearish move and we are still above the trend line (577 BTC / USD For January 2014). Then there is the army of bears bearing iPhones coming out of Mother Russia. There is however one little problem, I just cannot trust that 2009 and early 2010 data.  So I am not selling any of my BTC (the bulk of my portfolio is in BTC) and I will pass on those short BTC / USD CFD's in my trading account. Instead I will sit back and watch the Putin Spectacle aka Olympic Ceremony starting about now.

If you take only Mt.Gox as your data, we are even more above the trendline.

My calculations do confirm the above. I ran both your data including the 2009, and early 2010 data, (reproducing your results) and the MTGox / Bitstamp data from July 2010 with a current trendline of 300 BTC / USD. Adjusting for Bitcoin inflation (basically applying the exponential to the market cap as opposed to the price) produced 328 BTC / USD. So yes the impact of removing the 2009 and early 2010 data is to give a stronger stronger short term sell signal. Having said that let us not get carried away here, there is still a trendline over 2000 USD / BTC for December of this year for the most bearish trendline.