I also requested some withdrawals, but unfortunately not all of them went through. I am aware of the alleged issue with their automatic payment system. Will update this as I get the funds (I thought this could be a statistically significant sample due to the large number of withdrawals) ordered received delay
1 1 25.1.2014 19:37 100 0 48+ hours...
1 2 25.1.2014 19:39 100 0 48+ hours...
1 3 26.1.2014 9:12 1 1 *instant*
1 4 26.1.2014 9:16 10 10 *instant*
1 5 26.1.2014 9:18 50 50 *instant*
1 6 26.1.2014 9:24 50 0 24+ hours...
1 7 26.1.2014 9:25 49 0 24+ hours...
1 8 26.1.2014 10:19 20 0 24+ hours...
1 9 26.1.2014 10:28 1 0 24+ hours...
1 10 26.1.2014 15:27 10 0 24+ hours...
1 11 27.1.2014 7:32 20 20 *instant*
1 12 27.1.2014 7:36 30 30 *instant*
1 13 27.1.2014 7:38 49 49 *instant*
1 14 27.1.2014 7:41 49 49 *instant*
1 15 27.1.2014 7:56 49 0 12+ hours...
1 16 27.1.2014 8:00 14 0 12+ hours...
1 17 27.1.2014 13:27 11 11 *instant*
1 18 27.1.2014 13:28 25 25 *instant*
1 19 27.1.2014 13:30 48 48 *instant*
1 20 27.1.2014 13:31 47 0 1+ hours...
1 21 27.1.2014 20:29 24 24 *instant*
1 22 27.1.2014 20:32 46 46 *instant*
1 23 27.1.2014 20:34 78 78 *instant*
1 24 27.1.2014 20:36 60 60 *instant*
1 25 27.1.2014 20:50 66 66 *instant*
1 26 27.1.2014 20:51 69 69 *instant*
1 27 27.1.2014 20:57 68 0 1+ hours...
1 28 27.1.2014 21:48 17 0 1+ hours...
1161 636
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I shorted (leveraged out my tits of course) at 817, I hid my stop loss at 821, behind a 1500 strong ask wall at 820.
Problem was that I had earlier made a thread when Bitcoin was at 790, stating to go long Bitcoin until 815-820, then short Bitcoin. I got in the usual heated debates with the usual bull-tards that are only capable of seeing up the way, but I was pretty certain I was on to a winner here. I went out for a walk, came back in, and was incredulous at this sudden totally irrational and unforseeable volume spike pushing Bitcoin up to the 830s.
As you may imagine, both my prediction thread and my inbox was flooded with 'well-wishers' congratulating me on my 'pro-call'
I am currently short, but I was gambling on the 765 support not holding (which it didn't), but the 750 Ask wall on Stamp slipped totally from my memory. I am still in the green, but no dazzling gains to speak off.
Yes it was quite hilarious that my totally unbullish action in Gox sparked the other whale to panic and the herd in Stamp followed and your prediction failed as bitcoin gained 5%, whatisit - 500 million dollars market cap.. <3 Bitcoin  Btw I had a BTC400 ask wall in Stamp in 750 but pulled it when it crashed towards it. Actually should have kept it in place though... I'm actually thinking that we could possibly see a crash of 20% starting from 815 in the next 24 hours. Anything smaller than that I would not buy as bitcoin is in a precarious position. |
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There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes.
I hear you And you didn't ban BTC in Russia either right ?  No comments on the last one  And yes of course I was able to buy back the coins higher in the following rally, but that does not change the fact that the whole operation was a loss of quite a sad magnitude... |
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Why not SHOTR, rpietila, as it has never been clearer that bitcoin is going to be worth much less than it is now. Using our proven martingale maxleverage SHOTR strategy you could become even more wealthy, as is confirmed by our facts and all the bad and confirmed news.
I am with the Most Eminent Highness Crytpo Majesty Goat, in that I never short. Selling 3% is about the most definite statement of bitcoin's current overvaluation that I can bear to execute. |
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Haha .. nice confession! And probably a smart move, if a little on the late side. That ship is sinking ... So was the plan to start a stampede and cash out on another exchange after it chased Gox up ? (Good idea ) And was it you that dumped after this failed to materialise and we got a dose of bad news today instead ? (Probably another good idea) Or something else ....  There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes. |
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So it was you who soiled my short sell that looked such a surefire bet!?
Interesting to know!
LOL, I suppose you covered it at a loss then  It is dropping like a stone as we speak.. Perhaps it's good time to forget the worries and celebrate the fact that we have 2 million bitcoin users in the world! |
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There is again time to update the figures. The methodology in OP is quite good, and this time I think we could actually quantify how many users the different channels bring and how large is the overlap.
- Count the number of users from all exchanges and subtract the overlap
- Count the number of addresses used and their balances
- Compare the figures and estimate number of users
- Check known large holders and add their holdings, add other 10k+ holdings according to power law model
- Fit the cohorts according to the distribution model
Today I have made the new distribution analysis. - The number of blockchain addresses with a balance of BTC0.001+ was 1,026,000. This is a 71% increase from the last calculation 2 mth ago. - Number of MyWallets and even the Mt.Gox userbase also showed similar increase. - The exponential trend of bitcoin adoption would show a 53% increase over 2 months so these figures seem realistic. - Due to the shortage of people helping me, I was unable to effectively calculate the other metrics. - I estimated that the number of bitcoin users has just reached 2 million users milestone (+66% from 2 months). - There is no evidence of significant holders increasing or reducing their position, or of new such holders emerging, so that was left quite intact. - Number of bitcoins increased by 250,000. - Bitcoin exchange rate dropped by -20%. - Other holdings were fit to the distribution model, which results in the following distribution: 27. Jan 2014
| #People | #Bitcoins | #TotalBitcoins | | 46 | BTC10k+ | 3.6M | | 820 | BTC1k-10k | 2.4M | | 10k | BTC100-1k | 2.8M | | 68k | BTC10-100 | 2.0M | | 250k | BTC1-10 | 0.8M | | 550k | BTC0.1-1 | 0.2M | | 690k | BTC0.01-0.1 | 0.0M | | 430k | BTC0.001-0.01 | 0.0M |
Total: 11.8M bitcoins (0.5M bitcoins assumed lost) There is less holders than before in the category of BTC70+. The number of holdings smaller than this increased. The number of bitcoin millionaires, previously estimated 930, decreased to 790 (-15%). Their combined wealth is 5.9M bitcoins, which is 50% of all bitcoins. |
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Now: Arturo Fuente Figurado abt 10cm. I have lately enjoyed the short ones. The rally yesterday was unfortunately caused by me  I was trying to negotiate a withdrawal of EUR 300k from Mt.Gox. Due to their troubles, it seemed that I would not receive the money on time so I had to buy back the coins. I purposely used a market order because many people were understandably watching critically the widening spread and I wanted to get out before there would be a stampede. The stampede actually did happen  But now the situation is under control and the spread is back in manageable levels. That's why I share this with you. From this perspective the subsequent rally in Bitstamp and others was entirely ill-founded, and funny to watch. It is not really technical analysis, but there does not seem to be any momentum to get ahead. Typically these situations end with an accelerating crash, rather than picking up of the momentum. But we'll see, portfolios well balanced! |
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How many % of total what? Value in the world stored in it?
The world and everything in it is 100%. How many % is gold? (Discussing about gold in dollar terms is not only wrong, it is impossible.) |
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It is helpful if we totally rid ourselves of fiat as a measurement of value:
The market cap of gold is currently about 1.5-2% of market cap of the world.
That of silver is way less and Bitcoin is still less (0.003%).
When Bitcoin reaches its potential and becomes 10-50% of the market cap of the world (the position that paper sludge is occupying now and metals occupied thousands of years), will gold still be 1.5% of the world?
I think, yes. I see no much reason why not. It will start to be used in more decorative purposes, though, such as the Solomon's Temple which was overlaid with gold.
To uphold the price of gold (or anything), it does not matter if 95% think it is worthless. The rest can happily bid it up, and gold is a prime example of this.
Anybody care to discuss the role of gold in mathematical terms? How many % of total? And will the total go up or down with the introduction of crypto and the resulting free flow of money? |
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Out of all your uninformed posts, I will now shine in part a light on this one:
To start with, in 2000, the cost of production was a LOT lower than today as well. This article here shows the only chart on the cost of gold mining I could find. It says the "cash cost" of mining gold has risen from approximately $130 in 2000 to $727 in 2012,
it's not my job to make you understand better.
You have demonstrated again and again over your last posts that you are very uninformed about the topic of gold. You might have already bought it 20 years ago, but you certainly didn't learn a lot about it in those 20 years. After reading uninformed post over post from you about gold, I finally couldn't take it anymore, hence this post of mine... maybe somebody else can learn something from it.
Wow, you sure schooled me User705 pretty much explained very clearly and logically why your only argument above is wrong. Everything else you said was more or less you expressing that you think I am ignorant. That did not exactly support your claim well.
Your answer, while not completely wrong, is mostly beside the point here, and I really can't be arsed to explain in detail why. Another poster clarified with a spot-on answer.
Rant over, calming down slowly... calming down... lol!
I don't think you know what ELI5 means. I think you failed to understand the question. He did not ask for "in detail". I explained the why, not the how. The comments about gold mining costs being higher as a price support floor is invalid. First the only reason it's higher is because the higher market price led miners to invest in low margin mines.
Can you give me a source for that? It doesn't sound very logical to me No one is shocked here that you can't understand this basic concept. If you were half as smart as you thought you were, you would be a god. If you were twice as smart as you really are you might be able to understand basic questions and concepts. but for some reason (authority on BTC? fancy nickname? mighty post count?) out of all the people, a gold-newbie asks you for advice. Well, if he could hold apart the people who know from the people who don't know, he probably wouldn't have to ask in the first place, right? It's understandable.
Right. At first I was wondering if you were a troll but I really think you are just an ignorant kid who thinks he is hot shit cuz he read 4! not 3 but 4! whole Wikipedia articles from start to finish!!1!!111!. You are going to have a hard life kid unless you find a better path. Your 2/3 of an ox of gold and your l33t skills wont take you to wall street. Wow, you sure gave him a-beating, didn't you? |
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It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.
Don't want to hijack your thread but I'm very curious, and asked you on pm also (but no answer*): Don't you feel unsafe with that amount of money in banks? And by real estate, you want one property or a whole building of apartments / condos (investing so you can take rent) *Also don't want to step the line Most people think that there are "safe" investments and "unsafe" investments. This is a fallacy. Every investment has a profile of risks and uncertainties, and they differ among asset classes, jurisdictions etc. |
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rpietila - when you speak of final capitulation, it sounds kind of drastic.
I'm imagining you are not saying we're going to zero, as this wouldn't fit with any of your long term predictions.
And that rather, you just mean the final leg down to the bottom in order to complete the whole series of moves down from the double top.
At which stage we begin a new rally? Am i correct so far?
How long does it take, and how far down does it go?
Have you any links to threads where maybe you discuss this final capitulation in detail?
Thanks in advance.
Final capitulation is the consummation of the downtrend that started from the double top. After that the new uptrend will start, and we will make a new ATH. It is possible that we already saw it in Dec 18th but I think it's yet to come. It is not necessarily the lowest price point (382 so far), but certainly below 600, perhaps even 300. I don't know if there is a thread on this alone |
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It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.
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Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...
Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down It's becoming true...  The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force. Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation. The final capitulation will commence when it's evident that we cannot break the ATH again. With or without news. If we do break it, though, there will not be capitulation as we know it. Simple. The evidence so far points to the coming capitulation. One bad news can cut bitcoin in half now. |
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rpietila, does the activation of your supernode mean the you will start the Supernode Alternate Reality Game?
do participants get membership cards or pins or cufflinks or whatever?
That will be appropriate when bitcoin hits $1.4/m BTC, as promised. It's called leadership by doing. We start by doing something that we think is worth it. Then the others can follow. But doing takes time, it cannot be achieved in a day. That's why I activated before 1.4/m BTC. In a few months you will see. |
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When you save you "must" mine, I say you "must" get a better financial planner. No financial planner would have my goals. If they did, they would be institutionalized. Also, I can't afford to hire anyone smarter than me, and I won't hire anyone dumber than me. Wisdom. (Except I never had a job that would pay $300k) |
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I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:
y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
Rē = 0,922424
Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.
The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.
We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.
The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
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I still have so many coins that for me paying much over 400 is not worth it.
Don't be so easily discouraged. You may be rich now, but if you are patient and diligent, you can become obscenely rich. Do not despise small gains. A penny here, a penny there. It adds up over time. Suppose that in future an opportunity for dramatic gains arose which required 10001 coins, but you only had 10000 coins liquid. Such a tragedy, for want of King Richard's nail! I am envisioning that all the bold and brave bitcoin owners will be such connected that if you have a good enough project, you can tap into unlimited wealth through your friends and their friends. So that it is only the quality of your proposal that determines whether you can pursue it, not your personal finances. Of course it is still better to have 10000 coins than just 10, because you can do things without asking anyone. At least in theory.. I have spent 2 months for a certain project now which does not involve spending anyone else's money, and still it's not finalized Even though I could make more money by trading bitcoins etc., for my personal goals the time for that is over. I am moving on to the scenario where I will be obscenely rich even with the current number of bitcoins, and selling enough bitcoins to hedge for the scenario that it does not happen. |
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Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...
Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down It's becoming true... The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force. what is this, dealer doublespeak? Plain and honest words, as usual. When everyone else thinks that 800 is the new 130 and there is no way to go but up, it is time for a 50% grinding haircut and THEN we can go on. I think that the passing of time has left not many even thinking of this possibility, yet the new money seems unwilling to take position and we have been sliding down. I think it is more probable now than ever that this will happen. The difficult part is to know, where exactly to buy. I still have so many coins that for me paying much over 400 is not worth it. If the bottom is in 500, I may have been right but missed the opportunity. |
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