rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

rpietila, does the activation of your supernode mean the you will start the Supernode Alternate Reality Game?
do participants get membership cards or pins or cufflinks or whatever?

That will be appropriate when bitcoin hits $1.4/mBTC, as promised.

It's called leadership by doing. We start by doing something that we think is worth it. Then the others can follow. But doing takes time, it cannot be achieved in a day. That's why I activated before 1.4/mBTC. In a few months you will see.

[pa]

There is so much to be done, and the rise of bitcoin gives us unprecedented means for doing it. Perhaps never before have freedom-loving people had so much power in their hands.

I think the most important thing one could do to improve the world is purchase large media outlets (television, newspapers, websites) and install upper management that is committed to telling the truth without fear to expose the corruption at the heart of bankster-run governments. Waking up the people from their slumber is crucial.

[BitChick]

There is so much to be done, and the rise of bitcoin gives us unprecedented means for doing it. Perhaps never before have freedom-loving people had so much power in their hands.

I think the most important thing one could do to improve the world is purchase large media outlets (television, newspapers, websites) and install upper management that is committed to telling the truth without fear to expose the corruption at the heart of bankster-run governments. Waking up the people from their slumber is crucial.

Wikileaks already does this to a certain degree right? 

I think we should support those that are doing good deeds around us, and hopefully not become just like the greedy people we despise so much when have the same power they have.  Perhaps we underestimate what money and power can do to a person?  Humility will be something we will need to pray for.

[TERA]

Im confused. If "800 is the new 130" then doesn't that mean there is nowhere to go but DOWN? 136 was the TOP in may and 130 was seen on the way to 66.

Also, why engage in the futile effort of trying to predict exactly where a bottom will be in advance and missing coins if you're wrong? Why not just use like a 4 hour macd?

[Tzupy]

TERA, the market moves at least twice as slow than in April - May 2013, so IMO it's similar to 29th - 30th April.
But back then there was a lot of seller pressure, because so many coins showed up during corrective wave A (down to 50$ twice).

[Marbit]

TERA, the market moves at least twice as slow than in April - May 2013, so IMO it's similar to 29th - 30th April.
But back then there was a lot of seller pressure, because so many coins showed up during corrective wave A (down to 50$ twice).

so another leg up again before a final downside move?

[billyjoeallen]

TERA, the market moves at least twice as slow than in April - May 2013, so IMO it's similar to 29th - 30th April.
But back then there was a lot of seller pressure, because so many coins showed up during corrective wave A (down to 50$ twice).

so another leg up again before a final downside move?

possibly, but remember you're swimming against a four year logarithmic trendline current of 1000%. and we haven't even hit the bottom elbow of the technology adoption S curve yet. You really want to risk missing the vertical move straight up?

[TERA]

TERA, the market moves at least twice as slow than in April - May 2013, so IMO it's similar to 29th - 30th April.
But back then there was a lot of seller pressure, because so many coins showed up during corrective wave A (down to 50$ twice).

so another leg up again before a final downside move?

possibly, but remember you're swimming against a four year logarithmic trendline current of 1000%. and we haven't even hit the bottom elbow of the technology adoption S curve yet. You really want to risk missing the vertical move straight up?

I already have enough btc locked away so that if btc goes to all the dreamy estimates that the bulls keep thinking up then I will be a bajillionaire. Meawhile the trading I am doing now with the rest of my btc enhances my short term wealth and protects me in the case that something wrong happens. It is a win win.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

possibly, but remember you're swimming against a four year logarithmic trendline current of 1000%. and we haven't even hit the bottom elbow of the technology adoption S curve yet. You really want to risk missing the vertical move straight up?

The "vertical" move of the S curve is an exponential curve plotted with linear y-axis. That's what we've been seeing for 3-4 years now. The S-curve isn't supposed to look vertical in a log chart.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

I think the most important thing one could do to improve the world is purchase large media outlets (television, newspapers, websites) and install upper management that is committed to telling the truth without fear to expose the corruption at the heart of bankster-run governments. Waking up the people from their slumber is crucial.

Yeah, let's start bitcoin totalitarianism. As much as I want to see the banksters' influence wane and encourage an open and really free press, it sends shivers down my spine to read "install upper management" and "telling the truth". It's usually the first step from a bad government to an even worse government when a small group of people wants to dictate the truth by installing their likes in the media channel and suppressing other opinions.

Freedom of speech FTW!

[kkaspar]

I have already vacated most of my time, so the next thing to do, is to make it count for more by establishing a physical community with a congress centre in Estonia.

I would certainly visit this physical community, because I'm estonian, but I don't think that Estonia is the best place to build this community. Estonians are skeptical people and the physical community would increase their doubts on the cultish behavior that they see regarding BTC.
There was a lot of interest regarding BTC among estonians, but it didn't become very popular here. Most people here consider BTC as an scam because of the distribution issues and the transparency issues with the market system.
Mostly people here see me as an "enemy of bitcoin" who doesn't like the choo choo chanting of the religious zaelots. But when dealing with fellow Estonians, then I'm being taken as an idealistic fool when I tell them that there actually is a future in privatized monetary systems

[pietje]

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down

It's becoming true... 

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

[rpietila]

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down

It's becoming true... 

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

The final capitulation will commence when it's evident that we cannot break the ATH again. With or without news.

If we do break it, though, there will not be capitulation as we know it. Simple.

The evidence so far points to the coming capitulation. One bad news can cut bitcoin in half now.

[hdbuck]

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down

It's becoming true... 

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

The final capitulation will commence when it's evident that we cannot break the ATH again. With or without news.

If we do break it, though, there will not be capitulation as we know it. Simple.

The evidence so far points to the coming capitulation. One bad news can cut bitcoin in half now.

that is exactly my feeling too. the point is people still believe in a non stop rally until it hits $1M.. anyway yeay to 'cheap' coins!
+1 sir

[kehtolo]

rpietila - when you speak of final capitulation, it sounds kind of drastic.
I'm imagining you are not saying we're going to zero, as this wouldn't fit with any of your long term predictions.
And that rather, you just mean the final leg down to the bottom in order to complete the whole series of moves down from the double top.

At which stage we begin a new rally? Am i correct so far?
How long does it take, and how far down does it go?

Have you any links to threads where maybe you discuss this final capitulation in detail?

Thanks in advance.

[rpietila]

rpietila - when you speak of final capitulation, it sounds kind of drastic.
I'm imagining you are not saying we're going to zero, as this wouldn't fit with any of your long term predictions.
And that rather, you just mean the final leg down to the bottom in order to complete the whole series of moves down from the double top.

At which stage we begin a new rally? Am i correct so far?
How long does it take, and how far down does it go?

Have you any links to threads where maybe you discuss this final capitulation in detail?

Thanks in advance.

Final capitulation is the consummation of the downtrend that started from the double top. After that the new uptrend will start, and we will make a new ATH.

It is possible that we already saw it in Dec 18th but I think it's yet to come. It is not necessarily the lowest price point (382 so far), but certainly below 600, perhaps even 300.

I don't know if there is a thread on this alone

[kehtolo]

Great, so more or less as i was thinking then.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

[rpietila]

Now: Arturo Fuente Figurado abt 10cm. I have lately enjoyed the short ones.

The rally yesterday was unfortunately caused by me  I was trying to negotiate a withdrawal of EUR 300k from Mt.Gox. Due to their troubles, it seemed that I would not receive the money on time so I had to buy back the coins. I purposely used a market order because many people were understandably watching critically the widening spread and I wanted to get out before there would be a stampede.

The stampede actually did happen But now the situation is under control and the spread is back in manageable levels. That's why I share this with you. From this perspective the subsequent rally in Bitstamp and others was entirely ill-founded, and funny to watch.

It is not really technical analysis, but there does not seem to be any momentum to get ahead. Typically these situations end with an accelerating crash, rather than picking up of the momentum. But we'll see, portfolios well balanced!

[MatTheCat]

Now: Arturo Fuente Figurado abt 10cm. I have lately enjoyed the short ones.

The rally yesterday was unfortunately caused by me  I was trying to negotiate a withdrawal of EUR 300k from Mt.Gox. Due to their troubles, it seemed that I would not receive the money on time so I had to buy back the coins. I purposely used a market order because many people were understandably watching critically the widening spread and I wanted to get out before there would be a stampede.

The stampede actually did happen But now the situation is under control and the spread is back in manageable levels. That's why I share this with you. From this perspective the subsequent rally in Bitstamp and others was entirely ill-founded, and funny to watch.

It is not really technical analysis, but there does not seem to be any momentum to get ahead. Typically these situations end with an accelerating crash, rather than picking up of the momentum. But we'll see, portfolios well balanced!

So it was you who soiled my short sell that looked such a surefire bet!?

Interesting to know!

[rpietila]

So it was you who soiled my short sell that looked such a surefire bet!?

Interesting to know!

LOL, I suppose you covered it at a loss then    It is dropping like a stone as we speak..

Perhaps it's good time to forget the worries and celebrate the fact that we have 2 million bitcoin users in the world!