Bitbulls what do you think will be the top on this pump?
2500 USD for this summer period But contrary to all previous tops, I don't see a big collapse happening. There will be a significant correction but we will not have a long dead valley anymore. |
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This is looking like the start of a new bull run.
2500 USD by September.
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Even if it crashes to 100 I wouldn't sell.
The general consensus of the newcomers around here is that they are greedy and ignorant, looking to make a quick buck. I believe in what BTC stands for, and I believe it will ultimately succeed.
i also believe in bitcoin and what it stands for BUT... how much money have you invested in bitcoin? 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 USD ? the problem is , when you invest a large amount of money in something and it starts going down or even worth it crashes down you normally would panic ans start selling to prevent further bigger losses. and if you really believe in bitcoin you would immediately buy back at lower prices if you don't want to lose the opportunity. 150,000 USD I lost 50,000 USD if I would sell now. The key is not to invest more than what you can afford to lose without panicking and let it play itself out. It will either become worthless or become very valuable. Wow are you rich? how can you risk 150,000 USD in Bitcoin? If you can afford to lose 150,000 USD they you must be a millionaire by now. Care to tell us how you got so much money? Launch a business that is helpful for a lot of people. |
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Even if it crashes to 100 I wouldn't sell.
The general consensus of the newcomers around here is that they are greedy and ignorant, looking to make a quick buck. I believe in what BTC stands for, and I believe it will ultimately succeed.
i also believe in bitcoin and what it stands for BUT... how much money have you invested in bitcoin? 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 USD ? the problem is , when you invest a large amount of money in something and it starts going down or even worth it crashes down you normally would panic ans start selling to prevent further bigger losses. and if you really believe in bitcoin you would immediately buy back at lower prices if you don't want to lose the opportunity. 150,000 USD I lost 50,000 USD if I would sell now. The key is not to invest more than what you can afford to lose without panicking and let it play itself out. It will either become worthless or become very valuable. |
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Either BTC will die around the same time as the collapsing FIAT system, or it won't. If it does not die, you will be happy to have some and will not care how much you paid for them.
Assets that will keep value through the FIAT system collapse are not so many. Diversify and place your bets wisely.
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In fact, this is pretty much consistent with my thoughts, though I'm thinking about real economy. We see that oil collapsed ("a key economic commodity"), that necessarily means that the whole economy behind it is collapsing. They say that oil production has actually increased, but could it have increased to such a degree as to make oil prices fall twice as much?
I guess the answer is no
Exactly. The real economy is collapsing. And that means the financial system. The illusion of perpetual growth is dissolving and it means the dissolution of the orion fraud financial/monetary system that requires endless exponential growth just to stay even. Digital money on bank accounts will be frozen at first and then wiped out either through bail-ins or converted to a new IMF currency. The effect on this (100% certain and short-term) event on bitcoin is extremely hard to predict for the period right after the crash/reset. It is not clear if bitcoin will be able to withstand the huge wave of new users that wake up to the atrocious fraud of the globalists' financial system. It is also unclear what will be the reaction of the globalists regarding the use of bitcoin. All in all, confronted with the unimaginable end of this "monetary experiment" that started 100 years ago, we must admit that we don't know how things will play out and which role will play either precious metals or bitcoin in that historical period. However, it seems clear to me that the odds of retaining purchasing power going through the collapse is much greater while holding PM and BTC as compared to FIAT, stocks and most of the overinflated real estate. |
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It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?
Relevant to what? If there is no trust, there is no Bitcoin. You may not trust in the US dollar, but being a US citizen (for example), you must pay taxes in that currency (the same is true for other monies as well), so you have to get some dollars (whether you like it or not)... We are talking about storage of value beyond what is needed to pay government and local needs. When the USD collapses, the question of paying taxes in USD will go together with it. If americans are lucky, they will be imposed a new currency and will be able to exchange their USD to buy some of it, losing at least 90% of their current purchasing power in the process. If they are not lucky, their entire savings will be wiped out. I guess you can easily explain why the US dollar has been recently appreciating towards other major currencies All major currencies of the western world will collapse in a few weeks or months, driven by the collapse of the USD. What they are doing relative to each other is meaningless at this stage of the collapse of the system. People who hold the strong belief that the system cannot break will be surprised very soon. For the USD to appreciate against other currencies, all it takes is a higher than normal demand for USD. High demand for a currency can come from many sources, including an unwinding of USD denominated assets and positions outside the USA. The rise of the USD has been happening while commodities were going down very quickly. There are trillions of various forms of (mostly OTC) derivative instruments that are based on commodities and most of them all over the world are denominated in USD. The collapse in the energy and other commodity sector has triggered a silent derivatives counterparty bomb that we can’t see because of the intentional opacity of the OTC derivatives market. But you don’t have a 50% collapse in a key economic commodity like oil – a commodity which has $100’s of billions in OTC derivatives securities wrapped around it – without some kind of counterparty default tsunami that has been triggered. We are actually in the middle of a meltdown of the western financial system. The absurdity of the derivative exposure of all the players remains mostly hidden, but with the collapse of the greek economy and debt, the collapse of the energy and other commodities, it will very soon be acknowledged that the positions of each player CANNOT be unwounded without leaving everyone bankrupt. The game is literally up. People going into September without diversification away from FIAT and into directly held precious metals, bitcoin or sustainable estates will be left with nothing. The shooting up of the USD in the past few months is a sign that the great unwinding has begun. After the peak of the USD index, the descent to 0 will be incredibly more sudden. Completely vertical in fact and happening in a matter of hours or days. The debate of this post should be about what is an optimal ratio to hold between Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and land outside US. Not about when the USD will collapse. |
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It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?
On the other hand, the complete disintegration of the trust in the USD is baked in the cake and only a few weeks or months away.
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So as the value now will go up, the price will follow. I think we will never see bitcoin below 200$, i think its very foolish to think that the next price increase will be a bubble, because now we got strong economic support for bitcoin, not only forum shills.
Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition. Bitcoin pretending to be money and having nothing behind it but trust is the embodiment of a bubble vehicle. So the next price spike can be nothing more but an attempt at... An attempt at framing another bubble Bitcoin does not have only trust behind it. If it had only trust, how would it have earned that trust in the first place ? This argument is very ignorant. |
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BTC will outlive the USD by far, therefore it won't make any sense to sell it for USD.
Buying BTC is about disinvesting from USD, not about anticipating a USD profit.
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Those are nice charts. I thought the defeat of the bearwhale at 300 (in Oct?) would set a new bottom, but no luck. I am still optimistic about bitcoin, but seriously doubt that boom times of the run up to 1000 will be back any time soon.
I hope I'm wrong, and that the title of your thread is right on!
Good Luck!
you're not wrong. it's actually nice to see that there are still realistic people here that look at facts, instead of living in a fantasy world regarding the bitcoin price. we just need patience. that's all. $1000 is a matter of years before we see it again. The USD will crash this year before september 23. Bitcoin should be well over 1000 by october 2015. |
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All the bears selling and shorting now is really going to create a huge buying pressure once we have a good solid period of green candles. Once all of your coins are gone only the holders and miners will have bitcoins and thus creating a smaller daily supply. I really thank you guys for loading this spring.... when the bitcoin market turns around it's going to be quite an epic price explosion.
We heard that one for how many months now ? The coins are never "gone". What is being sold today can be again sold tomorrow by the buyers of today. How do you know the buyers of today are holders ? If their expectations are not met, they might very well sell as well. When you pull too strong on the spring, it bends and breaks. The majority of the coins being scooped up now aren't being bought by Joe public. At extreme price levels it is the big players who buy low. That is just how markets work. /r/bitcoin is spammed with troll and doom and gloom. /r/bitcoinmarkets is near universally bearish We are gearing up for a flash crash followed by a high volume reversal even exocytosis cannot miss. Where it happens who knows. But like klee I will continue to buy all the way down! Maybe, but there is no indications that we have reached or will soon reach an extreme. |
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All the bears selling and shorting now is really going to create a huge buying pressure once we have a good solid period of green candles. Once all of your coins are gone only the holders and miners will have bitcoins and thus creating a smaller daily supply. I really thank you guys for loading this spring.... when the bitcoin market turns around it's going to be quite an epic price explosion.
We heard that one for how many months now ? The coins are never "gone". What is being sold today can be again sold tomorrow by the buyers of today. How do you know the buyers of today are holders ? If their expectations are not met, they might very well sell as well. When you pull too strong on the spring, it bends and breaks. |
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good morning, 200 in couple of weeks or so... just to remind the perma-bulls that trashed me before, this is the 3 years chart of Bitcoin's price (1W candles) tell me if it doesn't look like a bubble... and don't tell me this time is different:  If this chart is an accurate description of the situation, we are now between fear and capitulation and we should go lower than 200 during the despair phase. |
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I just bought some more at $380...i couldnt help myself. Anyone else doing the same? How could you be passing on these prices???
It's called trying to catch a falling knife. Bitcoin has been falling hard and there is no sign of reversal. Why not to buy at 300 USD instead ? |
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I'm now looking at other threads on this board... man, I thought I was a perma-bull but at least with some "common sense".... now starting to realize that common sense has completely left this sub forum, and other perma-bulls will keep drinking the koolaid all the way down until bitcoin hits some obscenely low price. It's getting pretty sad now, all people have left to say is "Just wait for the bounce!" and "Any time now, you'll see!" Yeah, been waiting.
No I will not sell my holdings in a down market, that would just be stupid. I waited too long to do that now. They're going to cold storage. But now I'm sitting this completely out, watching the remaining circus unfold.
Will probably leave this sub forum for a couple months. I'm sure I'll come back here and the perma-bulls @ $100 will still be going "Just wait for the bounce! Any day now, you'll see!"
Disclaimer: I still strongly believe in Bitcoin's future. Just can't believe the silliness in the market that I'm seeing right now. It's destroying market confidence.
Do you know how much money you can make by shorting BTC from 380 to 100 USD ? Just go to bitfinex and send your BTC to take your position. |
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I see a lot of desperate permabulls and cultists trying to lure newbies into their crumbling pyramid scheme.
Where ? There are some in this very thread. Scroll upwards and look at previous pages. But to be fair, the writings of cultists and permabulls are entertaining. Especially in a bear market. So I appreciate their input. I truly do. Permabears calling for crashes and the end of Bitcoin outnumber permabulls 12:1. Thus the bear market is created  Yes, I mostly see desperation and gloom being sold here. Not really people "luring newbies"... |
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I see a lot of desperate permabulls and cultists trying to lure newbies into their crumbling pyramid scheme.
Where ? |
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Thank You Peter R! I will add this model to the toolkit when I try to explain to people why sometimes (2013) it rises 100x and sometimes (2012) hardly at all. Randomness.
Randomness is not the only possible explanation. Log-logistic adoption is another possibility for a declining rate of appreciation. So it is not sufficient to say, "the model must be my fit, and randomness explains why the fit is off this year". The burden of proof is on the "fit" that fits the data less (despite being more complicated), i.e. yours. (I seriously think you are wasting your precious time, trying to argue with me about statistics. Tell me when I do likewise re: your strong point.) Define 'more complicated' mathematically? Would it be what you are more familiar with? Overfit is a problem if the curve fit or regression model is not correct. I am trying to help both of us avoid confirmation bias error. Even the concept of fit has a plurality of models. How are you so certain that Bitcoin adoption has not slowed?? You can say it is just a lull due to randomness, but how can you be so confident of that? I am trying to be objective. I see evidence it is slowing. It might be randomness, but it also might not be. I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it, because there are enormous barriers to adoption. P.S. I nearly aced my Theory of Probability and Statistics course 30 years ago. But correct I don't use it in practice. But that distinction seems to be irrelevant in this case, because we have to choose the correct model before we can apply statistical discipline. Or we need some very higher order statistical methods to try to determine which model is correct. It is simply impossible to "choose the right model" with certainty. It is impossible to say today if bitcoin adoption has slowed or not. - Statistically, the past is the best prediction of the future : it would mean adoption has not slowed and will catch up through sudden big moves of mass adoption and we will follow an exponential trendline which is the best model for the past so far. - Empirically, adoption in 2014 has been disappointing which could mean we are invalidating the current model, yet there are preparations being made that would allow a greater wave of adoption. |
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Flash crash on BTC-E where someone sold BTC as low as 328 USD !
Edit : some people sold as low as 308 USD on BTC-E while the price is 465 on stamp. What a strange exchange.
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