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61  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 08:09:46 PM
TheBitcoinChemist,

Please share with me exactly where you have received your information on climate change. Because while it appears that you do have some understanding of climate science and its effects, there are certain distinct gaps in your knowledge, and a lot of it sounds like it came right out of a libertarian playbook, which naturally raises suspicions.

If you could share specific books you've read, or specific websites in which you collect information from, I would appreciate it.

That would require research into my own education over the past 30+ years.
62  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 08:03:30 PM
TheBitcoinChemist,

Please share with me exactly where you have received your information on climate change. Because while it appears that you do have some understanding of climate science and its effects, there are certain distinct gaps in your knowledge, and a lot of it sounds like it came right out of a libertarian playbook, which naturally raises suspicions.

If you could share specific books you've read, or specific websites in which you collect information from, I would appreciate it.
It's easier to refer them to this. If they don't bother reading it, don't bother arguing. People oblivious to science will remain in their religious bubble no matter how much persuasion attacks them.

This entire site is well written bunk.  Let me just address the first 20...

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"Climate's changed before" Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.  

Based upon what assumptions?  Their links don't really say, the larger link is just more conjecture.  

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2 "It's the sun" In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions  


Again, they produce no evidence for this statement, and it's provablely false.  Long distance IR measurements of Mars by NASA says that the surface of Mars has warmed over the past 30 years or so also.  Did we do that too?
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3 "It's not bad" Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.  

"The economic impacts of climate change may be catastrophic, while there have been very few benefits projected at all. "

Yes, the impact of climate change may be catastrophic, but very few scientists consider the effects of climate change on the economy.  It's simply not their field.  So the reaosn that there hav been very few benefits projected is actual economists consider predicting the effects of warming over  a century to be futile, so very little has been published on the matter at all.

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4 "There is no consensus" 97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.  

To be precise, 97% of climate experts do not contest that humans are a cause of global warming.  That does not conclude that they all agree thathuman activities are the predominate cause.  Furthermore, the idea that a scientific consensus, even if true, represents reality is historically false.  This is just a short list of the crackpots who truned out to be correct, contrary to the scientific consensus of the age.

http://amasci.com/weird/vindac.html
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5 "It's cooling" The last decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record.  

I won't contest this, but that data point isn't actually an argument for human caused global warming.

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6 "Models are unreliable" Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.


While it's true that the models were tweeked until they could accurately reproduce measurements we have seen in the  past, it's not true that those same models were able to predict the warming over the next several years, much less decades.  This is the great failing of the models, they simple arien't good enough

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7 "Temp record is unreliable" The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.  

Yes, and they don't agree with each other.  Traditionally, the surface measurements are used in the computer models because there is simply more data than sats, but the surface monitors can be screwed with by changes in the immediate environment they reside, which is why they are the unreliable set to use.  Sat data does not, and has not, reported the same degree of warming, although they have reported some warming.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/
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8 "Animals and plants can adapt" Global warming will cause mass extinctions of species that cannot adapt on short time scales.  


Says who?  Who has the expertise to say that animals cannot adapt over a century by migration?  And so what if they can't?  More species go extinct yearly than we have ever caused.

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9 "It hasn't warmed since 1998" For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.  

No contest here.

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10 "Antarctica is gaining ice" Satellites measure Antarctica losing land ice at an accelerating rate.  

Sure, does not mean that climate change is human caused.

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11 "CO2 lags temperature" CO2 didn't initiate warming from past ice ages but it did amplify the warming.  


CO2 didn't initiate this trend either, since records show that the warming trend began well before the Industrial Age.

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12 "Ice age predicted in the 70s" The vast majority of climate papers in the 1970s predicted warming.  


The vast majority of the climate papers in the 1950's predicted cooling, which wasn't a bad bet since even at the time the global average was over teh long term mean.

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13 "Climate sensitivity is low" Net positive feedback is confirmed by many different lines of evidence.  

 And contradicted by many others.

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14 "We're heading into an ice age" Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years.  

The Little Ice Age, while not technically a true ice age, dropped the average temps by half a C in under that time frame.  Tens of thousands died of starvation directly, or due to complications of desiese related to malnourishment as a direct result of the fall in agricultural productivity during this time frame.

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15 "Ocean acidification isn't serious" Ocean acidification threatens entire marine food chains.  


Sure, and so did Acid Rain when I was a younger man.  Didn't really pan out, did it?

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16 "Hockey stick is broken" Recent studies agree that recent global temperatures are unprecedented in the last 1000 years.  

But not over the past 10,000 years.  Again, roots have been found on islands north of Canada under several feet of permafrost.
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17 "Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy" A number of investigations have cleared scientists of any wrongdoing in the media-hyped email incident.  


Some scientists, others have lost their jobs.

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18 "Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming" There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.

No contest here.

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19 "Glaciers are growing" Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water.  

Most being the oparative word.

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20 "Al Gore got it wrong" Al Gore book is quite accurate, and far more accurate than contrarian books.
 According to whom?  The movie "An inconvient truth" was so full of provablely false data points that a court ordered that it could not be shown to public school students because it might ingrain falsehoods into their education.
63  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 05:21:10 AM
TheBitcoinChemist,

Thank you for your post. However, there are some serious issues with it, and I can't give it the attention it deserves right now. But I will address it soon, I can assure you. As a preview, one of the serious issues with your statement is related to the inability for habitat relocation to occur due to barriers as species migrate northward. The consequences are grave, and it will affect the viability of some of the positives you see in global warming.

I wasn't referring to the migration of all species, I was referring to the migrations of human populations.  Once upon a time, the middle east was a cooler & wetter climate, and supported a much larger population than it does today.  It supports what it has today because of the ability to import food in trade for oil.  Without that, those populations will fade away in one manner or another.  The same is true for cities in the US such as Los Vegas or Reno.  The region cannot support the population that resides there, and without modern industry (with oil as a major industrial input) society would be unable to continue to move food grown in the plains states to those western cities.  For that matter, the plains states are plains because they were too dry to support natural tree growth, so even much of the water used there to grow crops wouldn't be possible without machines capable of drawing water from deep aquifiers and pumping liquid fertilizers hundreds of miles through pipelines.  Our greatest near term problem isn't climate change (particularly if it is actually caused by CO2) because our modern world runs on fuel with a diminishing return-on-energy investment.  Although there remains much oil in this world, the "low hanging fruit" of easily removed oil is almost depleted.  We depend upon ever more technically complex methods of extraction just to maintain the system as is.  By definition, that which is unsustainable will not continue indefinately.  When the (energy) costs of removing more oil out of the ground exceeds that which the oil can provide, no more will be removed and the great CO2 threat ceases to continue to be a threat.

I don't know when 'peak oil' really becomes a bigger threat, but I know that it must; eventually.  At least the climate change fanatics can rejoice that the resulting resource wars and population die-offs due to starvation will finally reduce the impact of humanity on the environment.

This is a great post, because it's true!

But regarding species migration, species are being forced to migrate northward (in the northern hemisphere) at a rate that is not sustainable and far exceeds their ability to adapt. They will hit barriers (mountains, cities, bodies of water) and will not be able to migrate further. They thus become extinct.


Only if humanity choses to do nothing.  I find this rather unlikely.  We already capture and move wolves for lesser reasons.  How difficult would it be for us to introduce species to the northern side of a mountain range?

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This reduces biodiversity, and most importantly for the discussion here, deplete the ecosystems their ability to provide ecosystem services, one of which is pollination. In short, everything goes to hell.


That is an unsupportable assumption.  There is literally no evidence to suggest that any species cannot migrate fast enough to outpace global warming.

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By the time the northern latitudes become temperate for agriculture, so much bad stuff has happened that it is decidedly not a good thing.


Again, you assume.  I shall again mention that tree roots have been found on islands north of the Canadian tundra under several feet of permafrost.  I have thousands of years of cliamte history to suggest that nature adapts quite effecively.  I doubt that you can find a single data point that says otherwise, unless you are going to claim that the islanders who lived on Easter Island to be part of nature.
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Furthermore, precipitation patterns will change in an unpredictable way.

So what?
64  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 09, 2012, 05:11:56 AM
It's precisely because the system is so stable that modifications to that system are verboten in the majority of minds here.  The old addage, "don't fix it if it an't broke" applies here.

This is pretty antithetical to the hi tech world. Are hard drives broken now? They work amazingly well. Yet, lots of people are out there making improvements to them. I just don't see how it makes sense to say that a piece of technology works well, so it shouldn't be improved. Moreover, bitcoin is broken when it comes to using it in a commercial setting. Ten to thirty minute waits just aren't acceptable. Sure there are ways to deal with that, but those are hacks.

Bitcoin takes care of money. What about the rest of the financial transactions that manage economies, like exchanges, stocks, bonds, bets, options, futures? You need higher resolution timing for those, and probably lots of other improvements as well. I don't think anybody is recommending baking this stuff into the Satoshi client. There will be alternative coins, and they'll compete on the market.

All of those 'hacks' can be independently improved without affecting the bitcoin protocol, and the additional functions of an economy are intended to be seperate from the bitcoin protocol.  It's simply not necessary to include those things into the protocol.  Sure, hard drive tech is always improving, but techies have been trying to get the Internet to upgrade to IP6 for well over a decade, but that is not going to happen until the majority of the users have personaly evidence that IP4 broken.  The same is true with the bitcoin protocol, I don't want you screwing with a good thing & my opinion actually matters because you can't change anything without the consent of the majority of node owners.
65  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 05:05:25 AM
I must advise you that Ad-Hominem and condescension are tools I rarely see used successfully, and they never work for an educated audience.

I'm confused, so I going to ask this...

Which one of them are you talking too?  Or are you talking to both?
66  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 05:04:01 AM
TheBitcoinChemist,

Thank you for your post. However, there are some serious issues with it, and I can't give it the attention it deserves right now. But I will address it soon, I can assure you. As a preview, one of the serious issues with your statement is related to the inability for habitat relocation to occur due to barriers as species migrate northward. The consequences are grave, and it will affect the viability of some of the positives you see in global warming.

I wasn't referring to the migration of all species, I was referring to the migrations of human populations.  Once upon a time, the middle east was a cooler & wetter climate, and supported a much larger population than it does today.  It supports what it has today because of the ability to import food in trade for oil.  Without that, those populations will fade away in one manner or another.  The same is true for cities in the US such as Los Vegas or Reno.  The region cannot support the population that resides there, and without modern industry (with oil as a major industrial input) society would be unable to continue to move food grown in the plains states to those western cities.  For that matter, the plains states are plains because they were too dry to support natural tree growth, so even much of the water used there to grow crops wouldn't be possible without machines capable of drawing water from deep aquifiers and pumping liquid fertilizers hundreds of miles through pipelines.  Our greatest near term problem isn't climate change (particularly if it is actually caused by CO2) because our modern world runs on fuel with a diminishing return-on-energy investment.  Although there remains much oil in this world, the "low hanging fruit" of easily removed oil is almost depleted.  We depend upon ever more technically complex methods of extraction just to maintain the system as is.  By definition, that which is unsustainable will not continue indefinately.  When the (energy) costs of removing more oil out of the ground exceeds that which the oil can provide, no more will be removed and the great CO2 threat ceases to continue to be a threat.

I don't know when 'peak oil' really becomes a bigger threat, but I know that it must; eventually.  At least the climate change fanatics can rejoice that the resulting resource wars and population die-offs due to starvation will finally reduce the impact of humanity on the environment.
67  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 09, 2012, 04:29:39 AM
Hey guys,

This thread is about environmentalism, and that certainly includes climate change. However, as I've pointed out in an earlier post, the bulk of environmentalism is scientific study and proactive conservation (as opposed to turning in plastic bottles behind the supermarket), and as such, denying anthropogenic climate change with material sourced from the latest libertarian websites really doesn't qualify as climate science, and by extension, doesn't qualify as science in any respectable way.

If you guys truly want to debate this issue, feel free to start a thread about it. Before doing so, I would earnestly suggest both of you get up to speed on the following topics so we have a baseline to start with:

- Climate change induced precipitation patterns and how it will affect agriculture
- Milankovitch cycles and ice age patterns
- Ice albedo feedback loops
- The Oregon Petition, Frederick Seitz, and various libertarian documents masquerading as science

For this thread, I'd prefer we stick to real science. Thanks.

I, for one, do not deny that the climate is changing.  Nor do I deny that the trend is towards a warmer climate.  I won't even contest that human activity contributes in that general direction.  What I will deny, because I actually understand the sciences involved and how complex they are, is that we actually understand enough about the biosphere or the global climate to make the claims that some people will do.  I most certainly oppose the efforts to use the force of governments to compel people to alter their behavior under the claims that "the science is settled".  The science is not only not settled, the best & brightest openly admit that they don't really understand it all well enough to make a solid determination.  It's the politically minded hacks that compare climate change skeptics to holocaust deniers.  And even if the science were actually settled, there is very little evidence that we could actually slow that warming trend to any significant degree without killing off a large percentage of the population of the planet either by starvation or warfare.  

And all that before we even consider the possibility that a moderate rate of change (which is what we have actually been getting despite decades of climate change histeria, yes I'm old enough to remember the early 80's and the claims that Mexico and some of the Southernmost US states would actually be inhabitable by now) might actually be a net positive for humanity at large, even if it does prove to be a net burden on people who live in sub-tropical coastal regions.  There are massive tracts of arable land that could be opened up to productive agriculture and human settlement in the northern-most latitudes, predominately in Canada, Greenland & Russia.  See, there is one thing about global warming predictions that are not often talked about by those who warn against climate changes; and that is that the rising temp trends are not going to be evenly distributed across the latitudes.  Because of the way that greenhouse gases work (i.e. shortwave infrared light from the sun passes through mostly unattenuated to strike the Earth's surface, while longer wave IR tends to be 'refracted' back towards the Earth like shortwave radio waves are reflected by the E-level of the ionosphere, thus functioning like one of those mylar emergency blankets) the retained heat tends towards spreading across great distances.  So while the equater does get most of the sunlight and would warm somewhat, higher latitudes would tend to receive more IR heat from warmer latitutes than they radiate back.  Thus, most of the warming is going to occur in regions where a slightly warmer climate could make the difference between only growing winter wheat, or growing corn instead.  The climate is always, always changing.  As recently as 400 years ago there was still an inland sea in the Western US states, where the salt flats are today, that contributed to a wetter climate in that region than exists today.  Things change and populations migrate.  There is no reason to expect that it will be different after the Industrial Revolution, in that regard, than it was prior.

Also, keep in mind that the Earth is a closed system, and any externally gained carbon is less than trivial even over millinia.  At some point in Earth's history, it was a molten ball of rock surrounded by a mixed gas atmostphere.  There were no trees, and oxygen is never found free under such conditions unless all of the available carbon was already consumed.  So, at one point in Earth's history, all of the carbon (or nearly all) that we worry today about being released into the atmostphere was actually in that old Earth atmostphere.  So the idea that there is some point at which the amount of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere starts a positive feedback loop within this closed system to destroy life on Earth is both rediculous and provablely false on that data point alone.  For if it were true, how in the hell could live ever have evolved to start with?  I'm not saying that humans  are going to want to live that way but we are little more than a minor infection to the Earth's biosphere.

EDIT: I got the short & long wave IR's reversed in the above description, but other than that it is correct.
68  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 08, 2012, 10:56:36 PM
We would need to stop burning anything for at least a few hundred years. No cars, no heating your home, no cooking.  Even then it would continue to hotter for centuries.


Expecially since those activities are not the predominate causes of climate changes. 

You know what is?


This wouldn't cause it to "continue to hotter" for centuries, though. Maybe it will in millions of years when it becomes significantly more intense, but not in centuries.

Dude, the Sun's output varies over an 11 year cycle, and a longer ~300 year cycle; and those are the two that we are aware of.  The Sun occilates, and it takes less than a 1% variance to swing the entire planet from an ice age into the Medieval Warm Period.  You have heard of that, correct?  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

While the claims on Wikipedia are that the MWP were not as warm as the modern era, the facts say something different.  For example, it's a known fact that there were grape vineyards & wineries north of London in Britain, with legacy streets still named "Vine Street" that harken back to that age, while grapes won't grow in those same regions today.  Also, north of Canada is a wide expanse of islands hidden in the permanent ice beyond the arctic circle; the roots of trees have been found on many of those islands, hundreds of miles from where trees grow today.  The Norse settled Greenland during the MWP, and for decades children were taught in school that it was named as a fraud in order to get settlers to join the founders.  In reality, it would have been pretty green in the southern end of Greenland during the MWP, and we now know that those settlers fared pretty well for generations on grassfed sheep before the Little Ice Age slowly killed off their grasslands & sheep and drove them into the sea in order to survive.
69  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 10:43:39 PM
Average block solving time will never be reduced to anywhere near 10 seconds.

Care to elaborate? It'll be easier to do if we know why it's impossible.

It's not impossible, just astronomically improbable.  Those are arbitrary parameters decided by Satoshi, and in all the time since there has not been any proposal for altering them that could offer more than a marginal improvement, if that.  For example, the 10 minute block interval could have been 6 minutes, 12 minutes, 15 minutes or any other arbitrary number of seconds; but it could not have been a small number of seconds because the interval was chosen as a balance between transaction confirmation time and the expected future network propogation latency.  10 seconds, or even 120, is too fast and would result in a great deal many more network splits & orphaned blocks; potentially causing a congestion feedback. 

Also, the block interval time cannot be variable, due to the interlocking structure of the blockchain's design & purpose.  If block intervals were variable; 1) the block reward would either have to be variable also, which would make the task of verifying that the block reward was a valid amount quite difficult for an individual node to perform or the distribution rate of newly issued bitcoins into circulation would no longer be predictable, and that would be bad; and 2) the relatively common blockchain splits would be significantly more difficult to resolve in any automatic fashion, which is the only way it could be done.

Of course your points make perfect sense, but isn't this circular reasoning? You're saying that the target time can't be reduced because of network splits and orphaned blocks, but those are exactly the kind of things these proposals are trying to address.



But those aren't actual problems, the protocol is self-healing as it is.  You're trying to debate a new solution to a non-issue.

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Satoshi is a genius, and it's uncanny how well his somewhat arbitrary constants worked right off the bat. It would have been unwise of him to add in extra complexity to reduce those numbers. But time has passed, the system has proven itself stable, and it's time to consider even more amazing things that can be done with these core concepts. Of course, pressing issues shouldn't be neglected, but some people are going to want to work on more experimental stuff, and I think that's great.


It's precisely because the system is so stable that modifications to that system are verboten in the majority of minds here.  The old addage, "don't fix it if it an't broke" applies here.
70  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Guns on: August 08, 2012, 09:36:51 PM

Good God!  168 yards!  With a handgun!  I'm calling bullsh*t.  That's a football field and a half.  At that distance it would have been difficult for an adult with 20/20 vision to determine which one was the cop!   (excepting, of course, that one assumes that the one next to the cop car is the cop.)  That distance is a respectable rifle shot.
71  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is environmentalism, really? on: August 08, 2012, 09:28:50 PM
We would need to stop burning anything for at least a few hundred years. No cars, no heating your home, no cooking.  Even then it would continue to hotter for centuries.


Expecially since those activities are not the predominate causes of climate changes. 
72  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 07:49:14 PM
Average block solving time will never be reduced to anywhere near 10 seconds.

Care to elaborate? It'll be easier to do if we know why it's impossible.

It's not impossible, just astronomically improbable.  Those are arbitrary parameters decided by Satoshi, and in all the time since there has not been any proposal for altering them that could offer more than a marginal improvement, if that.  For example, the 10 minute block interval could have been 6 minutes, 12 minutes, 15 minutes or any other arbitrary number of seconds; but it could not have been a small number of seconds because the interval was chosen as a balance between transaction confirmation time and the expected future network propogation latency.  10 seconds, or even 120, is too fast and would result in a great deal many more network splits & orphaned blocks; potentially causing a congestion feedback. 

Also, the block interval time cannot be variable, due to the interlocking structure of the blockchain's design & purpose.  If block intervals were variable; 1) the block reward would either have to be variable also, which would make the task of verifying that the block reward was a valid amount quite difficult for an individual node to perform or the distribution rate of newly issued bitcoins into circulation would no longer be predictable, and that would be bad; and 2) the relatively common blockchain splits would be significantly more difficult to resolve in any automatic fashion, which is the only way it could be done.
73  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 05:56:56 PM

Adding a block index to the block gives you the ability to move forward, but it also gives you full random access.  Why bother with a second link when you can instantly seek by index?

Are you talking about an index within a block?  No, too big times too many full clients.  A better idea would be what I mentioned earlier, a web accessible block index on a regular webserver.  It's not like any particular client needs to trust the index, as it just references blocks that can be downloaded and verified over the p2p network.  Also, the external index could do the 'last harder hash' index after the block is produced, and this wouldn't require any changes in the codebase or protocol.  For that matter, every full client already indexes everything, and that is how blockexplorer.com works.  The trick is just setting up a machine readable standard for light clients to query the indexing server, and then hunt those blocks down over the p2p network.
74  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 05:49:46 PM
I stopped reading at this point.   Ten years of headers is about 40 megabytes. One hundred years is 400 megabytes. A boring computer _today_ could validate 100 years of headers in a second or two. And even this could be skipped up to a fixed reference point.

This proposal is primarily about ddos-resistance. A protocol's ddos-resistance is related to the largest plausible validation effort, not the expected (or actual) effort. So if I give you a 20GB set of headers and tell you it's the largest chain... you'd apparently reject it without even looking, since larger than 400MB is implausible.

There are interesting challenges in Bitcoin, reading headers isn't one of them.

My mission is to eliminate every last hard-coded global parameter in Bitcoin, so that it grows into an indisputably scalable and universal protocol. On the chopping block are "10 minutes," and "difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks."


I assure you, that neither of those parameters are up for debate.

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Two of the things I'm going to propose next (absorbing orphaned forks, and self-adjusted difficulty without timestamps) are going to potentially to create a much larger number of headers, so I wanted to explain my solution to that first, especially starting with efficient validation for lite-clients. If it's not interesting, then no need to read ahead - but save your place.

Orphanced forks don't need to be 'absorbed' into the main chain, and self-adjusting difficulty without timestamps is too complicated to impliment across a massive, distributed p2p network with connections that vary by orders of magnitude.  This will not fly, and your current proposal isn't likely to be incorporated into the main chain, either; without some overriding gain.  Incremental gains need not apply here, it's about two years too late for such things.
75  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 05:45:07 PM
How does a lite client know which block chain is the largest? By iterating through the whole chain from front to back? Ick!

I stopped reading at this point.   Ten years of headers is about 40 megabytes. One hundred years is 400 megabytes. A boring computer _today_ could validate 100 years of headers in a second or two. And even this could be skipped up to a fixed reference point. There are interesting challenges in Bitcoin, reading headers isn't one of them.

Also, from this discussion it sounds like some people are confused wrt difficulty. The difficulty of a block is its target, not the hash value.


If you stopped reading, how do you know? But seriously, I believe the idea here isn't to address practical problems with the current Bitcoin parameters, but to explore concepts that will be needed if Bitcoin morphs in interesting ways. For instance, if average block solving time is reduced 60-fold to ten seconds, can your smartphone still keep up with all those headers?



Average block solving time will never be reduced to anywhere near 10 seconds.
76  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 08, 2012, 03:33:26 PM
Ok, so I read this thread again and figured out the part that I had been missing.

When creating a new block, the skiphash points to the most recent block with a value higher than the previous block, not the block with the previous highest value ever.

I'm working through the implications of this, but at first glance, it does not appear to produce a chain of links that leads to a high value block.

Suppose the back-link from the current head looks like 000xxx (value 3). We also include an 'up'-link to the parent of the most recent block that looks like 0000xxxx (value 4). If you skip to that parent block, then it will have an 'up'-link to the parent of a block that looks like 00000xxxxxx (value 5). And so on, until you get to the parent of the largest block for which there's no up-link.

Suppose you start at that largest block, which looks like 00000xxxxx (value 5). It contains an up-link, either to a previous block with value 00000xxx (value 5), or to one with lower value. You can skip your way to the highest-value hash in every sub-interval of history.

The problem is that when you follow that first "up" link, the block you find there does not have a link to a value higher than itself, it has a link to a value higher than its predecessor.  If you want to find a block with a value higher than the block you are on, you have to go forward and then "up" from there, and forward links aren't possible.


Of course they are, just +1 on your block count, then "up".  Or just change the higher last hash to one that is higher than both the last hash & the current one.  The idea of choosing to be higher than the last hash is to avoid duplicating the existing liner structure of the blockchain.
77  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: First Bitcoin Transaction, 0 Confirmations :( on: August 08, 2012, 04:53:50 AM
patience.  By choosing to not pay the fee, you can expect it to be delayed until it's aged enough to be picked up by a miner as a free transaction.
78  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Guns on: August 08, 2012, 04:37:28 AM
Can you print bullets ?

Don't need too, I can recycle the cases of fired rounds a hundred times, and the bullets themselves can still be made of lead ball.  It's not like this kind of thing is ever going to be accurate enough to justify a precise, jacket bullet.
79  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The High-Value-Hash Highway on: August 07, 2012, 10:38:14 PM

Consider this, you get a block, block Z.  You do not have block (Z-1), so you check the skiphash and ask for block Y.  You also don't have block (Y-1), so you check the skiphash again and ask for block X.  Now block X is one that you do have, so you stop there.  How much should you trust blocks Y and Z at this point?

...

Unless I'm wrong, of course.  It could be that the skiphash chain rules add up to a much stronger context than is immediately apparent to me.

Branch and Bound! You've now established that block X is at least a common point in both chains (assuming you already have a chain, it's the genesis block if you're starting from scratch). Block Y is the largest hash in between X and Z. You can now repeat the process on either sub interval. Each time you go down a level, there are more blocks to check, and you get an increasingly precise estimate. If you keep going, eventually you will process every block.

I imagine that there would be a lite client that says "Estimated work: 1 bajillion megahashes. Likelihood: 76%". The likelihood number increases, very rapidly at first, and slowing down at 99%, 99.99% and so on. If it hits 100, then you have validated the entire chain like a full node.

This also allows you to quickly find the true fork point between two chains, even ones that have had difficulty changes along the way.

What do you do with the subinterval exactly?

You don't know any blocks between X and Y or Y and Z.  You don't know how many there are,

Actually, you would know how many there are, because the current block number is part of the header.

I'm starting to see value in this idea.

EDIT: but what happens if the difficulty drops or levels off ofr a long peroid of time, what prevents a uselessly large interval?
80  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Wiki Weapon on: August 07, 2012, 10:30:46 PM
http://defensedistributed.com/bitcoin/

Apparently they already do accept bitcoin donations.

Just sent 17.76 BTC.
Whoa man, $170? Do you know these people? Is there any proof whatsoever that they will make any effort to go through with the cause stated on the website?

I'm gonna stop selling bridges

I've already checked, and the guy that managed to make an AR-15 lower receiver is involved in this effort, so I already know that these guys aren't just looking to make a quick buck.

Besides, my money, my business.
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