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Many posts discuss the possibility of exchange earnings with selling Bitcoin (and buy later). Other posts discuss the Bitcoin exchange rate, it seems that many agree there is a strong upward tendency and the volatility is hard to predict. It seems dat selling Bitcoin results in a serious probability of an opportunity loss. Selling Bitcoin can only be motivated by an (partial) exit. Do you agree?
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Hello, After successfully predicting BTC moves in 2016 here on the forum, I have a new set of 2017 predictions that I'm using to trade the current move. 1. Rise to $1,200-$1,300 (Current move) 2. Correction to $800-$900 level and range trading for a while 3. Rise to $1,500 4. Correction to $900-$1,000 and range trading for a while 5. Continued rise to $2,000 by end of year tldr; BTC will double this year after making a couple of moves up and down. That is similar to my predictions that I just made a few days ago. But recently I read a news that Chinese people are buying more bitcoins and it has reached the highest peak compared to before. With this movement probably by the end of January bitcoin will reach Two Thousand Dollars each and by the end of the year a 10k dollar price will shock the market by the end of the year. Too hard to believe that bitcoin could reach $10k this year. I agree on bitcoin that it could hit 2000$ by the end of the year but that $10k seems impossible. Bitcoin will need 100 years to go on that price. The price is the equilibrium of supply and demand. Things happen in the market (acceptance), we just need a small increase in demand to reach 10k ('small' is related to the market of alternatives ( e.g. gold). I Think the (future price / current price) = (current price / pizza transaction price). Think big! |
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Hello, After successfully predicting BTC moves in 2016 here on the forum, I have a new set of 2017 predictions that I'm using to trade the current move. 1. Rise to $1,200-$1,300 (Current move) 2. Correction to $800-$900 level and range trading for a while 3. Rise to $1,500 4. Correction to $900-$1,000 and range trading for a while 5. Continued rise to $2,000 by end of year tldr; BTC will double this year after making a couple of moves up and down. Wow, I haven't been introduced to bitcoin during the beginning of 2016 and I wasn't able to see all the predictions made but I certainly take not of this good sir. Hopefully your predictions stay true again this time and I think it would be better for me to just keep on earning and holding on to my bitcoins for the time when it goes to 2k at years end. Cheers to a great 2017 to all of us! J just read this prediction (newbie), very interesting, can you explain the set of arguments of this prediction? Because i'm interested in the underlying empirical framework. Thank You! |
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If Bitcoin price pumps from $1300 to $3000 in few hours, nobody would make profit from it, because the exchanges wouldn't allow you to sell your Bitcoins and make the fast profit, it would bring a big loss for exchange sites.
Do you agree with this?
If exchange itself is not trading, they basically don't care More specifically, they care for fees, and trading fees obviously come from trades, so when there are abrupt price movements the trading volume spikes too. And it doesn't matter whether the price flash crashes or flash surges. So, they are in fact interested in volatility and price being "alive", therefore prices pumping to 3,000 dollars per coin would provide exactly that, i.e. insane levels of volatility Agree: 1. Most fees are a percentage, so higher price, higher fee 2. When one analyses the fee structure, it will show that a sellingfee is a higher percentage than a buying fee. |
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If you said bitcoin is the leading currency in the crypto currency then everyone will be agree, but if you are talking about comparing bitcoin and Dollar or Euro then bitcoin will never defeat them, fiat money is controlled by the government and basically got no limit because they can just create more, while bitcoin got a limit, so there wont be enough for bitcoin to dominate fiat and of course the government will never agree with the idea of bitcoin become a leading currency
May be that's the point: Bitcoin got a limit, so we can trust that, fiat money has no limit, so we are delivered to a third party. This may result in an increasing trust in Bitcoin. Trust/confidence comes on foot but goes by horse. |
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Its possible to get rich with Bitcoin In the sense that it's price would triple or 4x up in coming years. It's better to save btc to these days as a term of investment and gain profit to it.
We van refer to the BCG-matrix: is Bitcoin a star, will it be a cash cow? (Question mark) Time will tell. |
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The market value of Bitcoin is over 20 billion EUR. This is huge increase but it’s stil insignificant in relation tot he total money supply (M3 according tot ECB). Is there an opinion in the community about the influence of increasing market capitalization (lets’s say over a quadrillion) on currency markets, real economy etc. ?
What we have seen is just a drop in the ocean of potential growth. The amount of fiat sitting on useless stocks, derivatives and other nonsense assets is going to eventually come to the capital B blockchain (and some will go to alts too of course, but BTC will remain number one). I love this pic that really shows how much potential we have to keep going up:  Very impressive, it shows the potential, but also makes modest! |
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The market value of Bitcoin is over 20 billion EUR. This is huge increase but it’s stil insignificant in relation tot he total money supply (M3 according tot ECB). Is there an opinion in the community about the influence of increasing market capitalization (lets’s say over a quadrillion) on currency markets, real economy etc. ?
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I think not, because it's a niche. A public support for crypto will be in favour of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a greater acceptance, due to the public discussion and publications. Only insiders are considering Ethereum, new entrants will choose Bitcoin. New entrants will let the Bitcoin grow.
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This argument have been discussed several times and equally laid to rest. Its a simple fact that was even included in the White paper if I am correct that the amount of BTc required to purchase any amount of commodity will reduce as the value of BTC increases and that will solve the issue of limit in the quantity available to go round considering that some will even be lost forever.
Clear, but i assume that 8 digits and the possibility for micropayments is a relevant constraint. In that case it will noy completely solve the issue of quantity. I read about a 9-digit, but isn't that a change of concept? |
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Indeed, Bitcoin can get lost, so it will get lost. In that case in the end (at last after the mining-process is done) the BTC-supply will be a negative growth function. Are there any empirical data/maths about this decreasing process? Will this negative growth be significant for excluding "Bitcoin as a leading currency"?
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The economic reach of Bitcoin is an interesting subject of discussion. In the end there will be a maximum of 21.000.000 BTC. BTC is a eight-digit number.
I suppose that a currency can only be leading if it has the possibility ta pay in small amounts, equivalent tot e.g. dollarcent or eurocent. This statement limits the range of BTC, will the satoshi be the future euro/dollarcent?
In that case the maximum money supply wil be BTC 21.000.000,00000000 is e.g. EUR 99.999.999.999.999,99 (by the way: interesting exchange rate).
The money supply in the Eurozone (M3) is over EUR 10.000.000.000.000
So without any constraints, the structure of the BTC satisfies the necessary condition.
Let's inventory the other constraints.
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It is definitely not a bubble. Barriers in the market are vanishing, see Japan, China and Russia will follow in 2018, even in US there are new posibilities.
This indicates BTC is yet to start to reach the potential value. We can expect a major rise in value, due to fundamental elements. We just can wait fort he tipping point.
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