You seem to be presuming too much.  If you sell on the way up, and the price does not end up coming back down, then it does not matter how patient you are.  We have had a lot of those kinds of examples in bitcoin's history and we are going to continue to have those kinds of examples in which people are selling and expecting to buy back cheaper... so do I need to list the many examples of that? 

Do you really believe that it is a good idea to sell some of your bitcoin when you don't have enough in the first place, and then just wait it out?  Sounds retarded to me, especially if you have not yet reached a status of over accumulation and especially with a paradigm-shifting asset like bitcoin that still seems to be in its earliest of adoption phases, and when the largest wealth redistribution known to mankind is in the midst of happening, why would you want to fuck around trying to trade that unless you have already assessed that you have enough or that you have too many?

You can do what you want if you are of the belief that patience is the solution to some diptwat who sold too much too soon.


It is a bad idea and a bad practice, but you are free to do what you like.  No one is stopping you, but if you try to argue that it is a good idea then you are first not even in the right thread for such topic, and you also are not likely engaging in good kinds of long term investment practices, especaily when it comes to BTC.


Sometimes if guys sell too much too soon, and they get opportunties to buy back, they will need to figure out how to not get too greedy, and it is largely a losing game to try to accomplish the buy backs, and surely it is better to make sure that your fees and/or taxes are covered, and to me it seems that the one of the ONLY ways to really ensure success with these kinds of tactics is to be a professional trader(gambler) who knows how to make appropriate hedges of his bets, or the more realistically practical way is to make sure that you have enough or more than enough BTC when you sell any so that if you end up selling any, you have already figured out that you are not selling too much too soon, so you are not necessarily planning (or expecting) to be able to buy whatever you sold at cheaper prices.

So, for example, if your goal is to get to fuck you status.. and you consider fuck you status to be able to passively withdraw $6,666 per month on a sustainable basis, but you are torn about which metrics to use because if you use traditional measurements that include a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, then you would need to have 61 BTC to reach such status, but if you use some more advanced metrics that involve a BTC withdrawal  rate of 10% per year, then you would ONLY need 24.4 BTC.

So you may well be torn about whether fuck you have enough coins to reach fuck you status, especially if you might have a number of coins that falls somewhere towards the bottom of the range versus being at the top of the range which is more reassuring.  So in any of those cases in which you have somewhere between 24.4 BTC and 61 BTC or even higher quantities of BTC, you could reasonably conclude that you have enough BTC or you have more than enough BTC, and you therefore would be able to feel more free to start to sell some of your BTC and/or to fuck around with waiting for the possibility of buying back lower from whatever reasonable amounts that you end up selling because you are within a kind of range in which there are ways to calculate that you have enough or more than enough BTC.  And, if those valuations are made based on bottom prices (such as the 200-WMA) rather than current spot prices, then the calculations are going to be more accurate and/or reasonable than  a guy who might have 10 BTC and who is calculating that he has enough based on his on criteria, yet based on BTC spot prices.

A lot of guys make those valuation calculations based on spot prices and then they end up selling too many BTC too soon and then they also might end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon and they don't have enough BTC(or money) to really live off of their stash under their own stated criteria.. and it seems kind of dumb to me to conclude that you have some kind of an ability to live off your BTC stash but you are eating into the principle, and you don't yet have enough to buy a Lambo or whateve other premature excitement that you want to exercise.

I doubt that a guy who has those similar goals of wanting a sustainable $6,666 per month income, and ONLY has somewhere in the ballpark of 10 BTC has the luxury of concluding that he has enough coins or more than enough coins.  He needs to get into a proper range of over-accumulation of BTC before he might start to sell or shave off some of his coins..... and of course, each of us needs to to come to our own calculations regarding what our goals might be and figuring out that we have not sold too many coins too soon or concluded that we are richer than we are merely based on BTC spot price that we know to be quite outrageously volatile. .. and why should any of us want to spend a good amount of time to accumulate a decent BTC stash and then convert it into dollars because we want it to be more stable.. but then we no longer have a sufficient amount of bitcoin.. which is the place that our value should mostly stay.


This part sounds right, but your overall response seems to be flip-flopping.


This part is correct too.  Maybe I just misunderstood what you were saying earlier?

That is kind of funny - especially guys who are already used to doing pushups or some similar exercise might be more willing to join the competition - and maybe it you were not doing pushups, you might not want to participate.


I think that you should do modified pushups in order to build yourself up to full and regular pushups.

You should be able to do 100 modified pushups. and you modify them to your level.

If you are doing an exercise that is too hard, then you have to modify it to your level and work your way to the more advanced level.

I understand how the pushups can hurt and they can be difficult.. I have pretty much been in pain for 56 days, and I have not skipped a day.. and even though I have been improving, it is not easy, it hurts, it makes me tired, and frequently I don't want to do my pushup sets, even though I continue to do 5 sets per day the last 5 weeks.

I think that you are mostly correct, but you are saying it in a little bit of a strange way, so let me try to rephrase a bit.

Yes.. ONLY 1 merit is needed in order to go from newbie to Jr member... so let's just stick with the activity versus the number of days registered versus the post count.

The most activity points that a member can earn per activity period is 14, so since it appears that JessieJames13 registered just prior to the expiration of the earlier activity period, he was able to earn 14 activity points for that earlier period by posting at least 14 posts as long as he posted at least one time in the earlier activity period, and even if the 13 other posts were to happen in the next activity period, even though he was not registered on the forum for 14 days.

So, as long as overall JessieJames13 has an average of 1 post per day, he can earn 14 more activity points for each activity period as long as he posts one time during that activity period.

Let's say that JessieJames13 only had 30 posts at the beginning of the next activity period, then he would ONLY have 30 activity points at that point (but that would be enough for him to get promoted to Jr Member), and so any additional post (beyond 30) that JessieJames13 makes up to 14 in total for the next activity period will get him up to 42 activity points for that activity period which would be the max for any member being registered on the forum during 3 activity periods and posting at least one time during each activity period, even if the first activity period was a partial period, he still gets 14 points for that first period as long as he had 14 posts (an average of 1 per day for all periods subsequent to the 1st period, since the 1st period allows more than an average of 1 per day, but a max of 14).

There are members who had lost their rank because they delete posts and lost activity points, and maybe if they had ONLY posted one post within an activity period, and if they were to subsequently end up deleting that one post (or having the post deleted by a mod or a thread owner), they will lose 14 activity points.

Hopefully, I am overviewing all of this correctly and clearly enough regarding the main question which seems to be why JessieJames13 has more activity points than the number of days that he has been registered on the forum, and the question of when will he reach JR member status.. .. which reminds me, if JessieJames13 deletes several of his posts (or several of his posts get deleted by moderators), so that his total post count becomes less than 30, then he will not advance to Jr member rank until he gets his 30 posts.

Ok.  I admit it.  I might have overreacted, since now that go back and I reread your claims, they don't necessarily seem as shocking and/or bad as I had originally understood them to be..... and maybe I was just too irritated by any attempt to be "fair and balanced" when it comes to gold overtaking bitcoin - or any framing that bitcoin and gold are correlated in meaningful ways, especially since bitcoin has already historically been eating gold's lunch,  and is likely to continue to go in that direction... even if it might be some modest variation, like you seem to be suggesting, which I also read your initial post as being way more gradual than what you seem to be describing.. but yeah, there is a bit of bearishness to suggest that bitcoin is going to only 10x relative to gold in the next 8 years.. even though, like you specified, bitcoin would be 23xing against fiat and gold would ONLY be 2.4xing against fiat.. so yeah upon rereading it, I am not as outraged as I was the first time around.





I can see a trend... - you will never be happy




That is a good point.  I had not even noticed how those weekly candles are closing.

I usually don't like to call these kinds of matters, as early as you were projecting it (since at the time that you posted that, the weekly close was still 8.5 hours away), and so far our highest closing candle was 4 weeks ago when it closed at $69,026.. so yeah, the odds are looking greater and greater to close above that current weekly high.. yet we still have 4 hours to go..

Still... even though we are appearing to have momentum, I hate to count my easter bunnies before the easter eggs hatch.


It is all happening simultaneously - especially since none of those other assets are going to be completely replaced by bitcoin.  It would mostly ONLY be removing the monetary premium that is getting inefficiently put into those kinds of assets that are not very good monetary goods... so yeah, they will still have various values and maybe even some monetary premium value, just not as much monetary premium as they currently hold, since bitcoin is more efficient in regards to being a better money and therefore deserving of the storage of monetary value.. .so it would be strange to suggest that bitcoin were to have any kind of monetary premium, even though any asset or money can get overvalued, especially during price pumps that end up going on too much and for too long.. so if BTC were to shoot up to $500k within the next 2-6 months, many of us might consider that to be too much too fast.. and maybe we could refer to that as a monetary premium, even though it is a short-term monetary premium not like the kind of monetary premium that a lot of current assets have because they are so pumped by the dollar and the fact that not too many folks (besides Phillip) wants to be holding their value in dollars.. (o..k.. sure i lie a bit since there still is a lot of demand for the dollar since it is the least bad of the large number of MOAR shittier currencies).

We don't need to know all of the specifics in order to attempt to assign realistic probabilities that we believe to be the case at the time that we make the prediction and with the information that we have at the time that we make the prediction.

Of course, if we are predicting 10 years out, then it takes quite a long time to find out which one of the scenarios ends up playing out and the one that plays out ends up becoming 100% and the others become 0%.. but we don't know until it happens.

Surely, we can run the same experiment with a shorter-timeline, and frequently we will see that even the scenario that we considered most likely to happen ends up not happening, but then surely if we divide them up into enough subdivisions, we might still see that we can group some of them and see that we might be directionally correct, but just not correct about the exact number.

Also on a 10 year timeline, there could be some significant happenings that end up contributing to our needs to make considerable changes to our numbers in certain ranges that we had previously selected. 

Let's go back to my original prediction.

Let say for example that in the next 6 months, bitcoin prices go to somewhere in the ballpark of mid $100ks, but then they spend the next 6-9 months bouncing around between $12k and $180k, so then those subsequent facts that were not known or realized at the time that I made the prediction would likely cause me to change some aspects of the prediction, even though I am still stuck with what I had said earlier, I can still revise my prediction for that future date that has become 9 years rather 10 years.. but then at the same time, I could also stick with my earlier numbers and conclude that either not enough time or enough significant events had occured to cause me to tweak my numbers.. and surely, since I was pretty specific and comprehensive in my numbers there are likely going to be some of the ranges that I might want to change or tweak at some point between now and 10 years from now.. and surely when we get to be around 8 years down the road, we are likely going to be moving closer to one or another outcome in which all of the others might either no longer seem relevant or maybe their numbers would go down to very low amounts based on likelihoods changing quite significantly.

For sure if the BTC price were in the range of $2 million to $10 million 8 years from now.. let's say that it is mostly bounding between $4 million and $6 million between 7 and 8 hears from now.. so then at that point, it would seem a quite waste of time for me to maintain such granular breakdown of the prices between 1) less than $10 and between $500k and $1million and the various points in between. I could probably reduce those 8 categories into 2-3 categories and while at the same time attempt to get more specific on categories 9, 10 and 11...

and this is not playing around with models and trying to be correct, because in the end, who gives any shits about whether I am correct or not, since my correctness hardly matters as much as some of the preparations that I might make that attempt to account for all of the possibilities in either price direction from whatever place I am at in the current moment, and I can create my plans and continue to execute my plans in such ways that attempt to continuously account for various scenarios in either price direction.



I personally believe that you are continuing to assign too much weight to some kinds of presumptions that the BTC price has to go up, and yeah, sure my base case is also that BTC price is going up forever, laura.. but still, it is neither inevitable and it is not even likely as high of a percentage as you might compromise and suggest that it is ONLY 98% rather than 100%.. and so even though you are free to believe and do whatever you like, I still think that you are living in a fantasy land if you are suggesting that the odds of up are 99% and the odds of down ar only 1% or whatever other seemingly outrageously biased framework you are maintaining in your thinking about the matter.

Yeah, sure I understand that many of us have hard times NOT thinking in black and white, because ultimately when the future ends up happening, some outcome will have happened to the exclusion of all of the other outcomes, but then we still might need some nuance in terms of how we outline the potential outcomes, whether we are talking 10 years down the road or whether we are just dealing with BTC price dynamics in a cycle by cycle basis.

Yes, I agree that bitcoin is amongst the best if not the best investment that we can make, and so in that sense it is an asymmetric bet to the upside in which there are great odds of ongoing and persistent upside performance, so the most that we can lose is 100% as long as we do not engage in leveraging and other forms of gambling/trading.

But having so many favorable aspects, any of who expect to be able to profit from our bitcoin, we have to be able to stay in the game and to balance our exposure to account for decent number of scenarios, whether short term of projecting further out, such as 10 years or longer.


Ok. sure, you can account for what people say, but in the end you have to figure out what you are going to do and to assign your own probabilities to a variety of scenarios.. whether we are talking about 2024 or 2030.. otherwise what are you doing?  who are you following?  People say all kinds of stuff that may or may not be very well thought out, and even $100k within 2024 is currently seeming a bit bearish.. same is true with the $1 million by 2030.. but whatever.. I don't have any problem accounting for what people say and what might be their various bases for what they are saying.


This thread is about price.


Ok... and if you consider yourself to be an investor rather than a trader, then where are you at in your investment journey?  Are you in your accumulation phase, or have you gotten enough.. and if you feel that you have enough, then sure, there are likely several kinds of considerations in regards to managing your BTC holdings.. including where you might be holding all or most of it, and then perhaps if you might have some BTC that you keep in hot wallets so that you are potentially using it from time to time.. .. and if you are not at a point of using your BTC you still might move your BTC from time to time in terms of places that you might accumulate it and then where you might later move it in terms of holding some of it or most of it in cold storage..


We have been $70k and supra $70k for the last couple of weeks, and so you are not being very adventurous there.. and surely it seems that you are just suggesting BTC prices will stay in the same ranges that it has been .. which yeah, sure that is fair enough since the halvening is only 3-ish weeks away.. .. and I frequently consider one of the safest predictions is to stick with the current price, even if there could be some variation.. give or take 5-10% or perhaps more.


Sounds pretty bearish.. but hey.. whatever.

I would suggest $120k to $180k in 2024 and then reassess from there to see (or verify) if buy support is able to keep up.


Also pretty bearish.. It seem that prices in 2025 are going to be higher (at least the cycle top likely to be in 2025), and so the bearish cycle is not too likely to come before 2026.. but still anything can happen.. .. and so maybe the cycle low might end up coming back down to challenge $100k-ish.. but not necessarily go back into 5 digits..

And, hey don't get me wrong.. I hardly give any shits.. I am just suggesting what I consider to be fairly likely scenarios.. which maybe are only in the 10%-20% range, but they still would be considered as my own base scenario.. .. even though financially and psychologically I am ongoingly prepared for BTC prices to go in either direction... that is part of the reason that I still have buy orders down to $20k-ish even though I consider it unlikely that anytime between now and the end of 2025 we are going to have BTC prices less than 20% from the 200-WMA.. and the 200-WMA continues to move up.. which you can see in my entry-level fuck you status chart and also in the sustainable withdrawal tool.


You hardly can claim to be bullish, and surely, I have no problem with considering and maintaining conservative financial preparations.

When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my hope was to be able to average something like a 6% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), yet of course, the first 3 years of my being in bitcoin included a lot of negative and/or flat price performance, so it may well be questionable the extent to which BTC was going to be able to meet such hopes.. but with any investment, we frequently will need to prepare for down periods, and surely if you look at the charts, by the end of 2015, there started to form decently good on-the-ground evidence (price performance) reasons for hope and recovery of the prices to go from being in the negative to at least break even end even starting to be positive, and surely the period between November 2015 and May 2016 also seemed like a pretty long period of just waiting to see if there might be some abilities for my portfolio to go into profitabilities, and so it can take a while and there can be some value in terms of NOT establishing unrealistic upside expectations. and/or even taking those upside expectations for granted...

So sure in some sense you are way too bearish in your 10-year prediction (also considering that to be around 50% gold's market cap**), but at the same time, you are too narrow in your description regarding where you expect the BTC price to be.. 

** - a little side tangent.. BTC is about 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it is currently around 1/10th gold's price.  Sure it could take 50-200 years or longer for these prices to play out, but still anyone who at least recognizes the way the markets are pricing these assets should be able to recognize, appreciate and/or take advantage of such likely ongoing arbitrage opportunity.


It is good that you are trying to grapple with the various scenarios, and I surely understand that sometimes the descriptions could end up becoming a bit confusing - so yeah, I am not trying to be overly harsh on you or any of the other guys if maybe sometimes my communication of the ideas might not always be clear or easy to understand.

We are not always going to agree, either.. and sometimes the presumptions might not be great or the examples might be read for making a point than what I might have had been attempting to make..

If you don't agree with some of the presumptions or if you believe that there might be some better or more accurate comparisons, then surely you should feel free to present those kind of ideas.

There can be some advantages in terms of attempting to standardize some of the examples, even though with any example, guys are likely to NOT follow the examples with exactness, and they are likely to deviate from the examples for a variety of reasons including possible irregularities in their cashflow or their expenses, or even sometimes, they might decide that they want to try to trade some kind of a price move and sometimes they might get lucky and other times they might regret some of the ways that they might deviate, yet we learn from our own ways of putting these kinds of ideas to practice... .. So even though personally, I would not want to get into talking about all the so many ways that guys might deviate, I tend to prefer trying to stick with some of the more sound of practices that might end up showing differences between whimpy and aggressive approaches, and even when a guy actually goes to apply his own approach from one perspective or another, he may well realize that he might have had gone overboard in one direction or another.. so then he might learn from his own mistakes, but hopefully mistakes that are not so bad as to take any of us out of the game.. since it is better that we might make some small mistakes rather than ending up having to start over because we end up losing most or all of our bitcoin.


That is one of the great things about bitcoin, and surely I frequently recommend that guys try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, there still is the practicality of the matter that we might have limitations in terms of how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of our own financial/psychological resources, and we also might find that we have to go through some steps of getting our finances and psychology in order prior to becoming more aggressive, so in that regard, it likely would be better to make sure that we are not overdoing our level of aggressiveness, and no one is going to feel sorry for us or help us out if we end up screwing up and doing more than we should have had done.. so in that regard, we might want to consider that whenever we choose to engage in some levels of risk, that we are both recognizing the risk and ready, willing and able to accept the consequences if some of the risk-taking that we employ does not play in our favor... and so sometimes we might be tempted to play around with some ways to try to get more BTC than we might be able to get by more normal and strict DCA ways... and so then if we lose 1% to 5% of our BTC, we might consider it worth it.. but sometimes it is better to just not go down the risk taking mode until you have gotten to a certain BTC stack size through more traditional, normal and strictly conservative ways.. and then once your stack is of a significant size there could be some ways that a bit can be shaved off for extra experimentations.


Yeah, some members might have more financial abilities than the hypothetical guys and other members might have to divide the number by 10 in order for the hypothetical to be realistic or to make sense in comparison to their own circumstances.


These might not be easy choices for guy2 because once he heard about and figured out bitcoin enough to want to invest into it, he may well want to aggressively invest into it, and maybe he even wants to get his bitcoin investment to become 25% of his current portfolio size, and if his current portfolio size is $150k, then 25% of that would be $37,500, but he really ONLY has around $200 per week of investible income that is coming in, so whether he just starts to DCA into BTC using the totality of that $200 per week or he takes from his current portfolio, these are dilemmas, including that many guys do not want to get taxable events upon merely moving value around that they believe that they are not actually realizing the gain, even though it becomes taxable.. and also if he has been investing through both employer matched accounts and tax advantaged accounts, then he might have some dilemmas about how to get bitcoin exposure. .. .so he would have to be particularly motivated to get BTC directly in order to forgo the tax deferred status of the accounts.. and the employer matching.. 

And, sure it could be the case that we are talking about a guy who does not have any employer matching and/or tax deferred status on the accounts, so it would be easier for that kind of a guy to just move his 200 per week from his traditional investment and into bitcoin.. so then if he is buying BTC at $200 per week, it is still going to take him more than 3 years (around $10.4k per year - and $31,200 after 3 years) to get up to $37,500 invested into BTC.. and in the meantime, both the size of his total investment portfolio and also his BTC value would have changed through that time that he is investing into BTC at $200 per week. and he might start to feel that he needs to invest, 4-5 years into bitcoin at that rate before he starts to feel that he is at a proper BTC allocation level, even though he might value from how much he is putting into BTC rather than how much it is worth,

and if BTC continues to outperform traditional assets like it has historically done, then he will end up having way higher than 25% allocations into bitcoin.. which surely, I personally don't have any problem with letting your winners ride rather than letting an overperformance of bitcoin to deter continued investment into it. at least until reaching the initial investment allocation targets.. and then also once he might start to feel comfortable with his having had reached his allocation target, then at that point, he might revert back to diversifying what he is investing into - even though his thoughts on the ideas of how to invest and how to diversify might have had changed after he presumptively spends 3-5 years investing into bitcoin at $200 per week... yet when it comes time for him to reassess his investment approach, he is going to end up being informed by his likely having had looked into BTC and also reconsidered investment matters in the prior 3-5 years.


There surely are going to be personally circumscribed parameters in regards to how aggressive a guy really can be, so in that regard, I still think that the most important factor just ends up being putting time into the market and just continuing to plug away, whether you are able to do the higher amounts of 15% to 25% or maybe you are not even able to do 10%, but you still keep plugging away and doing what you can, and live your life in the meantime.. and if you end up putting lower amounts, you likely are going to realize that it is going to take longer, but you may well not really have much of a choice anyhow in terms of speeding up the matter... and so let's say that you are carrying out certain kind of jobs that pay you $2k to $3.5k per month.. so you are feeling o.k. about that and you are able to reasonably stack sats with that level of income.. but then you realize that if you spend 12-18 months attending some kind of a professional program, then you could increase your income up to double of what you are currently making and perhaps even more down the road... but the program will likely cost money and you might have to cut back on your current job.. perhaps even completely quitting your current job.. so those are choices that guys have to make. and there might not even be certainty that they will be able to increase their income by as much as they believe.. or there might even be higher and more lucrative opportunties that might come from certain kinds of training and/or professional experience paths that guys might choose to go down.


Hopefully you have your ratios correct.. since you are planning to hold long term for half and trade with the other half.. which we are not advocating here.. so you have found your own short-cut and attempt to gamble with part of your BTC holdings, and hopefully it does not screw you up in your BTC accumulation journey.. especially since it seems that you are barely in bitcoin for a year and you are cannot resist the idea but to trade half of your stash.

And also your second half of your stash, you are barely even thinking in terms of 4-8 year investment time horizon.. so unless you have some specific reason to shorten your investment timeline, I doubt you are even thinking in long term time lines with either portion of your stash..

And, sure in the end, you are free to do whatever you like when it comes to your BTC accumulation strategy and your supposedly long term plans that do not really sound like long term plans but instead plans to trade one cycle and then the next cycle.


You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips.  They are not the same thing.

You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.

A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.

Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?

The idea of front-loading an investment could apply to any of the BTC accumulation methods of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips, since front-loading is a kind of practice to attempt to invest more than you otherwise would because you might not have a lot of confidence that the BTC price is going to go down during the period that you are employing the front-loading, so in that sense, if you are front-loading yourBTC investment, you are trying to put some additional preparations into the possibility of UP than you otherwise would do.. and so sometimes someone who is new to BTC, they might feel that they do not have enough BTC, so they might purposefully go out of their way to front-load their investment into BTC in order to attempt to make sure that they are prepared for up, just in case.


hahahahaha.. This is a good point.  Each of us has to make sure that we are taking responsibility and figuring out our own allocation and investment into bitcoin in terms of our own assessments of our financial/psychological situation and our sense of the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.


You are correct that after 10 years you would have had invested right around $24k.. so that would not be a bad target for anyone to consider, and surely over 10 years there could be variance in the amount that he is able to invest, but if he is at least shooting for $50 per week, then he is on track, since after 1 year he would have had invested $2,600, and so then after 10 years he would have had invested $26k.. .. so then the next question would be how well might his investment perform over that time? 

There are bearish, bullish and maybe various scenarios in between, so as we have done previously, we could create various projections that show each of the various scenarios, even though we are not exactly going to know which one of the scenarios ended up playing out until we get 10 years down the road.. yet we can continue to monitor where we are and the extent to which we might be over or under performing expectations... and part of the value of maintaining somewhat conservative expectations likely relates to better psychological results that would likely come from overperformance rather than underperformance.. and if we fear underperformance, then surely we can choose to invest less or invest in a way that we are not creating too many overly optimistic frameworks... which then also brings us into both our choice to invest in the first place and also what we choose to invest into (presumptively bitcoin in the spirit of the subject matter of this thread).


Wow wmaurik!!   You seem to have even a shorter timeline than FinePoine0.

Both of you are failing/refusing to appreciate the power of a long term investment, which is 4-10 years or longer, and there should be emphasis on the longer rather than barely fitting into the definition because you are wanting to play the waves.

What is it exactly that you need the BTC for?  You are wanting to get BTC profits in order to invest into something else, what is it?

Are you wanting to consume?  Are you looking at getting into real estate? or to invest into other stuff?  What is it?

Why are either of you able to recognize that 4-10 years or longer is not attempting to play the waves and to get in and out of bitcoin or whatever it is that you are planning to do.

Think about it..   why are you into bitcoin?  for fiat gainz?

Think about another thing... why is that the minimum investment time horizon 4 years?  that is a whole cycle and should help to point out that we should not be getting into bitcoin in order to play the cycles.

Now let's say that there are some of us who are actually going to want or need the money that we are putting into bitcoin in less than 4 years, and sure we could do that but we would be trading rather than investing, and there are some chances that our attempt to play the wave is not going to work out. .but sure, we could try to play the wave .. if we are willing to recognize that the price might not move in our preferred direction. .whether we are shooting to buy a house or invest in a business or maybe we just happen to be an older person who may well need the cash in terms of health expenses that might come in older age.. so we are wanting to stay liquid and we cannot commit to at least 4 year investment... then we might not want to get into bitcoin, and if we do get into bitcoin on those terms then we likely would be investing less rather than more since we are more likely trading (or trying to play the wave) rather than actually investing.


Well, at least you wmaurik have potentially been in bitcoin longer than FinePoine0 since you have been registered here for 9 years, so there may have had been some time that you have stacked a sufficient amount of BTC.. but yeah, it could be that you made a lot of mistakes too.. yet FinePoine0 has not even been registered on the forum for a year, so can we even speculated that he has much of a good plan, unless he had been able to front-load his BTC investment a lot, but it seems to me that he is largely in a mindset of figuring out ways to play the wave, and he has a plan to play this wave and a plan to play the next wave, and sure maybe he will just continue to try to play each wave, and it can be quite questionable if that is either a very good strategy or that it is even within the theme of this thread.. it is almost like he is talking about trading rather than investing.. even though sure guys can sell whenever they want, but his somewhat vague reference to what he is doing seems to be a bit of a deviance and/or distraction from a kind of longer term thrust of what kinds of BTC accumulation approaches that we might be trying to consider in this thread.


Of course, there is emergency, reserves and float.. so there can be some advantages in regards to thinking about how the categories differ.. and so if you are using an emergency fund because you are trying to avoid having to tap into your bitcoin, then you might use reserve funds to try to avoid having to tap into your emergency fund... and yeah, of course, there can be questions regarding how much to keep in each, and there would be flexibility, and it would seem imprudent and/or overly risky for guys to not have at least 3 months worth of emergency funds.


Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.

so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.

I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.


Yep.. the BIG opportunity seems to presume better places to put money than bitcoin and/or to use bitcoin profits for such purposes, rather than perhaps getting the money for "Big Opportunities" from other places.

Of course, when guys are young, they are likely going to come across opportunities and also sometimes need capital to get into certain kinds of deals/arrangements... but that still might not mean it would be a good idea to use bitcoin proceeds for these kinds of matters, yet at the same time, everyone is going to have to make these kinds of choices for themselves in terms  of both balancing their finances and balancing where they have allocated their investments, whether it is time, energies and/or monetary value.


If you have a long term investment plan, I don't know if you need to have a specific goal - since you seem to be suggesting that there is a need to get in and then to get out of the investment... as if there is a better place to put the money.

Sure, if you get up to a certain size BTC stash, then you can start to withdraw from it, live off of it or use it to supplement or replace your income.

If you are building your BTC to try to reach a kind of fuck you status goal, you cannot be completely sure how long it is going to take to get there and you might not even be sure about whether you have gotten there are not, until you start to get close to getting there.  You cannot necessarily establish the specifics in advance, even though you likely have some ballpark ideas, such as getting up to $2million in terms of value of BTC stash.. but then if it takes you 15-20 years to get to that point, you might have to consider if that amount is still correct or consider whether it needs to be adjusted, in either direction.. and also in terms of valuating BTC and other assets and/or currencies that you might have in you total investment portfolio.

He needs 30 activity to go with his 30 posts.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178608.msg1861412#msg1861412

I agree.  That is a lot.. .. and so if we can continue to get the free plans to work that would be preferred.

That does not sound like very many push-ups for a competition - especially since I am an old fart, and I was able to get up to 55 pushups after 45 days of training...  and I surely do not consider myself to be competition material, when it comes to pushups..

Another thing is that maybe it would be good for you to describe if there were any rules for the pushups for the competition?  Did they tell you how fast to do them or how far up or down you needed to go with each one?  Did they tell you about a certain kind of posture that you needed to have.. such as keeping your body straight during the pushups?

Well give us some numbers then in order that we don't start to believe that you quit on us (and left us hanging).


Do you know about the statement:  "it's 5 o'clock somewhere?"  Similar idea.

I will admit that I have had a few sets that were "technically" beyond midnight, and I don't even enter them into my own table with an after midnight time.. .. I will generally put them somewhere in the range of "23:56 and 23:59" so they would not be distinguishable from other sets that I actually in facts squeezed in right before midnight.

So far, my after mid-night pushup sets have been within about 20  minutes of midnight... but even if I were to do it within a few hours of midnight, I might have to consider them as being within a "prior to sun-rise" kind of framework... so maybe my own personal rule would be that the dates must all fall prior to midnight even though some of the actual sets were performed prior to sunrise..   I probably could not live with myself if I were to count a pushup set that happened after sunrise as being in the prior date.

Otherwise, I try to be fairly accurate about my documented times because I tend to want to be able peruse my list to see if there might be some issue with recovery times (so time-intervals between sets) whether during the day or the intervals between the last set of the prior day and the first set of the next day..

They are smart enough to NOT be teaching "cryptocurrency" in schools, so surely you don't seem to know what you are talking about.

In udder words.. fuck shitcoins... hopefully you actually know the difference - but I am going to have my doubts when people choose to use the term "cryptocurrency" when we are talking about bitcoin.. what would the reason be?  Just a slip up? and why should anyone be making those kinds of supposedly "innocent" slip ups?


As I mentioned in a couple of my earlier posts, they don't really own that much BTC, given the size of their budget (annual revenues).

Seems to either be an example of gaslighting or some sort of delusion, as you suggested...

Many of us know and realize the reality that bitcoin has been, is and will likely continue to eat Gold's lunch.. and for sure there are "in-denial" gold bugs who seem to spin gold in such similarly positive ways, too.


Possible.. . yeah sure.. but really? 

Are you going to really want to argue something in that lame-ass direction? 

Is there a way we could potentially outline something like this to be bettable because what you are suggesting it quite outrageous, and you likely know that you would not stand behind what you just said, but you want to appear as if you are "open-minded" while at the same time, you are providing "fair and balanced" fringe nutjob theories as if they were to have some kind of a meaningful chance that would be worthy of serious accounting.

You almost deserve a slappening for that nonsense.... unless you would rather frame your nonsense in acceptable bet terms, then I will forgive you for your participation in this line of thinking.

 

There can be a lot of reasons that each person chooses or does not choose to be aggressive or whimpy with the amount that he invests, and within those three examples, I was trying to describe  them as similarly in their incomes and also similarly in their age.. . ... so even though I described 1 as having 10% investments and 3 as having 15% investments, I was trying to describe number 2 as a potentially more relatable character who may well purposefully be ready, willing and able to be more aggressive in his investment as compared to the other two, and so to suggest that there are circumstances in which the more aggressive and/or organized person may well also be able to get quite a bit ahead of folks who got into bitcoin earlier than him - yet at the same time to suggest, that even if you start to do everything right and/or as correct as you are able to do them, it still might not be very easy or possible to catch up to similarly-situated people who got into bitcoin earlier than you... and maybe we should not overly stress ourselves about these kinds of matters, especially if we well might realize that it is likely better to be mostly competing with making ourselves better versions of ourselves rather than getting too worked up about what others are doing.... even though surely some of us are likely just competitive by nature and we either might not be able to help ourselves or we might have our own psychological issues that might not be easy to correct..and maybe we consider some of our drives to be features and not bugs in terms of our own characters.  

Just to attempt to make clear (and to emphasize), I tried to give the examples in terms of already showing their investment allocations to anything that they are investing into, so any amount that was not contained in the examples of 10%, 25% and 15% was presumptively for consumptive and/or expense purposes rather than investing/saving.. and there is also another kind of presumption that each of them have their emergency fund, reserves and float in place.. at least to sufficiently responsible levels.  So then both examples 1 and 3 discovered BTC 7 years ago and invested into BTC in a style that largely reflected their already chosen level of investment/savings aggressiveness.. 10% and 15% respectively, and so there is also a presumption that when the more aggressive investor (guy 2) only just finds out about BTC, that he is going to mostly be aggressive towards bitcoin and so he is a guy who is relatable towards finding out about bitcoin and then plugging it into his already aggressive investment approach and/or personality... so yeah, guy2 is meant to be a relatable kind of character in terms of how someone who finds out about bitcoin (and actually recognizes the asymmetric bet angle of bitcoin... including appreciating some aspects of it sound money fundamentals) might also become somewhat passionate about investing into bitcoin or choose to take an aggressive approach towards investing into bitcoin, rather than diddly-daddling around in terms of figuring out when to get started and not being sure and blah blah blah.


Well I am suggesting him to have had built his investment and having had invested $10k per year for 10 years and then receiving a somewhat standard return on that which would be around 50%, so after 10 years, his investment would be worth around $150k because some of his earlier invested amounts would have grown more and some of his later invested amounts would not have had as much time to grow.. so yeah, his total investment portfolio is right around $150k at the time that he learns about BTC... but it is still worth less than Guy1 and Guy3.. . .and when he decides to get into bitcoin, he may well not want to pull out and reallocate what he has in his overall investment into bitcoin, but instead to divert what he had been investing into traditional assets into bitcoin in order to at least aim towards reaching his bitcoin investment target.... So in some sense, I may well be inferring what a reasonably similarly situated guy might want to do...

I am not necessarily going to presume that his prior investment had matching funds (like a 401k might have), even though there could be certain kinds of things that had been going on with his prior investments that might contribute to his not necessarily wanting to discontinue to invest into the other investments, so he could be faced with a bit of a dilemma in regards to how aggressive he might be able to be in regards to his investing into bitcoin..  some employers might have matching amounts that go up to 5% of the salary.. or perhaps there would be tax deferral benefits, and I would suggest that there would be motivations to invest up to the amount of the employer's match, but not necessarily choose to invest up to the maximum tax deferral, even though surely some folks are going to get lured into tax deferral investments that currently, in the USA (for example) allows investing up to $23k per year into tax deferred products.. and so a lot of people will get distracted into taxed-deferred investing options (which is not bitcoin investing directly), which is another reason that the bitcoin spot ETFs in the USA can be so compelling for people who are able to contribute into those kinds of investments or if their Employer offers an investing program that includes the bitcoin spot ETFs as one of the available options... which may or may not be better than buying bitcoin directly, and if someone with ONLY $40k income is investing 25% of his income, he is still not even coming close to the federal maximum limitation of $23k per year.

I personally would not necessarily conclude or presume that guy2 has any readiness, willingness or ability to front load into bitcoin.. not based on the facts given and/or the fact that he has already built an investment portfolio or $150k.. Now if the facts were different, he might have some extra funds for front loading, but it surely is not presumed in the facts that I had given... especially since I am trying to describe and characterize guy 2 as a relatively conservative guy who may well be aggressive, but that does not mean that he is a gambler.. merely because he is already being aggressive and has already historically been aggressive in his investment with having had achieved investing $100k over 10 years.. and just on the face, guy2 invested way more than either guy1 or guy3 who invested $40k and $60k respectively over the last 10 years, and the ONLY reason that guy2's portfolio is not as good as the portfolios of guy1 or guy3 is because guy2 had been investing in traditional investments like index funds and ONLY just found out about BTC.


I am not suggesting that it is a good idea to liquidate assets. Smart people do not tend to do that.


You do not seem to understand Saylor.  Saylor is not liquidating assets.  Don't get mislead by dumbass mainstream media and bitcoin naysayer spins.

Saylor has been investing aggressively in bitcoin since late 2020 and Saylor is a bit of a psycho.. and he probably is not even a good model for normies to even attempt to follow..

Sure he is a good model in terms of his being both a bitcoin advocate, his being a very smart guy and also his using a variety of financial instruments to leverage several aspects of his company in order to buy more bitcoin which likely causes both BTC prices to go up and also his stock to go up so that he can engage in further leveraging of his company's stock.

He is playing a sophisticated game that is smart as fuck and normies cannot either play that game, and they do not even have those levels of resources..


So he has been aggressive as fuck with bitcoin from the beginning, and maybe his most reasonable buys were his first or second bitcoin buys (in around August 2020) where he merely took around 70% of the company's free cash reserves and put that into bitcoin, and there were also some of his buys around those earlier stages that were just buying bitcoin on a quarterly basis with whatever extra revenue that the company brought in.. . but he got more and more psycho in terms of both leverage and using debt instruments.. and surely those are smart as fuck moves, but they are not even close to the kinds of plays that normies should be attempting unless they have the kinds of cashflows and other assets that largely could service the various financial instruments and/or leverage plays.

One of the latest plays from Saylor that has been getting a lot of attention in recent times has been that he has been selling MSTR shares, and those are not shares that he already had, but instead those are shares that are getting issued to him from options that were set to expire from 2014.. and so he pretty much announced that he was going to be selling all of those options (which yeah they are shares) in the coming several months.. or at least since the beginning of 2024 and maybe it goes through mid 2024.. I am not sure by when he has to exercise all of the outstanding options.. .. so Saylor is not even diluting his current ownership of shares in the company.. but instead selling new shares that are getting issued to him and he is selling them as soon as they are issued to him. to buy personal bitcoin and that is not even MSTR bitcoin that he is buying with that, and he already had nearly 18k personal bitcoin that he had disclosed in around August 2020.. so he is adding to his personal BTC stash.. maybe another 10k or more BTC through various ongoing issuance of new shares that he sells to buy BTC.

So don't be presuming any additional facts regarding what guy2 should be doing as a normie in terms of turning him into some kind of a gambler, risk taker and/or even someone who is moving around his investment, because smart normal (generally risk-averse) people do not engage in those kinds of behaviors, and the mere fact that guy2 is an aggressive investor who invests 25% of his income does not mean that he is going to fuck around with moving his already invested assets around merely because he is wanting to refocus his future investments into bitcoin.. and yeah, through guy2, I did not describe any guy that would have had been in any kind of real and/or meaningful position to front load into bitcoin, even though surely anyone is free to be more aggressive than guy2, but you seem to be changing the scenario if you presume that guy2 should be moving investments around in order to front load into bitcoin...


By the way, we could describe a scenario in which each of the three guys were to receive an unexpected $12k job bonus or maybe some kind of windfall from the sales of a house, or an inheritance or something like that, so then if these guys end up having some unexpected extra cash (such as $12k), then they could make choices to use that cash in ways to front load into bitcoin or to stick to some variation of their earlier personalities that was already described.. so I would suggest that Guy1 might ONLY take around 33% of his lump sum and invest it into bitcoin, and maybe guy3 would invest 66% and maybe guy3 might invest 85% or more into bitcoin.. and my assumptions would be based on my already attempts to describe them in terms of their levels of aggressiveness.. but I did not describe (or mean to suggest) any of them as being gamblers or excessive risk takers.  .


You are seeming to be fighting with the hypothetical.  Do you really believe that it is reasonable or feasible to be suggesting that normal people who are already pretty damned aggressive (investing/saving 25% of your income is already pretty damned aggressive) that these guys should be even more aggressive than they are already being.  That hardly makes sense..

Of course, there are guys who work on their skills and their prospects to increase their income or to cut their expenses, and yeah we could have those kinds of behaviors that are going on with guy2 that would end up both distinguishing him from guy1 and guy3, but also such behaviors turn him into a different person than I was attempting to describe in the hypothetical.. so in some sense if you are giving him all these extra attributes, you are creating a new character, which surely is fine, since we can be whoever we want, but if we are attempting to make some kind of a comparison to similarly situated individuals, we should be attempting to describe their situations in similar ways and not creating way too many variables that then screw up the comparisons.


Ok... at least you seem to be recognizing some of the balancing that has to go on, and sure any of us can be attempting to improve our conditions and even go beyond what is expected regarding some of the limitations that we might currently have or be expected to have, but even if we might want to learn some new skills to improve our income, or to get a promotion or to enter into some more lucrative kinds of employment (or business), it still sometimes can take time to actually experience the result of the increased income that might give us more discretionary income to buy bitcoin.


The fact of the matter is that anyone in their early 20s who had been investing/saving 10% to 15% of his income into anything is still a pretty damned unique kind of a person, since so many people do not save or invest, and especially they do not necessarily start in their early 20s... so a guy in his early 30s who had already been investing for 10years is already somewhat unusual, but surely such a person is not beyond the aspirations that could be available to almost anyone who is able to start to get employment that allows him to generate some disposable/discretionary income.  Frequently it can be difficult for normies in their early 20s to even get gainful employment and surely sometimes there may be needs to learn job skills or to improve education that might not result in any kind of meaningful income and sometimes even the programs to gain job/employment skills may well end up costing money and/or time consuming without pay.. but it still might be the smarter way to go, even if income might suck for guys in their early 20s.


There surely are balances that need to be struck, and sometimes it can be quite difficult to even invest more than 10% of your income, so each of us has to figure out how much we are able to do, that might also involve tradeoffs that we make in terms of gaining job skills and/or experiences that might contribute to our abilities to earn more later down the road...so yeah, it seems that you overall understood these comparative matters, even though you seemed to be fighting with the hypothetical in several areas, too.


I agree with you MusaPk. .sometimes it might be worth it to get some kind of a reliable service, especially since the tool that bitmover made has ended up being quite powerful for those who have figured out some uses for it.. and it might not even be very available in other places on the web.... at least not so far.. even though I am pretty sure that bitmover and I are tending towards promoting and advocating open-sourcedness.  

So yeah there might be some utility in seeking out free services, yet at the same time, there might be some preferences to just bite the bullet.. and subscribe to something reliable.. but yeah, I don't claim to be any kind of an expert and even some of the paid services might have their own trickiness and/or their questionable value-add aspects.


There is also the concept of front-loading that could fit within a kind of style for those three as well, and there is also aggressive versus whimpy which surely fall upon a sliding scale in which we might not all agree regarding which is which.


Sure... you seem to be referring to the hypos that are listed in post 2 of my investment ideas thread, and even those hypos might not describe all of the possibilities, even though they were initially outlined to show how the passage of time might cause difficulties for later entrants to bitcoin to be able to catch up to earlier entrants .. and yeah sometimes we can compare our present self to some variation of what we could have had been, yet going forward, we still end up having to try to tailorize what we are going to do towards are own individual variables.. which also would hopefully include some changing dynamics that would attempt to account for how many BTC we might have already been able to accumulate, and if we might be considering if we might be getting close to reaching our BTC accumulation goals (which likely is valuable to attempt to measure value in terms of the 200-WMA, even though we might also start to consider some maintenance strategies that will relate to how far BTC spot prices are away from the 200-WMA and in which direction, which you seemed to have had already acknowledged).


Yeah.. too bad about the delay... . and I have decent confidence that bitmover is going to figure out some reasonable path forward... I have gotten into using the tool almost daily, too.. especially if I am responding to posts in which some of various topics could come up related to valuation of holdings and/or even considering where BTC prices are now as compared to where they had been historically.

Edit:  O..k.. I see that bitmover responded to these messages and the tool is back online.  .GREAT!!!!.


Fuck shitcoins.  We are talking about bitcoin in this thread... so don't be trying to equate shitcoins to bitcoin because that is either dumb, ambiguous, misleading and/or malicious.


I am not really sure what you mean here.. just referring to opportunities in "crypto" or do you have any ideas that might somehow relate to bitcoin.


Sure.. Yes... I mostly agree with this point as long as you are talking about bitcoin and not mixing in the idea of shitcoins, which you already did such ambiguous mixing above, which could make it a bit unclear about what you mean..

I am quite thrilled that you are able to put these kinds of things together with a bit of looking into it and then figuring it out.. and then pretty much explain to us what you are doing.. which maybe helps some of us to attempt to learn what it might take to compile aspects of the data. or the presumptions upon which the data might be built...

yet, I am a bit confused about how some data goes back 1,800 days and other data only goes back 1,200 days, which surely can make a difference in terms of of some of the older results that may or may not be relevant.. and of course, when you are dealing with a larger data base (or going back further) you might have some burdens of processing the data, but there might not be any additional data in the larger data base that is not already contained in the smaller data base.. so why process more data when the same results would be accomplished with the smaller data base?  At least, that's kind of how I  consider it.. whether I am accurate or not... I am kind of speculating about trade-offs that might be considered.

Anyhow, if I am trying to stay with you regarding your comment about March 5, in the results that are now showing (from yesterday), I count 6 dates in 2024, so I am not exactly sure about why you say "one bold entry" when there appear to be 6 bold entries that includes March 5.


I am not sure if we are communicating very well in regards to this point, and surely there could be a variety of explanations regarding how it becomes almost impossible for the actual volume as denominated in BTC is going to keep up with the BTC price, and gosh even if we were to compile all of the BTC volume across all exchanges and other ways that BTC is traded (which surely might be quite difficult to achieve), we are surely going to find that even though more and more capital is coming into the BTC system, the amount of capital is not going to be tending to be moving around as many BTC because largely the BTC price is going up so fucking much that it becomes almost impossible to keep up.. and sure at the same time BTC is taking over the world and etc etc.. but the price going up is still outpacing the accuracies in denominating in BTC rather than dollars.

I am maybe not even explaining this well enough because maybe I don't really know how to explain it. since maybe it involves speculation on my behalf, too..

yet as i already pointed out.. about the 2014 bearwhale of 30k BTC then representing $9 million, and now that quantity of BTC would be $210 million  and sure maybe there is some aspects of the bitcoins getting spread out to other exchanges, so the quantity of BTC held on exchanges are way smaller than they were historically, yet in terms of dollar values held on exchanges, the dollar values are likely continuing to go up a lot - even for the ones who are just maintaining themselves and/or experiencing gradual growth.. so yeah BTCs are more spread out.. but I would still argue that the same dynamic exists in regards to fewer and fewer BTC traded, in spite increasing dollar values being traded.. and you are more than free to try to prove me wrong if you want to put some kind of a column that attempts to capture all bitcoin traded, and I am sure there are probably APIs that include some variation of that kind of data. which surely does not capture all of the bitcoin traded, even though it attempts to do so.. .. and yeah, maybe there is also a difference between if we can figure out if the BTC is being traded or just moving around by the same person... or if no value is exchanged, then maybe that BTC does not count either... so then the answer might come from looking at all currencies in which BTC is traded.. but is also could be a narrower question of just dollar traded volume.

You likely know about https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/all#  which seems to combine all order books and all currencies.. and I am not sure if there is some more comprehensive data set from them or maybe some other site that does that.. or I would not know if they have an API for that particular data either (since I hardly even know what an API is, but it makes me sound smart to refer to it from time to time... hahahahaha)... and yeah, I recognize that you are getting a lot of your information from Bitcoinity.. .. so sometimes there would likely just be considering ways to consider data that you might already have or have seen.... but then putting that data together in a way that it might not have had been put together previously.


I still think that the BIG question remains if the capital is flowing into bitcoin as fast as the price is going up.. and yeah, maybe at some point some stability will come in regards to traded volume being able to accurately be reflected in terms of bitcoin denominations rather than pegging it to something, such as dollars.. which surely could be 2-4 cycles or more down the road..

I mean I have my own personal theory that bitcoin is going to remain volatile as fuck and probably continuing in the UPpity direction until it reaches at least $5 million per coin, which I am thinking is going to be around 10x gold's market cap, and I am not even sure if BTC's upward's inclined volatility will go down at that point.. .. so maybe in some sense there is going to continue to be a certain level of hoarding of coins (or lost coins or whatever is the reason that they are not being circulated in the velocity of money sense).. .. so in that regard, I am continuing to think that it is unrealistic to presume that somehow measuring the number of bitcoins traded is going to provide us with any kind of meaningful measurement.. at least not within current and likely short-to-medium term timelines... .. and the data really seems to support what I am proclaiming to be true.. .at least what you had shown of the Bitstamp data.. yet I am open the possible idea (hopefully led by facts) that maybe if there was more of a comprehensive BTC traded volume compilation of data (column), then we might see slightly different results... yet at the same time, I am thinking that the results are not likely to be materially different from what we already see in the Bitstamp alone data.


Yeah.. velocity of money.. I understand the concept, but I doubt it changes the results in any kind of material and/or meaningful way that helps for that bitcoin denominated data to actually tell us something meaningful.


You surely are in charge of your own tables.. and I am so glad that you at least put together a dollar-denominated column.. .. and if you feel so attached and excited about a bitcoin-denominated column, then surely you could include that one too.. or even take out the dollar-denominated column if you want, even though it seems that the dollar-denominated column is potentially giving us some information that seems to be more meaningful.. but yeah, maybe even the dollar-denominated column that you just added could be misleading if it is ONLY coming from one exchange (namely Bitstamp), yet historically, there have been so many problems with fake volume on some exchanges (especially in 2013-2016 on Chinese exchanges that were mostly shut down around 2016), and even some of the various games that might end up still get played by exchanges that are allowing the use of margin and leverage (or maybe some exchanges sometimes come off as manipulative - think about Coinbase, and maybe there are some skepticisms of Binance and Bitfinex because of some of their seeming manipulation history.. that may or may not still be true), so there is a reason that longer term members of the forum are somewhat sympathetic to Bitstamp's data, at least with the USD/BTC pair.. while at the same time recognizing Bitstamp as being fairly low (or modest) in terms of its overall trade volume... but still Bitstamp has continued to hold its own pretty well through the years.. at least so far.

I am attempting to be realistic.

You assign lower probabilities than me. No problem.

If you add up all of my projected numbers above $650k from my 2021 assignment of probabilities that I had assigned around 6.75% probabilities that the BTC price would go higher than $650k during that last cycle.. and yeah of course, the price did not end up going above $69k.. yet this cycle the odds for supra $650k has to be higher than it was last time.. and yeah I had not considered a number for that yet.

A  few days ago, I had also assigned probabilities to what the BTC price will be in 10 years.


I am attempting to be realistic in all of my assignments of probabilities.  I suppose that having differing ideas about future probabilities (especially when it comes to prices, such as BTC prices) contributes to differing market behaviors, and if we all agreed about the current BTC price or variations of the future price, then that would be a boring world.  There would be no volatility.. but that is not the world we live in, especially when it comes to BTC.. In BTC we have violent and inevitable volatility that is likely going to last until it reaches around $5 million per coin or more. . which is around 10x gold's market cap (which maybe is going to happen within 2-4 cycles).. and then BTC is going to have another 100x more appreciation from that in the coming 50-200 years.. so these things take a while, but even in the relatively short term, we can likely have some funzies.


That sounds pretty bearish, Biodom..

But hey, you are entitled to your own whimpy opinion.. whether it ends up being correct or not.

Ok.. this cycle is until around the end of 2025, give or take 6 months... so $650k to $900k could be reached.. maybe.. rough ball park of greater than 10% odds..


Binance US discontinued its transactions in USD right around the the beginning of 2023.

There is cash app, and Gemini, and there may be bitcoin atms, depending on the city where the guy is going... or maybe bitcoin meetups and just transact directly with some real world peeps.

Well.  One thing is forgetting your password, and another thing might to be going and telling everyone your password and you various "secrets" because you had gone into a hallucinogenic state.

I don't advocate such.

Regarding the substance of the matter.

I will agree that we can never really know when a pump might end up happening - and surely there can be some benefits that come from elements of surprise.. .. and I think that we are still getting used to this world of ongoing buying pressures through those newly formulate onramps, aka bitcoin spot ETFs.

I have a hard time figuring out from where exactly they are getting their coins.

Yeah, we see a lot of coins flowing out of GBTC, so surely there seems to be attempts to paint that as if it were some kind of a negative, when the inflows into other ETFs have been way outpacing the GBTC outflows - especially when you zoom out over several weeks - and even a couple of months of inflows and clearly new demand. .. so who is selling?  I don't know, but someone's gotta be selling.. unless they are fractionally reserving.. which surely I am not going to presume any of those twats to have actual integrity, if there might be areas for them to get away with shenanigans.

So yeah a pump could come at any time.. we've been floating largely $74k to $60k if you could call that a correction. .. but it was enough to wake dragonvslinux for a short period of time. .and almost animate him into losing a bet.. but then now we are back int he upper $60ks and lower $70ks for nearly a week.. and yeah, not quite a week.. since maybe it is important that a bit of an up-leg from lower $60ks to upper $60ks took place at the end of last weekend and the beginning of the week.. to the extent that even matters.. business days and all of that.

But then on the other end, it had been a bit more than two weeks since we last seen an ATH, and that was at the end of that particular week..

I don't know or claim if ATHs might not be sufficiently reasonable to happen on the weekends too..

Why not?


Edit: For some reason when I wrote the above, I was thinking that we were already in the weekend.. .. so getting my days mixed up.. and maybe just go ahead and forget about every thing that I said above that relates to anything that related to anything.




Any of us likely hate to sell too much too soon, but surely this does not seem to be a bad place to shave some off, especially compared with $27k in October... and also it could have been that we would have been dickering around with mid-$40ks and lower $50ks until the halvening .. which seemed like a pretty likely scenario until the ETFs actually went through and launched us clearly in the middle of noman's land that also being considered as our new don't wake me up zone, which surely seems strange to consider this price range with those two names at the same time, but if the glove fits, put it on.


When in the don't wake me up zone, it is optional to sleep.


There can be dilemmas regarding if there is enough money in the various accounts that are already in dollars to pay the bill, so then just move a little money around so that there is enough in the account that is paying the bill... so then it comes in handy to have some of that money just hanging around.. .. yet at the same time, don't we also sometimes worry if we have too much cash that is just hanging around and it is not working?.. I hate to get sucked into those luring ideas of yield and interest and dividends, even though surely there is some attractiveness in having your money working versus not working, and another thing is that I will admit that I did have to sell some cornz to cover the float.. or to be able to maintain my sufficient cashfloat.. which meant that I ended up selling around 0.3% of my BTC stash, and hey that should just be a rounding error correct?.. I mean I probably am already to a status that I am permitted to sell way more than that - even 30x of that and to even claim that it is sustainable to be able to sell up to 10% per year..... so still dancing around ideas of being able to sell 4% to 6% to 10% per year. .. and look at me getting all worked up over a mere 0.3%.. .. even if I sold that every single month. .that would not even add up to the 4%.. it would be 3.6% for the whole year.. .. gotta pick up the spending game.. I keep saying to myself, but not really complying.. .

Maybe I should bid against Bob's 55 acres to the south of him?... and we could become neighbors?  good ole buddies?

Could you actually imagine bob as your neighbor in real life?

Bitcoin is probably around 1,000x better than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years before he market reflect that - unless bitcoin ends up breaking before then.. .. or something better comes to supersede bitcoin in order to take away its current place as a superior/strongest monetary asset.


I wasn't trying to specifically point out anything related to your actual finances, but instead giving an example of a wage and an ongoing aggressive BTC accumulation that could have had happened in the last 18 months at a rate of about 15% of someone's income... and yeah, some guys might not been able to accumulate BTC that aggressively because they may well have to put other aspects of their finances in place and also figuring outways to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to potentially achieve that level of aggressiveness... and that was part of the reason that I suggested that I anticipated that your situation was likely not even as good as the one that I was describing in terms of being able to get to a point of having 6 months worth of your income in BTC after ONLY being in bitcoin for less than 18 months.


I was not even really suggesting any kind of withdrawal even under those kinds of circumstances that were described in which the BTC price could double from here and then double again, and then those kinds of dynamics should be considered.. even though for sure a guy with even 2-3 years of value in BTC does not really seem to be in a position of withdrawing, but he may well be in a position in which he might been some needs to reallocate an to diversify out, whether it is bolstering his emergency fund and/or his float or diversifying into some other assets - and I surely am not referring to shitcoins or even locking up large amounts of value.. and yeah, there are guys who are in places in which it is nearly impossible to invest into anything besides bitcoin and shitcoins, so those are choices that guys would be faced with . and anyone getting into gambling shitcoins better be limiting his exposure to less than 10% of his BTC holdings.. .. .. but anyhow, since we have guys from all over the world, there could be guys who have access to investing into index funds or something, and even if they have 2-3 years of income in BTC, they still might be in a good place to merely bolster their emergency funds and reserves a bit.. and that could be enough..

and, yeah, if you are not quite even close to that and even if your BTC holdings might ONLY be 3 months of your annual income, then it well could take a 10x increase in BTC prices, and then 3 months turns into 30 months, so those are the kinds of scenarios, even guys with modest BTC holdings should be taking into account in terms of what is possible in the next 6 to 18 months - even though maybe the odds are not exactly that high to end up getting a 10x from here so quickly.. but you never know with BTC.. In March 2020, we dipped down to $3,850 and then maybe we could say that we bounced back to $10k-ish by late in the year (2020), yet within the next 12 months we were 6x and 7x higher than those $10k prices... ..

And, surely some folks might not consider the kind of runs from 2017 to be possible or likely, but those 2 years resulted in more than a 78x price appreciation from the 2015 bottom to the 2017 top.. .. but then maybe we might say that they measuring point might NOT start until around January 2017 when we reached $1k, and so by the end of 2017, we had accomplished a 20x.. so the BIG numbers are possible and they should be considered in terms of where your BTC holdings might be and if you might need to consider some adjustments based on those kinds of possible levels of exuberance and outrageousness.. and sure it may be the case that you just keep accumulating and hold through it. and make tiny adjustments along the way and just let the BTC price do whatever it is going to do while you just continue to regularly stack sats.. whether the BTC price is high or low..

and I am not even opposed to that.. especially for both a guy that is still going through his first whole cycle and a guy who also might not have a high discretionary/disposable income, it may well be the best of strategies just to continue to pace yourself through the whole matter however it ends up playing out.. which surely guys who were new to bitcoin and went through either the 2017 price run or the 2021 price run, they would have still ended up fine by just continuing to buy the whole time.. . which was kind of the case for me, except I started at the top of the 2013 run, so I started while the price was going down rather than while it was going up.. so the dynamics are a bit different in terms of what might be reasonable and how to play it.. even though in the long run DCA does still end up working for both, especially for any persons with relatively low levels of disposable/discretionary income.


Trading does seem to be worse.. and yeah, if you are able to figure out some consistent system to focus on BTC accumulation, then you likely will be good.. .. .. even though like jossiel mentioned there can be quite a few psychological challenges to go through real BIG price swings, yet we cannot even really know how much of a price correction is going to happen or how long it is going to last until after it has happened, so there are a lot of guys who end up selling too much too soon and they are never really able to figure out when to buy back. when they likely would have been better to just keep buying regularly because at least that way they can see the number of their sats increasing, even though the value per sat might be fluctuating a lot along the way, too.


The meaning of aggressiveness does not have to do with the amount that you are putting in.. because even if you are ONLY putting in $10 per week, you might be being as aggressive as you are able to be.. so I am not really talking about amounts when I refer to aggressiveness.. but there are ways that you can be aggressive by just making sure that you have all your financial and mental matters in order, so then you are able to afford to be more aggressive than someone who is disorganized and is not paying attention to his cashflow, his emergency fund, his reserves and his float.. and so yeah, you might also make some mistakes because you might sometimes get too aggressive, but if you are planning through various aspects, then your mistakes are not likely going to be enough to put you out of the game.. the mistakes end up not being able to buy for a few weeks or having to use some of your emergency fund because you fucked up with your management of your reserves and/or your float. and things like that.. so part of this whole matter is staying in the game, since there are hostile governments and hostile financial institutions that would like to remove you from your coins and even discourage and/or dissuaded you from accumulating bitcoin... I get the sense that some of the matters related to fees in the last 6 months were attacks on the psychology and the finances of poor people, and so poor people have to figure out ways to be more organized and to put systems in place so that you can still accumulate bitcoin, even when there are forces working against you, and surely as I said before holding your own keys, but maybe you have to build up your wallet size on some exchange to get it up to $500 or $1k before you move it to a private wallet.. which also can cause additional risks that you have to figure out for yourself you level of wanting to deal with that or you might screw yourself if you end up having 400 transactions that are valued between $10 and $100 and when you should have taken measures to limit the number of UTXOs that you have that are so small like that.
 

It is not guaranteed but surely we have quite a bit of evidence in place that bitcoin is going to continue to have a lot more UPside movements, so this is a good place to be, yet you still have to figure out your position size and your balancing of you position size with real world concerns.. so that you will have enough fiat during times in which you need it.
 

 Yep.. we get arguments about whether 1% adoption has already happened or not, and there can be some distortions since there are a lot of rich people gobbling up the supply.. which also will deter poor people from doing their own gobbling up of coins... so there are so many normies who don't realize that they are going to need bitcoin, ... .while at the same time none of us knows the future exactly.. which again gets us back to figuring out our position size.


Many people will probably need to take more than a whole cycle and even 2-3 cycles or more.. to be able to really get to a point of accumulating enough BTC.. so you might end up being ahead of the game, even if you perceive that you were a bit of a slow starter.. but there are a lot of folks who consider that they are too late, but they end up not doing anything or they get distracted into shitcoins because they are searching for the next bitcoin or the quick 10x or quick 100x.. .. hahahahahaha .. I remember some of the trolls were even worse in 2017 when they were arguing that BTC was not going up fast enough and pumping their shitcoin bullshit. ..and yeah, there might have been some of them who were able to get in and out of their shitcoin, but just holding BTC worked pretty damned good for guys who bought and held through that whole period, even though guys will sometimes start to get depressed when the BTC price is down 50% and it keeps correcting... and so the end of the correction remains unclear.. but the  guys who kept buying through 2018, 2019 and 2020.. ended up looking like geniuses later down the road.. .. and so we cannot know how it will end up playing out this time.


No problem.. one of the best teachers is your own practices and your application and your coming back to help other guys. .. we are going to continue to get newbies, and even though you might be feeling like a newbie, at some point you are going to be having to teach the newbies who are coming here.. .. including figuring out ways to deal with the traders and the shitcoiners... who might not always be completely wrong.. but on this forum,  there are other threads for that, too... yet they are still going to be coming into threads like this and also into some of the other bitcoin threads and either pumping shitcoins or trying to get you to sell your coins earlier than is probably for your own good... and likely many of us will also question our own practices.. because even if we are continuing to build our sats, we sometimes will consider if we might need to make some adjustments to get some more sats.. or more bang for the buck, which is part of the dilemma presented in this thread, even though many guys have considered DCA to be the best, buying the dip (or even lump summing) sometimes will get us more sats.. it is just quite difficult figure out when the dip is going to be, how far it will go or how long it is going to last.


I made this prediction a bit spontaneously from numbers that came into my head (and wanting them to add up to 100%), and so I was also trying to ball park the numbers but also to frame the various possible price ranges in terms of both where we might be in 10 years (or what price range we might be in in 10 years).. based on where we are at right now.. and so if something were to change, I might have to change my ranges or my odds... so for example, if we were to shoot down to $20k or we shot up to $200k within the next 6 months, then I likely would have to reconsider matters.. and any of that kind of shooting around is quite likely, and it would probably be unlikely that the price would perform in such a gradual kind of way that my numbers would not end up changing along the way..

I frequently like to go by the 200-WMA, and so if that 200-WMA is kind of staying on track, then it gives decently good guidelines for where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going.. which I figure is represented in my entry-level fuck you status chart... which shows the historical and projected 200-WMA every 6 months.. and even this 6 month period, it is appearing that the upward trajectory is going to have to get upgraded from 16% to around 23%. which is going to end up changing the subsequent bottom (200WMA) prediction numbers and even my own ongoing consideration that my last updating of that chart in November 2023 was too conservative (so yeah, I am planning to update it every 6 months.. .even though maybe I should update it more often or even create another thread just for updating it more frequently.. especially since I refer to it so often.


I would imagine that its odds for going to zero in a longer timeline would be greater than it is for within the next 10 years, but who knows?  It could well be that bitcoin is with us forever, as amazing as even the idea of that seems to be and a lot of no coiners and precoiners cannot get their minds around the concept that bitcoin has a kind of existence that makes it stronger than gold.. . .(and in the ballpark of 1,000x more valuable than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years to get to that valuation).


My phrasing regarding the "stuck there" is mostly an attempt to say where we might be 10 years from now.. so "stuck there" might not have been a great descriptive choice... .. but maybe if I had just said, where is the BTC price going to be in 10 years and then assigned ranges, that might have been better, even though we know that the BTC price could go up down or whatever, and then where-ever we might end up in 10 years could be crazy, because there could be scenarios that bitcoin does something outrageous and moves through some pretty broad swaths of prices, even though there is a certain kind of Lindy effect that is going on too.. and also including that the more capital that comes in, then the more capital it takes to move the price.


Probably a bad way of phrasing where we might be in 10 years, and surely I agree that BTC is both designed to pump forever, but also there are likely to be a lot of battles between here and $5 million or so then maybe between $5 million and $100 million per coin might be price arenas in which it becomes a lot more difficult to move the price as much.. so yeah, bitcoin is almost inevitably going to be volatile at least until we get to $5million, which could happen in a cycle or two or three or maybe it takes longer to get there.. and there are going to be both battles and also ongoing and continuous gravitation of monetary value into BTC. .. which is why its addressable market is close to $2.1 quadrillion in future value and around $1 quadrillion in current value.. but there is likely going to be more monetary value in the future as well that is brought by things like bitcoin that we don't necessarily know, yet.. and so $2.1. quadrillion is $1 per satoshi.. but yeah it could take 50 to 200 years to get there..


You are nutso, and you are bound to be wrong.  Evenif you want to stick to those categories, you need to at least present all of the possibilities..

So maybe something like this would be more encapsulating of all possibilities from your perspective.. which again is nutso, as presented, even if one of those two possibilities might end up playing out..

Stablexcoin's prediction reframed into comprehensiveness

Below $500k - 1% or less

Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 69%

High end: $1M - $2M - 29%

Greater than $2 million - 1% or less

You can tweak these numbers  if you like.. but at least the categories are not logically fallacious if you at least account for all of the possibilities, which your earlier example did not and your earlier example likely assigned too high of values to your  two price range possibilities, even though surely you are free to believe whatever you like, even if you are living in a fantasy with your failure/refusal to acknowledge all possibilities.  


Whenever I make future predictions, I try to frame them in terms of either today's dollars or a reasable ongoing dollar debasement, even though we know that the dollar is not going to debase in a reasonable way..  .. sure we could make our predictions in terms of some other asset like gold or oil or big macs or something like that or even measuring from Hookers, lambos, blow and yachts, but at this time, we are still measuring these kinds of matters in terms of dollars, which the dollars ongoing debasement is perverting values a lot since it is likely going to enter into hyperinflation at some point, so we will end up having to measure in other ways when that ends up happening.. which may or may not end up happening soon within 1-30 years.. I have no clue about how long the dollar/fiat/debt-laden ponzi scheme can keep from totally crashing..


Yep.. Negotiation seems to be ongoingly blind and ongoingly fighting the idea of investing for the long term.. so he is going to have to have fun staying poor... because he is likely never going to get ahead by saving in fiat and failing/refusing to build a BTC stash (even if it is a small one), and surely there are going to be a lot of people coming to bitcoin quite late and wishing that they could have stacked some sats for less than $100k per BTC... and there are going to be satoshi millionaires and they are going to be quite proud of themselves, when right now we can get become a satoshi millionaire for right around $700.. what a deal!!!  that some of us do not recognize and/or appreciate.

I remember less than a year ago, I helped my sister to become a satoshi multimillionaire and it was on several occasions that added up; to a few hundred dollars for sharing various costs and I paid her in BTC. and since then, she has been stacking her own sats... so I am not sure how many she has, but they surely have become more expensive over the last year to year and a half.

That is a potentially interesting column - of course, we already likely know that Bitstamp does not have a lot of trade volume, but I think that part of the reason that it is used as a reference point so much on the forum has to do with some confidence that the BTC/USD trade volume is not being manipulated as much as some of the other potential  BTC/USD  trade volume sources.

I am not concerned if you do anything additional with that number, even though it does seem to make more sense than the earlier number of BTC alone as I already mentioned.

And at least now we have dates in 2024 in that trade volume column.. and notice that we do not have too many dates in late 2021 in there. Many of the high trade volumes dates were in early 2021 rather than in late 2021.. That's interesting.

What are you up to?

All of my sets today have been 40 or 45.., and I suspect that I might be able to do 50 or 55, but only if I were to speed up.. .. but I am not really feeling like I can do anymore... so getting better seems to be a slow process..... but my number of sets per day continues to be 5 so I am still getting pretty good quantity of pushups for the whole day... ... but if that is my ONLY major exercise for the whole day.. then maybe there might be some need to add some other stuff here and there.. besides some of the stretching and just normal other activities that have some exercise but nothing major...


That might teach us to find some kind of a groove.. even though you had said that you were doing the slower pushups.. so yeah they are likely more difficult than the ones that I am doing... . which still are right around 1 second per pushup.. and I am frequently tempted to go faster so that I can do more.. and no matter what they hurt since I end up pretty much pushing myself to failure.. and if I slow down then I end up doing fewer.. so I am thinking that a couple of weeks of my measuring my pushup speed will help to inform me whether I might want to make adjustments to either the speed or the quantity or just keep going more or less with what I am doing.

This is a good point.

A person might want to be as aggressive as he can be within his own means to acquire as many bitcoin as he is able to do, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as he does not cause something like the wealth (or the earlier BTC adoption) of someone else to cloud his own visions regarding some of his own limits.

There is no problem with some healthy levels of competition, since it is quite likely that many of us engage in a certain level of competition, yet there are also some needs for measuring our own levels of aggressiveness in reasonable kinds of ways in order that we do not end up overdoing it or even contributing to our own levels of becoming too emotional in the ways that we are investing and/or protecting ourselves..  

Let's say for example, there are two guys of very similar economic status and maybe in their early 30s, and maybe they earn around $40k per year and they are able to save and/or invest around $4k (10%) to $10k (25%) per year - depending on how aggressive they are or how much they had been building up their investment portfolios.. so if each of them had been investing and/saving for 10 years, there could be quite a bit of variance in both the size of their investment portfolio and also what is contained in their investment portfolio, and after 10 years investing,

Guy1-  Earlier bitcoin investor with 10% investment -  might have around $40k invested - but he discovered bitcoin 7 years ago.. so he has around $22k invested into traditional investments  like stocks ($8k in his first 2 years and then $14k in his last 7 years).. and around $18k invested into bitcoin at $50 per week that resulted in about 2 BTC.  If we assume around a 50% increase in the value of his traditional investment, his total investment portfolio is worth about $161k ($21k stocks + $140k BTC)

Guy2- Later Bitcoin investor with 25% invested -  might have $100k invested but only invested into traditional investments of stocks, and just discovered BTC... so the total value of his investment portfolio might be around $150k.. so this guy surely could catch up to the earlier guy by starting to invest aggressively into bitcoin at around $200 per week (or even lump sump moving some of his earlier investment into BTC), yet it does not seem as practical to lump sum invest with all of it, so he has to find some  kind of a balance and then start to pursue bitcoin with $200 per week and he will likely end up passing up the guy who is ONLY investing 10% of his income.. and perhaps only 5% into bitcoin.

On the other hand, if there were a third guy (guy3) with the same demographics as the other two and a 15% per year investment of his salary which would be $6k per year and a total of $60k invested over 10 years -  but who had taken both a more aggressive bitcoin stance and a more aggressive overall investment stance than the 10% guy but not as aggressive as the 25% guy, yet who had also discovered bitcoin around 7 years ago and who had been investing into bitcoin for the last 7 years at $100 per week, and who continues to invest at $100 per week.. so his total portfolio has $23,500 invested into stocks and then $36,500 invested into bitcoin with 4 BTC accumulated  So his total portfolio would be $315k ($35k stocks and $280k BTC)

The second guy who is investing 25% per year for the past 10 years is the most aggressive of the three investors, yet his total portfolio has performed the worst over the past 10 years, and since in this scenario, he had just discovered bitcoin, he surely could catch up and pass the first guy in a fairly short period of time, yet if those two guys were to maintain their same pace, it could take him 15-20 years to catch up to the third guy since the third guys in not overly aggressive, but he is maintaining a pretty good pace of $100 per week, and he might never catch up to the third guy unless he increases his income and/or cuts his expensive, but he might not have as much room to work with since he is already aggressively investing 25% of his income at $200 per week-ish, so it is not always easy to either increase your income or decrease your expenses in order to be able to invest more, so in some sense, the second guy just has to continue to invest at his own pace and there may be some points in which he ends up catching up to the third guy. but surely no guarantees and probably no reason to really overly stress out about.


I think that many of us are pushing the idea that every time that a long term investor adds new capital to his investment, then that new capital should be considered in terms of having a 4-10 year or longer timeline before it is going to be needed (or wanted), so surely if a guy is investing for 4-10 years or longer, by the time he gets into his 6th year of investing, he is going to have some of his earlier investments that have been brewing (or sitting for 6 years or so) and then his later investment amounts would have not had as much time to brew  (or to compound or to grow in value).. ... of course, the longer that he is investing the more options that begin to develop regarding how he might change the way that he builds and/or maintains his investment, so it would not really start to make sense to both buy and sell at the same time, but if he has enough time building, he might get to a point in which he thinks that he is able to somewhat attempt to play the trends.. but not necessarily structuring any sales in a way that he expects to be able to buy back.. so if he does not quite have enough (or he mis-measures how much he has versus how much he thinks he has), then he could end up running into a situation in which he sold too much too soon and/or he failed to continue to maintain enough focus on ongoing BTC accumulation.


Surely there is no certainty.. yet we might need to consider what we believe to be possibilities.

No one responded to my post from a few days ago in this very same thread when I attempted to assign some probabilities to where I speculated that the BTC prices might be 10 years from now... It was how I was thinking about the topic at the time of the posting, and sure the probabilities might change with the passage of time (and the happening of events), too.

 

We do not have to imagine, even though we could describe a certain kind of hypothetical of a guy who might have invested $100 per week for the past 5 years, and consider that their older bitcoin are likely more in profits than the more recent bitcoin, even though right now when BTC is bouncing around within 5% of the ATH territory, it is pretty much every single person is going to be in profits, and the longer they have been accumulating, the more profits that they would have put themselves in.. so long as they had not screwed around with trading and/or leverage (which may or may not have helped themselves in comparison to a more strict ongoing, consistent and persistent DCA strategy.

$100 per week of BTC accumulation over the past 5 years would have had resulted in $26,100 invested and 1.5578 BTC accumulated (currently worth about $109k - about 4.2x returns), and maybe not enough to feel comfortable to be at entry level fuck you status, but surely enough to cause a person to feel pretty good about his progress and the options that the BTC stash is providing.

Another example would be a guy who might have started investing 10 years ago at the same amount of $100 per week.  He would have had invested $52k into BTC and he would have accumulated nearly 44.4 BTC (which currently would be worth about $3.1 million - about 60x returns).. so there can can be quite a bit of value that comes from allowing additional time to pass - even though it seems quite unlikely that BTC is going to be returning such great returns...

None of us should be complaining even if BTC were to at least keep up with inflation (the debasement of the dollar and other fiats), and any kind of extra return would be a bonus... yet surely we are going to be more inspired to aggressively invest into bitcoin when we consider that it has good chances of beating rather than merely matching the performance of other possible places to put our value to save/invest.


Edit After I had written my whole response, @jossiel, I come to realize that I had misunderstood your points... so I went back through my response to attempt to fix it a bit.. .. but when I saw that it still might contain some of my earlier misunderstanding.. I decided to change my response.

I agree that a guy might believe that he has everything figured out, and then he ends up getting frustrated because he ends up buying at top.. and he had not really adequately planned for the correction, even though he thought that he was sufficiently prepared.

part of the trick is to get out of the trader mindset and get into the investor mindset.. which means to prepare yourself to be holding your investment into BTC for 4-10 years or longer no matter what the price does.. .. so if you are overly worried about the price, in regards to whether you are in profits or in the negative, then you likely have not prepared either the correct mindset of the correct approach that will prepare yourself to deal with the likely inevitable volatility of BTC prices... so preparing financially is figuring out position size but also having your financial matters in order that includes your maintaining emergency funds, reserves and a float.. emergency fund should be at least 3 months, but if you have complicated things going on in your life that either potentially involves expenses that could come up or fluctuations and/or drying up of your cashflow, then you need emergency funds that cover longer periods of time.

Also if you invest into bitcoin for 1-3 years and then the price goes shooting up and you cannot control your emotions because you see how much it had become worth and you just cannot resist but to tap into it, then likely you have to figure out some way to deal with that.. since what is it that you are wanting to do with the money?  Are you wanting to consume? or you want to diversify into other investments? or what is it that causes you to get worked up about it?  It could be that even though you are still in your BTC accumulation stage that you might have to take some off the table and to invest into other things because you cannot handle how much it had become, even though you should also realize that the amount of BTC that you might never be able to get back the amount of BTC that you end up shaving off.. so that should be factored into your consideration regarding how much BTC you feel that you need to shave off, and you should be attempting to do these things without emotion.. so that you had somewhat preplanned them rather than acting out too rashly merely based on sudden changes in the BTC price.


I agree it is good to attempt to think through the various scenarios and try to be prepared, even for extreme scenarios.

You don't like the idea of planning?  

Yes it can be difficult to plan for everything, yet we can set out some scenarios so that we are somewhat prepared to mostly know what we are going to do, and so if we end up doing something, we are already in the ballpark of what we had already planned, even if we might not have had planned the specific situation that ends up playing out.  We are likely not going to be able to completely know how certain matters will play out, but we should have a certain level of preparation for a variety of scenarios and also for some scenarios that go beyond our expectations.


It is true that if the BTC price goes shooting up, guys end up not really being as prepared as they thought that they were.

That is not true.  

You could plan that you are not selling any BTC if the price goes anywhere between $80k and $180k in the next 1 to 9 months.. and then maybe you have some plans that if it goes faster than that, then you might end up selling some.. even though you already might know that you are in accumulation phase and if they BTC price keeps going up then you have to make sure that you do not sell too much too soon.. so there are risks for any guys who are selling some of their BTC and they already know that they do not have enough BTC.


That is getting back to the idea of having your finances otherwise in order.. which is also having certain amounts of funds..

You may well be in another position jossiel than a member who is brand new to investing into bitcoin.. especially since you have been registered on the forum for more 8 years and 3 days.. happy anniversary.. so yeah if you been in bitcoin longer than you might have more luxuries in terms of how many BTC you have already accumulated.

Let's say for example that a guy has only been into bitcoin for a year and a half (looking at I_Anime), his income is about $36k per year, $3k per month, and he is investing about 15% into bitcoin which is $100 per week which is $5,200 per year and $7,800 for 18 months), he had continued to maintain a 3 month emergency fund and also 3 months of reserve funds, so if he had only been investing for 18 months, his investment into bitcoin would be merely around 0.282 BTC - which currently is close to $20k in value and slightly more than 6 months of his income (if we are looking at BTC spot price) .. so he should feel pretty good about all of that, and he has a steady income and is investing around 15% of his income into BTC, but then if the BTC price were to double to $140k, then all of a sudden his BTC holdings are more than 1 year of income.. and so if BTC prices double again to $380k, then he would have 2-3 years of income in his BTC holdings.. so then he might start to think that his investment is getting ahead of his levels of preparations, and he might have to take some BTC off the table in order to either bolster his emergency or reserve funds, or perhaps he starts to feel some needs to have some of his value in other assets/investments.. and so there is nothing wrong with having some of those kinds of considerations in advance and even plans to take some off of the table, even if the guy might have concluded that he does not have enough BTC.

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

In regards to my earlier description of the MSTR shorters, surely I don't claim to be any kind of expert in regards to what they are doing or even trading in the kinds of ways that they are doing, since those who place shorts (and/or profitable from shorting need to have a certain skill and/or luck and sometimes they will also employ informational warfare to get the market to agree with their short - which may or may not end up working out - since there could end up being a Streisand effect), and so yeah I would not be wanting to make those kinds of plays, but that is part of the reason there are differing opinions in the market including differing risk tolerances and differing ways to achieve success (or die trying to reach success).

I recognize that my own earlier characterization of what the MSTR shorters are doing was not very accurate since they are simultaneously shorting MSTR and longing BTC at the same time, so they are seeming to want to specifically attempt to arbitrage (or target) what they perceive to be the current MSTR premium to suggest that the current MSTR premium is way above and beyond the value of the BTC that MSTR holds and therefore the premium of the value of the MSTR shares is so far out of wack that it has to come back down closer to a more reasonable level.. and so it surely could be possible that the MSTR shorters could play the wave sufficiently well in order to actually profit from the current MSTR premium coming back down in line - instead of their getting reckt as I suggested to be a possibility, yet if they set their short of MSTR and their long of BTC correctly then it may well become harder for them to get completely reckt.. so yeah, earlier I had mischaracterized the way that they were shorting as if they were betting against both MSTR and also betting against BTC when they seem to be merely trying to ONLY be betting on the seeming premium coming down to what they believe should be more reasonable levels... which may or may not end up working out for them, depending upon how greedy they are before taking their profits (and close their short).. and also if the market ends up agreeing with them that the MSTR premium is too much at this particular time.

Edit:  Wow fillippone.. we posted at the exact same time... except yours was entered into the threadchain first.. so there is some kind of a micro-second measurement going on in these here parts.