In regards to accumulating BTC, from my perspective, there is a really BIG shortage in BTC holders, and the reason for that is because they are spending too much time waiting and not enough time acting, so I cannot see any tool to be helpful in terms of helping guys to engage in more strategizing than they already tend to do in their BTC accumulating process journey.

I also believe it is not correct to say that people who each have 10 BTC is the correct comparison, even though technically you are correct, yet I think that the main issue is that there may well be guys of more or less equal means, and some of them are more aggressive in their BTC accumulation than others, and surely it pays to be aggressive, and so part of the point is that one of the guys is going to end up with more BTC than the other, and the sooner he gets started accumulating BTC, the more he is likely to accumulate, yet there still can end up being cases where a more aggressive investor will be able to catch up, even if he comes to BTC later. 

In one of my posts within the past week, I attempt to outline those kinds of examples in one of my posts in which I compared the examples of three different guys, and to try to show their main difference was their level of aggressiveness and when they found out about bitcoin

FTFY^**

**An attempt at being more factually accurate.

It seems that the more poor you are (and the fewer the investments that you have), the more important it is to both establish an emergency fund and also to maintain that emergency fund in cash rather than in any other assets.. especially the first at least 3 months of your living expenses.  The thing with richer folks is that they may well have several options, and sure there are a certain amount of rich folks who are not very liquid (meaning that they are not keeping very much of their wealth in cash), but richer folks are still more likely to have options between which asset to sell, so in that regard, they can choose what they believe to be the asset that they value the least, but they also might get stuck with having to sell an asset that is the most liquid to deal with their emergency.. and so I am not going to presume that rich people don't end up fucking up BIG time, but they do tend to have more resources available, and so a person who is not as rich will tend to have to be way more careful not to end up either recking himself or overly ending up; having to dip into their investment because of their failures to properly have enough reserves, and a lot of poor people never end up making hardly any progress in their getting themselves out of holes because they either fail to keep enough emergency funds and reserves (because they are getting too greedy trying to make sure all their capital is "working," and another major kind of mistake that they make will be to either not let their winners ride or to be dipping into their investment way too soon and not letting their investments compound... and surely either of those kinds of BIG mistakes can be made better through better use of emergency funds, and also maintaining and managing reserves and cashfloats.


Sometimes we might get too greedy because we want all of our money to be working, and in something like bitcoin, it may well not be really very necessary - even though of course, there are no guarantees - but the essence is to want to stay invested, and if you end up getting very great returns on your bitcoin, then it might not matter  that you had 3 months to 9 months of your expenses continually available in cash and not working for you for 15-20 years or more.

There is something that is empowering about having the extra cash just being available, even though it is likely not only failing to earn interest but it is also likely half of its earlier value after 6-10 years.. and maybe also you are constantly having to add to your emergency fund because the first 5 years, you had kept $1k per month (so between $3k to $6k in your various emergency funds, reserves and float), but the next 5 years, you were no longer feeling comfortable with that amount, so you started to feel that you had to put $2k per month.. so $6k to $12k in the second 5 years.


You likely should feel reassured because maybe after 5-10 years investing, you end up getting up to 1-2 years of your income/expenses invested into bitcoin, and so maybe you would not feel as bad to be having all of that unworking capital just sitting around.

Another thing will be that if you try to be too whimpy on your emergency funds and reserves and you realize that the first 5 years, you always were able to get away with $3k to $6k in those funds.. ..  .. but then if the reality of the matter, is that your expenses and various complications in your finances have gone up, and you would be more justified to double your emergency funds and reserves, yet you choose to keep them the same as they had been previously, then no one is going to feel sorry for you, if you end up getting recked because you were being too stingy with your emergency funds/reserves, and you would ONLY have yourself to blame for your own failure/refusal to sufficiently assess your circumstances while your circumstances are likely to be changing from time to time and in need of adjustments that account for such changed circumstances.


Even guys who have pretty straight forward cashflow and pretty straightforward expenses, they are still likely are going to have some variance in their cashflow and/or what their reserve levels might reach.. so for sure the emergency funds would likely be the least flexible in terms of your never wanting to use them yet they still might have to grow from time to time to account for what is at minimum of 3 months worth of expenses... and  so there would likely be times in which you have a certain amount of emergency funds, a certain amount of reserves a certain amount of float, but also a certain amount that is just extra beyond those categories, so you will want to decide are you going to put that in to bitcoin or into something else... you have more options the more funds that you have, but of course, your own situation should be dictating to you where to put your funds.

Let's say that the guy has already been buying around 10% to 15% of his income in BTC for the past 5 years, and so he has invested close to 3/4 of year of his salary into bitcoin, but bitcoin has performed to such a level that it is about 1.5x his annual income,  He has emergency funds that are about 3 months of his income and various classifications of reserves that are around 4-5 months of his income, so some of his reserves are already assigned for buying BTC on dips and other parts of his reserves is his entertainment fund and another part of his reserves is dedicated to his transportation costs and another part of his reserves have been to save up to buy his daughter a bicycle and another part of his reserves is saving up for a vacation, and another part of his reserves is to pay for the construction of a storage shed, and so if he has extra money coming in then he can figure out if he wants to buy BTC with it or maybe he thinks that he should use some of that extra money to invest into something else...  My point is that the guy's circumstances and priorities should be helping to guide the extent to which his extra money goes into bitcoin or into something else, and if you notice, there can be certain parts of the guy's reserves that have higher priorities than others, and he sometimes, might have to dip from one portion of his reserves and to put it into something else, and he would spend from his reserves before he spent from his emergency fund, since no matter what he does not want his emergency fund to go any lower than 3 months (unless he really had an emergency and he had already spent from his reserves prior to dipping into his emergency fund).

No one is going to tell you if you have enough or too much, even though some practices might be more risky, and maybe you have a list of things that you want, but you only save up for them one item at a time, but you could still end up building up part of your reserves and then at some point redesigning it to something else, and maybe the part of your reserves that are dedicated towards buying BTC on dips have the highest priority, but if your wife does not get the vacation that you told her that you were going to pay for then, you might have to reconsider you priorities.


I think that the longer that anyone invests, the more and more comfort that he should have about having had built various systems to protect his investment, but surely one of the problems becomes that sometimes people will start to unnecessarily take extra risks with some of their investment and not protecting themselves as much as they should, and surely there can be points in which your holdings are more vulnerable than others, yet sometimes we cannot always know while we are in the middle of the process, and we can ONLY do as much as we are able to do, in terms of making our own best and solid practices to make sure that we are sufficiently protecting our portfolios and perhaps being aggressive without over doing it.. . and sometimes normies (normal people)_ do not always realize when they are either overdoing it or they are too far on the whimpy side or too far on the aggressive side...


Bitcoin does not have "gas fees"

That is a shitcoin way of describing matters.  

If you are talking about bitcoin, then you might be referring to transaction fees or even exchange fees, perhaps?

Surely there are several factors to account when establishing your BTC position - and the earliest of BTC accumulators probably should be accumulating at any price until the start to get a certain level in which they might be able to be more selective.

I probably would not want to be involved with any kind of tool that overly attempts to strategize in regards to when to buy bitcoin, since my frequent suggestion is to attempt to be as aggressive as you can in regards to investing into bitcoin without over doing it, so even though I am not opposed to the theories of holding back in order to buy on dips, yet from my perspective, there could problems for either suggesting waiting to accumulate or advising to wait to accumulate.. so I am not too excited about anything that might contribute towards waiting.. even though I do understand and agree with ideas about having some money available for buying on dips.. and I also agree with front-loading, even though it can be difficult to know when to engage in any of those kinds of behaviors except for being able to appreciate that you might not have enough BTC so there can be various strategies to employ to attempt to increase the likelihood of accumulating more BTC.. .... but then maybe I have another concern that it is more important to have more BTC even if you had to spend more per BTC to get it, rather than having fewer BTC..

Would you rather be a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is ONLY $1k per BTC, but he ONLY has 2 BTC? or a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is $10k per BTC but he has 10 or more BTC?

One of the things that seems to make bitcoin special is that it is an asset that is amongst the best, if not the best, asset that is widely available to the whole world's population, so a goal of accumulating as many as you can within your own means of gathering seems to be more important than figuring out your average cost per BTC... while at the same time, once you established enough and/or more than enough BTC within the bounds of your assessments of your needs for cashflow, then you can start to use these kinds of sustainable withdrawal tools and perhaps even largely continue to hold your BTC and allow your BTC holdings to continue to grow (at least in terms of dollar values) since the tools might allow you to figure out ways to strategize your sells in either such a way that you don't have to sell as much or alternatively pace your sales.. ... I still have not completely figured out a way on a personal level to completely use any of the advance month sales because it frequently is not going to feel good to sell large amounts of your BTC unless you are starting to feel that the BTC price is getting into territories of over-exuberance, and I am not even going to concede to knowing when that is going to be, so each person would need to figure out the extent to which s/he wants to sell months of withdrawal authorizations in advance.


I find those DCA tools to already be very good tools for figuring out where a person would have had been if he had followed a certain level of strict DCA strategy, even for some period and then selecting another period and then doing some of the math ourselves in regards to if there might have had some periods of lump sum in the buying period or buying dips.

So sometimes we might be able to see where our actual bitcoin holdings are, versus where our holdings would have been or could have been if we were to have had followed some other strategy... and sometimes even being able to see if whatever we are currently doing is competitive with some kind of a strict DCA strategy or if we might have over-performed or under-performed such a strategy.

The tools are likely ONLY going to take us so far.. and surely one of the advantages of already having had established a BTC stash that might be enough or more than enough is that either this sustainable withdrawal tool, or even my raking tool, can help to give us ideas in regards to how to reasonably manage the stash that we had already established. .and if we had been investing in bitcoin for several cycles, then it becomes more and more likely that we are going to be in sufficient profits.. which is another problem with considering merely simple profits, and from my own point of vies simple profits do not make very much difference, since sure maybe we can sell some of our BTC based on merely being in simple profits, but if we build and hold BTC profits for several cycles, it becomes more and more likely that our BTC holdings will already start to be in a kind of status of compounding profits, which additionally justifies the employment of a sustainable withdrawal status that ends up likely taking advantage of the ability of the BTC holdings to continue to compound in value... ..

but then again once someone might be in the process of actually wanting to sustainably withdraw from his BTC stash, he may no longer be as concerned about compounding value, but instead more appreciating of the fact that BTC prices (especially measured by the 200-WMA) are continuing to out perform traditional investments which likely justifies the abilities to employ withdrawal rates that are much higher than if he were to keep his value in traditional investments, so surely it is becoming more apparent to me that a 10% withdrawal strategy has good chances of continuing to be sustainable in bitcoin, which largely means that a guy in bitcoin may well ONLY need to have $800k in bitcoin as compared to $2 million in traditional investments (again measuring by the 200-WMA is currently a reduction from around 60.8 BTC to 24.3 BTC.  each of them would constitute around a $6,666 month withdrawal amount... yet having the value in BTC likely causes the lower amount of BTC to be more sustainable than if the higher amount of BTC were sold into dollars and surely of course, since the current BTC price is a bit more than double the 200-WMA, then around 30 BTC could be sold right now to get the $2million fuck you status.. . .and maybe include having to sell a bit more for taxes.. (maybe 36 BTC), so then if the guy is walking away with $2 million in cash then he would presumptively need to invest it somewhere in order to get the 4% withdrawal rate and/or the $6,666 per month of income off of that.

I would feel much more comfortable having 24.3 BTC in BTC and using a 10% withdrawal rate in order to get the $6,666 per month of cashflow perpetually and in a sustainable way based on bitcoin's ongoing expected growth rate, and at the same time we can look at actual BTC's 200-WMA growth rate to attempt to verify if we are expecting the amount to come down and/or if our anticipated ongoing 10% withdrawal rate is continuing to be sustainable.

There is nothing really wrong with those kinds of conclusions - except for a realization that emergency funds tend to be denominated in the fiat in which bills are paid because assets can suffer liquidity events at the same time, then you are fucked  because everything might be going down in value at the same time, and you are forced to sell some things because you did not have enough cash.  Think about what happened March 2020 as an extreme example, but it is still an example of something that could happen and you would not want to be caught on the wrong side in which you had to sell either your assets and/or your bitcoin at a time that they had just taken around a 50% or more draw down in a day and with no clarity in sight when they were going to stop going down.....

so sometimes if you are going to end up wanting to be cute in regards to making sure that your various kinds of emergency funds, reserves and/or float is working for you while in storage for a long time, is that you would still have the first 3 months or so in cash or cash equivalents that are easy to draw upon, maybe in a combination of physical, in banks, in other kinds of accounts that may or may not be interest bearing.

When shit hits the fan, you have to largely be prepared already in advance to be able to weather through the situation... maybe the bad situation only lasts a month or two, or maybe it ends up lasting several months, even 6 months or more, and so there might be some point in which you are also looking at your bitcoin as one of your forms of liquidity that you need something and you are running out of resources, and surely there could be cases in which you are in that situation, and maybe there could have had been ways that you could have better protected yourself.

Maybe I can give my own example?

Through 2017 and early 2018, I had been planning for some construction that I knew was going to cost a certain amount that was probably equal to 3-5% of the value of my then BTC stash, and so I had set aside about half of the expenses that I had calculated were boint to come due in January, February, March and April 2019.

As we likely realize throughout 2018, BTC spot prices went down from around $19,666 and down to a low of around $3,124, so throughout 2018, I was buying BTC on the way down with my designated cash and keeping in mind my construction cost bills were coming due in early 2019 - yet what ended up happening is there were higher costs than expected and the bills started coming due in October, November and December 2018, so really a few months earlier than expected.. and .. so there was some point around November 2018, that I was getting close to running out of cash from all of my various sources, and I ended up selling around 3.5% of my then BTC holdings (at various prices in the $3,800 to $4,200 range), and maybe over the next several  months I ended up buying back around 50% of what I had sold, yet the overall lesson was that I had made a mistake in properly planning and maintaining enough funds to both cover all of the extra expenses but also to sufficiently prepare for the level of the BTC price drop that ended up playing, which largely likely meant that I was buying back way too much BTC on the way down from $19,666 to $3,124 and I should have had held more of those cash reserves (that were dedicated towards buying bitcoin) in my cash reserves that should have had been dedicated for paying for my construction expense.

So, the punchline is that due to my errors, my lack of properly keeping enough cash on hand, there remains a certain quantity of my BTC that I ended up selling in the price range between $3,800 to $4,200 that I was not able to buy back.. which probably was around 1-2% of my then BTC stash that was not able to be bought back.. .. except, I suppose later that I probably ended up buying some of that back at higher prices.. but even that is not really clear in terms of whether my BTC stash might have had ended up being forever reduced by 1-2% because of the price point in which they were sold and the fact that BTC prices were near bottom prices.. so ultimately it was a mistake of selling low rather than selling high.. and then never being able buy back at lower than the sell point (except for my mentioning that about half of it did seem to have had been bought back, so instead of shaving off 3-4% of my BTC stash the end result was only 1-2% of my BTC stash having had been shaved off.


But I already mentioned the idea that the cash in your emergency fund.. perhaps up to 3 months expenses is likely going to suffer from not earning any interest or growing but instead ongoingly shrinking in value, which means that more and more funds will likely have to be added to the emergency funds and if you are lucky (and you don't have any emergency), then you may well end up ongoingly maintaining an emergency fund for 20-30 years or longer that continues to get larger and larger in terms of its nominal dollar value, but none of that money (up to around 3 months of your expenses) is earning any income nor interest, just continuing to debase in its value.. but it is a cost of staying safe and hoping that you actually never have to use it.. but it is also likely keeping your rich too. .because you would also never have to touch your BTC investment (or any of your other investments) at a time that is not completely of your own choosing.

Let's say that you spend 20 years investing into something like BTC at 15% per year, so after 6.67 years, you have invested a year's of your income, and so after 20 years you have invested around 3x of your yearly income, but at the same time you have continued to maintain at least 3 months of an emergency fund and sometimes you would have an extra 6-18 months of reserves and float, and so much of that cash was not really working through the last 20 years, but hopefully your bitcoin was working during that time and sufficiently made up for the fact that your various forms of cash were not working.. and you can do these kinds of calculations to figure out whether it was worth it to maintain these various systems including calculating if it would have had been better to use your BTC and/or your other investments as your emergency fund, which surely is a kind of sloppy behavior that we see people do and we see normies get reckt as fuck too and they end up having fun staying poor because they never get ahead and they are always gambling with their money.. so by the time they maybe could have had been to fuck you status, instead they are having to work until they die and they also might not even be able to increase their standard of living because they failed/refused to properly invest and/or to properly protect their investments.


Exactly!!!!!  That is the dilemma.  You want to have an emergency fund (or an insurance plan) that you never have to use.. but it is there.. .just in case your house burns down...but you would rather that your house did not burn down, but you are ready, just in case it does.


once you have 3 months of cash, you could potentially have some things that are cash equivalents that might take a month or two to cash in, but they hold their value.  When you start to try to keep your emergency fund in too many other kinds of assets, then you surely run the risk of them all being volatile in the same direction, which is opposite of the dollar (or whatever fiat you use), of course, the richer you become, the less you have to worry about these matters because you likely have all kinds of various assets to draw from and you might not be as concerned if some of them are down or up when it comes time for you to use any of them, and you may also be so much in profits that any emergency might only be 1-2% of your total wealth, versus a more poor person who might get completely wiped out from any small emergency.. especially if he does not set asides funds and cushions to protect himself. .and it can take time to both build up those kinds of protection systems and also get into the practice of using them in such a way that you don't get your own false sense of security because you end up depleting them or using them and then when the real emergency comes, you are fucked because you did not maintain your emergency funds, your reserves and/or your cash float properly..

No one is going to hold your hand either, so if you fuck up, it is completely on you to figure out what kind of balances to make to make sure that you are investing aggressively enough while at the same time, making sure that you maintain sound financial practices in the direction of how you maintain your emergency fund, reserves and float.

Emergency fund is not an ongoing expense. Once you establish it (such as having 3 months of expenses.. or maybe you want to have more than 3 months?), then it is established. 

Of course there is the concept of float and reserves too, and maybe it does not matter so much what these are called, but there still should be practices in place in which you would not spend from any of your emergency funds until you were to exhaust your reserves first... and so there could be a certain urgency to replenish emergency funds that are spent as compared to potentially less urgency in regards to reserves and float - even though all of the extra money that you have likely allows you to be more aggressive in your investing into bitcoin when you have otherwise good financial management so that you would never have to touch your BTC, except completely at a time of your own choosing... which may well be years down the road, or at least years after spending a lot of time building it up and/or otherwise managing and maintaining it.

In regards to some kind of a target of saving and/or investing 20% of your income.. that seems attainable, even though it does sound a bit more than what many folks shoot for, yet any exact percentage amount would be a product of discretion and/or fair assessments of how much discretionary/disposable income the guy has... so then if half of the 20%  were to go into bitcoin (that would be 10%) and the other half were to be just kept in cash, then that other 10% could be considered as float or as reserves depending to the extent to which you might designated towards something that you are saving up for, such as saving up to buy a bicycle or saving up to have money for buying BTC on dips or some other purpose that you might keep some extra cash on the sides (even saving up to go on vacation or to take your wife/girlfriend on a date).   

On the other hand, if your emergency fund is not yet built up to a sufficient size, such as being 3 months of expenses or more, then yeah there is no problem putting that 10% into the emergency fund until it gets up to the amount that it needs to be and then there would not necessarily be any need to add further to such emergency fund or to withdraw from it, absent some rationale to touch it.

Well, why don't you tell us more about yourself.. and have you already started to buy bitcoin. 

There are all kinds of bitcoin-specific and bitcoin-related threads on this forum, and there are all kinds of information sources available about bitcoin, so maybe you have to let us know what kinds of efforts you are making to sort through information sources that are already available in terms of your own attempts to figure out which information might be better or which information might be worse, and why do you think so.


Ultimately you have to figure out your own balances that relate to the various resources that you might have available to you, how steady is any income and/or expenses that you have and how likely are you going to end up needing the extra funds, because the emergency fund, once you establish it, you should not be dipping into it.  It would just be there and always available.  Of course, since you do not want to our need to dip into your emergency fund, then many of the times if you might have shortages of cash, you would be working with your reserves and your float.. so yeah you gotta figure out how much of those various categories to keep available, and surely the larger your BTC stash gets, then that also might affect the extent that you might feel that you need to be diversified in other assets... whether that be in cash or otherwise.. .. sometimes we could think about various other forms of investments (besides bitcoin) as ways of holding cash in different kinds of ways and to be able to earn interest or yield or dividends or that it might also appreciate but be something other than bitcoin, even though bitcoin and cash will tend to be way more liquid while other forms of assets may well be less liquid, but holding value in various ways will give you options to spend from the less valuable assets prior to touching your bitcoin in the event that you might conclude that bitcoin might be the best of your investments that you don't want to touch or being playing around with until it reaches a certain size in which you would thereby start to authorize yourself  to start to dip into it. within systems and under circumstances that you have already established for yourself, once you get to such an overaccumulation level  that could take 4-10 years or longer just to build your BTC holdings to such levels.



When you are in your earliest stages of building your emergency fund, there likely would be some benefits in building them together and then at least you would be making progress in getting started in terms of investing into bitcoin.   Many times emergency funds are form of cash that are very liquid but they may well not be earning any interest or gaining value, so there could be some sense that those funds are neither working for you and that they might be losing  value as fast as you can build them up, so in that sense, you might have quite a bit of hesitancy in holding very much value in cash and/or cash equivalents, even though it is likely in your own interest to keep such cushions, especially once you are building a BTC stash that you likely are not going to want to touch for 10-20 years or maybe even longer.. depending on your own investment timeline.. .. but surely even if you might not consider that you do not want to touch your BTC for a long time, you might be able to get your BTC stash to such a high enough level that you start to feel comfortable to consider either dipping into it or maybe just discontinuing in terms of adding to it, except maybe ONLY during significant dips if they end up happening.

The development of your own situation of the value of your BTC stash and other circumstances is going to inform you how to manage and maintain it once it starts to increase in size, so long as you likely realize it is amongst the best of the assets that you hold.. which likely should have good chances of remaining a good perspective, even though each of us has to figure out our own senses of valuating and balancing our properties, investment allocations and other assets/currencies.


Of course there is likely going to be some variances, and sometimes, you might have reached a good balance regarding what you are doing that is going to work until your circumstances change and then from time to time, you may well end up having to reassess.. just like if you suddenly had an expense that you had not expected or you suddenly receive some income that you had not expected.  In either case, the longer that you practice balancing your various finances, the more you will be prepared to deal with either situation of an extra expense or extra income coming in to you.


It is quite likely that guy 2 has a kind of personality that he is likely going to be able to catch up and pass up both guy 1 and guy 3, and guy1 he will probably pass fairly quickly, but you are right, it could take him a long time to catch guy 3 (maybe even a few bitcoin cycles), and that is presuming that each of the guys are just versions of themself and stick with their same kinds of personalities that are different from one another.... and of course, in the real world, there are no guarantees with any thing, and sometimes personalities change, even though part of the attempt with those 3 hypotheticals were to show someone with similar circumstances, but only a few differences in the variables,

so in some sense we could just say that guy2 is merely competing with alternative versions of himself.. versions that were more whimpy in their investment style but also versions of himself who had found out about bitcoin 7 years earlier than he did.. so guy2 remains quite disadvantaged, but not so disadvantaged as that he should give up because he cannot change the past, and he can ONLY start to invest into bitcoin after he finds out about it.  He cannot turn back the clock, so his finding out about bitcoin later than guy1 and guy 3 does not mean that he should not get started in terms of investing into bitcoin right away and within the boundaries of his own circumstances.. including that his circumstances are going to change with the passage of time, and some of the aspects are somewhat knowable and other aspects of his circumstances are merely projections of various things that he believes might happen..


I doubt that your attempt at clarifying is very helpful.

Just think of the term cryptocurrency as an ambiguous term that should not be used unless you are clear about what you mean, and whether you are talking about bitcoin or something else.  If you are talking about bitcoin, then why not use the term bitcoin, and if you feel that you need to talk about some shitcoin or some broader context, so you use the term cryptocurrency to refer to bitcoin and other things that are related to bitcoin, such as shitcoins, then you clarify that is what you are talking about. 

If you say that bitcoin is just one of many types of cryptocurrencies, even if you might be technically correct, you are both wrong and being ambivalent, and perhaps even being malicious if you are trying to suggest that other coins are similar to bitcoin merely because they are copying bitcoin or trying to affinity scam related to either being equal to or better than bitcoin or otherwise creating ambiguities that failure to help in the understanding what bitcoin is prior to just placing bitcoin in some kind of vague, ambiguous and potentially misleading category.

Just think of the term crypto currency as a kind of attack upon the understanding of what is bitcoin.. so in that sense if you use the term "crypto", then you at least clarify what you mean by your use of it... and your clarification of your use of such term might also overly confuse why you need to use such terms in the first place, especially if you might have meant to be talking about bitcoin, then frequently it will be better to just use the term bitcoin and otherwise specify what else you might be talking about in relation to bitcoin if you are wanting to talk about something more than bitcoin. ..

If you are using the term crypto and you are talking about something other than bitcoin, then you can also specify that you are talking about various non-bitcoin terms to the extent that you might want to say something about various shitcoins it also might be good to specify which ones you are talking about or if you are just speaking in generalities to say something about the shitcoin space...

In the end, we likely can realize that not enough people know or understand bitcoin, otherwise more people would own bitcoin.. so yeah.,. too bad that we are still in the ballpark of 1%-ish adoption.. .so people don't even realize that it is to their best interest to learn about bitcoin and get some.. and so any of us who are already in such process, we are likely 10-15 years ahead of the masses coming into bitcoin - even though there are surely some rich people who are coming into bitcoin and hoarding all the coins, but you cannot stop people from coming in and front loading their investment into BTC, just like you cannot force normies to learn about bitcoin and to get the fuck started out of their own best interest (that they don't realize), and so each person has to come to bitcoin at his/her own pace and when s/he finally figures out that it is in his/her best interest to get some.

Hopefully, I am not delusional.  It ONLY ended up being two of the columns that got greenie incorrectly.

USD/BTC - looks correct -  

GBP/BTC - looks correct -

EUR/BTC - 4/5/21 is greater than 100 - 3/13/21, 97 - 3/20/21, 95 3/30/21 94 4/3/21  and several more examples of dates earlier 4/5/21

CAD/BTC - 3/31/21 is greater than 95 - 3/18/21, 93 - 3/19/21, 88 3/30/21 84 3/30/21  and several more examples of dates earlier 3/31/21

JPY/BTC - looks correct -

KRW/BTC - looks correct -

AUD/BTC - looks correct -

UAH/BTC - looks correct -

IDR/BTC - looks correct -


I doubt that the 200-WMA is better than the 200-DMA - Those two indicators (averages) are just used for differing purposes, and like I said, it is quite likely that 200-WMA will always have the latest day on the top because it is constantly and continuously moving up, even in bad times (at least so far.. times have not quite gotten bad enough, yet)... and surely, I think that the 100-WMA also has interesting info to provide since it is a kind of intermediary timeline.. . but yeah, each of the indicators can be looked at for certain kinds of purposes whether considering short-term, medium-term or long-term. .

Remember that the 200-DMA is right close to the 30-WMA (I misstated 50WMA in my earlier post), so it is a little more than 1/2 a year for the 200-WMA to play out, but the 100-WMA would be average price for right about 2 years and 200-WMA would be average price for right about 4 years.

I understand what you are saying, Dorkylickjj .. but it is still unclear..

Technically, you are correct.

An emergency fund it 3-6 months worth of income - yet more accurately, an emergency fund would be 3-6 months of expenses, and sure if you build up an amount of an emergency fund that is actually 3 months of your income, then it likely should end up going a little bit longer than 3 months - depending upon if you might be able to reduce your expenses during any actual emergency that would end up taking place... and if anyone ends up having an actual emergency, he likely is going to dread if he were to ONLY have 3 months and wished that he were to have more, yet we know that it likely tends to take quite a bit of resources to build up an emergency fund, even one as small as 3 months.. yet it is something that really provides a lot of security and ability to take greater risks and to be more aggressive in terms of investing into something like bitcoin.. ..

Another thing is that many of us likely imagine that if we are brand new to investing and we are living in a way similar to many people, we might start out with only 2-4 weeks worth of float, reserves and/or emergency funds, and so we might have frequently considered that 2-4 weeks is quite a bit of "extra cash" just sitting around and just there  for various shortages in cashflow, and we might be able to get by for years and years and years with such pracices of sparsely maintaining savings and/or any emergency fund.

So if we are wanting to build up our current emergency fund, float, reserves to be at least 3 months and likely to have a bit more than 3 months in there, then it well could take us 6-18 months to build it up to such higher levels.. .. just depending on how much discretionary income that we have and if we might simultaneously be wanting to get started investing into bitcoin and building our emergency fund, reserves and float at the same time that we are making our earliest investments into bitcoin and sat stacking.


That is a pretty dangerous mindset AirtelBuzz

I will agree that there are practices that are better than others, and there are a lot of ways to hedge your bets so that you have very good odds of success.. .. but no one is guaranteed of success, even if s/he does everything 100% correct.

And, I doubt that any of us should believe that we can even do all things 100%, yet we can try to do the best that we can with the resources that we have and we can make sure that we think through our allocations and make sure that we have various cushions.. but still we could make mistakes or there could be some crazy kinds of oversights or mistakes that we end up making, which also might end up being largely blamed on bad luck rather than anything that we did wrong.

Anyhow, it is dangerous to think that matters are guaranteed, even though there are quite a few things that we can do that are building in a direction that is within our preparations and expectations and to improve our odds of success in terms of however we might define success that is hopefully based on our own individual circumstances.


There are shitcoiners with legitimate confusion, and they might think that they already know about bitcoin or they know enough about bitcoin.. so frequently a person will not know what they don't know, so even smart people can get sucked into various shitcoin talking points without actually realizing that they have little to no clue in regards to what bitcoin is.

Another thing is that there likely are a lot of people who have heard of the word bitcoin, and they might think that they have some kind of a decent idea what it is, yet merely hearing the word and sometimes hearing some mainstream rendition of what it is, is not enough to actually realize actually what bitcoin is.. and so actually understanding ideas of sound money might be a bit more foreign to people than we presume such a topic as "common sense" when there are a lot of ways that people can get sucked into believing they know more than they do, and it may well be a good idea for some of them to actually spend a bit of time really studying bitcoin specifically.. whether it takes 10, 50, 100, 500 or 1,000 hours of study may well vary from person to person and the kind of source materials they are studying.

Some folks have a lot of difficulties distinguishing between good information and bad information, and they might actually believe the sources of their bad information and believe that their bad information is good information, and so when they actually come across some accurate and informative information about bitcoin, they might skeptically conclude that the good information could not be true since it conflicts with what they believe to be credible sources.

I was listening to a program earlier today about how the greedy companies are gouging consumers by raising their food prices, and so it can sometimes be difficult to realize that money printer go bbbbbrrrrrrr is way more blame worthy than what normies want to give governments more power to control prices - which surely does not seem to be a good solution, and I am not even anti-government, yet we likely should realize that it becomes problematic to have too many controls in place, even though maybe it becomes difficult to get rid of the controls .. so bitcoin and bitcoiners are going to sometimes end up being targeted as part of the problem rather than part of the solution... which still gets us back to either having information available but also having abilities to sort through good information versus not so good information... and we are all not going to agree.. but at the same time do we have rights and/or abilities to disagree or are we told what we are supposed to think and are we accepting of being told what to think.. and do we realize when we are being told what to think versus engaging in our own abilities to critically think about what might really be in our own best interests.

Oh?   so you just came up with that rhyme?

Of course $66k is a dip, as compared to the $74k price that it was 3 weeks ago, yet we still cannot know which direction the price is going to go and how long it might stay within other price ranges - whether higher or lower from here.

As you suggested, if you already have a lot of BTC, then you are in a better position to just sit matters out and maybe even sell some, if that is what you want to do.

But if you don't have much or any BTC, then you still have to figure out what you are going to do, and if you had been buying BTC in the last month or so, then why would you not continue to buy BTC - that is unless you ran out of money for buying.


Hopefully, you are not ONLY preparing for down.. since down may or may not end up happening.


but it might not, too.


How do you know?


That sounds a bit ridiculous.   Not that you might NOT be correct, but that you think that you actually know what is going to happen.


It sounds like you got it all figured out. 

Good luck with that kind of thinking, you are likely going to need it.


Either you don't know what you are talking about, or you are in the wrong thread.

We are not talking about trading here, and if we are talking about investing, we do not necessarily need to be trying to figure out when to sell in order to buy more BTC at a lower price, which surely is trading (gambling) rather than investing.

You seem to be mislead if you think that trading is another kind of investing - since surely trading is not necessary in order to invest, and it is actually not a good idea to trade unless you develop some kind of a technique and skills to figure out how to either anticipate price directions and/or to hedge your various ways of buying and selling, which again is not what we are talking about in this thread or even recommending.

There have been a lot of people who have done really well in bitcoin, including doing way better than traders by employing various investment techniques that largely revolve around various ways of accumulating and holding BTC, which is the topic of this thread.. and surely you even likely realize the main BTC accumulating techniques as being dollar cost averaging, lump sum buying and buying on dips.

Of course in order to be decently good investor there are some personal finance management techniques that will help the investor to better recognize the extent to which he has available capital, including managing his discretionary/disposable income - which is largely the extra that is available between the amount of income coming in and the expenses, and surely if a person has saved up money and/or investments in other assets and/or currencies, then putting some or all of that value into bitcoin could be taken into account and potentially considered as a possible investment allocation option.


Of course, there are folks who might buy 20, 30 or more of various shitcoins, and then hope that 1, 2 or more of them might shoot into profits and to make up for the money that they lost on the others... which truly seems like a BIG ass waste of time, money and energies, which is part of the reason to recommend that those folks who cannot resist the temptation to involve themselves in shitcoin to limit their exposure to less than 10% the size of their bitcoin holdings, yet part of the problem with any degenerate gambler and person attracted to shitcoins is that they cannot limit their own level of lunacy, degeneracy, greed,  and/or desires to get rich quick.

Sure, there could be some of them that are able to save themselves from such temptations or to limit their exposure while maintaining their eye on the prize, which is bitcoin, but they don't seem to be a very common kind of person, even though everyone likes to consider themselves as reasonable, it is easy to get drawn into the shitcoin talking points... which we should also limit ourselves in terms of talking about it too much here.. except just suggest not to do it or at least to limit how much you do it and perhaps talk about it somewhere else so that we don't waste our time too much with such mostly meaningless distractions.

Hey peter0425.  I thought that you had told me that you learned your lesson in regards to your past pissing around with trying to scalp prior to reaching some decent BTC accumulation amounts?

In other words, those scalping ideas tend to be a slippery slope and might not be a good idea until you get to a state of overaccumulation of BTC... and yeah at the same time, every guy has to make his own choices in regards to either whether to continue to accumulate or to start to piss around with scalping prior to such a time of reaching overaccumulation of BTC.


You are inaccurate if you are proclaiming that BTC prices are going up merely because fiat value is debasing (and/or inflation of prices).  Sure, there is some of that going on, but the debasement of fiat is not the ONLY factor that explains BTC price appreciation.. .. so hopefully you are not allowing such simplified (yet not completely false) talking points dissuade you from making sure that you sufficiently/adequately allocate to bitcoin to the best of your abilities.

And by the way, there are a lot of reasons why BTC prices are going up faster than the debasement of the dollar(fiat), including but not limited to sound money ideas, but also in terms of exponential s-curve adoption kinds of ideas that also tie into the seven network effects as outlined by Trace Mayer.

Two points  - questions:

1) it appears that the script related to the green date in several of the columns is not correct in terms of actually choosing/showing the oldest date... .. but then you had said that you were putting that in manually, then maybe you might have made some mistakes in regards to which dates are older than other dates?  Asking for a friend.

2) I had been a bit surprised that the 200-Day Moving Average is still not showing dates in the top 100, so surely that is interesting.. I frequently consider the 200-Day and the 50-Week 30-Week moving average to be very similar. .. so then that got me thinking about the 100-Week Moving Average and the 200-Week Moving average. I am not sure if the data that you are using have either of those pieces of information.  For sure the longer the period the less variability that it has, and it seems that so far with the 200-WMA, it ONLY goes up.. even though there have been some periods that it got down to being as low as going up ONLY $10-ish per day.. and currently it seems to be going up around $45-ish per day.. so there could be some value in those, even though they add more columns and more work.  It could be interesting to see these.

Edited: correcting 50-WMA to 30-WMA.

Oh?  For sure we should not forget that one, and it has already been won and continues to be won, and has very good chances to continue to be won.. and that should be part of the explanation for anyone still coming newly into bitcoin or formulating their bitcoin position would at most lose 100% of what they had invested, yet they have great potential for ongoing and continued upside - even though it is not guaranteed.  There is also no guarantees in regards to short-term volatility or that if guys do not figure out ways to balance their fiat life and their bitcoin life that they might not be able to profit from such ongoing asymmetric bet because perhaps they got too greedy or they were otherwise irresponsible with their own finances.  I am not going to proclaim to know all the various ways that guys might not balance their situations badly, and there surely could be circumstances of bad luck that were beyond reasonable abilities to prepare.

Even several of the guys who have been in bitcoin for a long time may well be faced with decisions regarding the extent to which they have enough BTC or if they might have too much and how to balance those kinds of considerations - not a bad place to be for guys who already conclude that they have enough cornz or more than enough.. and perhaps some guys might feel that they never have enough, even when they may well already have enough.. and so none of us can really answer for another guy's assessment - even when such guy might provide us with what seems to be enough information to have some ideas of better courses of action going forward - even if we might somewhat frame our assessment in terms of our own thoughts about "what would I do if I were him?"


I did not completely come up with that $40k/$80k framework on my own.  It seemed to have largely been a product of several back and forth conversations with dragonvslinux, and so I perceived that he was very close to agreeing to such a bet about which one first $40k or $80k, and surely of course, I was going with $80k and he would have had been going with $40k, and that was only around a week and a half ago, and that was when we were just barely recovering from our dip to nearly $60k, yet D_vs_L said that he did not want to enter into such a bet unless the BTC price were to drop below $60k. .which I am not sure if I would have had still wanted to enter in that same bet on the same terms if we were to need to drop below $60k first, and since the BTC price had not then (and so far has not) dropped below $60k, I cannot even be sure that he will still want to enter into such bet if the BTC price were to get below $60k or what further conditions he might require (such as closing a daily candle below $60k or some other seemingly moving of the goal posts (seemingly from my perspective), yet I was not completely opposed to potentially entering into the bet or perhaps some of alternative framework which was both my counter-proposal that I would bet that the BTC price would not go to less than 20% above the 200-WMA throughout 2024 and 2025 or another alternative that BTC's high spot price would be higher in 2025 than it whatever it reaches in 2024, and surely I think that any of those 3 possible were not greatly biased in my favor but they were seemingly counter to some of his own assertions and some assertions that some other members have been making regarding their anticipation of various dynamics of this particular cycle...... and furthermore, I also speculate that such terms that I was proposing were sufficiently reasonable and did not greatly favor me.. ..

while at the same time, I considered that anyone who earlier had been making such seemingly strong proclamations in regards to various current bitcoin dynamics and/or their views of future dynamics (and purportedly with sincerity) as he (dragonvslinux) had been making, then such persons should be more than willing to enter into any of those bet terms, including not necessarily needing the then BTC price to drop below $60k in order to enter into that one aspect of one of the bet proposals that he had suggested as potentially reasonable.. .. even though surely any of us is reasonable to make our own proclamations, but I still consider if there ends up being additional conditions (and a seemingly kind of waffling on the bet terms), then there ends up being some backing off of previous assertions... and don't get me wrong, I am not even necessarily suggesting that dragonvslinux was acting in bad faith, but I am likely asserting that he had made some statements that were likely stronger than what he was willing to stand behind, even in a kind of funzies bet.. and not that I even like getting into bet situations.. but I will do it, even if I might be bordering on 50/50 with the bet if I believe the terms of the bet to be sufficiently interesting and/or fun... and largely in lines with what I believe will happen, even if I might ONLY be barely 50/50 on such projected/anticipated happenings.

Sure some of the downsides of any of these bets could be that it could take a bit of time before we might see them clearly resolve in favor of one side or the other, depending on how such bet terms are framed.


I am not sure if that one ever became bettable - even though I have been gravitating towards hybridizing such range to both include the ideas of no man's land  and also the idea of don't wake me up zone.. and surely no man's land largely should mean that there should not be a whole hell of a lot of stickiness in this $55k to $82k range and the inclination should be towards UPpity (even though surely it seems that we are getting quite a bit more stickiness in this range than I had been thinking to be so likely to be playing out.. and surely who knows exactly the explanation for such seemingly ongoing stickiness - including that it could well end up being that we got into this range a bit prematurely..

yet the evidence of "premature entrance into no man's land" also is not particularly strong given the total context of what seems to be happening with ongoing BTC price pressures and even including recent historical context of what happened to BTC in the past 2-3 years.. yet I am not even going to claim to know how to characterize these matters because sometimes the various theories are not even completely clear while we are in the midst of them.. even though surely any of us are still going to have our inclinations and even potentially be putting extra value in one direction or another in light of our own perceptions of what we believe the inclinations to be - even if it is so vague as "I don't know what the fuck is going on but that there is no reason to not believe that BTC's price direction is going to continue to be UPpity,:" and that might well be enough of a framework to keep accumulating and/or stay invested.

As far as my mixing of don't wake me up zone into no man's land, I am not sure why I am wanting to do that - it just seems that is how our current BTC price dynamics are seeming to want to play out.. at least for the time being.


I am not that excited about entering into bets either but to me, it seems that sometimes members (even seemingly serious ones who tend to back up what they are saying) start to assert claims that seem to border upon what seems to be outrageousness. .or at least contrary to what seems likely.. and kind of starting to get into fringe rather than something that anyone with knowledge of the space should reasonably be considering to have high chances of happening.. so then gosh, we get into what might be bettable territory... ..

Even with you, sometimes I have seen that sometimes you make claims that I don't agree with, yet  you tend to make them in such an ambiguous way that it would not be easy to proclaim them as strong enough claims to be bettable, even if I might not completely agree with your assessment..


You are so original.














NOT!!!!!!!!!!


 


Link or it didn't happen.


Look at Loyce...   

Exacerbating the "no link" issue.....  

and combobulating the matter with a language barrier.  (Note: funny that Bawb's name comes up here too.. I am sure that he has some way of being blamable with this)

 

Just to attempt to clarify.  I surely would not be proclaiming $55k as any kind of bottom, yet I was trying to say that I am not going to get excited (or believe that anything potentially meaningful was happening) until we start to get into the $55k-ish territories.. so yeah, it is my version of "no man's" land and "don't wake me up" zone sharing a similar kind of space (overlapping, perhaps?).

I would be even more shocked by mid-$40k numbers, yet they would not be unheard of, including that we know that dee cornz surely gets pleasures out of flushing out as many weak hands as possible, yet we still have to get through a few support levels before even considering those kinds of matters..

I still am willing to enter a bet of $80k before $40k or alternatively that bitcoin will not break below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025.. .. which surely might not even be a 50/50 bet, but I would be willing to bet on either one of those BTC price performance expectation propositions, merely for funzies.


yes, but what I am saying is that I don't care about such distinction, and for now, I am not going to go any further on the point, even though you nearly tempted me into doing so.. but for now, I am going to hold back and leave it there.

Regarding "sky is falling," as I type this post, we are a little less than 7.5k - perhaps almost $8k from the ATH.. and latest local top from almost 3 weeks ago (13th/14th).. I am having a hard time getting worked-up yet.. and also we had a lower bottom of $60.76k about two weeks ago.. .. so $66k so far, and sure it happened fast but.. still ?  how many weak hands are going to get shook?

Let's see.


What bet?

Dip?

What dip?

Asking for an ant.


Edit:  Or maybe you are a time traveller, and you are referring to the current correction that we are experiencing.. but I still am not going to get excited until maybe we get down to $55k-ish.. otherwise this is normal dumpenings.. and surely going pretty fast right now, as I type.. testing $66k - and $3k-ish dump in 15 minutes.


For me, whether you call it merit beggars or I call it shitposters.. I pretty much consider that merit beggars = shitposters


From my perspective, there's no real, material and/or meaningful difference between the two labels.

You have ONLY been registered on the forum for a bit more than a month and you already have enough BTC to be fucking around in terms of trying to figure out if BTC is in a bull market or a bear market?

How have you gotten to be so smart so quickly?

Some (supposedly smart) traders (gamblers/influencers) have been letting you know the tricks (secrets) of how to play BTC upcoming price waves?


You might be correct in everything that you are asserting Jewan420, yet you seem to be referring to trading rather than to investing.


My adjustments were based on other points - including that I though that you were being a bit ridiculous with your numbers... but hey, you can do what you like.  I would not want it to appear that I agree with either your numbers of your approach that seems to be inclined to try to play the upcoming wave to your advantage which may or may not end up working out for you.


Which two concepts?

I mentioned front-loading.

And also

I mentioned whimpy versus aggressive.

I doubt that I need to explain any of those concepts any further than I already did.  What is to explain?  Maybe you can explain the extent of your understanding about how these kinds of concepts might apply to investing in bitcoin and then we may well end up having something to work with.


You are not at the stage of withdrawing, are you?  In this thread we talk about accumulation.  That withdrawal strategy tool presumes that either you have overly accumulated or that you might have a budget of BTC in which you are placing within the tool, such as if you set up a business or a trust fund with a certain quantity of BTC and they could use the tool as a budgeting/spending guide.

I did not consider myself to be debating, since guys can do whatever they like in terms of trying to figure out if BTC prices are toppy or if they believe that it is to their advantage to sell large parts of their BTC.

As you seem to suggest, there are a large number of bitcoin HODLers who are not planning to sell their BTC at prices less than $120k, yet I have my doubts that BTC prices go down because a bunch of normies starting to sell their BTC in any kind of organic way.. . .

Largely what seems to happen is that the price goes up and continues to go up until there is no longer enough buying support to keep it going up, so yeah there will be various points along the way that some longer term BTC holders are going to sell their coins.. Some BTC HODLers have various sell points pre-planned and others may well just go with the flow, so I doubt it is fair to try to overly suggest any kind of specific buyer and/or seller - even though overall the BTC price does end up moving around based on the aggregate of all kinds of buys and sells and even sometimes the extent to which coins are really being traded or if there might be some fake sales of coins, which seems to have had been the case with FTX not having bitcoin that they claim to have, but the bitcoin were still circulating in the economy in various ways so FTX was not the ONLY entity that did not have the number of coins it claimed to have.. yet still who knows if that non-existence of coins ended up contributing to BTC price dynamics in 2021 and 2022. and perhaps still having some fall out effects into 2023 and 2024... but still just one of many factors.