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oil back solidly sub 100 @ 97.1.
no economic activity here.
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ready for the next spurt?  |
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Stocks making a run to the downside...
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i love this tool. it's a Dynamic Yield Curve for UST's. it's quite helpful in seeing the interaction of UST's and the stock mkt. note that in 2007, we got a yield curve inversion which historically has been pretty reliable in forecasting a recession. nowadays, with the short end pinned at essentially 0, we can't even get an inversion as a warning of bad things to come. just another indication of how badly the Fed has distorted the mkt: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php |
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The Fed cut the monthly pace of bond-buying by $10 billion for a sixth time on July 30. That brought purchases to $25 billion, from $85 billion last year, on pace to end the program by October.
Liquidity is disappearing from markets. They don't like it.
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imo, as long as we stay above support @ 554, we're good. unlike other markets which have broken their support levels:  |
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miners breaking down below support confirming silver BD which lead in this case:   |
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USD making a strong breakout move above resistance. this is a wake up call for anyone in risk assets. is Bitcoin a risk asset? maybe, but i don't think so.  |
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silver dipping hard; $19.92
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in the last crisis, both USD and UST rallied, somewhat inexplicably.
in the next crisis, which is bound to come and may be here right now, i doubt the same will happen. there's been too much degradation and moral hazard on the part of the US. probably only one will rally, if we have to have one at all. if i had to choose which would rally, it would be the USD as opposed to UST's. why? b/c UST's have been in a huge 34 yr rally as reflected in falling interest rates due to either real deflation (controversial) or manipulation. it's time for them to roll and could be a shorting opportunity altho you'd have to be real careful about that.
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Dow clearly in a short term sell signal. Breaking down thru support:  |
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if you feel bad about Bitcoin, feel worse about silver and gold. at least Bitcoin is still above support:  |
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everything down except USD.
silver dipped below $20; again.
what will happen to BTC if we go into a recession or get another stock mkt crash? i say UP until proven otherwise. it should act as a safe haven. altho i could be wrong.
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i wish i was in this stock mkt:  |
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