Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

in the last crisis, both USD and UST rallied, somewhat inexplicably.

in the next crisis, which is bound to come and may be here right now, i doubt the same will happen.  there's been too much degradation and moral hazard on the part of the US.  probably only one will rally, if we have to have one at all.  if i had to choose which would rally, it would be the USD as opposed to UST's.  why?  b/c UST's have been in a huge 34 yr rally as reflected in falling interest rates due to either real deflation (controversial) or manipulation.  it's time for them to roll and could be a shorting opportunity altho you'd have to be real careful about that.

[1714170591]

1714170591

[1714170591]

1714170591

[1714170591]

1714170591

[cypherdoc]

silver dipping hard; $19.92

[cypherdoc]

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/496661306729328640

[cypherdoc]

USD making a strong breakout move above resistance.

this is a wake up call for anyone in risk assets.  is Bitcoin a risk asset?  maybe, but i don't think so.

[manfred]

Warren Buffett hords 50 billion cash waiting for bubble to burst
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/08/04/warren-buffett-sits-on-50-billion-cash-hoard-waiting-for-bubbles-to-pop/

[cypherdoc]

miners breaking down below support confirming silver BD which lead in this case:

[cypherdoc]

imo, as long as we stay above support @ 554, we're good.

unlike other markets which have broken their support levels:

[cypherdoc]

The Fed cut the monthly pace of bond-buying by $10 billion for a sixth time on July 30. That brought purchases to $25 billion, from $85 billion last year, on pace to end the program by October.

Liquidity is disappearing from markets.  They don't like it.

[cypherdoc]

i love this tool.

it's a Dynamic Yield Curve for UST's.  it's quite helpful in seeing the interaction of UST's and the stock mkt.  note that in 2007, we got a yield curve inversion which historically has been pretty reliable in forecasting a recession.  nowadays, with the short end pinned at essentially 0, we can't even get an inversion as a warning of bad things to come.  just another indication of how badly the Fed has distorted the mkt:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

[HeliKopterBen]

The Fed cut the monthly pace of bond-buying by $10 billion for a sixth time on July 30. That brought purchases to $25 billion, from $85 billion last year, on pace to end the program by October.

Liquidity is disappearing from markets.  They don't like it.

Now they can only buy 3.25 bitcoin markets per month.

[cypherdoc]

Stocks making a run to the downside...

[cypherdoc]

ready for the next spurt?

[cypherdoc]

nice stock dump...

[cypherdoc]

Rodriguez said that the company logged one of its most active trading days on 31st July, the day after Argentina defaulted on its debt. That day saw trading activity hit a month-long high, he said.

http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-bitcoin-exchange-loses-bank-accounts/

[cypherdoc]

oil back solidly sub 100 @ 97.1.

no economic activity here.

[cypherdoc]

wow

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/

[justusranvier]

wow

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.

[Chalkbot]

wow

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.

I believe there is a strong likelihood that's true, but how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?

[justusranvier]

how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?

Because they can't. It would create a logical paradox.

The existence of the prediction inevitably changes the basis of the prediction.

[cypherdoc]

wow

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.

i tend to believe the post.

i also think you're correct about acceleration based on the projected timeframe btwn 2021 & 2026.  but that is consistent with what many of us have given as our own time horizon for the Bitcoin phenomenon.  my outer bound has always been 2020.