hahahaha

I don't have anything against you.

I think that you might well be a fine chap, and from time to time, I even agree with some points that you make in various topics... .. .

It is just that it seem that you might not understand dee cornz very well, which contributes to my feeling some needs to respond to some of the points that you make - which are meant to be substantive disagreements that I generally tend to back up with either argument and/or facts, even though you have been registered on this forum for 9 years and 7 days..  Happy belated anniversary..

What you are saying is strange.. and even somewhat incoherent..

Yet one point that I would like to make is that even if you believe that a lot of people know what bitcoin is because they heard it's name, it is barely in its earliest stages of actual adoption, even though some rich people are front-loading their stacking and/or hoarding of it... so yeah, the front loading is going to cause the price to go up, yet mainstream will still have to come into it, sooner or later, and the BTC price is not going to necessarily correct down in order to accommodate their wishes to buy cheaper corn.

So good luck with any of those frameworks that consider bitcoin to either be a mature asset or to cap its growth at anything less than 20x to 50x before it might start to dampen in some of it volatility and violence during this period of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind that you seem to be downplaying, even if there might be periods in which you feel that you are right because of correlation to stocks or short period ups and downs along the way, while you are continuing to miss some of the BIGGER picture ideas..around the value proposition of my lil precious.


You don't have to worry about if you are right or you are wrong, since you are likely NOT selling anyhow.. or you are not trying to time the top, so who cares.  Sure, you might shave some off along the way, in the even that you believe that you have enough or more than enough.. but that still does not mean that you have to be correct about scenarios that might happen, but do not end up playing out..

And surely ultra bullish (at $800k plus) is likely more than 3.2x your original number and at least 2x your amended number..  

so then what problem should you have describing ultra bullish that does not end up happening.. part of the reason that it is "ultra bullish" is that it has lower odds of happening, and yeah, base case scenarios are in the ball park of $240k to $540k.. .. but even base case scenarios are not guaranteed to happen, so maybe they will or maybe they won't yet part of the reason that we might go through some of these scenarios is to help us to prepare financially and psychologically for both the more likely and the less likely scenario and maybe in your finances, you are even more conservative.. but yeah it would kind of suck for you to spend 4-6-ish years or maybe even more stacking up BTC and then blowing your whole wadd at $258k, and then if the BTC price continues to go up and you have little to no corns.. and at the same time, it may not end up correcting back down to either your sell price or to a price that you consider that it is "supposed to" correct down to in order that you would feel comfortable buying back to the extent that you are even psychologically fit by the time we get to that point.


Nope.. institutions have not started buying BTC yet... it takes a while to get institutions into the picture.. they are way less mobile than retail, even though the profile of retail can be quite varied in terms of kind and size of investor.. maybe consider it to be a kind of retail demand that was not captured by the buying BTC directly market.. a kind of retail that loves the ETF wrapper, but detests the idea of directly holding BTC or buying BTC through exchanges that may or may not be as trustworthy as their broker.


Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..

Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.

I am glad that you got yourself covered either way.

 


It is also funny that you have been into bitcoin (or at least a member of this forum) for so long, and you still be struggling with understanding some of bitcoin basics.

But, hey whatever, you do you.  We all have our rights to our opinions, and hopefully you do not end up selling too much too soon in such process of characterizing bitcoin as merely a 2x from  current prices.


Surely I appreciate $120k to $180k as the range for an intermediate stop that is likely pending and/or imminent in the coming 1 to 9 months.. and surely having good chances of playing out this calendar year..

And likely another likelihood is that BTC prices are likely going to be higher in 2025 (at least the top price, maybe not the average) than they get to in 2024... So yeah, who needs to get further into specifics.. I surely don't need to because I hardly even claim to know specifics, and surely I wil be more than willing to change my tunes if some kind of dynamics kicks in that breaks some of the underlying presumptions in regards to BTC's demand drying up.. .. no reason to consider such scenario, even though surely there are are some non-zero possibilities that some kind of drying up demand could end up laying out.. maybe less than 10% odds during 2024/2025, which is part of the reason to attempt to prepare for either price direction, even though many of us likely realize directionally, it does not hurt to remained prepared for up, don't sell too much too soon and don't fail to continue to buy if you don't have enough BTC (especially low coiners and no coiners, sometimes referred to as precoiners)


I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... .. and then maybe part of the frustrations that sometimes come .. which then if you have some sales in order to cover tax bills, then the sales from this year end up coming up for next year's taxes.... so an almost never ending loop... and sometimes could inspire ways to figure out how to better defer and/or offset such taxes with expenses or some other means that might be practically applicable..


Yeah, but you need your 20 BTC to get up to $10 million each, no?  how many cycles are we going to need to wait for that?  maybe the next cycle? or the one after that?

Oh gawd...    You seem to want to latch onto almost anything in order to argue your various interpretations of either potential bad actor status to Saylor and/or MSTR, or to figure out some kind of way in which this whole thing is going to blow up on him...

And your various theories are not even that great and seem to be somewhat selective spins rather than being in the ballpark of objective.

You seem to ignore or downplay the fact that Saylor already announced that he would be selling shares  (exercising options that were due to expire) within this quarter and perhaps dragging out longer, and you seem to not even understand some of the outrageously fortunate circumstances that Saylor is in since his share price is going up at outrageous rates and he can both use that fact to leverage and to buy more BTC and he can simultaneously sell shares that he did not even have (except that they were options to be able to have them) while buying BTC for his personal stash through those proceeds.

Any of those entities shorting may well end up getting reckt as fuck since they are trying to act as if the leverage on BTC is a bad play when BTC remains in its current location of noman's land (which is the price range that is within about 20% of the previous ATH, which is around $55k to $82k), while at the same time opening new kinds of buyers and buy channels that are still in their earliest stages of ongoingly putting UPpity price pressures on BTC.. so if you consider that either BTC or MSTR is top-ish in these circumstances, then you seem to be living in a dream.. and yeah, Saylor is going to attract a lot of haters. and no coiners/low coiners, bitcoin naysayers blah blah blah who are wanting (wishing) to see his failure (and bitcoin's) failure, but they (just like you) are going to have to keep on crying harder...

Yeah, sure anything can happen.. but it just seems that facts and UPpity BTC market dynamics are way the fuck against betting against either BTC and/or MSTR and/or the strategy that Saylor is employing.. and yeah, maybe charges could be trumped up since traditional finance folks and governments are in a desperate as fuck state of affairs regarding their own stake in several aspects of the perilous dollar/fiat debt system that seems to be crashing in a lot of places.. while ongoing rescuing attempts are made, that include ongoing lying to people.. which yeah, people (including you) may well believe some of the misinformation that's being fed and/or failing/refusing to recognize the power of the cornz and that Saylor/MSTR is working within acceptable loopholes in the system.. and if anyone is going to go after him, they are likely going to have to jump through a bunch of baloney loopholes, just like you seem to be cheering on.. with your ongoing anticipation of some kind of desire to say "I told you so" .. which instead you should be attempting to be more humble in regards to really attempting to figure out what is really going on with the traditional debt laden financial system and the way that MSTR, Saylor and BTC's role in that is being played... including that the spot ETF approvals and the various actual marketing of BTC by BIG ASS financial players..


You seem to be going along with various narratives too much tiCeR.. Saylor is transparent, overly transparent and even a BIG mouth about a lot of what he is doing, and yeah, maybe it will end up backfiring for him, even though he is working within the system and seems to have a lot of great counsel and even his own creativity contributing to his and MSTR's approach to this.


Even though The Sceptical Chymist mentioned that knowing about shorters or the potential for shorters to potentially be "insider information," that sounds like a looney as fuck theory.  There may well be a need to look up the meaning of insider information that pertains to operations within the company rather than what the market may or may not be potentially going to be doing.


That is part of the problem, because shorts will especially work if there is some flaws in the fundamental value, and so surely shorting MSTR has a lot of parallels to shorting BTC, which seems like nearly a retarded move. .and good luck to the shorters, they are most likely going to need luck in order to be successful.. depending on how far they are trying to go with it..

Surely there could be some short term shorting that might end up being successful to get in and out of the trade, but yeah, these matters can surely end up blowing up on even purportedly smart shorters who might not completely realize the dynamite that they are playing with.. .. all fun and games until someone's eyes get poked out.


Even though we cannot really know who is who, OgNasty ends up being correct in terms of his framing that there are a large number of folks who are choosing to buy and/or to continue to hold MSTR shares rather than BTC, and yeah it adds extra risk in terms of considering whether MSTR will continue to outperform purely holding BTC if we are merely talking about playing the price exposure to BTC, yet at the same time, there are some players who may well be way more ready, willing and able to buy something like a share rather than buying BTC directly.. and so even if they are not exactly willing and/or capable of holding BTC directly, it would still not be incorrect for OgNasty to characterize them as folks who are choosing to hold MSTR over BTC and also to characterize Saylor as someone who is selling MSTR and buying BTC with it.... and so even if OgNasty might be wanting to point out hypocrisy and contradictory behaviors, the situation does not seem to be even close to as contradictory as he seems to be describing it to be, especially since Saylor is already way overly exposed to MSTR shares and his selling of options is not really materially or significantly diluting Saylor's control over the company, and the company is even better off with Saylor buying so many fucking BTC, whether it is for his personal stash or the other ways that he is employing MSTR's various leveraging vehicles to accomplish similar kinds of ongoing buying of BTC.


And of course it is a good play off of the lyrics or the famous "The Gambler" song by Kenny Rogers, too.


Of course it is true that Saylor is selling MSTR shares and he is not buying them and he claims to be largely buying personal BTC with the MSTR shares that he is selling... even though we cannot completely verify that he is actually buying personal BTC.. but there is no real reason to doubt him, either even though it is likely optional regarding what he actually spends the money on once he sells the MSTR shares.. whether that is actually BTC or hookers, lambos and blow.. and perhaps additional yachts .. but I speculate that there might be some feelings of diminishing returns in terms of how many hookers, lambo, blow or yachts a 59 year old single guy is going to want to have.


Of course, he is allowed to.  You need to come up with some pretty good legal theory or just make shit up if you are wanting to argue that he is not allowed to do what he is doing, which surely there are a lot of MSTR/Saylor/BTC haters who are jumping through such hoops to engage in their own fantasies about what is permissible or not


Where do you get those speculations regarding potentiality?  Surely, I am not going to fuck around with buying MSTR, but the mere fact that MSTR's main business seems to be being dwarft by BTC purchases and even that some folks (including in these here parts) had already speculated in late 2023-ish to sell MSTR and buy GBTC and even had decently good reasons to execute that trade, yet that surely would not have had been a great trade, even though GBTC's discount window did end up getting closed into being quite close to the underlying NAV.


There might not be a reason for a retail investor, except for wanting to play a bit of potential leverage, which seems not very necessary, even though there surely are still a lot of retail who are buying MSTR rather than BTC (and maybe many of them hold both).. . and yeah, there are some institutions and other kinds of buyers of MSTR who are not able to hold BTC directly with the kind of account that they are dealing with, whether it is some kind of a retirement account or other restrictions and/or difficulties to hold BTC directly, and some of them might even consider MSTR to serve as an even more efficient and forward-looking ETF than the actual ETFs because of the kinds of leveraging that Saylor does and the fact that Saylor seems to be such a BTC lunatic... some of the investors into MSTR are going to love that angle of Saylor and how he is deploying MSTR's capital in such an aggressive way.

ONLY you.


Yesterday, I posted on the topic of Sam and the strangeness of the whole situation in another thread, which I think bears reposting here.



For sure, perceptions of cheapness may also depend upon whether you have any BTC at all and/or if you might be a low coiner, and so sure, guys who have been accumulating BTC for a while have a certain amount of luxury to sit back and suggest that BTC is no longer cheap, yet guys who are either just coming to BTC or maybe they had been less aggressive than they should have been or could have been at earlier dates, then they might be feeling that they need to catch up and they cannot turn back the clock, so they are somewhat forced into a perception of relative "cheapness."

Many of us likely realize that it can take a whole fucking long time to build up an investment portfolio, even if we might consider ourselves to be attempting to reach an appropriate amount of aggressiveness balancing in regards to our BTC accumulation, but then maybe later down the road, we end up  realizing that we were way too whimpy in our BTC accumulation approach, and it is not like we can go back in time, so we therefore have to reframe our perceptions of BTC as cheap even though it is currently breaking through previous ATHs and doing such breaking throughs in a way that seems to be even more bullish than a lot of folks had expected.. but then in retrospect, we can also figure out various legitimate reason for why the seemingly earlier than expected break out (and touching upon new ATHs and price exploration) is happening right now.

Some folks also become enlightened at a later date, and sure maybe such enlightenment is not going to happen with gold bugs like Peter Schiff or some other seemingly smart people who we might consider should come to recognize and appreciate the bullish case for bitcoin, yet some of those guys might end up being forced to come around or otherwise have fun staying poor or otherwise just end up being too much on the losing side of the greatest wealth transfer known to man.. which surely may cause some of them to consider to wrongly continue to believe that they are too late, rather than recognizing and appreciating the value of getting into bitcoin now (even though they feel late) rather than continuing to wait for price corrections that may well end up not happening.

Ego and pride problems too.. and sometimes it is better to just bite the bullet and get the fuck started rather than staying a stubborn person who continues to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately pee pare his lil selfie for UPpity.


I don't know it if it is the same.. Surely some of us got lucky to be in the right spot (and the right mental framework) at the right time, so a certain level of comfort can later come from earlier employments of front-loading and/or aggressiveness, so some of that could be a bit of luck, including even just having some disposable income to be able to put into it.. which surely can be a challenge for a lot of folks, and I think that there are plenty of recent studies that show that even folks with decently large sizes of disposable income, around half of them do not have shit when it comes to savings and/or investments, and maybe they cannot be completely to blame for such lack of preparedness... so sometimes there can be a certain amount of luck that comes from ending up being a person who both figures out that some level of savings and/or investment is a good thing to work towards and then on the other part they also figure out that bitcoin is a good place to put some of that investment, even if they might feel skeptical about bitcoin, so then it can be understandable that sometimes investors/savers (that have gotten over the first hump of actually saving/investing) will shy away from some kinds of investments that they don't consider to be sufficiently safe places to put even a small amount of their investment/savings allocation (which yeah it could take some looking into the bitcoin matter before starting to build a sufficient amount of confidence to invest in it).


Sure we are individuals, yet there are a lot of schools of thought that try to explain human behavior, even if they might be claiming to do other things... maybe even the bitcoin school of hard knocks attempts to explain human behavior by the incentives that are structured at various points within it.. and the balances that had been struck (and perhaps amended from time to time) through its code.


Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...

yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.

Your repetition of such bearish numbers is causing me depression.




#justsaying


I suspect that you had meant to say "pee pared?"


I will give my opinion, though I am not exactly attached to any of it.. so if a guy gives some better name or explanation, then that would be fine since any of those names seem o.k...

So whatever the name, there could be an explanation that start time for the recap is 01:00 UTC, and end time is 00:00 UTC.. Just to make it clear.. regarding the start and end time... and even though based on nomenclature, it would seem logical that start time should be 00:00 rather than 01:00.. yet I can see that reasonably, you consider 00:00 to be like 24:00 rather than 00:00.. which is a reasonable interpretation.. 

So yeah the timeline can take a really long time, and three full cycles is not unrealistic, if we consider that you are accumulating BTC the whole times and you may have started out without a lot of resources, and perhaps your discretionary income is not very high... so it may well take way more than 3 cycles, since in traditional investing it can take 30-40 years to really make progress, and if you are able to cut that in half to be able to make a lot of progress in 15-20 years, then you are likely way ahead of where you would have had been with a strategy that did not include bitcoin.

I am not sure what you mean by bitcoin defi, except if you are suggesting that guys need to be careful about any of that stuff, then I will agree with you.  There are needs for normies to be striving for simple and straight - forward strategies to accumulate bitcoin without any bells and whistles and from time to time to move their accumulation levels to private wallets that they maintain in a secure way... if there comes some time that guys might want to fuck around (trade or play with various yield and/or leveraged products), then if they could at least limit their exposure to such likely gambling behaviors to 10% of their bitcoin holdings, then at least they will be attempting to satisfy their curiosities within some moderation that is less likely to cause them to be recking their lil selfies.


If you believe that a smart person should spend 10 to 20 years investing in bitcoin and then sell it off in order to get into fiat, then you must either be retarded and/or you are failing to recognize and/or appreciate the long term HODL value of bitcoin - especially once you have spent enough time accumulating it and becoming empowered by the strength of its value storing/appreciating capabilities - even if there might continue to be decently large amounts of BTC price volatility, anyone who believes that s/he is planning to get out of bitcoin is likely not even investing into bitcoin, and is failing/refusing to actually understand bitcoins value proposition and/or the likely ongoing strength of its investment thesis.


Again.. you can do whatever the fuck you like, but you don't really seem to understand bitcoin very well if you think that it would be prudent, smart and/or practical to plan to sell large amounts of your BTC whether it is for consumption purposes or for investing into other kinds of assets/currencies.

Of course, there are ways to maintain and to manage your BTC holdings that could involve some selling, but planning to sell large amounts of it seem to be failing/refusing to appreciate what bitcoin is.


There is nothing wrong with starting a business, but there still might not be good reasons to sell large portions of your BTC in order to accomplish such.. .. but hey, yeah to each his own.. .. You are free to employ your seemingly short-sighted plan to potentially go from better to worse all that you like.  None of us can necessarily persuade you that you might be employing your capital badly if you consider selling all your BTC for such a purpose to be a wise employment of capital.

By the way, don't get me wrong..  There surely can be a large number of needs that normies have to invest into themselves, their skills and/or their education in order that they can move up the income ladder and also to increase their earnings whether that is from having their own business or working for someone else who is willing to pay more when you have gained and attained certain skills, education and experiences.


There is some truth in what you are saying, even though I still get the sense that you are a bit naive in terms of how you plan to deploy any advantages that you may well end up getting by having your BTC in profits, yet in one sense, you are surely correct that a guy who is more aggressive in his accumulation of BTC may well end up in a way better place than a person who is more conservative and even some guys might be accumulating bitcoin with very little commitment.. so in some sense the more aggressive that you can be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, including potentially having decently large portions of your income going into bitcoin and also cutting down on your expenses a lot in order to accomplish such aggressive levels of BTC investment, then you may well end up having much better performance and being able to cut down the number of cycles that you would need to be in bitcoin in order to achieve similar or better results than a guy who is way more whimpy and reserved in his bitcoin investment..

so yeah think about a guy who might be able to invest more than 25% of his income into BTC as compared with a guy who is ONLY investing around 1% of his income into BTC. .and the guys might also be in comparable income levels but the guy investing more than 25% would have decent chances of having 25x greater profits as compared to the whimpier guy (assuming that the whimpier guy is not investing into other things that might off-set the results..

Of course some balance may well be needed in life too.. so each person has to figure out various kinds of balances in regards to his health or building family and relations, so sometimes, a guy could damage himself if he is being overly aggressive in his investment into BTC if he otherwise sacrifices some areas of his life and/or well-being that should be maintained and/or built.. which sometimes also costs money to accomplish those other balancing things.

Anyhow and in any event, a guy still may well end up achieving a lot of value and price appreciation in his BTC and wealth, and so then he has more options to carry out other goals.. but that still may well need to be balanced in terms of how much BTC to cash out of or even varying ways to adjust the BTC holding strategy based on potential desires to diversify out into other investments and/or consumption after achieving greater wealth because of earlier aggressiveness in his BTC investment and approach to BTC accumulation.


You may be correct in your various points and/or your conclusions FinePoine0.. but I would be careful in terms of expressing these kinds of matters in terms of such black and whiteness, especially since it is surely possible to lose money in bitcoin, including that you could lose up to 100% of your bitcoin investment.


We are not talking about trading in this thread.. or even selling.. so you sound like a trader rather than being an investor.. which seems to not be what we are talking about in this thread.


That article is not bad in order to flesh out what is DCA and why and how to employ DCA - however, it seems to a bit incomplete in terms of getting into some of the nitty-gritty in regards to why weekly DCA might be preferred, but also reasons why a person might choose to alter the time period and choose a different time period.

It seems to me, that it would be good to establish weekly as a kind of default - best practices when it comes to bitcoin DCA investing, especially for the newbie.. .. yet of course, even a newbie may well need to figure out some other kind of interval in the event that his cashflow situation might be somewhat irregular and also if he is trying to figure out various aspects of his financial situation related to emergency funds, reserves and float.. and surely the idea of "financial situation" addresses some of this, but it is way too vague in order to really give us some ideas regarding how a guy realistically should be figuring out how to delve into either initially establishing his BTC position and/or getting into some kind of a 6 month plan that might be adjusted after the first 6 months or perhaps extended another 6 months if it seems to be working well in terms of balancing his getting to some kind of initial BTC stake and then continuing to work on BTC accumulation goals... that might be more difficult to put in place in the beginning but may well become smoother after the guy had spent a year or two investing, whether weekly or some other suitable interval between BTC purchases.


Why do you feel some kind of a need to try to be fair and balanced in terms of talking about buying and selling, when we are not talking about selling in this thread.. ..

The emphasis is in this thread is to figure out and to compare and contrast ways to accumulate BTC.. and selling is not part of the more basic BTC accumulating strategies... so fuck selling in terms of describing it as a basic strategy - absent if you have already reached your accumulation goals and have already overly accumulated BTC and have actually gotten past your buying and accumulation stage of your BTC journey, which is the topic and emphasis of this thread.


Yeah, but if you are new to bitcoin, then anytime is good to buy. .and so it might take a whole cycle before a BTC accumulator might start to get into extra strategizing around something like the 200WMA.. yet sure, sometimes, we might come to bitcoin and actually already see that BTC prices are at, near or below the 200-WMA and we might be able to recognize some extra motivation to become more aggressive in our BTC accumulation strategy than what we otherwise would have had been.


Yeah.. sorry about that.  Bitmover is working on it, and hoping to get it resolved soon... perhaps within the coming days..

Bitmover provided a status update in this post from yesterday.

Edit: Upon further reading of the posts of the thread, I see that bitmover already responded to address this matter..


Of course, it is better late than never in terms of your own decisions to become more active in regards to investing into bitcoin with DCA and even perhaps in a somewhat regularly aggressive kind of way, instead of what seems to be your inclinations to try to time you BTC buys, which may not really do you any favors until you get to a certain higher point of your BTC accumulation.

So yeah it would be difficult for any of us to really know if another person is being sufficiently aggressive enough in his BTC accumulation and/or if he is otherwise employing strategies that are sufficiently suitable and tailored to his own circumstances - as in the 9 factors that I had outlined in one of my earlier posts.

Many of us likely realize that many newbies to bitcoin and even guys who are in their earliest of stages of BTC accumulation will become overly greedy and/or overly risk taking because they believe that they are too late to accumulate bitcoin and they think that they need to make up for the time in which they had not been sufficiently and/or adequately stacking sats and/or when they might have been employing inferior techniques in regards to actually accumulating BTC.  So, from my perspective, if you are really getting into regularly stacking BTC (sats) and you have some sufficiently aggressive measures in place, then you are likely going to be quite a bit ahead of both normies who are economically similarly situated as you and also ahead of another version of yourself who had not decided to aggressively stack sats.

and yeah sometimes it can take 2-3 cycles or even more to really achieve a meaningful amount of bitcoin and/or wealth, and surely there are some disadvantages in regards to some of the BIGGER financial players coming on board and offering efficient on boarding avenues to a lot of folks, institutions and governments who would have otherwise not been ready, willing and/or able to buy BTC (referring to the ETFs), and so yeah, BTC's price is quite likely going to continue to be driven up due to these kinds of ongoing short-term price pressures.. which drives up the price for any newbies coming into bitcoin and might even cause some of the newbies to either not invest into bitcoin or to even sell bitcoin that they have because they wrongly consider themselves as either too late or they believe that they might be able to sell and to buy back more cheaply.. which surely are dumb and/or ill-informed kinds of perspectives in regards to appreciating bitcoin's current and ongoing value proposition.

So yeah, it is going to continue to take a lot of normies a long time to get into bitcoin and an overwhelming majority of them are going to end up having to buy bitcoin quite a bit down the road and at quite a bit higher prices than current prices.

Well, then that seems even less useful than what I had presumed it to potentially be - since it surely seems that we would need to peg the values to USD rather than not having them pegged (sure we could peg the value to something else, such as goods/services such as Hookers, Lambos and Blow, but you would have to find an API that has those kinds of goods and services).. ...

so yeah, we surely would not want to return to the earlier levels of BTC trade volumes because that would be just saying that BTC is going down in price and surely there is almost no way that exchanges are even close to holding as many BTC as they held in the past.. Even the 30k bearwhale example from late 2014.. would be impossible for any normal BTC holder to achieve... If any of us might recall (and you can probably google the topic) in late 2014, the Bitstamp bear whale, put up 30k BTC for sale at $300, and it took half a day or a day to eat through all of those BTC, so you can consider that he ended up selling $9 million worth of BTC for that price.. which now days would be only around 128.6 BTC if we use $70k as the current BTC price ..

Anyhow, so now that you describe what that volume means, it is seeming to be a kind of meaningless metric.. and I would be more interested in some kind of a metric that presents the total dollar value of the BTC traded and then ranks the results within the top 100, and you seem to already have enough information (data) to work out a formula which would be something like the total BTC traded for the day multiplied by the weighted average BTC price for the day, and then from that you would end up producing your own ranking list that would show the top 100 traded-volume days based on USD value of the BTC... which surely would be a more meaningful metric... rather than merely looking at some non-tethered measurement that is showing merely how many BTC were traded for any particular day... even some of the 1 BTC = 1 BTC nonsensical asserters should be able to recognize that just telling us how many BTC were traded does not really help anyone to peg the idea to contemporary values in the real world.

Here's a link to an interesting 1 and 20 minute link to a Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast that involve Jaime Garcia talking about some on the ground matters related to El Salvador's bitcoin adoption and also talking a bit about Mi Primer Bitcoin, about Bukele's re-election and some of Bukele's policies.. including talking about El Salvador as location that has to import a lot of its food and energy.. and having some challenges in terms of natural resources and challenges of being quite densily populated in the areas of the country that are habitable.


Oh?  Jaime Garcia makes an interesting point about whether other countries are going to follow El Salvador, and he suggests that a lot of other countries are likely not to follow El Salvador exactly because they will end up getting targeted if they were to say that they were doing that, so instead they are likely just to be a bit more passive in regards to their allowance of a variety of other currencies to be used in their countries, which will end up also allowing bitcoin.

That last column does seem potentially interesting, but I remain a wee confused about how to read what it is telling us or understand it.

So then is that data in the last column listed in millions of dollars or thousands of dollars?  I would suspect that it is millions of dollars, but I am still not sure if I understand it... or if you have a proper link to an explanation of it (maybe I missed an explanation link?)

Let me see if I can attempt to describe what I think that the data is showing, which is the days in which the BTC trade volume in terms of dollars was the highest (the highest 100 days within the last 1800 days), and the reason that none of the dates that last column are in 2024 and/or none of the dates match with any of the dates in our top 100 table is because those highest trade volume dates tend to be dumps rather than pumps..

which in my further speculation really seems to show how bear-twats, bitcoin naysayers, or just traders who try to trick retail come onto exchanges and dump fuck ton loads of coins in order to try to get retail (and/or weak hands) to follow - i.e. manipulate on the way down and are willing to spend a lot of BTC in order to attempt to accomplish their objectives to bring the BTC price down.. so it is not really organic. .. .but still it is a reality of the world in which we live and in some sense shows how BTC markets are currently behaving under our current dynamics of who has coins and how they might get their coins.

Hopefully, you are able to respond to my "attempt to describe" and there is no need for you to respond (unless you want to) to "my further speculation."

Thanks again DK for being so proactive in the presentation of this information.. which may well end up helping some of us to understand some of the data better and also to come up with some of our theories which may or may not end up being well-tethered to reality.  

Sure it is good to read and to find out things..

Yet with something like bitcoin it is also very good to act and to put systems in place and to learn more about it, especially since it is likely facilitating the largest wealth transfer known to mankind and it is still early days of adoption.. so in that regard, the sooner that you get started in bitcoin the better, even if you are ONLY able to accomplish $10 per week or some other modest amount that is within your capabilities while you are learning more about it. 

In other words the sooner the better, and don't be fucking around with shitcoins and./or diluting your bitcoin investment until, at least, you have some good ideas about bitcoin first, and even if you end up getting sucked into shitcoins because you cannot resist gambling and/or you cannot resist their convincing talking points, don't do any more than 10% investment into shitcoins as compared to the size of your bitcoin investment.


Mine has been the same.  There are certain failure limits, so over the 53 days that I have been doing pushups, in the beginning I was failing at 20, 25, and 30, and then after a week or two I started failing at 35 and 40, and lately I have been able to get up to 50 or 55, but then I slowed my pushups down a bit and I am back to failing at 40 and 45, which is o.k... especially since for the last month i have continued to achieve 5 sets per day.

There might be some day that I might be able to do a fast 60 .. or maybe a slow 55.. yet keeping track of them really does seem to be helpful, including that in the last couple of days, I started to time my pushup sets (and to write down the time for each one of the sets)... which is currently gravitating towards 1 second per pushup.


Good explanation and clarification.  There might be some guys who might be interested in such a cross-fit thread, but maybe not necessarily in the same kind of structure that you are doing cross fit.. since if you make it too narrow, then there might be variety of ways that guys do it.. and surely, at my age that would be too much for me, but sometimes there could be ways to vary it.. in terms of the kinds of exercise, and surely there are going to be some older folks who are not going to want to get into some competition based on time, but just proud of themselves to be able to get through a whole set.. or even part of a set that they set up for themselves for their own physical state.. just like here, guys can report their number of pushups and even describe how they are doing them, and hopefully they are largely competing against themselves instead of competing against other forum members.

Similar when we are stacking sats, no?  We might consider our own fuck you status or even consider how many sats that we are able to stack within our own financial means.. and surely the guys who got started stacking sats earlier would have some advantages, even though there are going to be some guys who are able to catch up by using their own discipline or merely to just end up improving their own situation, even if it might appear that they have a relatively small stack size compared to some other forum members.

Ok. great.   Hopefully one of them ends up working for us, and is satisfactory...

Personally, I don't believe in selling on the way down, .. so from my point of view there has to be some attempts to commit to selling on the way up at various points, even if the BTC price might be going up further .. and it seems quite possible for anyone who has been accumulating and/or holding BTC for a decent point of time to figure out either 1) various places to cash out a little bit on the way up or 2) cash out some on a regular basis no matter what the price or 3) cash out merely at points that you need some, which also likely is not very sensitive what the price..

yet of course, if we have enough BTC and/or more than enough BTC we could still modify our behaviors a bit in terms of figuring out when the BTC price is at relatively low points of being within 25% or closer to the 200-WMA or maybe on the other side of matters when the BTC price is several multiples higher than the 200-WMA... . and yeah, right now we are ONLY around 2x higher than the 200-WMA and we are also passing through no man's land (or don't wake me up zone) and surely anyone who is nervous should just sell a bit of BTC even if this seems like a pretty fucking dumb area to be selling any BTC.. but hey, guys can do what they like... .

I also don't think guys should be getting worried about if they might end up holding for 2-3 years or longer to get back to current prices, and sure anything can happen, but if they cannot hold and/or keep buying BTC for the next 2-3 years if the BTC price were to drop, then they might already be overexposed and needing to shave off some corns at various points along the way, even if these are likely price points that are going to end up in a lot of regrets for guys selling way too many coins too early.. but shaving off a few here and there, should not be a problem for any guy who is already overly allocated or has been in bitcoin for quite a while, even if we might end up doing another 10x or more from here in the coming 6-18 months.

By the way, in my own personal situation, I have been selling on the way up since $250-ish.. so I have no problem to continue to sell if it goes up or just start buying if it goes down, and so I have outstanding buy orders that go down to $20k-ish.. but if there were some reason that I need some worldly goods and/or services and I feel that I don't have enough fiat, I don't have any problem shaving more off here or at any price point, even if we might dip some more so I am not necessarily selling in regards to the price if there were some event that motivated me to shave off some coins which for sure could happen at any time.. .. yet at the same time, just continuing to shave off some from here to $700k or whatever the high point ends up being is kind of already tentatively planned out, even though my current sell orders ONLY go up to around $150k.. but if we get into the mid $80ks or higher, I might need to add some additional sell orders.. since I hate to NOT have sell orders at less than 2x the current price..

I also hate to have too many encumbrances of having too many orders to maintain, in either price direction, so sometimes there can be some value in culling some of the current existing orders and increasing the spreads for the ones on the way down.. and on the way up, I have already pretty much had them established since early 2021.. even though there have been a few tweaks here an there. and also sometimes exchanges will cancel or lose all of the outstanding orders, so they have to be set up again after that happens, which might be an opportunity to rethink them (and/or tweak them) a wee bit to make them more logical and/or comfortable...


So does  this mean that in the past few days, you started to time the ChartBuddy recap to run from midnight UTC until the following midnight?

That seems good, so that we would know that the first ones in the run would be early in the day and the last ones in the run would be at the end of the day, in terms of UTC.. Maybe you could add some kind of a description of that, so that it is easier to understand how it runs?

I personally have been tending to look more at the recaps rather than the actual ChartBuddys, since that provides a lot of juxtaposition of each of the hourly reports and if one or more of them stand out, then that could motivate going back and looking at the one or two that stand out.

Yes. .I noticed that I was getting spinning beachballs, and I was hoping that it was merely a temporary glitch.. and maybe there is a certain rotation that happens with the data sources from time to time... and too bad about these kinds of set backs when the data was showing a lot of informative dynamics that so far are not very capturable in other locations.

Fuck crypto currencies.. we are neither talking about them in this thread and even if we were, they are not an investment in which DCA makes sense for the long term.. so it tends to be quite misleading to talk about DCAing into shitcoins... even if there might be some short-term ways to carry out DCA.. but we are also not talking about short term practices in this thread, either.

Part of the appeal of DCA is to have some confidence to employ it over the long term. even though surely anyone is free to abandon their investment at any time and then profit in dollars and likely end up undermining their accumulation of BTC if they cannot figure out some meaningful way to stay focused on accumulating BTC, which is part of what DCA helps to accomplish.. the establishing of a position over time and to continue to build such position and to stay in a mindset of continuous and ongoing BTC accumulation.. which likely is going to serve the person better than trying to monkey around with trading and/or even changing his accumulation amounts based on concerns of short-term BTC price directions.

So yeah, the longer that anyone DCAs into BTC, the amount of BTC can more and more begin to be considered as long term savings, even if there may well be some points that some of the savings might start to get dipped into after there has been a sufficient amount of time of building it and even allowing it to appreciate in value, to the extent that it has good chances of continuing to appreciate in value just as it has done historically, and there is no real information to suggest that BTC is going to discontinue appreciating in value, especially when viewed in longer term time frames.

Well one thing is going to supra $80k-ish, but then another thing would be whether we were to not retrace it, which seem to be your framing of the matter. 

That surely seems lower than 10 to 1 odds.. but you could be in the ballpark.. but I am thinking.. maybe 20 to 1 odds.. yet, I am not sure..

It can be difficult to attempt to assign these kinds of crazy possibilities that are not totally crazy but still seem like long shots that are not long shots.

We most likely had some periods of BTC price performance that skipped over quite large sections of BTC prices in the past, but then usually, at some point, there will end up being some retracing, later down the road... not always but frequently, and we could probably fish through some historical examples of such quickly going up and then later retracing.. such as, perhaps, in early 2013, going from $30 to supra $80--- and then never really coming back into that range,  . ..   Yet.. I am not sure?   

Edit:  I just did a quick search for BTC spot prices (not weighted traded volume) through late February 2013 and early March 2013 (which was before my time), it seems that it took 2-3 weeks to go from $30 to $80 - and there was not very much retracing.. just maybe a few days in the $60s and $70s in early July 2013. ... so there was not a whole hell of a lot of retracing $30 to $80..  .. and likely we could find some other examples of sparse amounts of retracing between $100 and $200 too.. pass through mostly in late 2013.. and barely have some days of retracing that fell below $200 in early 2015.  I was around for the 2015 retracing into the sub $200s and they did not last too long or even go very much below $200 for very long..

So yeah, upper $72k-ish to $80k (a bit less than 10% - what is 10% in the scheme of things?)  could end up being one of those kinds of places that ends up having little to no retracing, and it is not even as large of a percentage change, as compared to going from $30 to $80 (about 2.7x) or looking at the separate one of going up from $100 to $200 (a 2x)... even though some of the sub-amounts did end up getting filled in for a day or two here and there on the way up.. and yeah, one thing is spikes of BTC spot prices and another thing is price based on daily weighted volume. which would have to have more trade volume and substance within whatever range for the price for the day to stick, and then to end up with potentially relevant comparables..  based on the weight traded price rather than spot price.

So.. yeah we are looking forward to tomorrow and the sentencing of Sam.. and so quite a bit of curiosities regarding what ends up being the sentence.

Don't get me wrong, but I don't really like Sam, and I think that he is pretty damned close to a total fraud, yet I think that Professor Jonathan Lipson makes a lot of very good points about how Sam's law firm (Sullivan & Cromwell and Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan) (and perhaps John J. Ray, too?) pretty much threw Sam under the bus and engaged in a lot of problematic behaviors when they both took over the FTX and also failed/refused to allow for an examiner, until recently.. and so now that an examiner is going to be assigned to FTX, that same lawfirm is likely going to continue to cover up the extent to which they were responsible for some of the problems with FTX.. and they ended up engaging in a cover-up...

What a bunch of bullshit that there are so many injustices in the world, and sure probably Sam is quite culpable, but there may well be several of the lawfirm folks and perhaps the trustee who are also criminally responsible too.

You can listen to Jonathan Lipson discuss these matters for about 45 minutes in Michael Lewis's Judging Sam podcast.

Well of course there are advantages in being more aggressive and also as aggressive as you are able to be, but if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week for the next 10 years, you would have had ONLY invested $5,200 after 10 years and you are not going to be coming even close to accumulating a whole coin... yet there is no need to think in terms of whether you can get a whole, coin and you have to attempt to be realistic within the terms of your own personal circumstances.. including finances and psychology.

A similar thing was true 10 years ago.  Bitcoin had a much worse reputation and likely a way weaker investment thesis than it does right now.. except for those who really were either luckily in the right place at the right time or they were able to some how figure out how to start to get their hands on BTC and so even the fairly whimpy investors from  more than 10 years ago were able to profit stupendously from their investment in bitcoin, as long as they mostly continued to invest and they were able to mostly hold through the whole period and perhaps just keep continuously buying..

Surely bitcoin is more available now days than it was 10 years ago.... and surely bitcoin's investment thesis is a lot stronger these days, even if some of the upside price potential might not be as great, it still remains a great place to put you extra money, even if you are ONLY able to accomplish relatively whimpy amounts, such as $10 per week and there are needs to try to stay within your own budget and not to become preoccupied about whether your opportunity has gone or it is not as good and blah blah blah.. There is no way to turn back the clock, but there is a way to still recognize and appreciate that bitcoin remains a great investment, if not the best investment that is widely available for people of all incomes. .even though geographically some folks might have to search out avenues in terms of how to get their bitcoin. 

At the same time, right now, there are still a lot of folks who have hardly any clues about bitcoin  or about how to get bitcoin within their own country.. and trying to figure out where there might be some channels to get BTC within their jurisdiction... so then one thing is if the BTC is available and then other thing is to be able to set aside whatever they are able to do.. and yeah, that could be $100 per week or it might well be in the $10 to $20 range, yet we cannot expect them to be able to invest more than they are able to, even though there likely are a lot of ways that normal folks (normies) can begin to arrange their finances in ways that they have more disposable income in ways of either increasing their income or lowering their expenses.

That mostly makes sense, even though for me it still remains difficult to stop watching... even though it also seems difficult to get overly excited about movements within the current zone..

just moving through this don't wake me up zone, previously known as no man's land, seems to be taking longer than expected, but the thesis of no man's land still seems to underly it and would not get broken until at least some dip below $55k - and gosh even getting to $55k, might not break the underlying thesis of no man's land, either.. - and not that I am even saying that $55k is very likely at all, even though we know that a lot of shocking things can end up being possible and also end up playing out.. and maybe sometimes very extreme measures and bold plays are the ONLY ways to really get the weak hands to sell with passion, while at the same time, the downity runs a lot of risk.. the risk that the  price does not stay down long enough for the downward manipulators to get many if any of their coins back.

I still am expecting some resistance somewhere prior to $100k, and I had been using $94k as my tentative thinking on the possibility of resistance, if any... and so yeah, maybe I am also working somewhat with the rule of 5s too... since maybe even getting above the mid-point might cause some inevitability of pushing through.. yet we might be getting ahead of ourselves, because we likely  realize if the BTC price shot up to $80k in the coming week or two, we may well be just fine, but if it shot up to $94k in the next week or two, then that might be too far too fast..

so I hate to try to figure out too many legs at a time, even though I think that there should be a bit of a gravitation towards the $120k to $180k price range, merely to accommodate the seemingly new buyer types that seem to be entering through the BTC spot ETFs.... and yeah, I am not even saying that $120k to $180k would be stopping points.. but I am saying that based on current conditions, they seem to be largely points of reassessment..and we likely would be able to see if BTC's getting to that price range might help to free up enough BTC supply to satisfy the additional demand that currently seems to be coming into BTClandia...