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Yes, visiting the above link provides more people urgently asking the same question -- there are 0 answers there, unfortunately.
Tycho?
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Well, this isn't early June, this is late June  BTC isn't $30 anymore; we've had a couple difficulty resets. The 5830, for example, has gone from a $12 a day card to $2 + change as of this Friday/Saturday when difficulty resets again. I was honestly browsing NewEgg just last night wondering if I should get any more cards -- I have open slots -- but I decided that right now I need to make some of my initial investment back. The time to expand is pretty much over, except for maybe "deals" such as used cards. I'm serious. If NewEgg brought in a couple hundred Sapphire 5830's tomorrow morning for $110 + free shipping, would I buy? I really think I wouldn't. Maybe I'd pick up one; who knows. But it would take 40-50 days for it to pay for itself after this Friday, which is the soonest I'd be able to get the card. If I had started mining any sooner than I did, I might be in a better position to expand. |
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Are you sure?
What, do you live on a government-subsidized Indian reservation or something?
Seriously -- 3 cents is too low. Are you sure that's "power cost" plus "generation & transmission"?
Just subtract the customer/statement fee (usually a fixed amount) from your last bill, and divide that by the number of kilowatts you used.
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Me too. I mean, there have been about 4 or 5 delays so far, and we're basically where we were on Sunday afternoon (in America). Mt. Gox is down; saying they're working on it, asking for patience. It's now the wee hours of Tuesday on the East Coast.
The only difference between now and then? Tradehill re-opened, and some trading is being done there. While it's good that SOME trading can continue, the fact is that many people have LOTS OF RESOURCES tied up at Mt. Gox, so the real action won't begin until A) they open and B) they resume trading.
The longer the exchange is down, the greater the loss of confidence and the greater the initial bloodbath -- and long-term damage to Mt. Gox and even Bitcoin -- will be.
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It's kind of disturbing that they aren't open yet -- it's like they're stalling for time or something.
Do they have the money to pay out when everyone logs in and tries to withdraw their funds/BTC?
A bit worrisome... I wish things were happening more on schedule...it would inspire a lot more confidence.
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That was probably the worst move of MtGox and Britcoin. You don't go to the LE, LE comes to you.
You hire lawyers, not fill job applications for weasel.
What was that idea all about?
"Hello dear Feds, I'm M'Tux, had watch too many movies and my dream is to become a weasel. Drop by anytime for an open database party."?!
I'm pretty sure you step on too many toes with that idea. Don't know if all this mess is related, but might well be.
Really got me astonished when I saw it on the news.
Would you be so kind as to translate this -- say, into English? I don't understand 90% of what you just said -- I feel like I came in to the middle of a conversation. Thank you, Matthew |
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From Mt. Gox:
Account recovery page will be up tomorrow morning (Japan time)
Referring to TODAY, of course.
Only one problem -- it's 12:20 PM in Japan right now, and still no Mt. Gox Account Recovery page!
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Where I live, there are only two options: Wal-mart and H-E-B. H-E-B totally dominates around here, so all the other guys pulled out of San Antonio years ago.
Wal-mart is a few cents cheaper (sometimes) and you have to wait in long lines, since they are too darn cheap to pay a few more minimum wage employees to man the checkout lines. And they keep the air conditioning at 85 degrees so you sweat while you shop.
So we prefer H-E-B.
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It sure seems like more cards are coming online every day, quite a while after the $30 BTC days.
I guess it's possible that not everyone gets cards mining as fast as me...but still! A couple weeks? A few weeks?
When was it last $30? That seems like forever ago.
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Ok...8 days...4 days....1 day...constant difficulty increase!
Still, troll, what's the exchange rate? What's the pool like? Are you mining bitcoin? Are you mining namecoin? Are you mining newcoin? Are you playing COD4 on awesome?
A card is still worth a card, troll.
I know you are but what am I  What are we, in 3rd grade? Of course, you were probably in 3rd grade when Call of Duty was first released... |
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Those are for arguments sake. In reality, expect difficulty rises at least every 14 days or more often.
Try 8 days -- that's been the reality for some time now... |
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Who's protecting him?
Certainly not me.
Matthew
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Assuming 300mhash/s, bitcoin price of $17 and difficulty of 877k, a 5830 will create ~$188 per month at current difficulty (wont last that long - just an example), $141 per month at the next difficulty level, and about $103 per month at 1,500,000 difficulty.
If you buy today, it will pay itself off if you bought at $109 or even $160. More so if BTC price rises. While no difficulty level at this point will generally last a month (2 weeks or less actually), the rises aren't steep enough to make mining unprofitable. Even after you gain back 100% of the buy price at 1,5m difficulty, you will be gaining $80 per month profit at current prices.
Worth it with a single card? If you are just some random gamer then sure. Don't count on it for a living though. At 2 million difficulty you will be making $50 bucks per month at current prices.
At 3m difficulty, either prices will go up or ~90% of casual miners will give up and thus drive the difficulty down to about 2.4m.
Jack of Diamonds, I respect you for being the FIRST PERSON SO FAR TODAY to actually argue with the numbers themselves, rather than just shooting the messenger. I personally don't think 300 MH/s is a reasonable expectation. Overclocking carries risks, and not every card can reach 300. I had problems at 292 with a Sapphire card (which are the best, BTW). AND if you're overclocking you're also using more than 160W, so the greater electricity usage must be subtracted at the other end. Bitcoins aren't $17 at the moment -- we should go by the current price to be fair. Naysayers could just as easily calculate at $10, while you calculate at $17. Maybe the answer is to show the figures for $10, $15, $20, and $25? Let the would-be buyer make the choice about what he thinks the market will do. So if he loses his money, he'll have no one to blame but himself. But at least he'll know what he's getting himself into. How many BTC are you saying they'll make per day? According to Deepbit's estimator, which I believe takes Pool commissions into account, one would make 0.30 BTC/day at a hashrate of 290MH/s. .30 BTC/day times $17 (a generous figure -- which I'm sure we both hope for. I'm a miner myself) is $5.10 a day. But difficulty will go up before any cards bought today could go online. It will be at least 30% (this much is fact). So your monthly projection is already way off. Monthly projections are *very, very* deceptive because they always fail to take Difficulty increases into consideration. And difficulty increases are a fact of life. It's foolish to deny them or treat them like they don't exist. Matthew |
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These cards make 0.26 BTC per day, assuming a hashrate of 255 MH/s. And the difficulty will go up this Friday or Saturday, so you won't get that.
I'll help you with the math:
.26 BTC/day = today
.195 BTC/day = this Friday (assuming a difficulty increase of 33% -- very likely)
.195 * 14.00 per BTC (pretty generous!)
=$2.73 a day, before expenses
This is a 160W card, which means 3.84 KW per day. At 11 cents per KW/h, that comes out to 42 cents.
= $2.31 per day net profit
So keep that in mind as you bid up this card.
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Is that it?
What a disappointment.
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I'm not telling anyone what to do.
I'm giving them food for thought. "Free information" is quite in the spirit of Bitcoin.
If anyone has a problem with it, it's because their own greed is being thwarted.
All you who are "poisoning the well" by trying to get people to ignore what I have to say -- you're the ones with the agenda. Your information is free sure, but free information != accurate information. Oh yeah? Quote me just ONE THING I SAID that was inaccurate. I'm waiting. Very first post I found by you was inaccurate: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=20066.msg252182#msg252182I publicly admit I don't know for sure; I only know that it's probably not a good idea. It can't do your fan any favors. I might be wrong about the fan lifespan. I am always willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I never want to claim certitude about anything I'm not 100% certain about. (As an aside, I don't think many people on this forum are professional engineers -- most are going by personal or anecdotal evidence at best) I heard many knowledgeable people say that running a fan at 100% will drastically shorten its lifespan. That seems reasonable to me. I certainly would not crank it up that high, just in case. At any rate, I'm not willing to stake my credibility or reputation on this one point. Matthew |
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I might be wrong about the fan lifespan.
I am always willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I never want to claim certitude about anything I'm not 100% certain about.
I heard many knowledgeable people say that running a fan at 100% will drastically shorten its lifespan. That seems reasonable to me. I certainly would not crank it up that high, just in case.
At any rate, I'm not willing to stake my credibility or reputation on this one point.
Matthew
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Which of my concrete facts do you have a problem with? I notice they always want $160 -- not $150, or $170, but $160 -- as in, they'd like to make a nice even "fifty" on their deal.
I've run into several of these guys -- but they (and their would-be customers) need to learn a few things:
1. The 5830 doesn't make BTC fly out of your orifices. It's just a good video card for mining at the $110 price point.
2. The 5830 is one of the best entry-level mining cards there is -- when purchased for $110 or $120.
3. There are other cards that perform as well -- if not better -- at the $160 price point.
...and...pay attention here, boys...
4. The BTC mining market, while still profitable, is hardly in a "manic growth" phase anymore (or at least it shouldn't be). Newsflash! BTC aren't trading for $30 anymore. Anyone who's bought cards for a quick buck is LATE TO THE PARTY. As in, 3 weeks late. And we've had one Difficulty Reset since those halcyon $30 days as well (with another coming at the end of this week!)
5. The 5830 brings in 0.26 BTC per day (going by 255 MH/s). At the current market price of $11/BTC, that's $2.86 BEFORE YOU SUBTRACT ELECTRICITY and any conversion to USD fees. It will take a long time to earn $120 back, nevermind $160. |
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I'm not telling anyone what to do.
I'm giving them food for thought. "Free information" is quite in the spirit of Bitcoin.
If anyone has a problem with it, it's because their own greed is being thwarted.
All you who are "poisoning the well" by trying to get people to ignore what I have to say -- you're the ones with the agenda. Your information is free sure, but free information != accurate information. Oh yeah? Quote me just ONE THING I SAID that was inaccurate. I'm waiting. |
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Can someone here define troll for me? I mean, objectively?
Someone who claims to be a miner, but all of his posts are about how much bitcoin sucks, how it's a "bubble" that is about to burst, how Satoshi is the antichrist and a CIA agent, how the price will never go past $12 and it will just be banned in every country in the world. Not exactly a definition of troll, but at any rate it doesn't describe me. You seem to have me confused with someone else. |
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